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Exploring the Unknown: Selected Documents in ... - The Black Vault

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<strong>Explor<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>Unknown</strong> 181<br />

and <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> provision of alternative modes of procedure. Thus, <strong>the</strong>re is both an<br />

automatic control system and an essentially <strong>in</strong>dependent manual control system;<br />

<strong>the</strong>re are regular and emergency oxygen supplies, two modes of egress, and<br />

<strong>the</strong> like. Such redundancy is a standard and effective way of creat<strong>in</strong>g over-all<br />

reliability with <strong>the</strong> use of <strong>in</strong>dividually less than perfect components. It is necessary<br />

to keep this consideration <strong>in</strong> m<strong>in</strong>d when exam<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g reliabilities of <strong>in</strong>dividual<br />

components. [5]<br />

2. Subsystem reliabilities<br />

<strong>The</strong> subsystems are common to both <strong>the</strong> orbital and ballistic missions,<br />

and hence at this po<strong>in</strong>t it is not necessary to make a dist<strong>in</strong>ction between <strong>the</strong><br />

Redstone and Atlas missions. When <strong>the</strong> ultimate probabilities of mission success<br />

and astronaut survival are considered, <strong>the</strong> dist<strong>in</strong>ction is, of course, a very<br />

important one.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re is a considerable body of test data on components and subsystems<br />

to which <strong>the</strong> panel has had access. Also, both NASA and McDonnell perform<br />

cont<strong>in</strong>u<strong>in</strong>g reliability analyses of <strong>the</strong> over-all system on <strong>the</strong> basis of <strong>the</strong>se data.<br />

For present purposes, it seems undesirable to present such detailed analyses,<br />

even <strong>in</strong> summary form. What follows, <strong>the</strong>n, represents a distillation <strong>in</strong>to very<br />

general terms of <strong>the</strong> Panel’s considered reaction to <strong>the</strong>se data. Reliabilities are<br />

aggregated <strong>in</strong>to three categories:<br />

Class<br />

Reliability Range<br />

Class 1 95 – 100%<br />

Class 2 85 – 95%<br />

Class 3 70 – 85%<br />

<strong>The</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g chart <strong>in</strong>dicates <strong>the</strong> major subsystems and lists our judgment<br />

of <strong>the</strong> reliability of each. It should be emphasized that <strong>the</strong> numerical categorization<br />

<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> chart is <strong>the</strong> result not of calculations but ra<strong>the</strong>r of <strong>the</strong> subjective judgment<br />

of <strong>the</strong> panel. Follow<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> chart is a brief discussion of certa<strong>in</strong> of its entries.<br />

Those to be discussed are marked by and asterisk.<br />

[6]<br />

Subsystem or Component<br />

Reliability Category<br />

Capsule structure and<br />

Class 1<br />

re-entry properties<br />

Separation mechanism and<br />

Class 1<br />

Posigrade Rocket<br />

Tower and Abort Rockets Class 1<br />

Voice Communications Class 1<br />

*Abort sens<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>strumentation<br />

Class 1<br />

system

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