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Joint modelling of transit and stellar temperature using an MCMC ...

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CHAPTER 6. JOINT MODELLING OF TRANSIT AND STELLAR TEMPERATURE USING AN <strong>MCMC</strong> APPROACH 171<br />

on the T eff is used, the number <strong>of</strong> accepted steps decreases due to the additional<br />

constraint on the T eff . If less steps are accepted, a longer chain is needed to keep<br />

the statistic <strong>of</strong> the posterior distributions robust. To avoid having to run longer chains,<br />

two adjustments are made to increase the number <strong>of</strong> accepted steps when a prior on<br />

the T eff is applied. First, prior to running the chain, the <strong>stellar</strong> evolution model file was<br />

re-arr<strong>an</strong>ged to keep only the models with a T eff at the prior <strong>temperature</strong> plus or minus<br />

4× the uncertainty on this prior, so that when stepping in k the T eff <strong>of</strong> more models will<br />

be compatible with the prior on the T eff . Secondly, the scale size in k was reduced to<br />

100.<br />

The pl<strong>an</strong>etary parameters (T 0 , R p /R , b) from Alonso et al. (2008) were first used<br />

as initial values to run the <strong>MCMC</strong>. The <strong>MCMC</strong> tr<strong>an</strong>slates k into a/R <strong>using</strong> <strong>stellar</strong> evolution<br />

models, <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> b <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> a/R into i. As the sampling <strong>of</strong> the grid in the <strong>stellar</strong> evolution<br />

models is finite, the derived a/R <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> i do not correspond exactly to the values<br />

in the discovery paper, <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> the <strong>tr<strong>an</strong>sit</strong> model derived from these value is too<br />

different from the data (large χ 2 ) to allow the <strong>MCMC</strong> to start.<br />

The initial parameters<br />

used are T 0 from the discovery paper, b=0.05, R p /R =0.16, <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> k=509965 (no prior<br />

on T eff ) or k=81492 (prior on T eff ). k=509965 correspond to T eff =5521 K, M =0.888 M ⊙ ,<br />

R =0.881 R ⊙ in the full <strong>stellar</strong> evolution model file used. k = 81492 corresponds to the<br />

same model in the file re-arr<strong>an</strong>ged to increase the number <strong>of</strong> accepted steps when<br />

<strong>using</strong> a prior on the T eff . T eff =5521 K is the closest to T eff =5516±33 K in our list <strong>of</strong> <strong>stellar</strong><br />

evolution models. M =0.888 M ⊙ <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> R =0.881 R ⊙ are the closest to R =(0.88±0.03)R ⊙<br />

<strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> M =(0.89±0.09)M ⊙ corresponding to T eff =5516±33 K. The corresponding R is calculated<br />

<strong>using</strong> L =4πσR 2 T 4 eff . L calculated <strong>using</strong> the values in Alonso et al. (2008):<br />

R =(0.90±0.02)R ⊙ <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> T eff =5625±120 K . The corresponding M is derived from the<br />

r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> models in Padova2002 corresponding to the r<strong>an</strong>ge in T eff <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> R .<br />

Three chains <strong>of</strong> 500000 iterations each are run simult<strong>an</strong>eously with different starting<br />

points, all starting points being within a scale size from the initial value. The first 7000<br />

steps <strong>of</strong> each chain are cut away, as considered part <strong>of</strong> the burn-in phase. A visual<br />

check <strong>of</strong> the chains, showed that it takes that m<strong>an</strong>y steps for a chain to fall within<br />

the 1σ r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> the total chain. These chains are then compared to each other <strong>using</strong><br />

Gelm<strong>an</strong> <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> Rubin’s statistic (described in section 6.1.6) to check their convergence.<br />

If the convergence criteria is reached, the three chains are combined together (put<br />

one after the other) to form a longer chain, statistically more robust. The distribution<br />

<strong>of</strong> the values stored in the <strong>MCMC</strong> chain for each parameter is plotted, <strong><strong>an</strong>d</strong> used to<br />

derive the 1σ uncertainty r<strong>an</strong>ge <strong>of</strong> each parameter as described in Section 6.1.7.

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