Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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3. A key proponent of this view is Sergei Karaganov, “Strategic Havoc,” Russia in Global Affairs, January-March 2010, available from eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/30/1329.html. 4. For the author’s more elaborate analysis of that evolution, see Pavel Baev, Russian Energy Policy and Military Power, London, UK: Routledge, 2008. 5. See Fedor Lukyanov, “Russian dilemmas in a multipolar world,” Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 63, No. 2, Spring-Summer 2010, pp. 19-32. 6. This risk is emphasized in Vladislav Inozemtsev, “Dreams about a multi-polar world,” Nezavisimaya gazeta, September 18, 2008, in Russian. 7. It is interesting to note that some threats in this document are described in very definite terms (“Global informational struggle will increase”), while others are presented in a more circumspect way (“In competition for resources, attempts at resolving the emerging problems with military force cannot be ruled out. . . .”). Author’s translation, the Russian text is available from www.scrf. gov.ru/documents/99.html. 8. Some threats appear to be invented specifically for making diplomatic protestations, for instance “Demonstration of military power in the course of exercises on territory of states bordering the Russian Federation or its allies with provocative aims.” One useful overview is Keir Giles, “The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation 2010,” Research Review, Rome, Italy: NATO Defense College, February 2010, available from www.ndc.nato.int/ research/series.php?icode=9. 9. One insightful evaluation of this reform is Vitaly Shlykov, “The secrets of Serdyukov’s blitzkrieg,” Russia in Global Affairs, January-March 2010, available from eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/30/1331.html. 181
10. A more detailed analysis of this transformation is found in Pavel Baev, “Military reform against heavy odds,” Anders Åslund, Sergei Guriev, and Andrew Kuchins, eds., Russia After the Global Economic Crisis, Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2010. 11. Expert discussion of this issue is in “Current problems and logic of the military reform,” Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, May 14, 2009, in Russian. See also Aleksandr Hramchihin, “All in all— 85 permanent readiness brigades,” Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, October 16, 2009, in Russian. 12. For a critical analysis of the Vostok-2010 exercises in July 2010, see Aleksandr Hramchihin, “Inadequate Vostok,” Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, July 23, 2010, in Russian. 13. On the dismal state of Russian air defense system, which currently can intercept at best 20 percent of aircraft or missiles targeting Moscow, see Oleg Vladykin, “Holes in space defense,” Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie, May 21, 2010, in Russian. 14. Voyennaya Doktrina Rossiyskoy Federatsii (Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation), February 5, 2010, available from www. scrf.gov.ru/documents/33.html. 15. One useful analysis of this issue is Aleksei Arbatov, “Tactical nuclear weapons—problems and prospects,” Voenno-promyshlennyi kuryer, May 5, 2010, in Russian, available from www. carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=40747. 16. Thus, Nikolai Patrushev, the Secretary of the Security Council, revealed that “conditions for use of nuclear weapons for repelling aggression with the use of conventional weapons are corrected not only for a large-scale but also for a regional or even a local war.” He further clarified that “in situations critical for national security, the possibility of a preemptive (preventive) nuclear strike on the aggressor is not ruled out.” The Military Doctrine does not contain such propositions, but he was in charge of revising several earlier drafts. See Vladimir Mamontov, “Russia is changing, and its military doctrine is changing also,” interview with Nikolai Patrushev, Izvestiya, October 14, 2009, in Russian. 182
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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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Institute, examined some of these i
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of brigades in the table of organiz
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The performance of the brigades, fo
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employment will be effective when t
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RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
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The Search for the “New:” Defin
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on states; individual states violat
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almost verbatim. The third threat,
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ministry working group. Army-Genera
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Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
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Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
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identifying the intentions and fore
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
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mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
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Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
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in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
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6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
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28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
Page 142 and 143: and NATO provocations.” In partic
Page 144 and 145: econsider its key postulates. Alrea
Page 146 and 147: CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
Page 148 and 149: eady developing the theory of strat
Page 150 and 151: termination of the Cold War and the
Page 152 and 153: goals and the promise “to extend
Page 154 and 155: • Reforms of the army, law-enforc
Page 156 and 157: 5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
Page 158 and 159: 29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
Page 160 and 161: 45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
Page 162 and 163: 62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
Page 164 and 165: 71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
Page 166 and 167: 90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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Page 170: 125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
Page 173 and 174: The positive shift in relations coi
Page 175 and 176: and in other public statements that
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Page 179 and 180: mobilization. 11 It is possible to
Page 181 and 182: Since the collapse of the Union of
Page 183 and 184: avoid the need to act on this rheto
Page 185 and 186: the technology behind its modern ai
Page 187 and 188: duumvirate might be modified or aba
Page 189 and 190: to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
Page 191: Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
Page 195 and 196: analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
Page 198 and 199: CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
Page 200 and 201: ery vehicles is apparently below th
Page 202 and 203: out as to whether it will be able t
Page 204 and 205: that they could theoretically affec
Page 206 and 207: cause Russia can respond with nucle
Page 208 and 209: states, and Nordic countries to tha
Page 210 and 211: should be more properly translated
Page 212 and 213: as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
Page 214 and 215: cautious attitude toward missile de
Page 216 and 217: few years later, demonstrated that
Page 218 and 219: exercises since 1999. All of them w
Page 220 and 221: 2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
Page 222 and 223: fewer paragraphs about the use of n
Page 224 and 225: Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
Page 226 and 227: and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
Page 228 and 229: ity is regarded as an advantage tha
Page 230 and 231: tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
Page 232 and 233: The pace and the success rate for e
Page 234 and 235: Even more remote is the plan to dev
Page 236 and 237: construction of the first submarine
Page 238 and 239: tion of that leg was still minimal.
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
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A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
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5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
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50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
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completely out of proportion to its
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its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
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upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
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the fact that the economy and infra
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The threat environment fabricated b
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There are aspects to their nuclear
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that are likely to result in greate
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ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
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8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
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31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
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systems, our partners may come to f
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increased purchases of weapons and
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naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
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Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
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In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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