Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future

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future reductions to a 1,000 warhead level might look like, while Jacob Kipp analyzes the deep-seated strategic challenges that Russia faces in its Asian-Pacific Far East. Richard Weitz provides an in-depth analysis of the vexing issue of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) that are already a source of friction between the two sides and one that will figure prominently in any future arms control negotiation. In many cases, it will become clear that in the attempt to answer the questions asked of them, the authors of this book have produced a considerable amount of overlap, i.e., more than one author addressing the same point. However, what is equally as clear is that there is no agreement among them. There was a deliberate attempt to avoid a “pre-cooked” consensus. Rather, each author’s individual view is asserted in their chapters, underscoring the inherent opacity of Russian programs and the different analytical approaches of each writer. This outcome is hardly surprising in view of the strategic importance, complexity, many-sidedness, and ambiguity of Russia’s approach to nuclear weapons. While the differences among the writers may produce difficulties for readers not necessarily versed in the intricacies of Russian strategic thinking and policy, they reflect the true reality of the material and the issues, which are inherently difficult and contentious in the United States (as the debate over the NEW Start treaty clearly illustrates). The difficulty and complexity is inherent in the subject matter, and we deliberately sought to avoid imposing predetermined outcomes or conclusions in organizing the conference and these papers. We hope that these papers serve to illuminate some of the most important, yet also intractable, defense policy issues facing the United States (and other states as well, not just Russia) ix
and that they contribute to an even richer discussion and debate here in the United States, if not abroad. ENDNOTE 1. Stephen Blank, ”Cold Obstruction: The Legacy of US-Russia Relations Under George W. Bush,” in Stephen J. Cimbala, ed., The George W. Bush Defense Program: Policy, Strategy, & War, Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2010, pp. 113-138; TREATY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE RUSSIAN FED- ERATION ON MEASURES FOR THE FURTHER REDUCTION AND LIMITATION OF STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE ARMS, available from www.state.gov/documents/organization/140035.pdf; PRO- TOCOL TO THE TREATY BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON MEA- SURES FOR THE FURTHER REDUCTION AND LIMITATION OF STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE ARMS, available from www.state. gov/documents/organization/140047.pdf. x
Page 1 and 2: Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
Page 3 and 4: ***** Comments pertaining to this r
Page 5 and 6: Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
Page 8 and 9: INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
Page 12 and 13: CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
Page 14 and 15: States (CIS). For a number of reaso
Page 16 and 17: with nuclear weapons alone. General
Page 18 and 19: cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
Page 20 and 21: PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
Page 22 and 23: sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
Page 24 and 25: its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
Page 26 and 27: The words about the priority of nuc
Page 28 and 29: If the constant failures by the Bul
Page 30 and 31: LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
Page 32 and 33: prepare themselves against.” 51 A
Page 34 and 35: that day the directorates were enga
Page 36 and 37: USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
Page 38 and 39: 2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
Page 40 and 41: 28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
Page 42: 53. “The Military Doctrine of the
Page 45 and 46: mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
Page 47 and 48: 1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
Page 49 and 50: Implementation. Chief of the Genera
Page 51 and 52: has not been followed by any obviou
Page 53 and 54: ficers compared with society and th
Page 55 and 56: Many of these challenges are unlike
Page 57 and 58: Institute, examined some of these i
Page 59 and 60: of brigades in the table of organiz
Page 61 and 62:
The performance of the brigades, fo
Page 63 and 64:
employment will be effective when t
Page 65 and 66:
RUSSIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE 2010: “
Page 67 and 68:
The Search for the “New:” Defin
Page 69 and 70:
on states; individual states violat
Page 71 and 72:
almost verbatim. The third threat,
Page 73 and 74:
ministry working group. Army-Genera
Page 75 and 76:
Nuclear Posture and Redrafting. Des
Page 77 and 78:
Medvedev. 67 Although much of the d
Page 79 and 80:
identifying the intentions and fore
Page 81 and 82:
The Russian Federation reserves the
Page 83 and 84:
the Chinese. Moreover, they do not
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United States, Russia is in a diffe
Page 87 and 88:
mankind to the brink of a nuclear c
Page 89 and 90:
Tactical Nuclear Reduction Talks as
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as among Alliance members, future B
Page 93 and 94:
in Krasnaya Zvezda. Their proposal
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fearing that, unless handled sensit
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of strategic engagement with Russia
Page 99 and 100:
6. Baranets, “The Army Will Be Ge
Page 101 and 102:
28. “Putin Chairs Meeting in Voro
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44. Ibid. 45. Ibid. 46. Voyennaya D
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Visits Abu Dhabi Arms Show, Talks o
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Nuclear Development Concerns Russia
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CHAPTER 3 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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tary and foreign policy, many polit
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In June 1967, U.S. President Lyndon
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1970s had long-term effects on late
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ons aimed at satellites. 17 Clearly
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educing strategic armaments and eve
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Internationally, the RF earned a du
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itary-political relations with West
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The situation in the armed forces t
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The Russian Federation reserves the
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In the latter case, they expected o
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As seen by a Russian expert: In mid
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facilitate the elimination of weapo
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Putin saw added opportunities for p
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the expanded uses of nuclear weapon
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sures” to counter the U.S. BMD an
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and NATO provocations.” In partic
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econsider its key postulates. Alrea
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CONCLUSION: PERCEPTIONS AND REALITI
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eady developing the theory of strat
