Alafia River Minimum Flows and Levels - Southwest Florida Water ...

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2.2.7 Bell Creek Sub-Basin The Bell Creek sub-basin is 21 square miles (13,490) in area, and is composed of the Bell Creek, Bell Creek Reservoir, Boggy Creek and Pelleham Branch subbasins. In 1972, 46% of this watershed was in uplands or wetlands and 45% was in agricultural uses. The amount of urbanized land increased from 7% to 20% of the sub-basin total between 1972 and 1999, while agricultural usage declined from 45% to 37%. The total acreage in uplands and wetlands has declined slightly from 46% to 42% between 1972 and 1999, with much of the increase in urbanized areas apparently offset by decreases in agricultural lands. Land use maps and tables for this sub-basin are included in the appendix. 2.2.8 Alafia Mainstem Sub-Basin The Alafia Mainstem is defined as that portion of the Alafia River below the confluence of the North and South Prongs which receives direct runoff or runoff from Little Fishhawk Creek or Rice Creek. Its drainage area is 30 square miles (19,309 acres) and accounts for slightly more than 7% of the entire Alafia River watershed. Since 1972, the amount of urbanized land in this sub-basin has increased from 21% to 42%, and agricultural land use in the sub-basin's watershed has declined from a total of 31% to 20%. Uplands and wetlands that totaled 45% of the watershed in 1972 had decreased to 30% of the sub-basin total by 1999. Land use maps and tables for this sub-basin are included in the appendix. 2-27
2.3 Hydrology The assessment of minimum flow and levels for the freshwater segment of the Alafia River was supported by analyses of long-term streamflow records that date to the 1930s. Significant declining trends in flow have been documented or reported by a number of workers (Stoker et al. 1996, Hickey 1998, SDI 2003, Kelly 2004); however, the cause(s) of these declines has been the subject of some debate. Kelly (2004) attributed flow declines in the Alafia River largely to climate, and that is a primary assumption inherent in the minimum flow analyses to follow. Although there has been considerable phosphate mining in the Alafia watershed (especially in the watersheds of the North and South Prongs) and substantial groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer, comparison of river flow declines with neighboring watersheds suggests a similar causative factor for flow declines. Our analyses indicate that flow declines attributed by Stoker et al. (1996) to groundwater withdrawals, and by SDI (2003) to increasing area of mined land are due to another factor, namely the removal or reduction of discharges from the phosphate mining industry. These flow declines actually represent an increase in water use efficiency by the mining industry such that the large volumes of groundwater historically used for ore extraction and processing have been substantially reduced. In response to work done by SDI (2003), we have compared discharge volumes from the watersheds of the South and North Prongs of the Alafia River to demonstrate that similar amounts of water are being discharged from both basins and thus increasing area of mined lands has not lead to substantial nor quantifiable reductions in flow. Kelly (2004) concluded that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; see Enfield et al. 2001) has an important controlling effect on river flow volumes throughout southwest Florida, and is a major factor that must be considered when developing minimum flows and levels (Shaw et al. 2004). This phenomenon is shown to affect the baseline or benchmark period against which flow reductions and MFLs should be judged. 2.3.1 Florida River Flow Patterns and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation "It would be reasonable to assume that given a fairly constant climate, the amount of water flowing down a river's course each year would vary evenly about an average value." (Smith and Stopp 1978) Smith and Stopp's statement reflects the typical paradigm with respect to the impact of climate on river flow. As a result, little attention has been paid to the 2-28
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Alafia River Minimum Flows and Leve
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents Table of Contents
Page 5 and 6: 4.3.1 HEC-RAS Modeling ............
