Automotive inSIGHTS 1/2009 - Roland Berger

AUTOMOTIVE
Automotive Competence Center Client Magazine No. 01_2009
> How to navigate the global crisis – Three possible scenarios
> Automotive suppliers: Historic profit washout
> Truck industry 2020: The future is global

Editorial
Contents
1 News
A look around the world
USA: The dual challenge
4 How to navigate the global crisis –
Three possible scenarios
Dear Reader,
The automotive industry is facing exceptionally difficult and
volatile business conditions, making it harder to plan for the
months ahead. With fast changes in economic and industry
conditions, the danger of generating misleading targets grows.
In this new issue of Automotive inSIGHTS we provide our ideas
how to improve forecasting and how to apply the scenario
technique to prepare for the future.
These are tough times - OEMs, suppliers, importers and retailers
alike face enormous pressure.
But the automotive industry has always been forced to adjust to
significant changes in overall market conditions. We are confident
that now the basis for a structurally stronger industry is built. In
numerous projects, we support the key players in reshaping the
key industry in almost all industrialized economies.
10 Automotive suppliers: Historic profit
washout
16 Books & studies
Famous cars: Jaguar XK 150 S
Roadster
18 Powertrain 2020 – Challenges and
opportunities for OEMs and suppliers
22 Truck industry 2020: The future
is global
26 Match Point Management – More
revenues, more efficiency
31 Contacts
Sincerely,
Ralf Kalmbach
Published by:
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants GmbH,
Mies-van-der-Rohe-Straße 6, 80307 München
Editors-in-chief:
Ralf Kalmbach and Ralf Landmann
Editors:
Dana Rehfuß and Roland Berger Language Service
Layout:
RB_DesignTeam
Printed by:
Girodruck, Hamburg
Circulation:
3,500 Published three times a year
No reprints without prior permission of the publisher

News
A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD
The dual challenge: Responding to an unprecedented market
downturn while continuing to invest in new technologies
Almost every automaker from GM and Ford to China-based
BYD unveiled plans to create a mass-produced electric
vehicle within two or three years. Instead of a Dodge cattle
drive through downtown streets, a test track in the basement
of COBO Hall was designed to test drive electric
vehicles – and public interest was accordingly high.
Manufacturers and suppliers in the automotive industry
must align and restructure their operations to survive
the current downturn – while still investing in and
preparing for a major shift in powertrain technology
to remain viable. The current development provides
an opportunity for US automakers to return to
sustainable and ultimately profitable growth.
Last year the global automotive industry suffered its worst
crisis in decades. The whirlwind of exploding commodity
prices followed by frozen credit markets and depressionlevel
demand sent many players into severe financial
distress. 2009 has started with enormous uncertainty
about the financial and market environments, and may
become an even more challenging year than 2008. The
US market in particular has been heavily affected by the
current development. After falling to a 27-year low in the
fourth quarter of 2008, demand for US light vehicles and
trucks is expected to further weaken during the first
months of 2009.
North American International Auto Show reflecting
current challenges
No wonder, then, that the Detroit auto show was somewhat
different this year. Automakers tried to be prudent,
not blazing through marketing dollars. The show turned
out to be less exuberant but also more rational, with a
strong focus on (and hope in) electrification.
The race to go electric seems to be truly on, and for
good reason: Despite the global economic crisis, automotive
players have to invest in new technologies such
as advanced propulsion systems and electric vehicles to
keep pace with competition and to prepare for changing
environmental legislation and volatile fuel prices. With the
current average vehicle weight, it would be impossible for
automakers to meet European or US emissions regulations
by 2015 without having zero-emissions cars in their
portfolio.
A renaissance for the US automotive industry?
Detroit's Big Three appeared to be at the forefront of incumbent
OEMs going electric. Kept in business by USD 17
billion in government loans, they were showing off electric
vehicles at the auto show that stretch the limits of current
technology. With the introduction of the Chevrolet Volt
and many other plug-ins, they present themselves as
the leaders in zero-emission technology – catching up
to, if not overtaking, the Europeans and Japanese in the
race towards fuel-efficient and clean vehicles.
Can the electric race help the struggling US automotive
industry to gain a competitive edge or even leapfrog the
competition? There is no doubt that the US automotive
industry has accepted the challenge to prove its long-term
viability – even though market conditions for electric
vehicles seem to be less auspicious than they are in
Europe, for example. We still see much uncertainty in the
US market, especially with regard to consumer behavior.
With the current downturn in energy prices, the US market
is again facing a slowdown in electrification. As gas has
fallen from its peak in July of over USD 4 to well under
USD 2 a gallon, consumers have quickly returned to their
old habits – and the US market share for small and fuelefficient
vehicles, which rose to 25% last summer, has
already returned to its pre-summer level of about 15%.
1

A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD
The dual challenge: Responding to an unprecedented market
downturn while continuing to invest in new technologies
Current legislation in the US is not expected to reverse this
trend in the long term. Neither the 2020 US CAFE standard
of 254g CO 2 emissions per mile nor the California target
of 213g are close to the stricter targets in Europe, where
automakers have to meet a standard of 152g CO 2 per mile
for their sales-weighted vehicle fleet in 2020. The new
Obama administration's recent announcement to further
toughen standards, coupled with the need to satisfy
different legislations within one country, makes developing
electric vehicles even more challenging for automakers.
Weaker regulations and lower fuel prices are the main
reasons why we put penetration of electric vehicles in the
US with 12% in 2020 at a slower pace than in Western
Europe, where we anticipate 22% within the same
timeframe.
The dual challenge is on, fortified by the current crisis
In addition to the industry downturn, manufacturers have
to handle an increasingly complex technology portfolio,
focusing both on a broad model lineup with increasing
sophistication of internal combustion engines and on
alternative propulsion systems including fully electric
drive trains at the same time. The resulting complexity
can no longer be handled in an economically viable way.
The current subprime crisis, with its even tougher
restrictions on funds, has suppressed in the real economy
and particularly adds to this challenge. For continued
long-term viability, automotive companies must overcome
the dual challenge of surviving the downturn
while investing in the future with the right technologies.
Crisis provides chance – Electrification will change
the automotive industry and offers opportunities for
all players
In an environment of rapidly changing business dynamics,
all players in the automotive industry need to understand
how to capitalize on and take advantage of the development
in order to achieve and maintain market leadership.
The US automotive industry especially is facing the
challenge of finding itself behind the curve relative to its
Asian and European competitors: after oil prices spiked
in the 70s and early 80s and the gas prices subsequently
declined, consumers returned to their traditional habits
and preferences for bigger and higher-consuming vehicles.
In turn, so did the American manufacturers, slowing down
their efforts to invest in new technologies and develop
alternative propulsion systems. There is a significant risk
that this scenario will repeat itself.
2

