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Public Financial Management for PRSP - Deutsches Institut für ...

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Box 10: The <strong>for</strong>mal and in<strong>for</strong>mal institutions affecting budget <strong>for</strong>mulation<br />

Formal institution In<strong>for</strong>mal institution Outcomes<br />

MTEF Stage 1<br />

A resource committee <strong>for</strong>med of the<br />

divisions of the MoF, NSO, RBM, and<br />

MEPD does macro economic modelling<br />

to <strong>for</strong>ecast economic growth and estimate<br />

resources available. The process has<br />

problems: the modelling is done after<br />

budget process has moved to advanced<br />

stages. GDP growth rate is often overestimated.<br />

MRA tends to under-report its<br />

collections or capacity to collect.<br />

MTEF Stage 2<br />

MoF conducts hearings where ministries<br />

and departments present their goals,<br />

objectives and activities and indicate<br />

priorities based on the M<strong>PRSP</strong> and costings.<br />

Donors influence the modeling. Executive would<br />

like to overestimate growth to give a good impression,<br />

enable planning <strong>for</strong> a bigger budget and create<br />

positive expectations among economic agents.<br />

Stakeholders act as if estimates are robust.<br />

An in<strong>for</strong>mal process that ignores the MTEF begins<br />

as line ministries inflate resource bids to MoF to<br />

receive a minimum requirement as it is known that<br />

MoF cuts budget even if appropriate budgets are<br />

submitted.<br />

Due to limited resources, the reallocation is done by<br />

some members of the cabinet, CCE a meets seldomly.<br />

Technocrats know that even if they present<br />

accurate technical proposals, the president and<br />

cabinet may change it.<br />

A budget that is set to overexpend,<br />

and necessitates borrowing.<br />

A budget that reflects political<br />

interests rather than a pro-poor<br />

focus. Some departments get too<br />

big allocations given their contribution<br />

to poverty reduction.

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