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Stefan Leiderer et al. These features are pervasive throughout Malawi’s PFM system and the budget process in particular. The following section discusses them in more detail and shows how they relate to each other. All actors involved in the PFM process contribute to these outcomes to varying degrees and are at the same time its victims. How each of the key areas and factors analysed in the last chapter contributes to this outcome is analysed in Section 7.2. The results of this study are then looked at in the context of recent literature on PFM in general and institutional development and public administration in sub-Saharan Africa in Section 7.3. Section 7.4 concludes the study by looking at the consequences of uncertainty for PFM in Malawi. 7.1 Central features of Malawi’s PFM: uncertainty, ad hoc planning and budgeting and informal practices Uncertainty, an ad hoc mode of planning and budgeting as well as the use of informal practices are common features of PFM in Malawi. The three phenomena are closely linked to each other as shown in this chapter. To make the argument clear, the three analytical concepts are briefly introduced in the next sections. 7.1.1 The overriding feature: systemic uncertainty A very prominent and pervasive finding of this empirical research on PFM in Malawi is a high level of uncertainty, which impacts negatively on PFM at all levels of government. ‘Uncertainty’ is the analytical term chosen by the research team to sum up all evidence and comments collected on this phenomenon. Thus, the term refers to a systemic kind of uncertainty, which. cannot be ascribed to the lack of information or knowledge of individual actors only. Systemic uncertainty is created because the rules, procedures and institutions of a governance system (here: the PFM system of Malawi in its particular context) are not entirely reliable and, therefore, do not provide long-term predictability. At the same time, the actors involved do not receive relevant information timely and systematically. However, these features are preconditions for the establishment of routine standard bureaucratic procedures in an effective and efficient law-based public administration. 126 German Development Institute
Public Financial Management for PRSP Implementation in Malawi According to this analysis, uncertainty has five major dimensions as far as PFM in Malawi is concerned: a) formal rules, b) financial resources, c) roles and responsibilities, d) future political developments and e) the progress of reforms. Together, they form what could be termed an uncertainty pentagon as illustrated in Figure 9. The remainder of this section briefly outlines these five dimensions. Figure 9: The uncertainty pentagon of Malawi’s PFM system Formal Rules Political Future Uncertainty Rules & Responsibilities Reform Processes Financial Resources Source: own illustration Uncertainty with regard to formal rules Uncertainty about formal rules has two aspects. The first stems from deficient information about and/or understanding of formal rules and relates to the content of rules. The second, and probably the more important one with regard to the observed weaknesses of PFM in Malawi is consists in uncertainty about the relevance and reliability of formal rules. This concerns the question for each actor in the PFM system, whether – given the constraints regarding information and financial resources – he or she can fulfil his/her functions according to formal rules and regulations without negative consequences (personally or with respect to the effectiveness of their work) and expect others in the system do so as well. In other words, the critical question is whether the existing formal rules actually serve as a mechanism for “uncer- German Development Institute 127
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Studies Deutsches Institut für Ent
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Preface The present study on ‘Pub
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4 The Case of Malawi 44 4.1 Why Mal
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Bibliography 151 Annexes 157 Tables
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