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Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Pres
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***** Comments pertaining to this r
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Part III 6. Caught between Scylla a
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INTRODUCTION As of November 2010, t
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future reductions to a 1,000 warhea
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CHAPTER 1 RUSSIAN NUCLEAR AND CONVE
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States (CIS). For a number of reaso
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with nuclear weapons alone. General
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cratic politics that Kvashnin revel
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PUTIN AND THE MILITARY DOCTRINE OF
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sequences flowing therefrom.” 22
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its rightful conclusion.” 29 In t
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The words about the priority of nuc
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If the constant failures by the Bul
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LONG-RANGE AVIATION Using the one o
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prepare themselves against.” 51 A
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that day the directorates were enga
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USING STRATEGIC NUCLEAR FORCES TO O
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2. Vladimir Dvorkin, “Russia’s
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28. “Hope Glimmers for Reform,”
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53. “The Military Doctrine of the
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mittee, and Viktor Ozerov, the Head
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1,107 as of September 1, 2008, to 8
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Implementation. Chief of the Genera
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has not been followed by any obviou
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ficers compared with society and th
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Many of these challenges are unlike
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36. See Andre de Nesnera, “Who Is
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53. See Robert Legvold, “Russia
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67. See Nikolai Sokov, “The Russi
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78. Vladimir Dvorkin, “START on t
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99. “The First-Strike Doctrine,
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117 . Vladimir Putin, “Speech and
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CHAPTER 4 RUSSIA’S SECURITY RELAT
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North Atlantic Treaty Organization
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conceptualized as an energy super-p
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This great variety of poorly specif
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ility cannot be created by declarin
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forces would make nuclear capabilit
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a) preventing the United States fro
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don the INF Treaty, particularly si
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the same time, a nuclear-armed Iran
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to figure out which combination of
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3. A key proponent of this view is
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17. See Sergei Zhuravlev, “On com
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31. Mikhail Gorbachev has recently
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Internet forums will find participa
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Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (
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7. The current trends will make Rus
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future international system as base
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eration and war prevention: this be
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led Russian military planners to re
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In a review of an unpublished early
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• It is assumed that if Russia ca
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against Russia or its allies, nucle
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esistance by Russian conventional f
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on nuclear weapons alone is simply
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under which these weapons could be
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mid-1990s during debates about poss
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ern theaters differ by the nature o
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it. It is commonly believed that Ru
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portant player, has many other more
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service time is regularly extended,
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production of Topol (SS-25) was rep
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MIRVed ICBM and even the rail-mobil
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submarine in the new class, Yuri Do
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the 2000s, the Air Force became the
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MISSILE DEFENSE IN U.S.-RUSSIAN REL
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plans. Concern about future capabil
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a positive first step toward a fina
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of the defense system (and have the
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In the absence of a final solution,
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the moment. By and large, this conc
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it was fairly often reported in the
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or more years. Given multiple delay
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they were part of Russian desire to
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anks of retired generals who claime
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exists an important asymmetry: Whil
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11. Sergei Ivanov’s statement at
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31. Vadim Smirnov, “Kalinigradski
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42. The National Resource Defense C
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62. RIA-Novosti, July 24, 2008 63.