Page 7 and 8: Table of Figures Figure 1-1. Buildi
Page 9 and 10: Figure 2-33. Phosphorus concentrati
Page 11 and 12: Figure 5-12. Habitat Gain/Loss for
Page 13 and 14: Table 5-2. Mean elevation, local (c
Page 15 and 16: flow, with the exception that withd
Page 17 and 18: Acknowledgement The authors would l
Page 19 and 20: 9) Water quality; and 10) Navigatio
Page 21 and 22: Water Management District typically
Page 23 and 24: Peace River at Zolfo Springs, FL. s
Page 25 and 26: Period of Record Median Daily Flows
Page 27 and 28: to enhance understanding of histori
Page 29 and 30: River watershed, to the east by the
Page 31 and 32: an adjacent area locally known as t
Page 33 and 34: Water in the surficial aquifer is r
Page 35 and 36: The Upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) sy
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2-4. May and September 2001
Page 39 and 40: head differences indicating breache
Page 41 and 42: data (multiple regression) analyses
Page 43 and 44: 2.2 Land Use Changes in the Alafia
Page 45 and 46: Before discussing individual sub-ba
Page 47 and 48: Table 2-2. Land use and land cover
Page 49 and 50: Table 2-3. Land use and land cover
Page 51 and 52: Figure 2-13. 1972 and 1999 Land use
Page 53: 2.2.4 Lithia Springs Sub-Basin The
Page 59 and 60: occurred during the spring were sim
Page 61 and 62: Conversely, since most of the Unite
Page 63 and 64: extending from 1940 to 1969 can be
Page 67 and 68: third highest flow occurred early i
Page 69 and 70: Flow (cfs) Alafia River at Lithia,
Page 71 and 72: 100 North Prong Alafia River at Key
Page 73 and 74: Flow (cfs) South Prong Alafia River
Page 75 and 76: Alafia River at Lithia - Water Qual
Page 77 and 78: South Prong Watershed Above USGS Ga
Page 79 and 80: Comparisons of land use changes and
Page 81 and 82: Comparison of Median Daily Flows fo
Page 83 and 84: Comparisons of Annual 25% Exceedanc
Page 85 and 86: Figure 2-25. Lithia Springs Major b
Page 87 and 88: 2.3.4.3.2 Discharge from Lithia Spr
Page 89 and 90: Relationship Between Lithia Springs
Page 91 and 92: Buckhorn Spring Main Discharge (Wit
Page 93 and 94: versus flow. The third plot typical
Page 95 and 96: Alafia River at Lithia, FL Phosphor
Page 97 and 98: While elevated phosphorus concentra
Page 99 and 100: Peace River at Arcadia, FL 20 Phosp
Page 101 and 102: Alafia River at Lithia, FL Nitrate/
Page 103 and 104: 2.4.2 Potassium and Trend Analysis
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Alafia River at Lithia, FL 14 Potas
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Table 2-10. Results of Kendall's ta
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Chapter 3 Ecological Resources of C
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1) maintenance of minimum water dep
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flow regimes and these life history
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subsidy of water and nutrients that
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Chapter 4 Technical Approach for Es
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4.2.1 HEC-RAS Cross-Sections Cross
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PHABSIM analysis required acquisiti
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Figure 4-5. Upstream vegetation cro
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level, whenever possible. Immature
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major parameter altered during the
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Alafia River - Cross Section 64 - W
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Delphi method lacks the rapid feedb
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TOTAL DAYS OF INUNDATION DURING THE
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Period of Record Median Daily Flows
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Wetted Perimeter - USGS 84.5 - SWFW
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Alafia River Station 91.5 Stage in
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section sites and corresponding flo
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4.9.1.2 Recreational Use Assessment
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Chapter 5 Results and Recommended M
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greater than 25 cfs would inundate
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For the USGS Lithia gage site, the
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40 35 30 25 20 15 10 T20 T21 T27 T3
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Wetted Perimeter (linear feet) 2000
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dominant vegetation zones, mucky so
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5.5.1 Application of PHABSIM for Bl
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5.5.3 Flow Relationships with Woody
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River begins on October 28 and ends
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Table 5-4. Maximum monthly percent-
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5.6.3 Short-Term Compliance Standar
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Table 5-5. Maximum monthly percent-
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5.8 Short-Term Compliance Standard
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Table 5-7. Proposed Minimum Flows f
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Biological Services Program Report
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Jones, G.W., and Upchurch, S.B., 19
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SDI Environmental Services, Inc. 20
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Upchurch, S.B. and J.R. Littlefield
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A Review of “Alafia River Minimum
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The draft report for setting MFLs f
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methodologies, analyses, and conclu
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The SWFWMD has employed a building
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MFLs for the Alafia and Myakka rive
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RALPH PLOTS AND ANALYSES Recent and
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then used to estimate percent of fl
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necessary. Such a framework should
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to use to meet the criteria of no s
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Shaw, D.T., C.N. Dahm, and S.W. Gol
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The District has added to Chapter 4
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Attachment A June 15 th , 2005 Mrs.
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The Kelly (2004) report includes a
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Figure 1. Box-and-whisker plots of
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As shown in Table 1, a nonparametri
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“augmentation” - be performed a
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Estuary Program 'Restoring the Bala
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APPENDIX D - District's response to
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educed by no more than 8 percent on
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sites with comparable temporal reco
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gradually removed (this appears as
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1) The DISTRICT acknowledges the ma
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Mark Hammond, Director, Resource Ma
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Table 1. Mann-Whitney Statistical A
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Comparison of July Rainfall Totals
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