Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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23. See for example: “The National Security Concept of the Russian Federation,” adopted by the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 1300 of December 17, 1997, in the “Edited Version of the Presidential Decree No. 24 of January 10, 2000,” available from www.iss.niiit.ru/doktrins/doktr01.htm; and “The Law of the Russian Federation on Defense,” adopted by the State Duma on April 24, 1996, and Approved by the Federation Council on May 15, 1996, available from www.hro.org/docs/rlex/defence/index.htm. 24. Sergey Ivanov, “Military Doctrine: Russia Must Be Strong,” Vedomosti, January 12, 2006. 25. Sergey Ivanov, “Russia Reserves the Right to Preemptive Strikes,” Moscow Agentstvo Voennykh Novostei, February 7, 2007. 26. “Sergey Ivanov raskryl britantsam tseli I zadachi rossiyskikh yadernykh sil,” July 14, 2004, available from www.rol.ru/ news/misc/news/04/07/14_010.htm. 27. Viktor Litovkin, “General Gareyev: Russia Changing its Military Doctrine,” RIA Novosti, Part 2, January 18, 2007, available from en.rian.ru/analysis/20070118/59307373.html. See also Makhmut Gareyev, “New Conditions—New Military Doctrine,” Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, February 2, 2007. 28. “Strategiya natsional’noy bezopasnosti RF do 2020 goda,” May 12, 2009, available from www.nsnbr.ru/strategiya_nb_rf.html. 29. Vera Sitnina, “Voina Mozhet Vspykhnut Vnezapno,” Vremya Novostei, September 29, 2008. 30. Viktor Myasnikov, “Starie osnovi novoy doktriny,” Nezavisimaya gazeta, December 19, 2006. 31. Alexei Arbatov, “Advancing U.S.-Russian Security Cooperation,” transcript of presentation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 1, 2010, available from www.carnegieendowment.org/files/0402carnegie-russia1.pdf. 407
32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimissile Plan By U.S. Strains Ties With Russia,” Washington Post, February 21, 2007, available from www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/20/ AR2007022001431.html?nav=rss_world/Europe. 33. Vladimir Socor, “Ukraine’s Top Three Leaders Request NATO Membership Action Plan,” January 18, 2008, available from www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news% 5D=33304. 34. Luke Harding, “Putin Issues Nuclear Threat to Ukraine over Plan to Host US Shield,” The Guardian, February 13, 2008, available from www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/13/russia.putin. 35. Cited in “Russia Might Target U.S. Missile Defenses in Europe,” Global Security Newswire, September 21, 2006, available from 204.71.60.35/d_newswire/issues/2006/9/21/129e3869-dfe9-4e90- bd29-da75bf307a26.html. 36. Nikolai Sokov, “Russia’s Newest Submarine-Launched Missile Fails in Tests, but Tests of Other Systems Succeed: Defense Minister Ivanov Raises Questions on Status of Russian Sea-Based Tactical Nuclear Weapons,” WMD Insights, No. 10, November 2006, pp. 30-31; and Vladimir Mukhin, “Bulava kak zerkalo oboronki” (“Bulava is Like a Defense Circle”), Nezavisimaya Gazeta, September 12, 2006. 37. “Russia Could Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons to Defeat U.S. Missile Defenses in Europe, Experts Say,” Global Security Newswire, September 22, 2006, available from www.nti.org/d_ newswire/issues/2006_9_22.html. 38. “Deployment of U.S. Missile Defense in Europe Is Threat to Russia—Military Chief,” October 18, 2006, available from www. mosnews.com/news/2006/10/18/usthreat.shtml. 39. “Russia Could Target Missiles at Sites in Central Europe,” RIA Novosti, September 10, 2008, available from en.rian.ru/russia/20080910/116678626.html. 40. Thom Shanker and Nicholas Kulish, “Poland-U.S. Missile Deal Draws Anger from Russia,” New York Times, August 15, 2008, 408
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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Page 377 and 378: Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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Page 399 and 400: Later that year, Putin told leading
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Page 411 and 412: Any proposals for increased transpa
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Page 421 and 422: 48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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Page 428 and 429: CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
Page 430 and 431: number of launchers to a maximum of
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Page 436 and 437: and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
Page 438 and 439: war. The conflict also served as a
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Page 446 and 447: linear to nonlinear strategies for
Page 448 and 449: Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
Page 450 and 451: Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
Page 452 and 453: Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
Page 454 and 455: The results summarized in Figures 9
Page 456 and 457: intended as predictions of actual f
Page 458 and 459: CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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Page 464 and 465: 20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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