Alafia River Minimum Flows and Levels - Southwest Florida Water ...

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Although Hickey (1998) concluded that climate was largely responsible for the decreasing trend, he did note that at the Alafia River at Lithia stream flow decreased about 44 cfs in the period between January 1962 to December 1981. He speculated that these flow declines were the result of mining, but were related to a substantial decrease in water being discharged rather than landscape changes that resulted in hydrologic alterations. Decreases in discharge were accomplished through increased water use efficiency and a decrease in ground water usage. Inspection of water quality data for the river suggests that Hickey (1998) is correct, and flow declines are related to improved efficiency rather than a diminishment of flows resulting from landscape alterations due to mining. In developing a relationship for the expressed purpose of predicting the impact of increasing area of phosphate mined land on stream flow, SDI (2003) assumed that the trend of decreasing stream flow in the South Prong of the Alafia River was related to increasing area of land mined. This assumption was made because mining was essentially the only land use that changed during the time interval investigated. While SDI (2003) assumed that the flow decline was attributable to increases in land area mined for phosphate, this is not the case. Using logic similar to SDI (2003), there should be a steady monotonic decreasing trend in flow with increasing mined area. While mined area in the South Prong above the USGS gage increased substantially between 1972 and 1999 (from 9 to 72%) based on land use maps for this time period (see Figure 2-21), flow remained fairly stable (Kendall's tau was run on mean annual flows for the period 1970 to 1999, and the slope of the Thiel line was –0.1918 with a p value of 0.8028; indicating no trend; see Figure 2-22). 2-49
South Prong Watershed Above USGS Gage 1972 Landcover North Prong Watershed Above USGS Gage 1972 Landcover Wetlands 12% Water 1% Urban 7% Agriculture 19% Uplands 41% Citrus 10% Mined 10% Wetlands 7% Water 4% Urban 15% Agriculture 26% Uplands 25% Citrus 7% Mined 16% South Prong Watershed Above USGS Gage 1990 Landcover Agriculture 9% Citrus 5% Wetlands 13% Water 1% Urban 1% Uplands 8% Mined 63% North Prong Watershed Above USGS Gage 1990 Landcover Water 2% Wetlands 10% Urban 18% Uplands 11% Agriculture 21% Citrus 4% Mined 34% Figure 2-21. Land use in the watershed upstream of USGS gage sites on the South and North Prongs of the Alafia River based on mapping conducted in 1972, 1990 and 1999. 2-50
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Alafia River Minimum Flows and Leve
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Table of Contents Table of Contents
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4.3.1 HEC-RAS Modeling ............
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Table of Figures Figure 1-1. Buildi
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Figure 2-33. Phosphorus concentrati
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Figure 5-12. Habitat Gain/Loss for
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Table 5-2. Mean elevation, local (c
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flow, with the exception that withd
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Acknowledgement The authors would l
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9) Water quality; and 10) Navigatio
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Water Management District typically
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Peace River at Zolfo Springs, FL. s
Page 25 and 26: Period of Record Median Daily Flows
Page 27 and 28: to enhance understanding of histori
Page 29 and 30: River watershed, to the east by the
Page 31 and 32: an adjacent area locally known as t
Page 33 and 34: Water in the surficial aquifer is r
Page 35 and 36: The Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) sy
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2-4. May and September 2001
Page 39 and 40: head differences indicating breache
Page 41 and 42: data (multiple regression) analyses
Page 43 and 44: 2.2 Land Use Changes in the Alafia
Page 45 and 46: Before discussing individual sub-ba
Page 47 and 48: Table 2-2. Land use and land cover
Page 49 and 50: Table 2-3. Land use and land cover
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2-13. 1972 and 1999 Land use
Page 53 and 54: 2.2.4 Lithia Springs Sub-Basin The
Page 55 and 56: 2.3 Hydrology The assessment of min
Page 59 and 60: occurred during the spring were sim
Page 61 and 62: Conversely, since most of the Unite
Page 63 and 64: extending from 1940 to 1969 can be
Page 67 and 68: third highest flow occurred early i
Page 69 and 70: Flow (cfs) Alafia River at Lithia,
Page 71 and 72: 100 North Prong Alafia River at Key
Page 73 and 74: Flow (cfs) South Prong Alafia River
Page 75: Alafia River at Lithia - Water Qual
Page 79 and 80: Comparisons of land use changes and
Page 81 and 82: Comparison of Median Daily Flows fo
Page 83 and 84: Comparisons of Annual 25% Exceedanc
Page 85 and 86: Figure 2-25. Lithia Springs Major b
Page 87 and 88: 2.3.4.3.2 Discharge from Lithia Spr
Page 89 and 90: Relationship Between Lithia Springs
Page 91 and 92: Buckhorn Spring Main Discharge (Wit
Page 93 and 94: versus flow. The third plot typical
