Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

• Reforms of the army, law-enforcement and judicial
systems that traditionally provide stability
and security for the regime are failing.
• According to some worst-case predictions,
Russia may soon be unable to effectively defend
itself with conventional forces. Under this
scenario, the emphasis on nuclear weapons’
use will undoubtedly grow.
• Serious deterioration or eventual collapse of
law-and-order in the country may again raise
the vital question of security and safety of nuclear
and other sensitive materials and installations,
and potential WMD proliferation from
Russian sources.
• The seemingly amicable relationship between
two top Russian leaders may deteriorate or
break down, especially if the duumvirate comes
under serious pressures from opponents, rivals,
and an unhappy and irate public, including the
military and other people in uniform.
These and many other so far unforeseen developments
may change the Russian scene. Any major
transformations in Russia are bound to modify that
country’s policies, stated strategic goals and doctrines.
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 3
1. On May 12, 2010, The Russian Federation (RF) Foreign
Ministry announced it is “considering the possibility of publicizing
data on its nuclear weapons” following similar moves by
the United States and Great Britain and in the spirit of the new
arms control treaty signed by U.S. President Barack Obama and
RF President Dmitrii Medvedev in Prague, the Czech Republic,
on May 8, 2010. See “Russia May Divulge Data on Its Nuclear
Arsenal,” RIA Novosti, May 12, 2010, in Russian, available from
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