Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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available from www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/world/europe/15ihtmissile.3.15333406.html. 41. “Rice to Visit Poland to Sign Missile Shield Deal,” Agence- France Press, August 17, 2008, available from afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gLzVO9YmRVo2zJXJwfNJ0XQRZQWg. 42. “Russian Missiles Near Poland to ‘Offset’ U.S. Shield - NATO Envoy,” RIA Novosti, November 5, 2008, available from en.rian.ru/russia/20081105/118146144.html. 43. “Russia’s Iskander Best Answer to U.S. Missiles in Europe - Analyst,” RIA Novosti, November 5, 2008, available from en.rian. ru/russia/20081105/118140039.html. 44. “Russian Missile Move Worries NATO Member Estonia,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 20, 2010, available from www.rferl.org/content/Russian_Missile_Move_Worries_NATO_ Member_Estonia/2105076.html. 45. Cited in “Russia to Buy 17 ICBMs in 2007 - Minister,” RIA Novosti, November 16, 2006, available from en.rian.ru/russia/20061116/55705839.html. 46. For a probably exaggerated assessment of the U.S. capacity to launch an effective first strike against Russia and China, see Kier A. Leiber and Daryl G. Press, “The Rise of U.S. Nuclear Primacy,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, No. 2, March-April 2006, pp. 42-54; and Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press, “The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of U.S. Primacy,” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 4, Spring 2006, pp. 7-44. Russian responses to their assessment are surveyed in Arthur Blinov and Igor Plugatarev, “Guaranteed Unilateral Destruction,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta, March 23, 2006; and Pavel K. Baev, “Moscow Puts PR Spin on its Shrinking Nuclear Arsenal,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, April 17, 2006, available from www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=31591. Other critiques appeared in the September-October 2006 issue of Foreign Affairs. 47. “Rossii Nyzhno Dat’ Pravo na Primenenie Ydernogo Oryzhiya – Expert,” RIA Novosti, March 12, 2008, available from nuclearno.ru/text.asp?12665. 409
48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivanov, and Anton Khodasevich, “Novaya strategicheskaya initsiativa,” Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June 26, 2006. 49. According to one authoritative source, “De-escalation of aggression” is defined as “forcing the enemy to halt military action by threat to deliver or by actual delivery of strikes of varying intensity with reliance on conventional and (or) nuclear weapons.” Sergey Ivanov, Priority Tasks of the Development of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia: Ministry of Defense, October 2, 2003, p. 70, available from www.pircenter.org/index.php?id=184. 50. “The Basic Provisions of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation,” adopted by Edict No. 1833 of the President of the Russian Federation, November 2, 1993, available from www. fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/russia-mil-doc.html. 51. Aleksei Arbatov, “Tactical Nuclear Weapons - Problems and Prospects,” Voenno-promyshlennyi kuryer, May 5, 2010, available from www.carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=40747. 52. This debate is reviewed in Nikolai Sokov, “Modernization of Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Russia: The Emerging New Posture,” May 1998, available from www.nti.org/db/nisprofs/over/ modern.htm; and Frank Umbach, Future Military Reform: Russia’s Nuclear & Conventional Forces, Camberley, UK: Conflict Studies Research Centre, Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, August 2002, pp. 11-14. 53. “Transcript of the Press Conference for the Russian and Foreign Media,” January 31, 2006, available from www.kremlin.ru/ eng/speeches/2006/01/31/0953_type82915type82917_100901.shtml. In an interview with NBC News, Putin likewise observed: “How can we talk about ensuring global security and address the issues of nonproliferation and disarmament if we do not include Russia, which is one of the biggest nuclear powers?” available from kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2006/07/12/1443_type82916_108525.shtml. 54. “Opening Remarks at Meeting with Heads of the Russian Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Energy Complexes,” Novo- 410
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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Page 448 and 449: Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Page 458 and 459: CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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