Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

as reduced-noise submarines. In post-Soviet Russia
reliance on strike on warning even enhanced due to a
number of reasons: (1) the deep economic crisis, which
forced drastic reduction of funding, (2) the breakup of
the Soviet Union, which left many relatively modern
weapons outside Russia, reduced deployment options,
and undermined the production capability limiting
ability to develop and produce weapons systems, and
(3) the deterioration of early warning capability due to
the loss of several key radars.
Traditional strategic deterrence is regarded as a
skeleton of international security—the underlying
structure that keeps the system stable. Speaking at
the London Institute of International and Strategic
Studies, Sergey Ivanov (at that time still Minister of
Defense) called strategic deterrence the foundation of
global stability. 11 Similar views have been expressed
by almost every official and unofficial source in Russia.
Strategic deterrence is primarily aimed at the United
States and, to a smaller extent, its allies. China is
present in the background—Russian officials just do
not speak about the need to deter China, and relatively
few nongovernmental experts are prepared to discuss
this mission. The reasons why the United States
remains the focus are:
• The United States has demonstrated the willingness
to use force, including for humanitarian
interventions.
• A U.S. decision to use force cannot be overruled
by the UN or its allies.
• It is commonly believed that a large-scale attack
(regional conflict) can only be successful if
the United States leads it.
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