Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty:
While that agreement provided for reduction
of nuclear weapons, it is has apparently
become part of a policy aimed at enhancing
conventional capability.
• What is the impact of U.S. missile defense plans
on the Russian nuclear posture, and how has
it changed in the last year or so? Is there any
prospect for cooperation with the United States
and NATO on missile defense and what are the
limits of that cooperation?
Key conclusions can be summarized as follows:
1. During the last 10-15 years, Russian nuclear policy
has experienced approximately the same evolution
as that of other nuclear weapons states (NWS)—gradual
increase in the perceived role of these weapons,
emergence of new missions, and then, toward the end
of this decade, gradual reduction of their role. In Russia,
the decrease of the role of nuclear weapons has
been somewhat less pronounced than in other NWS.
2. Nuclear weapons have two missions. One is traditional
strategic deterrence—prevention of a largescale
aggression against Russia. The other, which is
considered more pertinent under present circumstances,
is deterrence of a more limited conventional
attack by a powerful country or an alliance (a clear reference
to the United States and NATO), which cannot
be repelled with Russian conventional forces alone.
Recently, the perceived urgency of the latter mission
has somewhat receded, but it remains on the books.
3. Russia seeks to gradually shift emphasis from
nuclear to long-range high-precision conventional assets.
It has been at least 15-20 years behind the United
States and its allies, however, and the verdict is still
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