A LOOK AROUND THE WORLD
New players have already started creating emerging business
models to address the critical issues of lifecycle cost,
performance characteristics and charging infrastructure.
For example, Fisker Automotive has revolutionized the
whole automotive design and production value chain. With
only 100 employees, they designed the Fisker Karma and
outsourced complete production to Valmet in Finland.
According to Fisker, 1,000 orders for the luxury plug-in
hybrid have been received since the prototype debuted at
the 2008 Detroit show, while delivery is scheduled for the
fourth quarter of 2009. In addition to new production and
development models, new business models will evolve
which have the potential to change traditional marketing,
distribution and usage. We see new players arising, offering
vehicle and battery leases in partnership with utilities.
Similar initiatives will follow, and we see the new US
administration as a strong promoter of this change,
setting the pace on a global scale and thus helping the
US automotive industry to return to leadership. The current
electrification provides an opportunity to revolutionize the
whole automotive industry and thus offers opportunities
for all those players who adapt their business models to
the changing environment.
New powertrain technologies, electric vehicles and the
supporting infrastructure will remain top priorities on the
agenda, not only within the automotive industry. Detroit
and Geneva were only the first steps. We are looking
forward to how the industry will further respond to the
dual challenge of riding out the current market crisis
while continuing to invest in advanced technologies.
The anticipated development of the automotive industry
has already started to become reality with a first wave of
pilot projects. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger
and the mayors of San Francisco, San Jose and Oakland
have announced a collaboration with Better Place for
deploying a charging and battery exchange infrastructure
and encouraging the installment of charging equipment
in homes, parking lots and businesses. For this project,
they plan to provide an initial USD 1 billion. This is only
one example of how the future industry might look when
the battery is separated from the car and transportation
is seen as a sustainable service.
Juergen Reers
Partner at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Detroit
juergen_reers@us.rolandberger.com
Thomas F. Wendt
Senior Project Manager at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Detroit
thomas_wendt@us.rolandberger.com
3

HOW TO NAVIGATE THE GLOBAL
CRISIS
Three possible scenarios
A year ago the economy was still in full swing. But in
fall 2008 the financial crisis spiraled with breathtaking
speed into an unforeseen downturn in the global
economy. Developed and emerging markets alike are
feeling the effect – and will continue to do so over
the next several years. The automotive industry is
no exception, and it is now caught in a vicious circle
that has affected all major players.
The automotive industry was already vulnerable due to
structural problems such as overcapacity in production,
inefficient dealer networks and a struggling supplier
industry. It was therefore hit particularly hard by the
current crisis. Combined with the harsh decline in
consumer confidence, these structural problems led to
a severe downturn in sales volumes in all major markets
by the end of 2008 (e.g. Europe -4.5%, North America
-15.4% and Japan -2.6% in light vehicle sales vs. 2007 1) ).
For 2009, sales are likely to decline by approximately 20%
in Western Europe. However, thanks to effective political
intervention, some countries may not be affected quite so
badly. In Germany, what's known as the "Umweltprämie" 2)
could trigger up to 300,000 new car sales, thereby
keeping sales volume at a fairly healthy level compared
to 2008. Nevertheless, a severe sales drop on a global
level can be expected. This will result in reduced demand
for supplier parts, increased volume and price pressure on
dealers, cautious credit approval by investors and lenders
and a negative impact on equipment manufacturers' order
books. Hence, industry-wide adjustments to labor costs
and workforce are being seen in many countries worldwide.
In Germany, for example, Roland Berger analyses show
that due to the crisis, approximately 8% of all jobs in the
automotive industry (equal to about 87,000 employees)
are at risk. Given a 20% decline in 2009 production,
significant workforce reductions are expected up
through 2011:
OEMs may cut up to 6% (approximately 24,000 employees)
and suppliers about 10% (31,000 employees). In
trade, up to 10% of businesses (equal to about 1,600
companies) and 10% of the workforce (32,000 employees)
will be endangered by 2011 3) . This will further
undermine consumer confidence in the economic
situation and accelerate the vicious circle in
the automotive industry.
The sales decline in 2008 caused by the financial crisis
corresponds to major crises of the past decades. However,
there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding how the
current crisis will evolve. Specifically, two major factors
that affect sales volume remain uncertain: the depth and
the duration of the crisis. To what extent will passenger car
sales drop, and when can a sales recovery be expected at
the earliest? In addition, it is uncertain what government
regulations worldwide during and after the crisis might
be, and how effective they will be. Top executives in the
automotive industry are facing more uncertainty than ever
before, with no easy way out. Nevertheless, whatever the
future brings, thinking ahead and preparing for different
potential answers will be crucial for business success.
To provide some guidance on how to successfully manage
the crisis, while at the same time leveraging the attractive
long-term opportunities arising from it, we have developed
three scenarios for the global economic development of
the crisis.
Three scenarios for times of crisis
In our analysis, we focus on factors that drive the global
economic development in five sectors: society, technology,
economy, environment and politics. For instance, one
factor is the intensity of government foreign trade
regulations. Future outcomes range from increasing
liberalization to comply with existing WTO standards,
to strong protectionism in a variety of regulated
industries and regions.
4
1) Data from JD Power global light vehicle sales forecast Q4 2008, status as of January 2009
2) The "Umweltprämie" or "environmental bonus" is a EUR 2,500 government subsidy given to anyone exchanging a car that is at least nine years
old for a new one or an at most one year old car that complies with the EURO 4 norm
3) Status as of December 2008: Passenger cars/LCVs – approx. 383,000 employees; trucks – approx. 40,000 employees; suppliers – approx.
322,000 employees; trade – approx. 16,000 businesses (all outlets from A and B businesses with affiliates, ancillaries and subsidiaries)
and 319,000 employees (sources: VDA Annual Report 2008 and publicly available statistics)

