Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

In 2008, Moscow tried to test the Bulava missile
once again with one successful attempt in September
and yet another failure in December. In the latter case,
not one of the reentry vehicles hit their targets at the
Kamchatka range. It marked the fifth failure out of
10 launches. As one Russian source put it, “the 10th
graded launch from on board the submarine missilecarrier
Dmitry Donskoy ended in full-scale disaster.” 42
The bottom line stated by Admiral Vysotskiy was
that “The Navy has nothing to replace it with.” According
to Vysotskiy, in spite of the unsuccessful tests,
the Navy had no choice but to press ahead with the
program. The missile is slated to be the mainstay of
the sea leg of Russia’s nuclear deterrent through 2040-
45. 43
According to Russian sources, the next test of a
Bulava was scheduled for the end of June 2010 on
board the Dmitri Donskoy. But this was modified in
May when it was announced that the missile would be
tested “no earlier than November this year [2010].” 44
The reason, according to the Navy, is that they have
still not been able to determine “the reason for the
previous launch failures.” 45 The Navy suspects that
the problem is in the assembly of the missile; the only
way they can explain why some missiles have worked
successfully, while others have not. In the future, the
Navy stated that it will launch three Bulava missiles at
the same time in an effort to pinpoint the problem. In
the meantime, the new submarines will undergo sea
trials, but not really put to sea doing the job they were
intended to perform until the Bulava is perfected,
whenever that happens.
18