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termination of the Cold War and the
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goals and the promise “to extend
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• Reforms of the army, law-enforc
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5. Andrei A. Gromyko, “To Be Reme
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29. “Yeltsin Rattles Nuclear Sabr
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45. Vladimir Putin, “Opening Addr
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62. See Amy F. Woolf, “Anti-Balli
Page 164 and 165:
71. “Sergei Ivanov: Russia is for
Page 166 and 167:
90. Vladimir Ivanov, “Iskanders A
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lish%2FDefence_Arms_13%2FRussia_s_D
Page 170:
125. See Keith B. Payne, “Disarma
Page 173 and 174:
The positive shift in relations coi
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and in other public statements that
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tagonist of the cause for dismantli
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mobilization. 11 It is possible to
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Since the collapse of the Union of
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avoid the need to act on this rheto
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the technology behind its modern ai
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duumvirate might be modified or aba
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to be non-negotiable. Putin believe
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Such a hard-driven Russia might tur
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10. A more detailed analysis of thi
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analysis can be found in Aleksei Ar
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CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN RUSSIA
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ery vehicles is apparently below th
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out as to whether it will be able t
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that they could theoretically affec
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cause Russia can respond with nucle
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states, and Nordic countries to tha
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should be more properly translated
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as reduced-noise submarines. In pos
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cautious attitude toward missile de
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few years later, demonstrated that
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exercises since 1999. All of them w
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2010 AND INTO THE FUTURE The new, t
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fewer paragraphs about the use of n
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Force, whose leaders rarely if ever
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and verifiable treaty on TNW was at
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ity is regarded as an advantage tha
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tiatives aimed at reducing the Russ
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The pace and the success rate for e
Page 234 and 235:
Even more remote is the plan to dev
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construction of the first submarine
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tion of that leg was still minimal.
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where between Tu-22M3 and heavy bom
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weapons guarantee Russia’s securi
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of information about plans turned o
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Quite paradoxically, another, equal
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troversy over missile defense. In h
Page 250 and 251:
A positive element in all the confl
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from submarines is likely to compli
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2005, two more are close to complet
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time) is practically never mentione
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from Alaska, “but they will not b
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porting of an even more expensive p
Page 262 and 263:
5. Roman Dobrokhotov, “Obezoruzhi
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20. A. Khryapin and V. Afanasiev,
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(“The God of War Does Not Retire
Page 268 and 269:
50. For a recent statement to that
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closely fit one of first strike sce
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CHAPTER 6 CAUGHT BETWEEN SCYLLA AND
Page 274 and 275:
completely out of proportion to its
Page 276 and 277:
its conventional military force to
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especially in the strategic nuclear
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in the NSS and brings it close to h
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wars. However, given expressions of
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equate command and control capabili
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weapons. The number of commands and
Page 288 and 289:
upgraded warplanes, 20 to 25 milita
Page 290 and 291:
the fact that the economy and infra
Page 292 and 293:
The threat environment fabricated b
Page 294 and 295:
There are aspects to their nuclear
Page 296 and 297:
that are likely to result in greate
Page 298 and 299:
ope. Recently, Moscow even objected
Page 300 and 301:
8. Ibid, p. 6. 9. “Russia to broa
Page 302:
31. Colonel General Alexander Zelin
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policy context, suggests that very
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Indeed, from Boldyrev’s remarks w
Page 309 and 310:
systems, our partners may come to f
Page 311 and 312:
increased purchases of weapons and
Page 313 and 314:
naval bases. 27 Yet the defense sec
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state expenditures will supposedly
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THE NATIONAL SECURITY CONTEXT Beyon
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Not only did Serdyukov accept this
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the Strategic Missile (Rocket) Forc
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fight using such weapons. Consequen
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the global and regional levels enta
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ate risks for Russia.” 74 But sin
Page 329 and 330:
Neither is this just rhetoric. As o
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Since then Deputy Foreign Minister
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The radical changes that have occur
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tary’s viewpoint. Patrushev told
Page 337 and 338:
In responding to a question from Pu
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strike even in a preventive or pree
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longer guarantee a retaliatory resp
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tive entourages. Such trends are da
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standpoint its perception is a vali
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this problem and make the Fleet Rus