HOW TO NAVIGATE THE GLOBAL
CRISIS
Global economic growth falls to between -0.2% and 0.5%
in 2009 (-2% in Germany), but recovers in 2010 with a
growth rate of 2.0% (0.8% in Germany). Different parts
of the world are hit differently: Europe's economies
suffer considerably (European Union 2009f: -1.3%); the
situation in the US and Japan is even worse (US 2009f:
-1.8%, Japan: -1.7%), though they recover relatively
quickly thanks to effective state intervention (US 2010f:
2.3%, Japan 2010f: 1.1%); while countries like China
and India keep the global economy going (see table 1).
Based on the variety of possible combinations of all
relevant factors, we have drawn up three scenarios:
Short recession, Deep recession and Depression.
Short recession
In this scenario, the crisis on the financial markets and
the real economy (a two-dimensional crisis) lasts one
and a half years with a recovery by the end of 2009 4) .
Some economies experience negative growth for several
quarters, but the economy does not remain weak for long.
Governments worldwide interact intensively, and their
rescue packages (guarantees, cash injections, government
holdings), combined with emergency action by central
banks (cutting interest rates, increasing the money supply
and injecting cash), prevent a further downward spiral.
Politicians acting quickly and in concert soon restore
confidence among the players in different markets –
savers, consumers, investors and businesses. Only a few
countries resort to protectionism. Such trends are visible
in France and – depending on the new administration –
in the US. As a result of the crisis, some countries alter
their climate regulations (see table 2).
Mainly due to government intervention, the damage to
the economy is containable. Unemployment worldwide
rises only a little. In some countries, especially where
labor markets are flexible like in the US, there is a stronger
increase (2008e: 5.7% to 2009f: 8.0%). In Germany,
moderate wage settlements and the intensive use of
short-time work keep unemployment rates moderate
(2008e: 7.9% to 2009f: 8.4%) (see figure 1).
4) Start of crisis in mid-2008. End of crisis is reached when selected indicators reach specified threshold values in two following quarters
5

HOW TO NAVIGATE THE GLOBAL
CRISIS
Inflation remains relatively low and disposable income
falls slightly. Overall, consumers keep on consuming at
a fairly well level. The stock and commodities markets
remain very volatile, though commodity prices tend to
fall (e.g. oil price during the crisis estimated at 45-55
USD/bbl) (see figure 2). From a business perspective,
liquidity and refinancing problems arise, but can be
resolved.
Deep recession
In this scenario, the crisis (also two-dimensional) lasts
two years, ending by mid-2010. The crisis is deeper and
longer than in the previous scenario, and most industries
and regions of the world are affected. The global economy
shrinks, with GDP falling to between -0.5% to 0% in
2009 worldwide (-2.5% to -3.5% in Germany). The
development of Europe's economies is similar to that
of the previous scenario, but the impact on the US and
Japan is much greater. Emerging and developing countries
keep on growing, albeit at a considerably lower rate than
in previous years. The relationship between state and
market shifts even more toward the state, which regulates
more tightly. However, government rescue packages and
economic programs can only soften the effects of the
crisis. In contrast to the previous scenario, the strong
industry- specific subsidies that mainly aim at preserving
old structures actually have a negative impact on the
economy. Some major economies also revert to protectionist
tendencies, by e.g. raising import duties
in selected regions and industries.
Thus global unemployment rises sharply, especially
in flexible labor markets such as the US. Inflation falls
and disposable income shrinks. As a result, consumer
confidence worldwide is severely damaged, and people
save more. Business is under severe pressure: sales and
profits collapse, restructuring is necessary and many
companies become insolvent. Consumers, investors
and businesses regain confidence only very slowly.
Depression
In this scenario, the crisis lasts at least three years through
mid-2011. The long-lasting financial and real economic
crisis causes a crisis in the economic system (a threedimensional
crisis). The world economy is hit hard, and all
industries and regions of the world are affected. The global
economy shrinks radically several years in a row (GDP
falls to between -1.0% and -0.5%). Even growth rates in
emerging countries collapse. Government and monetary
policy interventions are massive, but even actions as
drastic as nationalizing a large number of companies have
hardly any impact. After a few years, governments have no
money left to support the economy, causing a fundamental
loss of confidence in the political system. Large-scale
protectionism undermines the international community
of states (e.g. 100% "local content" in some industries).
Organizations such as the European Union come under
heavy pressure from their member countries. Some
countries even drop out of the EU and the single currency
agreement. The symptoms of the crisis are much worse
than any global economic crisis in the past seventy years.
6

HOW TO NAVIGATE THE GLOBAL
CRISIS
Unemployment soars, doubling or even tripling what it
was in 2008, consumer confidence reaches rock-bottom
and many other key indicators point downward. Climate
regulations are frozen at the 2008 level, and previously
proposed regulations do not come into effect. A wave of
insolvencies sweeps over all industries, provoking chaotic
business conditions around the globe. Domino effects
put even healthy businesses under huge pressure as their
markets fail and their main suppliers topple. It is a very
long time before savers, consumers, investors and
businesses regain any confidence at all (figure 3).
7

HOW TO NAVIGATE THE GLOBAL
CRISIS
Due to the high degree of uncertainty concerning the
likelihood of these scenarios, businesses would do well
to prepare for all of them. But what does this mean for the
global automotive industry? Using our three scenarios as
a starting point, we analyzed the volume implications for
global passenger car sales through 2020. Based on the
short recession scenario, global passenger car sales
bottom out in 2009.
After the crisis has passed, sales quickly increase again.
The deep recession scenario implies a low point for
passenger car sales in 2010. After the crisis, the market
recovery is similar to that in the previous scenario, but with
a moderate time lag. The implications of the depression
scenario are by far the most drastic. Passenger car sales
reach a low point in 2010, and sales recover slowly and
to a much lower level than in the previous scenarios.
Taking these developments into account, top automotive
executives should assess the detailed consequences
for their focus regions, segments, brands and products
(see figure 4).
Think ahead with specific action plans
The current crisis is a threat to the automotive industry. Yet
it also offers some attractive opportunities. Top executives
have to overcome the paralysis caused by uncertainty and
take action to prepare for the future. For each scenario,
they should develop a clear action plan outlining how the
business can best prepare for the challenges. These action
plans should indicate precisely what steps have to be
taken at what point in time. Having such plans in place
enables businesses to act quickly and decisively when
a scenario becomes reality. Transition paths should also
be defined, so that companies can respond quickly if
one scenario suddenly diverges into another.
8

