Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at that time rejected by Washington. Moreover, since 2004 Russia no longer recognizes PNIs as even politically binding. The last time Moscow formally reported on the implementation of PNIs was at the NPT PrepCom in April 2004, when the Russian representative mentioned that his country had “almost completed implementation” of its “initiatives” except for warheads assigned to Ground Forces, and that the pace of elimination was constrained by the technological capacity and available funding. 35 Six months later, an official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry declared Russia was not bound by the PNIs, which were characterized as a goodwill gesture rather than an obligation. 36 That said, PNIs have apparently been implemented, even though Russia does not publicly recognize that. In a report distributed at the 2005 NPT Review Conference, Russia declared that it had reduced its TNW arsenal to one-fourth of what it was in 1991. 37 The following year, the Chief of the 12th Glavnoye Upravleniye Ministerstvo Oborony (GUMO, the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense responsible for handling nuclear weapons), confirmed that information and even asserted that reductions exceeded the original promise (he asserted that the 1991 statements foresaw a 64 percent reduction while Russia had reduced its TNW arsenal by 75 percent). 38 Speaking in 2007, the new Chief of the 12th GUMO, General Vladimir Verkhovtsev, confirmed the 75 percent figure and added that the promised elimination of TNW warheads assigned to Ground Forces had been completed. 39 The exact number of Russian TNW is unknown because parties to the PNIs are not required to exchange 215
it. It is commonly believed that Russia has about 2,000 warheads for delivery vehicles that are not subject to START treaties—about double what the United States is assumed to have. 40 Breaking down that uncertain number into categories is even more challenging. According to the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), the Air Force has 650 warheads, the Navy 700, and Air Defense and Missile Defense (nowadays united in the Aerospace Forces) 700. 41 Russian nongovernmental experts use the same figures, but the method of calculation used by NRDC leaves many uncertainties. 42 It is safe to assume that the overall size of the stockpile is going down. Russia continued to dismantle warheads with expired service life (warranty), and only some of those are refurbished. The rate of dismantlement and refurbishment is limited by the available industrial capacity. There is no saying at what point the decline will stop and the stockpile become stabilized. That time is probably near. A solution to the paradox of TNW—assets that Russia apparently does not need, but continues to hold on to—can be found in domestic politics rather than in strategic planning. The Russian government attitude toward TNW appears to represent a complex mix of domestic and bureaucratic politics, (mis)perceptions, and idiosyncrasies. Its main elements could be summarized in the following way: • “No More Unreciprocated Concessions.” Resistance to arms control measures with regard to TNW appears to reflect the deep-seated rejection of Gorbachev and early Yeltsin propensity to make wide-ranging concessions that Edward Shevardnadze used to call “concessions to common sense.” Russian numerical superior- 216
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
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71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
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90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
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125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
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The positive shift in relations coi
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Page 181 and 182: Since the collapse of the Union of
Page 183 and 184: avoid the need to act on this rheto
Page 185 and 186: the technology behind its modern ai
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Page 189 and 190: to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
Page 191 and 192: Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
Page 193 and 194: 10. A more detailed analysis of thi
Page 195 and 196: analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
Page 198 and 199: CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
Page 200 and 201: ery vehicles is apparently below th
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Page 204 and 205: that they could theoretically affec
Page 206 and 207: cause Russia can respond with nucle
Page 208 and 209: states, and Nordic countries to tha
Page 210 and 211: should be more properly translated
Page 212 and 213: as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
Page 214 and 215: cautious attitude toward missile de
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Page 218 and 219: exercises since 1999. All of them w
Page 220 and 221: 2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
Page 222 and 223: fewer paragraphs about the use of n
Page 224 and 225: Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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Page 230 and 231: tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
Page 232 and 233: The pace and the success rate for e
Page 234 and 235: Even more remote is the plan to dev
Page 236 and 237: construction of the first submarine
Page 238 and 239: tion of that leg was still minimal.
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Page 242 and 243: weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
Page 244 and 245: of information about plans turned o
Page 246 and 247: Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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Page 250 and 251: A positive element in all the confl
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Page 258 and 259: from Alaska, “but they will not b
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Page 262 and 263: 5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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Page 270 and 271: closely fit one of first strike sce
Page 272 and 273: CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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