Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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31. Mikhail Gorbachev has recently argued about the risks of the split between the regime <strong>and</strong> the society; see Pavel Baev, “Gorbachev warns of explosive problems with Medvedev’s “modernization,” Eurasia Daily Monitor, July 26, 2010, available from www. jamestown.org/programs/edm/archivesedm/2010/. 32. A good source on the petro-politics is the bi-weekly bulletin, “Political risks in the <strong>Russian</strong> oil-&-gas complex,” produced by the National Energy Security Fund, available from www.energystate.ru/eng/. 185
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
Page 146 and 147: CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
Page 148 and 149: eady developing the theory of strat
Page 150 and 151: termination of the Cold War and the
Page 152 and 153: goals and the promise “to extend
Page 154 and 155: • Reforms of the army, law-enforc
Page 156 and 157: 5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
Page 158 and 159: 29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
Page 160 and 161: 45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
Page 162 and 163: 62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
Page 164 and 165: 71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
Page 166 and 167: 90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
Page 168 and 169: lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
Page 170: 125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
Page 173 and 174: The positive shift in relations coi
Page 175 and 176: and in other public statements that
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Page 179 and 180: mobilization. 11 It is possible to
Page 181 and 182: Since the collapse of the Union of
Page 183 and 184: avoid the need to act on this rheto
Page 185 and 186: the technology behind its modern ai
Page 187 and 188: duumvirate might be modified or aba
Page 189 and 190: to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
Page 191 and 192: Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
Page 193 and 194: 10. A more detailed analysis of thi
Page 195: analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
Page 199 and 200: Internet forums will find participa
Page 201 and 202: Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (
Page 203 and 204: 7. The current trends will make Rus
Page 205 and 206: future international system as base
Page 207 and 208: eration and war prevention: this be
Page 209 and 210: led Russian military planners to re
Page 211 and 212: In a review of an unpublished early
Page 213 and 214: • It is assumed that if Russia ca
Page 215 and 216: against Russia or its allies, nucle
Page 217 and 218: esistance by Russian conventional f
Page 219 and 220: on nuclear weapons alone is simply
Page 221 and 222: under which these weapons could be
Page 223 and 224: mid-1990s during debates about poss
Page 225 and 226: ern theaters differ by the nature o
Page 227 and 228: it. It is commonly believed that Ru
Page 229 and 230: portant player, has many other more
Page 231 and 232: service time is regularly extended,
Page 233 and 234: production of Topol (SS-25) was rep
Page 235 and 236: MIRVed ICBM and even the rail-mobil
Page 237 and 238: submarine in the new class, Yuri Do
Page 239 and 240: the 2000s, the Air Force became the
Page 241 and 242: MISSILE DEFENSE IN U.S.-RUSSIAN REL
Page 243 and 244: plans. Concern about future capabil
Page 245 and 246: a positive first step toward a fina
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of the defense system (and have the
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In the absence of a final solution,
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the moment. By and large, this conc
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it was fairly often reported in the
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or more years. Given multiple delay
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they were part of Russian desire to
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anks of retired generals who claime
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exists an important asymmetry: Whil
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11. Sergei Ivanov’s statement at
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31. Vadim Smirnov, “Kalinigradski
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42. The National Resource Defense C
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62. RIA-Novosti, July 24, 2008 63.