HOW TO NAVIGATE THE GLOBAL
CRISIS
In developing scenario-based action plans, the selection,
intensity and timeframe of actions should be closely
aligned to the specifics of each scenario. However,
some generalities should be taken into account. OEMs,
for example, should consider:
> Taking action to get back on track: Revising planning,
identifying main risks, calculating the financial gap
for the current year, adjusting production capacity,
adjusting order volumes at suppliers, focusing on
strict cash management, renegotiating covenants
with investors and lenders to optimize refinancing,
communicating proactively to create transparency
and regain trust
> Increasing efficiency: Defining cost efficiency programs
for all units, planning and implementing necessary
headcount reductions, focusing on price renegotiations
with suppliers
> Securing sales volumes: Focusing on supplier and
dealer risk management, defining and launching
specific sales programs for dealers and end customers,
securing credits from financial institutes
At the same time, OEMs should seize opportunities for
future growth. Core actions to be considered include:
> Reviewing and adjusting the current brand, product
and technology portfolio in the light of each scenario
> Intensifying product development in future technologies
(e.g. hybrid and electric cars)
> Restructuring the sales network, implementing dealer
efficiency programs and initiating support programs
for strategically important suppliers/dealers
> Adapting cost structures (headcount, capacity, etc.)
to make them sustainable and increasing workforce
flexibility
> Reviewing the operations footprint and relocating
capacities
> Seeking potential acquisition targets or considering
strategic alliances (depending on OEM specifics such
as size or financial strength)
Scenario-based action plans can guide the way through
the crisis while at the same time identifying steps to
optimally leverage attractive business opportunities.
Though there is great uncertainty about the future
business environment, top automotive executives should
act immediately in line with the severity of the current
situation. Thinking ahead and actively preparing for an
uncertain future will put the business ahead – whether
that means merely surviving the crisis or systematically
seizing attractive opportunities for future growth.
Status of February 27, 2009
Ralf H. Landmann
Partner at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Frankfurt
ralf_landmann@de.rolandberger.com
Dr. Joerg Richartz
Project Manager at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Duesseldorf
joerg_richartz@de.rolandberger.com
9

AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERS
Historic profit washout
The current downturn of car markets around the globe
has already heavily affected the financial performance
of automotive suppliers. Revenues are stagnating and
profits eroding after years of profitable growth. The
outlook for 2009 is even more pessimistic, with market
and financing conditions remaining very difficult.
To master the crisis and put themselves in pole
position for the next upswing, suppliers now need
to take immediate action to adapt their costs and
restructure their businesses.
Car sales are collapsing globally
The financial crisis started to affect the real economy
in the second half of 2008 and led to a severe economic
downturn in the fourth quarter, especially in the automotive
sector. For the first time since the early
1990s, global vehicle sales declined.
Among the triad regions, North America experienced
the biggest drop in demand. While even more small cars
were sold in 2008 than in the year before, sales of luxury
vehicles and SUVs plummeted by around 25%. Unlike in
Western Europe and Japan, the downturn had already
started early in 2008, adding up to a total decrease
of 16% for the entire year.
The decline was somewhat less in Western Europe and
Japan, mainly due to the fact that demand developed
steadily at the 2007 level during the first half of 2008. In
the fourth quarter, however, those markets also collapsed,
Western Europe ending up at 9% and Japan at 5% below
their 2007 levels on a full-year basis (see figure 1).
10

AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERS
Dramatic impact on supplier profitability in 2008
The erosion of car demand and cutbacks in production
quickly made their way into the financial statements of
automotive suppliers. Although the crisis accelerated only
in the last three months of 2008, its impact was clearly
reflected in declining supplier performance. After years
of constant revenue growth with annual rates around 8%,
the total revenue of global automotive suppliers is
estimated to shrink in 2008 compared to 2007.
Regarding profitability, the picture looks even worse.
Suppliers' profit margins were well above what OEMs
achieved – around 5% EBIT margin and up to 12% return
on capital employed since 2002. However, we foresee an
industry-wide average EBIT margin of around 3.0% in
2008 – a more than 40% drop compared to 2007
(see figure 2).
Outside the triad, some markets still enjoyed growing
demand. Sales in the BRIC countries, for example,
increased by 11% in 2008. However, the growth
expectations for many of these markets had been
much higher 12 months previously.
11

AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERS
Suppliers are facing declining margins in all triad regions.
Compared to 2007, suppliers from Japan and Korea
show the sharpest drop in profitability: their average EBIT
margin decreased from a best-in-class 6.3% in 2007 to
an estimated 3.0%. Suppliers from Western Europe and
North America also suffered from shrinking margins in
2008, although somewhat less markedly: in Western
Europe margins fell from 6.1% to around 4.0%, and
in North America from 3.9% to 2.5%.
As a result, a growing number of suppliers are currently
facing refinancing and liquidity problems. The sharp
market decline in the fourth quarter has heavily impacted
incoming payments, while many suppliers were unable to
cut variable costs at the same speed – to say nothing of
fixed costs. At the same time, the financial crisis led to a
collapse of the credit markets, making debt refinancing
much more challenging, if not impossible.
By contrast, initial figures indicate that suppliers from
emerging markets such as China and India will likely
stabilize or even slightly increase their profitability levels
compared to 2007, in line with the more positive overall
development in those markets (see figure 3).
Suppliers of all types were severely hit by the crisis – both
the top performers and the low performers. Only around
one fourth of all suppliers are likely to maintain or even
grow their EBIT margins compared to 2007.
While top performers still earn far higher profits than low
performers, the decline over the past 12 months has been
immense: from 7.5% EBIT margin in 2007 to an estimated
4.5% in 2008 – a drop of around 40%. The corresponding
margin for low performers is likely to erode only slightly
though from a much lower base, by around 0.5% to
approximately 2.0% (see figure 4).
12

AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERS
Banks are becoming stricter about their credit portfolios,
and supplier credit rankings have been downgraded
throughout almost the entire industry. As a consequence,
several companies are now on the edge of insolvency,
and some have already gone bankrupt, like TMD Friction,
Stankiewicz or SONAS Automotive. This number will
increase still further in 2009, with small and mediumsized
suppliers especially at risk.
Pessimistic outlook
The negative trend will persist throughout 2009. Volumes
are expected to be down by approximately 20-25%
compared to 2008. Some passenger car OEMs are even
expected to see a 30% decline, while truck manufacturers
are forecasting up to 50% in volume reduction.
Comparing the current crisis to previous major downturns
in the automotive industry – the oil crisis in the 1970s,
say, or the structural economic crisis in the early 1990s –
we expect it to take at least two years before the market
catches up again this time. It may even take up to four
years before the market fully recovers and car production
volumes reach their 2007 level again (see figure 5).
This is a perspective widely shared by suppliers. In a
global survey conducted at the end of 2008 among some
150 senior executives at automotive suppliers, 72% of
all respondents said that the current crisis would still be
"highly" or even "extremely" important for their companies
in three years' time.
As a consequence, virtually all suppliers will face
significant cuts in revenues compared to 2008, most likely
hitting double digits. The same holds true for the industry's
profitability. From today's viewpoint, an average EBIT
margin of around 1% seems realistic – with numerous
suppliers deeply in the red.
13

AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERS
Some 35% expect the crisis still to be affecting them in
five years' time. North America and Western Europe will
be most affected. Here, suppliers estimate a decline of
20-30% in 2009. In contrast, emerging markets are seen
more positively. Thus 48% of all respondents believed
that the crisis would have no significant negative impact
on India.
Navigating the crisis
In light of these challenges, cost reduction, efficiency
improvement and restructuring inevitably top the agendas
of supplier CEOs for 2009. Some 90% of the supplier
executives we surveyed listed plant restructuring and
reducing overheads as their top priorities for this year.
Almost all of them think that the overall conditions in
2009 will be more difficult than in the previous year.
14

AUTOMOTIVE SUPPLIERS
The effects of the current downturn are quite serious:
planned EBIT for a full year can be lost within a month
or two. Immediate action is needed by suppliers –
irrespective of whether their survival is in jeopardy
or not. Suppliers therefore need a short- and mid-term
action plan as a guideline for navigating the crisis
(see figure 6).
Marcus Berret
Partner at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Stuttgart
marcus_berret@de.rolandberger.com
Felix Mogge
Project Manager at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Munich
felix_mogge@de.rolandberger.com
15

BOOKS & STUDIES
Truck Industry 2020 – The future is global
Today’s commercial vehicle industry is facing major
challenges. The current financial crisis has hit the truck
industry particularly hard, affecting virtually all players.
The dramatic drop in order incomes raises severe
concerns about the short-term future of the industry.
However, it also provides opportunities for wellpositioned,
adaptable players. In terms of long-term
development, fundamental strategic pressures will
reshape the entire industry during the next decade.
The globalization of sales and operations is likely to be
the key factor in this development. In this study, we
provide a detailed assessment of current and future
trends in the global truck market. We define appropriate
strategies for OEMs to face the challenges ahead and
investigate the shape of the truck industry in 2020.
Powertrain 2020 – The future drives electric
Automotive OEMs and suppliers should prepare
themselves for a major shift in powertrain technology.
Stricter emission requirements and rising fuel prices
mean that new solutions are needed. Such solutions
are within reach – thanks to breakthroughs in Li-Ion
batteries and increasing efforts to build the
necessary charging infrastructure. When will cars
start running purely on electric power?
The exact point in time is hard to predict, but few
doubt that it will come. Our study presents an
overview of current developments in technology,
a scenario-based forecast for different types of EVs,
PHEVs and major subsystems, plus their potential
impact on OEMs and suppliers. The study also
provides an overview of new players, especially
those from China.
FAMOUS CARS
Jaguar XK 150 S Roadster
The Jaguar XK 150 was introduced in 1957 as the final model
of the famous XK series, which started with the XK 120 in 1948
and comprised over 30,000 vehicles sold worldwide. From a
technical perspective, it can be regarded as a prime example
of traditional British sports car manufacturing.
At the time, the XK 150 was the fastest Jaguar that had entered
series production, featuring a range of technical innovations
such as disc brakes.
16
In 1959, the XK 150 S was launched as a performance version
of the XK 150, generating 265 bhp from its 3.8 liter engine
and with a maximum speed of 215 km/h. The car has a
very dynamic appearance and boasts a powerful engine.

BOOKS & STUDIES
Global Automotive Supplier Study 2009 –
Historic profit washout
The current downturn in car markets around the globe
has already heavily affected the financial performance
of automotive suppliers. Revenues are stagnating and
profits eroding after years of profitable growth. The
outlook for 2009 is even more pessimistic, with market
and financing conditions remaining very difficult.
To master the crisis and put themselves in pole
position for the next upswing, suppliers now need to
take immediate action to adapt their costs and
restructure their businesses.
Interested in the studies?
Contact: dana_rehfuss@de.rolandberger.com
New book on leadership by Burkhard Schwenker –
"Strategisch denken, mutiger führen"
(Thinking strategically and managing boldly)
Leadership has become much more difficult of late. Globalization
has reduced confidence in trends and structures and the worldwide
economic crisis means that management is facing dramatic
challenges. As a result, people's confidence in managers has
reached a new low. This new book by Professor Burkhard Schwenker,
CEO of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, addresses urgent issues:
What characterizes good management? How can you win back lost
trust? Schwenker identifies three key dimensions that characterize
good management: hands-on skills, courage and character. He also
provides suggestions on how to best combine these three dimensions
to lead companies successfully through a crisis.
"Strategisch denken, mutiger führen"
launches a new series by the name of
"re: think CEO" produced by Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants in cooperation with
the publisher BrunoMedia Buchverlag
and the business magazine "Wirtschafts-
Woche". Based on the successful
"think:act" magazine concept developed
by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants,
the series provides leading managers
with compact information and provocative
perspectives – food for thought that can
be easily digested during the course of
one or two domestic flights.
Reflecting style and performance, it became the vehicle of
choice for young celebrities.
The model range included a roadster as well as a fixed-head and
a drop-head coupé. Until the XK 150 series was replaced by the
modern Jaguar XKE in 1961, approximately 1,200 units were
built – of which almost 900 were roadsters.
The model shown is a left-hand drive roadster built in 1959,
which was exported to the US. It has a 3.4 liter engine with
approximately 200 bhp. The current owner bought the car in
1988. Since then, it has been repainted and the engine
overhauled. The Jaguar still maintains its fascinating
appeal today.
17

POWERTRAIN 2020
The future drives electric
Automotive OEMs and suppliers should prepare
themselves for a major shift in powertrain technology.
New CO 2 emission regulations and rising fuel prices
mean that new solutions are needed. Such solutions
are within reach – thanks to breakthroughs in Li-Ion
batteries and increasing efforts to build the necessary
charging infrastructure. When will cars start running
purely on electric power? The exact point in time is
hard to predict, but few doubt that it will come. Our
study presents an overview of current developments
in technology, a scenario-based forecast for different
types of EVs, PHEVs and major subsystems, plus their
potential impact on OEMs and suppliers. The study
also provides an overview of new players, especially
those from China.
To gain a picture of potential market development, we
split electric vehicles into two groups: full hybrids with an
additional option for external charging (so-called "plug-in
hybrid electric vehicles" or PHEVs), including electric cars
with range extenders; and pure electric vehicles (EVs). We
then look at two possible scenarios (figure 1). The first
scenario is one of aggressive growth.
This scenario assumes a significant drop in production
costs for Li-Ion batteries, a continuing increase in fuel
costs, an ongoing build-up of the charging infrastructure
and continued strong support from government. The
second scenario assumes moderate growth, with battery
costs falling less sharply, a mild increase in energy
costs and much lower penalty taxes and duties.
18

