Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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Taiwan Strait and the Future of China’s No-First-Use Nuclear Policy,” Comparative Strategy, Vol. XXVII, No. 2, March-April, 2008, pp. 164-183. 153. Wortzel; Spencer; Zhang; “Extensive Missile Site in China Revealed by Satellite: Analyst,” Space War, May 15, 2008; “Extensive Nuclear Missile Deployment Are a Discovered in Central Asia,” posted by Hans Kristensen, May 15, 2008, available from www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2208//05/extensive-nuclear-deployment-areadiscovered-in-central-china. 154. “Power Posturing—China’s Tactical Nuclear Stance Comes of Age,” Jane’s Intelligence Review, August 12, 2010, available from www4.janes.com/subscribe/jir/doc_view.jsp?K2DocKey. 155. Moscow, Russia, infox.ru, in Russian, July 8, 2010, FBIS SOV, August 23, 2010; Private conversation with Roger McDermott, August 9, 2010. 156. Aleksandr’ Menshikov, “Problems of Russian Antimissile Defense: What It Can and Should Protect Against, And What It Should Not,” Moscow, Russia, Vozdushno-Kosmicheskaya Oborona, in Russian, August 15, 2004, FBIS SOV, August 15, 2004. 157. Wortzel; Spencer; Zhang. 158. Tony Halpin, “Putin Confronts US With Threat To Arms Pact,” Times Online, October 13, 2007, available from www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article2648440.ece. 159. Demetri Sevastopulo, Neil Buckley, Daniel Dombey, and Jan Cienski,” Russia Threatens To Quit Arms Treaty,” Financial Times, February 15, 2007, available from www.ft.com. 160. Martin Sieff, “Russia Rattles Missile Treaty,” UPI, March 2, 2006. 161. “The ISCIP Analyst,” Vol. XIII, No. 9, March 8, 2007, Boston, MA: Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology, and Policy, Boston University, available from www.bu.edu/iscip. 162. “Press Conference with Political Analyst Alexei Arbatov and Vice President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems Leo- 363
nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Policy,” RIA Novosti, February 6, 2007, available from www.fednews.ru; Alexei Arbatov, “An Unnecessary and Dangerous Step,” Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, No. 7, March, 2007, available from www.america-russia.net/eng/security/143683092. 163. Interfax, February 27, 2006. 164. Nikolai Sokov, “Second Thoughts About a First Strike,” Nonproliferation Review, Vol. XIV, No. 1, March, 2007, p. 141. 165. Keith C. Smith, Russian Energy Politics in the Baltics, Poland, and the Ukraine: A New Stealth Imperialism? Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2004, p. 13. 166. Moscow, Russia, Agentstvo Voyennykh Novostey Internet Version, March 21, 2005, FBIS SOV, March 21, 2005. 167. FBIS SOV, November 17, 2006. 168. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send Him For a Star: A Skif Flew From the North Pole to Kanin Nos.” 169. Steve Gutterman, “Russia Could Use Preemptive Nuclear Strikes,” Associated Press, January 21, 2008. 170. Ibid. 171. Ibid. 172. Wortzel; Spencer; Zhang, pp. 164-183. 173. Eugene Myasnikov, “Russian Perceptions and Prospects for Nuclear Weapons Reductions in Northeast Asia,” Inesap Bulletin, No. 24, 2004, available from www.inesap.org/bulletin24/art05. htm. 174. James Clay Moltz and Alexandre Y. Mansourov, eds., The North Korean Nuclear Program: Security, Strategy and New Perspectives from Russia, New York, NY: Routledge, 2000. 364
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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