Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broaden nuclear strike options,” RT, October 14, 2009. 10. NSS. 11. President Dmitry Medvedev, cited in “Russia ready for Meaningful Military reform. Again. Really,” available from moscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2008/09/27. 12. Roger McDermott, Russia’s Armed Forces: The Power of Illusion, Russie.Nei.Visions No. 37, Brussels, Belgium: French Institute of International Relations, March 2009, pp. 16-18. Also see Roger McDermott, “Russia’s ‘Lessons’ from the Georgia War: Impacts on Military Reform Plans,” CACI Analyst, November 12, 2008. 13. Andrew Liaropoulos, “The Russian Defense Reform and its Limitations,” Caucasian Review of International Affairs, Vol. 2, No. 1, Winter 2008, pp. 44-45. 14. “Military reform: Basic guidelines,” RIA Novosti, February 24, 2010. 15. Dmitriy Gorenburg, “Russia’s New Model Army: Radical Reform in the Russian Military,” August 14, 2009, available from russiamil.wordpress.com. 16. Lieutenant Colonel Andrew Wallace, “Challenges to Russia’s Air Force Reform,” The ISCIP Analyst, Vol. 16, No. 12, April 22, 2010. 17. Roger McDermott, “Stall and Spin in Russian Air Force Reform,” Asia Times Online, August 22, 2009. 18. David Eschel, “In Spite of Medvedev’s Optimism, Russian Military is Facing Severe Crisis,” Defense Update online, July 24, 2009, available from defense-update.com/analysis/russian_military_ crisis_240709.html. 289
19. Vladimir Isachenkov, “Former Russian Air Force Chief says Air Defenses have Weakened,”Associated Press, May 13, 2010. 20. “The Future of the Russian Air Force: 10 Years On,” RIA Novosti, available from en.rian.ru/analysis/20100317/158228523. html. 21. Milan Vego, “The Russian Navy Revitalized,” Armed Forces Journal, April 2009. 22. “Russian Military Reform in a Time of Crisis,” RIA Novosti, March 15, 2010. 23. Alexey Komarov, “Russian Air Force Expects 100 New Aircraft,” Aviation Week, March 10, 2009. 24. Cited in Reuben F. Johnson, “Russian Navy Facing ‘Irreversible Collapse’,” The Weekly Standard, July 13, 2009. 25. Roger McDermott, “Naval Overhaul Slides off Russia’s Agenda,” Asia Times online, June 26, 2009. 26. V. V. Putin, “Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation,” Krasnaya Zvezda, No. 89, May 11, 2006. 27. Colonel S. G. Chekinov and Lieutenant General S. A. Bogdanov, “Asymmetric Actions to Maintain Russia’s Military Security,” Military Thought, No. 1, 2010, p. 8. 28. Andrei Schoumekhin and Baker Spring, “Strategic Nuclear Arms Control for the Protect and Defend Strategy,” Backgrounder, No. 2266, Washington, DC: The Heritage Foundation, May 4, 2009, pp. 7-8. 29. Dmitri Trenin,“Russian Perspectives on the Global Elimination of Nuclear Weapons,” Barry Blechman, ed., Russian and the United States, Washington, DC: The Stimson Center, July, 2009, p. 1. 30. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Michelle Flournoy, “Moscow’s Nuclear Doctrine under Fire,” Financial Times, March 18, 2010, p. 1. 290
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
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Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
Page 250 and 251: A positive element in all the confl
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Page 258 and 259: from Alaska, “but they will not b
Page 260 and 261: porting of an even more expensive p
Page 262 and 263: 5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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Page 266 and 267: (“The God of War Does Not Retire
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Page 270 and 271: closely fit one of first strike sce
Page 272 and 273: CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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Page 290 and 291: the fact that the economy and infra
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Page 307 and 308: Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
Page 309 and 310: systems, our partners may come to f
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Page 313 and 314: naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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Page 317 and 318: THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
Page 319 and 320: Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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Page 327 and 328: ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
Page 329 and 330: Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
Page 331 and 332: Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
Page 333 and 334: The radical changes that have occur
Page 335 and 336: tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
Page 337 and 338: In responding to a question from Pu
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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