Joseph T. Nall Report - Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association

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Analysis Analysis I NTERPRETING AVIATION A CCIDENT S TATISTICS Everyone has heard about “the accident rate,” but what does that really mean? How do we compare statistics and arrive at conclusions? To be meaningful, comparisons must be based upon equal exposure to risk. However, this alone does not determine total risk. Reduction factors such as experience, proficiency, equipment, and flight conditions can have significant positive safety impact. To compare different airplanes, pilots, types of operations, etc., in terms of their accident involvement, we must first level the playing field in terms of exposure to risk. Statisticians call this normalizing. The most common way to normalize factors for aviation safety is to compare accidents per 100,000 flight hours. This report uses percentages to show which portions of accidents were attributed to particular causes, as well as which portions of accident sequences began in a particular phase of flight. These figures may be used to estimate conditional probabilities. In other words, given an accident that has occurred, what is the probability that it was the result of weather, stall/spin, etc.? This type of analysis makes it easier to identify and concentrate on the accident factors that carry the greatest risk. Caution must be used in interpreting percentages based on small numbers of events. When this is the case a small number warning will be associated with the data. In some areas, the relative magnitude of data is more important than the absolute number. S EQUENCE OF E VENTS AND A CCIDENT C AUSALITY In its studies of accidents involving large transport-category aircraft, the Boeing Commercial Airplane Company found that most accidents result from a sequence of events rather than a single catastrophic event. Boeing’s research identified as many as 20 events in the course of a single flight that had a direct impact upon the outcome. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) uses a similar method to break down each accident into “occurrences.” In this report, the emphasis is on identifying the phase of flight in which the sequence of events began, often referred to as the “first occurrence,” and on the types of problems encountered by the pilots. The objective is to find lessons that can be used to prevent future accidents. This report uses a simple, single-cause/factor classification scheme. These analyses are based on a combination of fully investigated final and factual reports from the NTSB. If these reports were not available, preliminary reports, describing the accident and providing basic descriptive data, were used. 6
Overview Overview of Accident Trends and Factors for 1999 1999 STATISTICS The FAA’s estimate of flight hours increased from 26.8 million in 1998 to 27.1 million in 1999. The GA accident rate per 100,000 flying hours declined slightly in 1999 compared to previous years because the number of accidents remained 10 8 US General Aviation Accidents Per 100,000 Hours Total Fatal 7.05 fairly steady despite a higher number of hours flown that year. 6 The GA accident statistics below are derived from NTSB accident reports. To make this report 4 more timely, a small number of preliminary reports (19.3 percent) were analyzed and these may cause 2 1.26 minor fluctuations in the data once final reports are completed. 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 A CCIDENT S TATISTICS Past Nine Years 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Total fixed-wing GA accidents 1,897 1,837 1,808 1,741 1,853 1,781 1,642 1,679 1,701 Fatal fixed-wing GA accidents 394 407 360 354 383 355 331 341 320 Total fixed-wing GA fatalities 724 798 652 641 679 653 667 619 632 Estimated GA flight hours 27.2M 24.8M 22.8M 22.2M 24.9M 24.9M 25.5M 26.8M 27.1M 7
Page 2 and 3: Dedication Joseph T. Nall The Josep
Page 4 and 5: Overview E X E C U T I V E 4 Genera
Page 8 and 9: Overview 15 12 9 6 3 0 1974 1979 A
Page 10 and 11: Overview 10 Percent 80 70.5% 60 40
Page 12 and 13: M Causes A J O R A and Factors C C
Page 14 and 15: Pilot Involvement Preflight/Taxi Ta
Page 16 and 17: Pilot Involvement Preflight/Taxi Ta
Page 18 and 19: Accident F Factors A T A L Percent
Page 20 and 21: Accident F Factors A T A L VFR in I
Page 22 and 23: Accident F Factors A T A L Improper
Page 24 and 25: Accident O Factors T H E R Percent
Page 26 and 27: Homebuilt Aircraft Preflight/Taxi 4
Page 28 and 29: Questions F R E Q U E N T L Y A S K
Page 30 and 31: Definitions N T S B Aerial Applicat
Page 32: AOPA Air Safety Foundation 421 Avia

Joseph T. Nall Report - Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association

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