Exploring the Unknown: Selected Documents in ... - The Black Vault

Exploring the Unknown 609
Mueller’s approach was strongly resisted by both the Marshall Space Flight Center and the
Manned Spacecraft Center, but Mueller, who soon after this memorandum was written
became Associate Administrator for Manned Space Flight, was a strong-willed individual
whose views eventually prevailed. The “all-up” decision is regarded by many as key to the
United States being able to reach the Moon “before this decade is out.”
Document II-36
APOLLO SCHEDULE AND COST EVALUATION
OBJECTIVES
• PROVIDE A REALISTIC ESTIMATE WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
(~50%) OF THE EARLIEST DATE FOR THE FIRST LUNAR LANDING
ATTEMPT
• PROVIDE A CORRESPONDING PROGRAM COST ESTIMATE
• ASSESS TIME AND COST INCREASES REQUIRED TO RAISE
CONFIDENCE TO A HIGH LEVEL (~90%)
• ESTIMATE ADDITIONAL COSTS OF WORK WHICH COULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE LEVEL OF EARLIEST DATE
APOLLO SCHEDULE AND COST EVALUATION GROUND RULES
• NO BASIC CHANGE IN TECHNICAL CONCEPT OR APPROACH
• PERSONNEL CEILING FIXED AT FY 65 LEVEL
• FY 64 AND FY 65 FUNDING AT GUIDLINE LEVELS
• FY 66 AND SUBSEQUENT R&D FUNDING CEILING OF $3.00 BILLION
PER YEAR (INCLUDES ADVANCED PROGRAM)
• CONTINUATION OF DX PRIORITY
• NORMAL PROCUREMENT LEAD TIMES
• TWO SCHEDULED FLIGHTS REQUIRED FOR ACCOMPLISHMENT
OF EACH FLIGHT MISSION
• MAXIMUM FREQUENCY FOR MANNED FLIGHTS OF FOUR PER YEAR
• INFLATION FACTORS NOT CONSIDERED
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
• If funding constraints assumed herein prevail, lunar landing cannot likely
be attained within the decade with acceptable risk.
• First attempt to land men on moon is likely about late 1971 under study
guideline funding and constraints.
• Program cost through initial lunar landing attempt will approximate 24
billion dollars (R&D Direct only)
• Progress on program inadequate to provide schedule associated with
90% confidence.
• Projection of lunar landing attempt on early manned Saturn V unrealistic
in terms of probable technical problems.