Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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ty,” Opening Statement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Washington, DC, June 15, 2010, available from www.state. gov/t/vci/rls/143159.htm. 3. Peter Baker, “Russia and U.S. Sign Nuclear Arms Reduction Pact,” New York Times, April 8, 2010, available from www. nytimes.com/2010/04/09/world/europe/09prexy.html; and “Obama, Medvedev sign historic arms deal,” Associated Press, April 8, 2010, available from www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36254613/ns/politicswhite_house/print. For expert analysis and projections, see Pavel Podvig, “New START Treaty in Numbers,” from his blog, Russian strategic nuclear forces, April 9, 2010, available from russianforces. org/blog/2010/03/new_start_treaty_in_numbers.shtml. 4. The text of the New START treaty appears in Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, Washington, DC: U.S. Department of State, April 8, 2010, available from www.state.gov/documents/organization/140035. pdf. Contrasting appraisals of New START appear in Steven Pifer, “New START: Good News for U.S. Security,” Arms Control Today, May 2010, available from www.armscontrol.org/print/4209; Keith B. Payne, “Evaluating the U.S.-Russian Nuclear Deal,” Wall Street Journal, April 8, 2010, in Johnson’s Russia List 2010, #69, April 8, 2010, available from davidjohnson@starpower.net; Jonathan Schell, “Nuclear balance of terror must end,” CNN, April 8, 2010, in Johnson’s Russia List 2010, #69, April 8, 2010, davidjohnson@ starpower.net; and Alexander Golts, “An Illusory New START,” Moscow Times, March 30, 2010, in Johnson’s Russia List 2010, #62, March 30, 2010, available from davidjohnson@starpower.net. 5. On current and prospective U.S. missile defense programs, see Unclassified Statement of Lieutenant General Patrick J. O’Reilly, Director, Missile Defense Agency, before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Regarding the Fiscal Year 2011 Missile Defense Programs, Washington, DC: House Armed Services Committee, U.S. House of Representatives, April 15, 2010, esp. p. 18 on absence of New START constraints. See also Walter Pincus, “Arms treaty shouldn’t constrain U.S. missile defenses,” Washington Post, April 20, 2010, p. A13, available from www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ content/article/2010/04/19/AR2010041904602_. 449
6. Robert M. Gates, “The Case for the New START Treaty,” Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2010, in Johnson’s Russia List 2010, #94, May 13, 2010, available from davidjohnson@starpower.net. 7. An informative discussion of this appears in Alexei Arbatov, “The New START—A View from Moscow,” question and answer format, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 6, 2010, available from www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=40506. 8. Pavel Felgenhauer, “The Bulava Blunder,” Novaya Gazeta, July 25, 2009, in Johnson’s Russia List 2009, #140, July 27, 2009, available from davidjohnson@starpower.net. According to Alexander Golts, the “Bulava fiasco” is more a matter of managerial incompetence than it is a technological failure. Golts, “The High Price of Feeding Russia’s Ambitions,” Moscow Times, July 28, 2009, in Johnson’s Russia List 2009, #141, July 28, 2009, available from davidjohnson@starpower.net. 9. Robert M. Gates, “A Better Missile Defense for a Safer Europe,” New York Times, September 19, 2009, available from www. nytimes.com/2009/09/20/opinion/20gates.html. The Obama Phased Adaptive Approach to missile defense will retain and improve some technologies deployed by the George W. Bush administration, but shift emphasis to other interceptors supported by improved battle management, command-control-communications (BMC3) systems, and launch detection and tracking. See Unclassified Statement of Lieutenant General Patrick J. O’Reilly, USA, Director, Missile Defense Agency, Before the House Armed Services Committee, Washington, DC: U.S. House of Representatives, House Armed Services Committee, October 1, 2009. Prompt reactions to the Obama missile defense plan include George Friedman, “The BMD Decision and the Global System,” STRATFOR, September 21, 2009, in Johnson’s Russia List 2009, #175, September 22, 2009, available from davidjohnson@starpower.net; Alexander Golts, “Calling Moscow’s Bluff on Missile Defense,” Moscow Times, September 22, 2009, in Johnson’s Russia List 2009, #175, September 22, 2009, available from davidjohnson@starpower.net; Alexander L. Pikayev, “For the Benefit of All,” Moscow Times, September 21, 2009, in Johnson’s Russia List 2009, #174, September 21, 2009, available from davidjohnson@starpower.net; and Strobe 450
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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Page 428 and 429: CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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Page 448 and 449: Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Page 452 and 453: Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
Page 454 and 455: The results summarized in Figures 9
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Page 458 and 459: CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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Page 464 and 465: 20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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Page 468 and 469: and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
Page 470 and 471: CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
Page 472 and 473: Russian foreign policy commentary o
Page 474 and 475: jor component of Russia’s geostra
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Page 478 and 479: By the spring of 2009, a number of
Page 480 and 481: structures, early warning systems,
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Page 490 and 491: There were, of course, all sorts of
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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