Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin, Chief VVS, cited in RIA Novosti, August 11, 2009. 32. Commission on the U.S. Strategic Posture. 33. Stephen Blank, Russia and Arms Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration? Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, March 2009, p. xi. 34. Stephen Blank, “Undeterred: The Return of Nuclear War,” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Vol. I, No. 2, Summer/ Fall 2000, pp. 55-63. 35. NSS. 36. Pavel Podvig, Revolution in Military Affairs: Challenge to Russia’s Security, Paper Presented at the VTT Energy Styx Seminar, Helsinki, Finland, September 4, 200.1 37. Stephen J. Blank, “Russia Challenges the Bush Administration,” Op-Ed, Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, December 2008. 38. Ibid. 291
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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Page 258 and 259: from Alaska, “but they will not b
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Page 262 and 263: 5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
Page 264 and 265: 20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
Page 266 and 267: (“The God of War Does Not Retire
Page 268 and 269: 50. For a recent statement to that
Page 270 and 271: closely fit one of first strike sce
Page 272 and 273: CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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Page 282 and 283: wars. However, given expressions of
Page 284 and 285: equate command and control capabili
Page 286 and 287: weapons. The number of commands and
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Page 290 and 291: the fact that the economy and infra
Page 292 and 293: The threat environment fabricated b
Page 294 and 295: There are aspects to their nuclear
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Page 298 and 299: ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
Page 300 and 301: 8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
Page 304 and 305: CHAPTER 7 RUSSIA AND NUCLEAR WEAPON
Page 306 and 307: centered on the real possibility of
Page 308 and 309: conventional wars. The public debat
Page 310 and 311: have been a much more robust high-t
Page 312 and 313: Even though defense spending has be
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Page 316 and 317: NATO/U.S. and Chinese air and other
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Page 322 and 323: leaders like Lieutenant General Yev
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Page 326 and 327: tially hostile forces in both the e
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Page 342 and 343: Finally, we must understand that Ru
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Page 348 and 349: ate a real strategic partnership th
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consequences of NATO enlargement, t
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Russia’s reaction to Asian milita
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Russian commentators noted that he
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CONCLUSIONS Nuclear weapons issues
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4. Military Doctrine of the Russian
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2008, pp. 97-128; Stanislav Secrier
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48. Colin Gray, House of Cards, Ith
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69. Transcript of Remarks and Respo
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87. “Interview with Foreign Minis
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110. “Russia RVSN Military Academ
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133. Jonathan Pollack, “U.S. Stra
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Taiwan Strait and the Future of Chi
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN TACTICAL NUCLEAR
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ased Intercontinental Ballistic Mis
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also not well enforced. The Nuclear
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The Soviet and Russian Armed Forces
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nuclear expert Alexei Arbatov confi
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• large-scale conflicts such as W
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preemptive strike, is not ruled out
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Asia, Russian leaders see resorting
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In response, Russian leaders threat
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any such intent. In July 2010, Alek
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tional conflict that Russia risked
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etween signaling Moscow’s serious
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to bring to reason anyone who could
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than the existing PNIs, which lack
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taken place or are in the process o
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in the next round of U.S.-Russian a
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and Britain characterize their nucl
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e dealt with as part of the NATO-Ru
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CONCLUSION: NUCLEAR POSSIBILITIES A
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a majority of Russian respondents (
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7. Sergei Zhuravlev, “On Combat R
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23. See for example: “The Nationa
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available from www.nytimes.com/2008
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Ogaryovo, June 9, 2006, President o
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72. “Russia Warns U.S. about Weap
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news%5D=34834&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5
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currency. Russian-American strategi
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The U.S. will continue to deploy an
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noted that U.S. policy was generall
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to create a conventional-nuclear fi
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achieve transformative goals in the
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West is taking place within a large
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U.S nuclear weapons during the Cold
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States to repatriate or destroy all
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In doing so, the leaders of Russia
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to reducing the numbers of deployed
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United States July 2009 Old START l
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(4) forces are on day to day alert
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1,000 instead of 1,550? In Figures
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possible concert with sympathetic K
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The findings in Figure 9-6 show tha
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the problem, from a Russian perspec
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6. Robert M. Gates, “The Case for
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14. Daryl G. Kimball, “Obama’s
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27. According to some experts, Russ
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44. See George Perkovich, “After
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56. An argument in favor of a multi
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multipolar context and speaks of Ru
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For well over 2 decades, Soviet and
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strikes seemed to have been designe
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als, since combat potential, when n
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The gamble on the nature of future
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FACING WEST AND EAST For Russia, wh
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tional system had shifted to a unip
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cal Islamic elements there and acro
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gic mobility and underscored the ne
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the transportation infrastructure t
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tion of China as a strategic threat
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concerns have become greater as the
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eforms of the Russian military, off
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ing tasks with small subunits. We h
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American superpower. In 2002, Nikon
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nario had left open the interventio
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der Guards, speak of Chinese effort
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military. In the absence of such a
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formed conventional forces might ac
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15. On the facilities in these two
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Daalder, The CFE Treaty: An Overvie
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57. “Vostok-2010 bez konkretnykh
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ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS STEPHEN J. B
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the U.S. Government as the director
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seminal chapter in a forthcoming bo
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Eurasia (2008); Mismanaging Mayhem:
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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