Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

44. See George Perkovich, “After Prague: What’s Next
for Arms Control?” International Herald Tribune, April 7, 2010,
available from www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.
cfm?fa=view&id=40532.
45. On Iran’s progress toward the capability for nuclear weaponization
and related issues, see Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Potential:
A Joint Threat Assessment by U.S. and Russian Technical Experts,
New York: East-West Institute, May 2009, available from www.
ewi.info; and “Iran’s Nuclear Timetable,” Iran Watch, updated February
23, 2010, and regularly, available from www.iranwatch.org/
ourpubs/articles/iranucleartimetable.html. For possible scenarios if
diplomacy fails, see Anthony Cordesman, Iran, Israel and the Effects
of a Nuclear Conflict in the Middle East, Washington, DC: Center
for Strategic and International Studies, June 1, 2009, esp. pp.
5-8 and 32-46. On North Korea, see Leon V. Sigal, “Let’s Make
a Deal,” The American Interest Magazine, January-February 2010,
available from the-american-interest.com/article-bd.cfm?piece=767;
and Andrew Scobell and John M. Sanford, North Korea’s Military
Threat: Pyongyang’s Conventional Forces, Weapons of Mass Destruction,
and Ballistic Missiles, Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College,
Strategic Studies Institute, April 2007.
46. Henry Sokolski, “Moving Toward Zero and Armageddon?”
Chap. 5, in Sokolski, ed., Reviewing the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army
War College, May 2010, pp. 77-101, citation from p. 87.
47. For possible dangers and pathways to nuclear first use, see
George H. Quester, Nuclear First Strike: Consequences of a Broken
Taboo, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006. On
the concept of a nuclear taboo, see Nina Tannenwald, The Nuclear
Taboo: The United States and the Non-Use of Nuclear Weapons Since
1945, Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007, esp. pp.
327-360.
48. See Graham Allison, Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable
Catastrophe, New York: Henry Holt, Times Books, 2004,
pp. 61-63.
49. For informative discussion on this point, see Blank, Russia
and Arms Control; and Joseph Cirincione, Bomb Scare: The History
456