Estimation, Evaluation, and Selection of Actuarial Models

2.1. INTRODUCTION 5
Policyholder Time of death Time of surrender
1 0.1
2 4.8 0.5
3 0.8
4 0.8 3.9
5 3.1 1.8
6 1.8
7 2.1
8 2.5
9 2.8
10 2.9 4.6
11 2.9 4.6
12 3.9
13 4.0
14 4.0
15 4.1
16 4.8
17 4.8
18 4.8
19-30
For Data Set D2, only the time of the first event is observed. In addition, there are 10 more
policyholders who were first observed at some time after the policy was issued. The following table
presents the results for all 40 policies. The column headed “First obs.” gives the duration at which
the policy was first observed; the column headed “Last obs.” gives the duration at which the policy
was last observed; and the column headed “Event” is coded “s” for surrender, “d” for death, and
“e” for expiration of the five-year period.
Policy First obs. Last obs. Event Policy First obs. Last obs. Event
1 0 0.1 s 16 0 4.8 d
2 0 0.5 s 17 0 4.8 s
3 0 0.8 s 18 0 4.8 s
4 0 0.8 d 19-30 0 5.0 e
5 0 1.8 s 31 0.3 5.0 e
6 0 1.8 s 32 0.7 5.0 e
7 0 2.1 s 33 1.0 4.1 d
8 0 2.5 s 34 1.8 3.1 d
9 0 2.8 s 35 2.1 3.9 s
10 0 2.9 d 36 2.9 5.0 e
11 0 2.9 d 37 2.9 4.8 s
12 0 3.9 s 38 3.2 4.0 d
13 0 4.0 d 39 3.4 5.0 e
14 0 4.0 s 40 3.9 5.0 e
15 0 4.1 s