Study
POWERTRAIN 2020
In both scenarios, Western Europe will lead the way
in terms of sales, mainly due to its strict emissions
requirements. Since Chinese government is promoting
new energy vehicles as a matter of policy (e.g. with
subsidies for public fleets as published prior Chinese
New Year), China's share of such vehicles will be much
higher than we predicted a few months ago – in fact,
China might lead in battery electric vehicles. The
long version of our study provides more detailed insights
into expected developments in different regions.
Future technology
Figure 2 shows the main powertrain configurations for
hybrid and electric vehicles currently under development.
For the foreseeable future, pure electric vehicles will
remain the preserve of city cars and second vehicles,
including small delivery trucks and "fun cars". The reason
for this is the limited range of pure electric powertrains,
due to the energy density and cost of batteries – an
important factor despite advances in technology.
Electric cars with range extenders – known as "serial
hybrids" – show greater potential for the coming years.
This type of configuration will appear in vehicles in the
compact segment and above, such as the soon-to-bereleased
GM Volt. Plug-in hybrids using parallel or powersplit
hybrid systems will appear mainly in the upper
medium and premium classes, and in large SUVs.
These vehicles will provide certification advantages
over conventional hybrids in EU27.
Where does that leave us? The vast majority of passenger
vehicles will still have combustion engines, albeit with
much lower displacement and fewer cylinders than today.
Simple, low-consumption, low-emission, low-cost engines
will play an even larger role in growth markets in
developing countries.
Opportunities for new players
Limited opportunities exist for smaller independent
newcomers to the market – Western niche players such as
Think! and Tesla, for example. Such companies are likely to
remain niche players in the long term, or fall victim to the
current financial crisis. By contrast, manufacturers from
emerging markets – China, in particular – will enjoy greater
business opportunities thanks to the shift toward electric.
A good example is BYD AUTO from Shenzhen, which is
pursuing a strategy of taking over the market via niche
segments. This strategy has been successfully employed
by other Chinese companies in the past.
19

POWERTRAIN 2020
BYD's core business is the manufacture of rechargeable
batteries. BYD AUTO, which has been successfully
producing passenger vehicles for the Chinese market for
the last two years or so, is now concentrating on producing
plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles. The vehicles
were initially planned for export to Israel and other core
markets such as the US.
In addition to a battery research group of several hundred
people, BYD claims to have around 1,000 employees
working on alternative powertrain technology, in line
with its aim of achieving long-term market leadership.
Challenges for European OEMs
Given the current credit crunch, for many players the most
attractive option may appear to be "wait and see". But this
means losing precious time. Now is the moment for OEMs
to critically examine what technology will make them stand
out from their competitors. They need to streamline their
development portfolios, focus their R&D team and have
the courage to drop developments that are going nowhere.
On top of this, they must build partnerships that will
generate economies of scale and so reduce their costs.
Besides BYD, Dongfeng, Wanxiang and other OEMs, a
number of Chinese suppliers are also active in the area of
electric motors and Li-Ion batteries for EVs. On the motor
side, we identified eleven promising ones, incl. Shanghai
Ananda Motor, Shanghai Kinway technology. There are
also 20 suppliers approximately active in Li-Ion batteries
for both passenger car and CV applications, some of them
already using LiFePO4-cells, like Lichen and Wangxiang.
Leveraging there low-cost base, they are already at
a cost-level not to be seen as reachable by Western
manufacturers.
20

Study
POWERTRAIN 2020
Implications for suppliers
For suppliers, the increasing electrification of the
powertrain brings both risks and opportunities. On the
one hand, simpler motors used as range extenders and
the growing number of pure battery-electric vehicles mean
substantially lower market volumes for specific mechanical
components. At the same time, however, new growth
opportunities are appearing, for example in components
for hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery-electric vehicles
(see figure 3).
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart
Partner at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Stuttgart
wolfgang_bernhart@de.rolandberger.com
Michael Valentine-Urbschat
Principal at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Munich
michael_valentine-urbschat@de.rolandberger.com
21

TRUCK INDUSTRY 2020
The future is global
After years of market growth, the global truck industry
is now not only experiencing a cyclical downturn but
also facing an unprecedented period of uncertainty.
Triad OEMs are confronting new challenges in their
home markets, with order reductions of over 40% not
unusual. Manufacturers from emerging markets are
also affected, with growth falling off precipitously.
Simply adjusting capacity will not provide a solution:
the entire value chain is affected. What is needed is
re-sizing, investment validation, sophisticated supply
chain management, cost control and strict liquidity
management.
Today, truck OEM executives are facing a number of
fundamental questions: "How long will the downturn
last?", "What will it take to survive?" and "What opportunities
are there to be realized?" OEMs that are properly
prepared may well emerge stronger from the crisis.
Financial crisis and the challenges of a changing
industry structure
Superficially, the changes occurring in the industry are a
reaction to the current economic climate. However, they
are also more fundamental in nature. In the near term,
the financial crisis creates a new reluctance in business
transactions that affects virtually all players, including
OEMs, suppliers and service companies. Many major
international OEMs have witnessed a dramatic drop in
orders, raising severe concerns about the short-term
future of the industry. European truck manufacturers
were particularly badly hit during Q4 of 2008. MAN's
full year order bookings, for instance, dropped by around
40% compared to 2007, while Volvo and Scania both
experienced reductions of over 40%.
22

Study
TRUCK INDUSTRY 2020
A further decline in sales seems inevitable (see figure 1).
Given the current economic and business situation,
it seems likely that the crisis in the truck industry will
continue until the end of 2010. In the long-term, fundamental
strategic pressures will lead to a reshaping of
the entire industry.
Three key factors drive structural change in the global
truck market:
1. Geographic market development: Differences in
sales development by region and their underlying drivers.
Despite the effects of the crisis, the shift in sales growth
from triad markets to emerging markets will continue
through 2020. In 2007, the markets for commercial
vehicles weighing over six tons in BRIC countries already
had a combined volume of approximately 1.2 million
vehicles. While sales in triad markets are declining,
emerging markets are expected to weather the storm
better and remain a source of growth potential. This
is something that truck OEMs cannot afford to ignore.
2. Competition: Types of players in the market, their
regional focus and expansion. Since the 1990s, there
has been a wave of consolidation in the market. The Volvo
Group, Daimler Trucks and MAN/Volkswagen/Scania are
prime examples. In China alone, the number of truck
production joint ventures increased from four to ten
between 2004 and 2008 – the planned Daimler Trucks
and Beiqi Foton joint venture being just one example.
These trends are expected to continue globally.
Competition between emerging and triad market OEMs
is also expected to increase. Declining sales in home
markets are pushing triad OEMs to step up their activities
in emerging markets.
At the same time, OEMs from emerging markets, bolstered
by the recent economic booms, are rapidly expanding not
only their domestic business but also their international
interests. In the long-run opportunities thus also exist
for emerging market OEMs to enter triad markets
(see figure 2).
23

