Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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closely fit one of first strike scenarios built into the early warning system. For details, see Nikolai Sokov, “Can Norway Trigger a Nuclear War? Notes on the Russian Command and Control System.” PONARS Policy Memo No. 24, 1997. 74. Aleksandr Khramshikhin, “Strategicheskie Vooruzheniya ne Panatseya ot Ugrozy Voennogo Napadeniya dlya Rossii,” Voenno-Promyshlennyi Kurier, No. 11, 2010. 75. The Iskander-E was developed with a range of 280 km to avoid the restrictions of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)—the multilateral arrangement that seeks to restrict exports of missiles able to carry a 500 km payload to a distance of 300 km or more. The letter “E” in the missile’s name denotes the “export” variant. See Nikita Petrov, “Asimmetrichnyi Otvet” (“An Asymmetric Response”), Strana.Ru, February 16, 2007; Nikolai Poroskov, “Evropa pod Pritselom” (“Europe in Sights”), Vremya Novostei, February 16, 2007.  76. See the Address to the Federal Assembly by President of Russia Dmitri Medvedev on November 5, 2008, available from president.kremlin.ru/text/appears/2008/11/208749.shtml. 77. Vera Sitnina, “Voina Mozhet Vspykhnut Vnezapno,” Vremya Novostei, September 29, 2008. 78. Viktor Myasnikov, “GLONASS Dlya Vsekh,” Nezavisimoe Voennoe Obozrenie, June 4, 2010. 79. Artur Blinov, “Raketnyi Torg na Alyaske” (“A Missile Trade-off”), Oborona i Bezopasnost, August 30, 2006. 80. “Minoborony: Pri Neobkhodimosti Rossiya Mozhet Vyiti iz Dogovora po RSMD” (“Ministry of Defense: If Necessary, Russia Could Withdraw from the INF Treaty”), RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006; “Ekspert: Rossiya Mozhet Vyiti Iz Dogovora po RSMD v Odnostoronnem Poryadke” (“Expert: Russia Could Unilaterally Withdraw from the INF Treaty”), Interfax, August 25, 2006.  81. “Rossiya Mozhet Vyiti iz Dogovora po Raketam Srednei Dalnosti” (“Russia Could Withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Missiles Treaty”), Strana.Ru, February 15, 2007; Nikita Petrov, “Asimmetrichnyi Otvet” (“An Asymmetric Response”), Strana. 259
Ru, February 16, 2007; Nikolai Poroskov, “Evropa pod Pritselom” (“Europe in Sights”), Vremya Novostei, February 16, 2007; Viktor Myasnikov, “Asimmetrichnyi Otvet naiden” (“An Asymmetric Response Has Been Found”), Nezavisimaya Gazeta, February 16, 2007; Ilya Azar and Dmitri Vinogradov, “Otvet Srednimi Raketami” (“A Response with Medium Missiles”), Gazeta.Ru, February 15, 2007.  82. “SYaS Rossii: Narashchivanie Vozmozhnostei po Preodoleiyu Protivoraketnoi Oborony” (“Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces: Enhancing the Capability to Penetrate Missile Defenses”), Voenno-Promyshlennyi Krier, March 8-14, 2006. 
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
Page 220 and 221: 2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
Page 222 and 223: fewer paragraphs about the use of n
Page 224 and 225: Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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Page 230 and 231: tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
Page 232 and 233: The pace and the success rate for e
Page 234 and 235: Even more remote is the plan to dev
Page 236 and 237: construction of the first submarine
Page 238 and 239: tion of that leg was still minimal.
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Page 244 and 245: of information about plans turned o
Page 246 and 247: Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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Page 250 and 251: A positive element in all the confl
Page 252 and 253: from submarines is likely to compli
Page 254 and 255: 2005, two more are close to complet
Page 256 and 257: time) is practically never mentione
Page 258 and 259: from Alaska, “but they will not b
Page 260 and 261: porting of an even more expensive p
Page 262 and 263: 5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
Page 264 and 265: 20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
Page 266 and 267: (“The God of War Does Not Retire
Page 268 and 269: 50. For a recent statement to that
Page 272 and 273: CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
Page 274 and 275: completely out of proportion to its
Page 276 and 277: its conventional military force to
Page 278 and 279: especially in the strategic nuclear
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Page 282 and 283: wars. However, given expressions of
Page 284 and 285: equate command and control capabili
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Page 290 and 291: the fact that the economy and infra
Page 292 and 293: The threat environment fabricated b
Page 294 and 295: There are aspects to their nuclear
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Page 298 and 299: ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
Page 300 and 301: 8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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Page 305 and 306: policy context, suggests that very
Page 307 and 308: Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
Page 309 and 310: systems, our partners may come to f
Page 311 and 312: increased purchases of weapons and
Page 313 and 314: naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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Page 317 and 318: THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
Page 319 and 320: Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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