Page 95 and 96: Alafia River at Lithia, FL Phosphor
Page 97 and 98: While elevated phosphorus concentra
Page 99 and 100: Peace River at Arcadia, FL 20 Phosp
Page 101 and 102: Alafia River at Lithia, FL Nitrate/
Page 103 and 104: 2.4.2 Potassium and Trend Analysis
Page 105 and 106: Alafia River at Lithia, FL 14 Potas
Page 107 and 108: Table 2-10. Results of Kendall's ta
Page 109 and 110: Chapter 3 Ecological Resources of C
Page 111 and 112: 1) maintenance of minimum water dep
Page 113 and 114: flow regimes and these life history
Page 115 and 116: subsidy of water and nutrients that
Page 117 and 118: Chapter 4 Technical Approach for Es
Page 119 and 120: 4.2.1 HEC-RAS Cross-Sections Cross
Page 121 and 122: PHABSIM analysis required acquisiti
Page 123 and 124: Figure 4-5. Upstream vegetation cro
Page 125 and 126: level, whenever possible. Immature
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major parameter altered during the
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Alafia River - Cross Section 64 - W
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Delphi method lacks the rapid feedb
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TOTAL DAYS OF INUNDATION DURING THE
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Period of Record Median Daily Flows
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Wetted Perimeter - USGS 84.5 - SWFW
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Alafia River Station 91.5 Stage in
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section sites and corresponding flo
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4.9.1.2 Recreational Use Assessment
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Chapter 5 Results and Recommended M
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greater than 25 cfs would inundate
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For the USGS Lithia gage site, the
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40 35 30 25 20 15 10 T20 T21 T27 T3
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Wetted Perimeter (linear feet) 2000
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dominant vegetation zones, mucky so
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5.5.1 Application of PHABSIM for Bl
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5.5.3 Flow Relationships with Woody
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River begins on October 28 and ends
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Table 5-4. Maximum monthly percent-
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5.6.3 Short-Term Compliance Standar
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Table 5-5. Maximum monthly percent-
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5.8 Short-Term Compliance Standard
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Table 5-7. Proposed Minimum Flows f
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Biological Services Program Report
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Jones, G.W., and Upchurch, S.B., 19
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SDI Environmental Services, Inc. 20
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Upchurch, S.B. and J.R. Littlefield
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A Review of “Alafia River Minimum
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The draft report for setting MFLs f
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methodologies, analyses, and conclu
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The SWFWMD has employed a building
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MFLs for the Alafia and Myakka rive
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RALPH PLOTS AND ANALYSES Recent and
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then used to estimate percent of fl
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necessary. Such a framework should
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to use to meet the criteria of no s
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Shaw, D.T., C.N. Dahm, and S.W. Gol
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The District has added to Chapter 4
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Attachment A June 15 th , 2005 Mrs.
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The Kelly (2004) report includes a
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Figure 1. Box-and-whisker plots of
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As shown in Table 1, a nonparametri
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“augmentation” - be performed a
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Estuary Program 'Restoring the Bala
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APPENDIX D - District's response to
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educed by no more than 8 percent on
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sites with comparable temporal reco
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gradually removed (this appears as
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1) The DISTRICT acknowledges the ma
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Mark Hammond, Director, Resource Ma
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Table 1. Mann-Whitney Statistical A
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Comparison of July Rainfall Totals
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