TRUCK INDUSTRY 2020
3. Development of market segments: Shifts in product
segments resulting from changes in customer demand, in
particular the shift toward higher-end segments (e.g. due
to increased TCO-focus). Increasing competition will reinforce
the premium, budget and low-cost brand strategies
that cater to regional preferences. The convergence of
market trends, such as legislation (EURO emissions
standard, safety, etc.), will support the process of globalization.
Though differing between regions, a general trend
toward the budget and premium segments will appear in
emerging markets. Due in part to their proximity to Western
Europe, markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)
will relatively quickly develop a greater share of premium
vehicles in the truck fleet. Asia will also move upscale,
into the budget segment. The need to address the product
requirements of individual markets will continue to be a
critical consideration in OEMs' market entry and global
product strategies. The balance of global market trends
and change of local requirements will shape globalization
in the industry.
Opportunities for OEMs to reformulate strategy and
gain market share
OEMs must ensure that they adjust their operations in
different regions and countries correctly. The strategies
that can be pursued by triad OEMs here will differ from
those of emerging market OEMs:
Strategies for triad OEMs
> Enter the emerging market in the higher budget (or lower
premium) segment, adapting premium products to local
market requirements
> Enter the emerging market in the low-cost or lower
budget segment by means of local engineering,
sourcing, and production and/or sales
> Extension of the previous strategy: Enter the emerging
market in the low-cost or lower budget segment and
follow up by exporting the low-cost truck to other
emerging markets
24

Study
TRUCK INDUSTRY 2020
Strategies for emerging market OEMs
> Export a currently successful low-cost truck to other
emerging markets
> Grow with the domestic market as it develops in terms
of technology, gradually moving up into the budget
segment
> Grow with the domestic market as it develops in terms
of technology and enter developed markets
In a recent survey carried out by Roland Berger Strategy
Consultants, respondents indicated that their companies
would be utilizing a mix of these options, following
different strategies in different regions.
To successfully globalize their operations, OEMs need to
identify the relevant levers. Manufacturers can utilize a
set of elements here, ranging from platform architecture
(e.g. global powertrain platforms) to multi-branding
(strong global brands supported by regional brands)
and organization (alliances with other OEMs).
One respondent in our survey referred explicitly to
purchasing advantages, saying that there was an
opportunity to save more than 30% of material
costs by localizing procurement.
Globalization is the key factor shaping the development
of the truck industry. It is transforming the competitive
arena, refining global preferences and increasing global
scale effects. Globalization will thus drive future strategic
decisions by truck manufacturers – both in advanced
economies and emerging markets.
A detailed assessment of current and future trends in
the global truck market will be provided in our study
"Truck industry 2020: The future is global".
Norbert Dressler
Principal at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Stuttgart
norbert_dressler@de.rolandberger.com
Jochen Gleisberg
Partner at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Stuttgart
jochen_gleisberg@de.rolandberger.com
25

MATCH POINT MANAGEMENT
More revenues, more efficiency
The entire automotive industry finds itself in a vicious
circle triggered by the global economic downturn. It
is now more important than ever for managers to make
the best possible use of external market potential,
while simultaneously using the crisis to improve
internal efficiency. To help them in this task, we
have developed an analytical tool called "Match
Point Management". This tool accurately identifies
a company's market position and its cost performance
relative to the position and performance of its rivals.
"Match Point Management helps top managers keep
their companies growing healthily and profitably in the
long run", explains Bjoern Reineke, Partner at Roland
Berger's Marketing & Sales Competence Center.
"That's how companies build muscle, not fat".
Fine-tuning – A game of mixed doubles
Strategies that enable enterprises to grow profitably
optimize their use of key cost and market levers at the
same time. Systematic market and customer segmentation
helps them profile their target customers, identify those
customers' needs and align product marketing with them.
Managers with a keen market and customer orientation
use the information supplied by their customer service
operations methodically to generate extra sales revenues
through up-selling and cross-selling; they also regularly
measure the return on their marketing investment and
carry out internal benchmarking to compare the cost
efficiency of their sales units. By focusing on the potential
of sales resources, growth stimulus can be leveraged
without losing sight of efficiency goals. By contrast,
underperformers typically see optimizing their market
and cost positions as separate actions. It is therefore
no surprise that the two repeatedly come into conflict.
Well-managed companies don't wait for crisis like just
happened in nowadays to strike before they realign. BMW
is a fine example. In 2007 alone, the Bavarian carmaker
sold 6.7% more vehicles in the European Union than in
the previous year. Despite overtaking Daimler in the EU
in the process, BMW promptly launched a strict austerity
program in 2008.
By 2012, the company aims to save EUR 6 billion –
mostly in purchasing, but also by shedding some 8,000
jobs worldwide. "We must become profitable again. We
want to become profitable again. And we will become
profitable again", said BMW boss Norbert Reithofer at the
company's general meeting. His aim is to see the group's
operating return on sales (EBIT) rise as high as 8-10%.
Growth during times of downsizing
Optimizing market and efficiency potential at the same
time – like at BMW – demands exceptional leadership.
Yet motivating people to cut costs is not the only challenge
when pursuing an anticyclical growth strategy. All too
often, executives have to base their decisions on information
that is incomplete. This being the case, it can be
useful to visualize a company's market and cost performance
with the help of Match Point Management. Indeed,
Match Point Management injects clarity and rationality
into some of the most complex decisions at board level.
For instance, it makes it possible for top management
to see immediately whether the money spent on
strengthening the sales force has led to the desired
increase in market share.
26

