Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

almost verbatim. The third threat, though present in
the old doctrine, seems to signal concern that an enemy
may try to establish and train illegal armed formations
on Russian territory. However, the fourth and
fifth threats are new and, in terms of the latter, while
the doctrine does not explicitly mention China, which
is taboo in Russian security documents, it might reflect
growing concern in Moscow over military exercises
conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA),
that appear to have rehearsed future Chinese military
intervention in Russia and Central Asia. 55 Thus, as the
military doctrine outlines the dangers and threats facing
the Russian state, these are often contradictory,
give rise to questions concerning their order of importance,
countermand other strategic planning documents
such as the Foreign Policy Concept 2008 or the
NSS 2009, and are so loosely framed as to appear nebulous.
NATO is represented as a danger and its global
functions decried, while the same doctrine advocates
a much firmer version of Article 5 in relation to the
Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization
(CSTO) and, in its list of multilateral organizations
with which to pursue cooperation, mentions NATO
(albeit in last place after the CSTO, Commonwealth
of Independent States [CIS], Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe [OSCE], Shanghai Cooperation
Organization [SCO] and the European Union
[EU]) (Section III.19.e). 56
Lengthy Gestation Period: Infighting, Military
Reform and Other Factors.
The terrorist attacks on New York and Washington
on September 11, 2001 (9/11), followed by the global
war on terrorism, and intervention in Afghanistan
and Iraq, combined with the progress of the second
60