Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Medvedev, and the Russian Military,” Chap. 12, in Stephen K. Wegren and Dale R. Herspring, eds., After Putin’s Russia: Past Imperfect, Future Uncertain, Fourth Ed., Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2010, pp. 265-290. 21. Jacob W. Kipp, “Russia’s Nuclear Posture and the Threat That Dare not Speak Its Name,” paper presented at conference on “Strategy and Doctrine in Russian Security Policy,” Ft. McNair, National Defense University, Washington, DC, June 28, 2010, p. 5. 22. I gratefully acknowledge Dale Herspring for insights into this issue. He is not responsible for arguments here. See also, on the seriousness of Russian military reform, Keir Giles, “The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation 2010,” NATO Research Review, Rome, Italy: NATO Defense College, February, 2010, esp. p. 3. 23. Roger N. McDermott, “Russia’s Conventional Armed Forces, Reform and Nuclear Posture to 2020,” paper presented at conference on “Strategy and Doctrine in Russian Security Policy,” Ft. McNair, National Defense University, Washington, DC, June 28, 2010. 24. Projections suggest that between now and 2025, Russia’s pool of draft age manpower will decline at an even faster rate than the rate for the general population. The implications of this for the size and composition of Russia’s future forces are traced in Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Lowell H. Schwartz, and Catherine Yusupov, Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications, Santa Monica, CA; RAND, 2009, pp. 145-151. 25. For an assessment of the 2010 doctrine on this point, see Nikolai Sokov, “The New, 2010 Russian Military Doctrine: The Nuclear Angle,” Monterey, CA: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, February 5, 2010, available from cns.miis.edu/stories/100205_russian_nuclear_doctrine. htm. See also, The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation, available from www.Kremlin.ru, February 5, 2010, in Johnson’s Russia List 2010, #35, February 19, 2010, available from davidjohnson@ starpower.net. 26. Sokov, “Nuclear Weapons in Russian Security Strategy,” p. 5. 453
27. According to some experts, Russians do not have a unified view of their foreign policy objectives, but a broad consensus emerged during Putin’s second term about Russia’s foreign policy goals. See Oliker et. al., Russian Foreign Policy, pp. 83-138, esp. p. 87. See also Anders Aslund and Andrew Kutchins, The Russia Balance Sheet, Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics and Center for Strategic and International Studies, April, 2009; and Stephen J. Blank, Russia and Arms Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration? Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, March 2009, for additional perspective on Russian objectives pertinent to national security and nuclear arms control. 28. See “Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Russia’s New Foreign Policy Doctrine,” introduction by Vladimir Frolov, in Russia Profile, May 21, 2010, available from www.russiaprofile.org, in Johnson’s Russia List 2010, #101, May 24, 2010, available from davidjohnson@starpower.net. 29. Ibid. 30. Trenin, quoted in Frolov et al., Russia Profile, May 24, 2010. 31. Tsygankov commentary in “Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Russia’s New Foreign Policy Doctrine,” introduction by Vladimir Frolov, in Russia Profile, May 21, 2010, available from www.russiaprofile.org, in Johnson’s Russia List 2010, #101, May 24, 2010, available from davidjohnson@starpower.net. 32. Lozansky commentary in Ibid. 33. Blank commentary in Ibid. 34. For an expert assessment, see Malcolm Chalmers and Simon Lunn, NATO’s Tactical Nuclear Dilemma, London, UK: Royal United Services Institute, Occasional Paper, March 2010, available from www.rusi.org. Pertinent historical and technical background is given in Hans M. Kristensen, U.S Nuclear Weapons in Europe: A Review of Post-Cold War Policy, Force Levels, and War Planning, Washington, DC: Natural Resources Defense Council, February 2005. 454
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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Page 428 and 429: CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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Page 458 and 459: CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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Page 472 and 473: Russian foreign policy commentary o
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Page 478 and 479: By the spring of 2009, a number of
Page 480 and 481: structures, early warning systems,
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Page 490 and 491: There were, of course, all sorts of
Page 492 and 493: Australian experts concluded was fi
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Page 510 and 511: 27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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