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Ru, February 16, 2007; Nikolai Poro
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e assumed that Russia has never bee
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sue their policy of military superi
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other is to try and return to the p
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America was actively trying to stea
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The Military Doctrine provides a vi
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the importance of a transformation
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• Henceforth, all military units
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the Air Force is reported to be rec
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military’s conventional capabilit
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Missile (ABM) Treaty and refusal to
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As the self-perceived isolated grea
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military security challenges of the
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military. Technology limitations, i
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Russia needs either to build a conv
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19. Vladimir Isachenkov, “Former
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CHAPTER 7 RUSSIA AND NUCLEAR WEAPON
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centered on the real possibility of
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conventional wars. The public debat
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have been a much more robust high-t
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Even though defense spending has be
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Medvedev announced in May 2010 subs
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NATO/U.S. and Chinese air and other
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assert Russia’s identity as a gre
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Russian political system which cann
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leaders like Lieutenant General Yev
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to maintain parity are now being in
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tially hostile forces in both the e
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Security Advisor James L. Jones,
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fenses once this treaty is ratified
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that having created an umbrella aga
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Army (PLA). 97 Similarly, proof of
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interference. In political terms, i
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Russia to apply them in order to ma
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The asymmetric escalation posture i
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Finally, we must understand that Ru
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this Russian statement essentially
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consequences of the Democratic Peop
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ate a real strategic partnership th
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Neither are Russian military analys
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consequences of NATO enlargement, t
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Russia’s reaction to Asian milita
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Russian commentators noted that he
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CONCLUSIONS Nuclear weapons issues
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4. Military Doctrine of the Russian
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2008, pp. 97-128; Stanislav Secrier
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48. Colin Gray, House of Cards, Ith
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69. Transcript of Remarks and Respo
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87. “Interview with Foreign Minis
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110. “Russia RVSN Military Academ
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133. Jonathan Pollack, “U.S. Stra
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Taiwan Strait and the Future of Chi
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN TACTICAL NUCLEAR
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ased Intercontinental Ballistic Mis
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also not well enforced. The Nuclear
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The Soviet and Russian Armed Forces
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nuclear expert Alexei Arbatov confi
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• large-scale conflicts such as W
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preemptive strike, is not ruled out
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Asia, Russian leaders see resorting
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In response, Russian leaders threat
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any such intent. In July 2010, Alek
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tional conflict that Russia risked
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etween signaling Moscow’s serious
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to bring to reason anyone who could
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than the existing PNIs, which lack
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taken place or are in the process o
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in the next round of U.S.-Russian a
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and Britain characterize their nucl
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e dealt with as part of the NATO-Ru
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CONCLUSION: NUCLEAR POSSIBILITIES A
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a majority of Russian respondents (
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7. Sergei Zhuravlev, “On Combat R
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23. See for example: “The Nationa
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available from www.nytimes.com/2008
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Ogaryovo, June 9, 2006, President o
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72. “Russia Warns U.S. about Weap
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news%5D=34834&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5
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currency. Russian-American strategi
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The U.S. will continue to deploy an
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noted that U.S. policy was generall
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to create a conventional-nuclear fi
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achieve transformative goals in the
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West is taking place within a large
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U.S nuclear weapons during the Cold
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States to repatriate or destroy all
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In doing so, the leaders of Russia
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to reducing the numbers of deployed
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United States July 2009 Old START l
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(4) forces are on day to day alert
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1,000 instead of 1,550? In Figures
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possible concert with sympathetic K
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The findings in Figure 9-6 show tha
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the problem, from a Russian perspec
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6. Robert M. Gates, “The Case for
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14. Daryl G. Kimball, “Obama’s
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27. According to some experts, Russ
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44. See George Perkovich, “After
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56. An argument in favor of a multi
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multipolar context and speaks of Ru
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For well over 2 decades, Soviet and
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strikes seemed to have been designe
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als, since combat potential, when n
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The gamble on the nature of future
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FACING WEST AND EAST For Russia, wh
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tional system had shifted to a unip
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cal Islamic elements there and acro
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gic mobility and underscored the ne
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the transportation infrastructure t
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tion of China as a strategic threat
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concerns have become greater as the
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eforms of the Russian military, off
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ing tasks with small subunits. We h
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American superpower. In 2002, Nikon
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nario had left open the interventio
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der Guards, speak of Chinese effort
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military. In the absence of such a
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formed conventional forces might ac
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15. On the facilities in these two
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Daalder, The CFE Treaty: An Overvie
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57. “Vostok-2010 bez konkretnykh
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ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS STEPHEN J. B
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the U.S. Government as the director
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seminal chapter in a forthcoming bo
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Eurasia (2008); Mismanaging Mayhem:
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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