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tedly self-inflated status that it
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The following analysis from 2004 to
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Consequently, 162 Vasilenko also st
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inferiority vis-à-vis U.S. and Chi
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eductions will continue. Most likel
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If Russian leaders are to decrease
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14. “Failure to build a professio
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37. Moscow, Russia, Interfax-AVN On
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59. Open Source Committee, OSC Anal
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78. Open Source Center, “Russians
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99. “Russia To Allocate $35.3 Bil
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121. Jussi Kontinen, “Russia Plan
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143. Litovkin, “We Didn’t Send
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nid Ivashov on Russian Foreign Poli
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Sixth, Russian policymakers can iss
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U.S. surface ships and attack subma
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arsenal, as well as approximately a
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the Russian military has continued
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heads, instead it is possible to ma
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it endangers the Russian state (a p
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particular, Russian Government repr
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Poland will once again come under i
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to host U.S. BMD facilities, Russia
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systems. U.S. ballistic missile and
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Russian Government abandoned its de
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Later that year, Putin told leading
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a U.S.-NATO attack. In his May 2006
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The Obama administration also decid
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treaty monitoring by prohibiting ac
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The main Russian military newspaper
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more secure locations. 80 Russian o
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Any proposals for increased transpa
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emaining props of Russia’s great
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many and Japan in the generations a
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2010, available from news.kremlin.r
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32. Cited in Peter Finn, “Antimis
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48. Viktor Myasnikov, Vladimir Ivan
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asp?SHORTCUT=695; John Edwards and
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81. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of
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CHAPTER 9 NEW START AND NONPROLIFER
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number of launchers to a maximum of
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U.S. plan for missile defenses depl
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tual deployment of weapons for conv
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and Air Force. 20 Russia’s need f
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war. The conflict also served as a
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Brazil, China, Japan, South Korea,
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perceived battlefield desperation.
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(CBT); to mobilize international su
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linear to nonlinear strategies for
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Data Analysis. Current and New STAR
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Using the numbers in Table 3-1 as p
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Figure 9-2. Russian Surviving and R
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The results summarized in Figures 9
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intended as predictions of actual f
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CONCLUSION New START and other mani
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ty,” Opening Statement before the
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Talbott, “A better base for cutti
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20. Dale R. Herspring, “Putin, Me
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35. “Military dangers” create c
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and Future of Nuclear Weapons, New
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CHAPTER 10 RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR POSTU
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Russian foreign policy commentary o
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jor component of Russia’s geostra
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many in 1941, Gareev pointed to the
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By the spring of 2009, a number of
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structures, early warning systems,
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ghanistan, were part of an effort t
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design bureau in Moscow and the pro
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weapons by India and Pakistan in 19
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Kuril islands. In both Manchuria an
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There were, of course, all sorts of
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Australian experts concluded was fi
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however, Chinese military moderniza
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cise, General Makarov stated that:
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commitment to make Russia into an i
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cruiser Petr Velikii to observe a m
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as effectively defenseless against
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nal threats, but the real problem i
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cused Khramchikhin of “playing wi
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that included not only the Russian
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27. Aleksandr’ Kondrat’ev, “N
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47. This process has been addressed
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66. Aleksandr’ Khramhikhin. “Ne
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terly journal, Security Dialogue, a
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editor of Military Affairs, as assi
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and the Institute of World Economy
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE Major General
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat
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