Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

porting of an even more expensive programs for intermediate-range
missiles. It seems likely that reluctance
to allocate funds played an important role in the decision
to pursue a diplomatic option and postpone the
abrogation decision to an indefinite future.
CONCLUSION
Nuclear weapons retain a high profile in Russian
national security strategy and will keep it in the foreseeable
future. Contrary to official statements, there is
no reason to believe that Russia could agree to a very
significant reduction, much less elimination, of its nuclear
arsenal. Instead, 10 years ago nuclear weapons
were given additional roles—those of deterring and
deescalating limited (“regional”) conventional wars.
They are likely to keep that role as well, at least during
the coming decade.
At the same time, Russian leadership clearly understands
the limited utility of nuclear weapons and
seeks to enhance conventional capability. In this sense,
Russia is moving in some of the same directions as the
United States—it seeks to develop missile defense and
precision-guided long-range conventional assets. According
to long-term plans, eventually these efforts
should allow Russia to reduce reliance on nuclear
weapons. These programs encounter multiple delays,
however, and progress much slower than anticipated.
Russia will hardly succeed before the end of the coming
decade and might never completely close the gap
with the United States and NATO. In that case, reliance
on nuclear weapons will continue indefinitely.
Certain similarities notwithstanding, differences
between the United States and Russia will continue—
Moscow is likely to continue seeing U.S. Global Strike
and missile defense plans as a potential threat. There
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