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Ru, February 16, 2007; Nikolai Poro
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e assumed that Russia has never bee
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sue their policy of military superi
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other is to try and return to the p
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America was actively trying to stea
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The Military Doctrine provides a vi
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the importance of a transformation
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• Henceforth, all military units
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the Air Force is reported to be rec
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military’s conventional capabilit
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Missile (ABM) Treaty and refusal to
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As the self-perceived isolated grea
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military security challenges of the
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military. Technology limitations, i
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Russia needs either to build a conv
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19. Vladimir Isachenkov, “Former
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CHAPTER 7 RUSSIA AND NUCLEAR WEAPON
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centered on the real possibility of
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conventional wars. The public debat
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have been a much more robust high-t
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Even though defense spending has be
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Medvedev announced in May 2010 subs
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NATO/U.S. and Chinese air and other
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assert Russia’s identity as a gre
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Russian political system which cann
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leaders like Lieutenant General Yev
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to maintain parity are now being in
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tially hostile forces in both the e
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Security Advisor James L. Jones,
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fenses once this treaty is ratified
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that having created an umbrella aga
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Army (PLA). 97 Similarly, proof of
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interference. In political terms, i
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Russia to apply them in order to ma
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The asymmetric escalation posture i
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Finally, we must understand that Ru
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this Russian statement essentially
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consequences of the Democratic Peop
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ate a real strategic partnership th
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Neither are Russian military analys
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consequences of NATO enlargement, t
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Russia’s reaction to Asian milita
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Russian commentators noted that he
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CONCLUSIONS Nuclear weapons issues
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4. Military Doctrine of the Russian
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2008, pp. 97-128; Stanislav Secrier
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48. Colin Gray, House of Cards, Ith
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69. Transcript of Remarks and Respo
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87. “Interview with Foreign Minis
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110. “Russia RVSN Military Academ
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133. Jonathan Pollack, “U.S. Stra
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Taiwan Strait and the Future of Chi
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN TACTICAL NUCLEAR
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ased Intercontinental Ballistic Mis
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also not well enforced. The Nuclear
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The Soviet and Russian Armed Forces
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nuclear expert Alexei Arbatov confi
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• large-scale conflicts such as W
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preemptive strike, is not ruled out
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Asia, Russian leaders see resorting
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In response, Russian leaders threat
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any such intent. In July 2010, Alek
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tional conflict that Russia risked
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etween signaling Moscow’s serious
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to bring to reason anyone who could
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than the existing PNIs, which lack
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taken place or are in the process o
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in the next round of U.S.-Russian a
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and Britain characterize their nucl
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e dealt with as part of the NATO-Ru
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CONCLUSION: NUCLEAR POSSIBILITIES A
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a majority of Russian respondents (
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7. Sergei Zhuravlev, “On Combat R
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23. See for example: “The Nationa
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available from www.nytimes.com/2008
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Ogaryovo, June 9, 2006, President o
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72. “Russia Warns U.S. about Weap
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news%5D=34834&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5
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currency. Russian-American strategi
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The U.S. will continue to deploy an
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noted that U.S. policy was generall
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to create a conventional-nuclear fi
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achieve transformative goals in the
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West is taking place within a large
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U.S nuclear weapons during the Cold
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States to repatriate or destroy all
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In doing so, the leaders of Russia
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to reducing the numbers of deployed
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United States July 2009 Old START l
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(4) forces are on day to day alert
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1,000 instead of 1,550? In Figures
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possible concert with sympathetic K
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The findings in Figure 9-6 show tha
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the problem, from a Russian perspec
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6. Robert M. Gates, “The Case for
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14. Daryl G. Kimball, “Obama’s
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27. According to some experts, Russ
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44. See George Perkovich, “After
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56. An argument in favor of a multi
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multipolar context and speaks of Ru
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For well over 2 decades, Soviet and
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strikes seemed to have been designe
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als, since combat potential, when n
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The gamble on the nature of future
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FACING WEST AND EAST For Russia, wh
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tional system had shifted to a unip
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cal Islamic elements there and acro
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gic mobility and underscored the ne
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the transportation infrastructure t
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tion of China as a strategic threat
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concerns have become greater as the
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eforms of the Russian military, off
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ing tasks with small subunits. We h
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American superpower. In 2002, Nikon
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nario had left open the interventio
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der Guards, speak of Chinese effort
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military. In the absence of such a
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formed conventional forces might ac
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15. On the facilities in these two
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Daalder, The CFE Treaty: An Overvie
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57. “Vostok-2010 bez konkretnykh
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ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS STEPHEN J. B
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the U.S. Government as the director
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seminal chapter in a forthcoming bo
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Eurasia (2008); Mismanaging Mayhem:
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U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE This Publicat