Energy Handbook 2011 - GBR

P o w e r S u m m i t - T h e E n e r g y H a n d b o o k 2 0 1 1
F o c u s : W i n d P o w e r
incentives, over time that investment
should generate declining pricing for the
inputs to solar and should make solar
more competitive with conventional
power and other renewable energies.”
Japan is already on the brink of grid parity,
having one of the highest retail electricity
prices in the world as well as plenty of
sun. It also has a government which has
been prepared to encourage the use of
solar power with incentives; over more
than five years these have enabled the
buildup of a very large installed base of
solar power. By next year Japanese solar
power will be close to competitive with
retail electricity.
Consulting company McKinsey suggests
that by 2020 solar power will have
reached grid parity in at least ten regions
worldwide. This expectation is based
on the rapid drop in solar costs over
the past two years, which some claim
to be as great as 50 percent, combined
with the enormous amounts currently
being invested in R&D in this globally hot
topic.
R&D Game Changers
There are two technological routes to
widespread grid parity. One is incremental,
with existing silicon-based photovoltaic
technologies steadily improved by, for
instance, the use of cheaper forms of
silicon and more cost-effective methods
of production.
now being employed in the development
of silicon photovoltaic cells may halve
the cost of production. Nanotechnology
involves engineering materials at the
atomic level to deliver a required set of
material properties – in this case the ability
to produce and conduct electricity.
Organic photovoltaics are another potential
game changer. Current technologies
have low efficiencies, in the region of
3–4 percent, but their theoretical limit
is in the region of 50–60 percent. The
manufacturing processes could be much
cheaper than those for silicon-based
cells. The physical flexibility of polymerbased
organic solar cells, in contrast to
their rigid silicon counterparts, opens up
new possibilities for their use.
A Sunny Future
The combination of incremental
improvements and the promise of
potentially game-changing R&D
developments creates an optimistic future
for the solar industry. However, the solar
business needs to feel confident that
financial incentives will remain in place
until the technology is mature.
This leaves a fair amount of political risk
associated with any major investment
in manufacturing solar cells or installing
them on a large scale.
As with many green industries,
jurisdictions around the world are keen
to highlight their commitment to the
cause but temper this enthusiasm with
measures to ensure the creation of green
jobs. This trend has caused protectionist
policies to creep in, which may eventually
undermine the global efficiency of global
solar supply chains.
Wind Power
The world’s first offshore windfarm, consisting of 11 450kw
turbines was created in Vindeby, Denmark in 1991. Twenty
years on, work has already started on London Array, a 1,000MW
project that could eventually power up to 750,000 homes.
Onshore and offshore, the rapid rise of wind turbines is a portent
of change in the global generation mix.
Back in 2006 British economist Royal Society. If the world is to prevent Article by:
Incremental improvements are already
Nicholas Stern, chair of the a surface temperature rise of more than Joseph Hincks
cutting costs by around 10 percent a year.
Grantham Research Institute on 2°C – the so-called safe limit – then it is
Efficiencies, at present between 14 and
Climate Change and the Environment clear that time is of the essence.
Above: Wind
17 percent for commercial silicon-based
at the London School of Economics,
turbines located
solar cells, are also increasing, though the
predicted that a 4°C rise in global surface “No single technology will get us there. at Bockingharde
maximum theoretical efficiency is in the
temperature would place 300m more We have to hit the problem from every Germany; Photo
region of 30 percent.
people at risk of coastal flooding every angle,” says Paul Aston, CEO of Proven courtesy of Vestas
Despite these concerns, the future still
year, induce a 30–50 percent reduction Energy, the UK’s leading manufacturer Wind Systems A/S
Incremental improvements are also seems bright for cheap solar energy. The
being achieved in many manufacturing lowest-cost producers should soon be
in water availability in southern Africa and of small wind turbines. “There’s an old
aspects that are being accompanied able to compete without subsidy against
the Mediterranean, cut African agricultural manufacturing truism: it’s simpler to get
by significant reductions in system and high-priced competition in sunny regions.
yields by 15–35 percent, and place 20– better by a little bit at lots of things than
installation costs.
50 percent of the world’s animal and hugely by one thing.” Nuclear, biomass,
In the very near future there may be no
plant species at risk of extinction. Revised marine, and traditional hydro may all
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The second, revolutionary, route will
involve completely new technologies, the
“game changers” that would bring about
a paradigm shift in the economics of solar
power. For example, nanotechnology
need for any need for green justification
for a solar investment. If solar cells’
manufacturing costs keep falling as
anticipated, the geographic spread of
grid-parity solar will become ever larger.
predictions in the run up to 2010’s Mexico
climate conference described even direr
consequences. A 4°C rise could occur as
early as 2060 in a worst-case scenario,
according to research published by the
have a part to play in creating a lowcarbon
world but, truisms aside, solar
and wind energy are increasingly being
mooted as the most viable solutions for
the immediate future.
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