Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

WMD proliferation and related technology and the
violation of international treaties and agreements.
The first of these could be explained by reference to
North Korea and possibly Iran, while the latter seems
linked to the abrogation of the 1972 ABM (antiballistic
missile) Treaty and the collapse of the Conventional
Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. The danger posed by
the use of military force near Russia in violation of the
UN Charter follows a similar formula used in the old
doctrine. Finally, the references to interfaith tension
and international armed radical groups must surely
have Afghanistan in mind. Internal dangers relate to
separatism and terrorism mainly in the North Caucasus,
as well as possible attempts to penetrate information
security.
The main military threats stem from a drastic deterioration
in the (interstate) military-political situation
resulting in escalation to the use of military force;
impeding the functioning of command and control
systems in the country; disrupting the functioning of
the Strategic Rocket Forces, missile early warning systems,
space-based monitoring systems, nuclear weapons
storage facilities, and other potentially hazardous
facilities; forming and training illegal armed formations
on Russian territory or on the territory of its allies
or contiguous state; demonstrations of military
force during military exercises on the territories of
states contiguous with Russia; and, finally, increased
activity on the part of armed forces of individual states
or group of states involving partial or complete mobilization
and the transitioning of the states’ organs of
state and command and control to wartime conditions
(Section II.10.a-e). 54
The first of these threats does not appear in the 2000
doctrine, while the second follows the earlier formula
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