Study
MATCH POINT MANAGEMENT
Exploiting potential and avoiding conflicts
Match Point Management takes on the threefold challenge
of aligning the key levers of the marketing and sales
organizations, exploiting their potential, and sidestepping
possible conflicts of interest. Ultimately, every company
wants to score by aligning itself more closely with the
needs of the market and the customers, thereby gaining
a larger market share. At the same time, companies need
to regularly optimize the internal efficiency of the sales
organization by keeping selling, general and administrative
(SG&A) expenses as a share of sales revenues as low
as possible.
This is the basic idea behind Match Point Management:
It sets the ratio of a company's SG&A costs to its sales
revenues in relation to the company's market share
(see figure 1). In so doing, it identifies the company's
performance in the marketplace, especially that of its
sales and marketing organization. "Market performance"
can only ever be a relative indicator, however: A company
is only "successful" (or not), relative to the performance
of its competitors. Accordingly, Match Point Management
calculates this indicator in relation to a theoretical
optimum computed from the performance of the top
players in the industry.
Match Point Management consists of three steps:
1) The CEO Report benchmarks a company's market
and cost performance against that of its rivals.
Market share and SG&A data in the public domain
are fed into this report
2) Using the same methodology, Match Point Analysis
draws on the company's internal data. For example,
it compares the market or cost performance of
different regional companies or divisions. Using a
specially designed questionnaire, a quick check is
then performed to nail down specific potential
for optimizing marketing and sales
3) To realize this potential, Match Point Management
features an extensive box of tools, each of which can
be prioritized based on the findings of the preceding
steps
27

MATCH POINT MANAGEMENT
Step 1: CEO Report
The CEO Report shows top management at a glance
where the company stands in the market, and how the
competition is doing by comparison. Along the cost and
market performance axes, the report shows the company's
position relative to that of its competitors on a scale from
0 to 100. The company that comes closest to a score of
100 on both axes (i.e. the company closest to the top
left-hand corner of the graph) "wins".
According to our Match Point Analysis and using an
example outside of the automotive industry, HP easily
represents the most successful enterprise in the computer
business (see figure 2).
A Match Point Index of 94 places the IT manufacturer and
service provider from Palo Alto, California, impressively
close to the perfect score of 100. Although its market
share is smaller, rival IBM has SG&A costs that, as a
share of sales revenues, are almost double HP's figure.
Step 2a: Match Point Analysis
The first part of Step 2 is a Match Point Analysis, which
focuses on the inner workings of the company. Following
the same methodology as in Step 1, it examines the
relative performance of a group's regional companies,
sales offices or divisions.
This internal benchmarking clearly shows how well each
part of the company is doing and reveals any gaps in
performance.
In figure 3, we present an example of a security system
vendor that was able to identify its British subsidiary as
problematic. Despite SG&A expenses of more than 30%
of sales revenues, the subsidiary had only a very small
share of the market.
However great the structural differences between the two
companies may be, vast untapped optimization potential
leaves IBM lagging far behind. The Match Point Index
reflects this finding with a score of just 30.
28

Study
MATCH POINT MANAGEMENT
Step 2b: Quick Check
Having looked outward at the industry context and inward
at the various units, companies and divisions, Step 2b
drills down into a company's performance on sales
revenues and cost. The Quick Check gets the job done
swiftly and efficiently. A specially designed and empirically
validated questionnaire is circulated at middle
management level.
Step 3: Match Point Management
To realize the potential for improvement identified by the
Quick Check, Match Point Management offers an extensive
and versatile array of optimization tools. They cover short-,
medium- and long-term aspects and include everything
from traditional up-selling to CRM projects and sales
benchmarking (see figure 5).
The aim is to obtain a self-assessment of group
performance that is as objective as possible. It reflects
the importance and individual performance of all relevant
SG&A functions in the light of specified best practices.
The outcome is a clear and detailed picture of the
strengths and weaknesses of each part of the group,
both in respect of other parts of the group and of the
external market.
Figure 4 gives an example of a Quick Check. A number of
findings stand out immediately. Internal managers believe
that the company's IT systems are very inefficient, but that
its field staff significantly outperforms other companies, at
least those in the same industry. The same managers see
trade marketing, product management and communication
as the company's key strengths.
29

MATCH POINT MANAGEMENT
Game, set and match
Match Point Management is a fast and pragmatic way
to see exactly where a company stands in relation to its
competitors. It is especially well suited to industries in
which products are largely interchangeable. In these
industries, market position is often determined primarily
by marketing and sales issues – such as a strong brand,
smart key account management and professional field
service.
Corporate groups with a traditional mindset initially invest
in order to grow. Economies of scale only come later, when
they launch projects to boost efficiency. Today, profitable
growth hinges on the ability to seize external market and
customer potential while at the same time fully optimizing
internal efficiency. Moreover, both aspects must dovetail
perfectly. Match Point Management can play a significant
and lasting part in enabling today's companies to master
this challenge.
Dr. Bjoern Reineke
Partner at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Munich
bjoern_reineke@de.rolandberger.com
The authors would like to thank Nicole Steffen
of the Automotive Competence Center for her
valuable contribution.
Lars Luck
Principal at Roland Berger
Strategy Consultants, Munich
lars_luck@de.rolandberger.com
30

Automotive Competence Center contacts worldwide
BENELUX/SCANDINAVIA
René Seyger
Phone +31 (20) 7960-620
rene_seyger@nl.rolandberger.com
Ralf Landmann
Phone +49 (69) 29924-6300
ralf_landmann@de.rolandberger.com
Central Eastern Europe (CEE)
Rupert Petry
Phone +43 (1) 53602-100
rupert_petry@at.rolandberger.com
CHINA
Jun Shen
Phone +86 (21) 52986677-874
jun_shen@cn.rolandberger.com
FRANCE
Max Blanchet
Phone +33 (1) 53670-907
max_blanchet@fr.rolandberger.com
Jacques Radé
Phone +33 (1) 53670-366
jacques_rade@fr.rolandberger.com
GERMANY
Ralf Kalmbach
Phone +49 (89) 9230-8669
ralf_kalmbach@de.rolandberger.com
Ralf Landmann
Phone +49 (69) 29924-6300
ralf_landmann@de.rolandberger.com
Marcus Berret
Phone +49 (711) 3275-7419
marcus_berret@de.rolandberger.com
Dr. Wolfgang Bernhart
Phone +49 (711) 3275-7421
wolfgang_bernhart@de.rolandberger.com
IBERIA
Justo Alcocer
Phone +34 (91) 5900250
justo_alcocer@es.rolandberger.com
INDIA
Ralf Kalmbach
Phone +49 (89) 9230-8669
ralf_kalmbach@de.rolandberger.com
ITALY
Marco Zurru
Phone +39 (02) 29501-209
marco_zurru@it.rolandberger.com
JAPAN
Ken Mori
Phone +81 (3) 35876-724
ken_mori@jp.rolandberger.com
Satoshi Nagashima
Phone +81 (3) 35876-683
satoshi_nagashima@jp.rolandberger.com
Kazuo Tanji
Phone +81 (3) 35876-678
kazuo_tanji@jp.rolandberger.com
KOREA
Koichi Mizutome
Phone +81 (3) 35876-679
koichi_mizutome@jp.rolandberger.com
NORTH AMERICA
Jürgen Reers
Phone +1 (248) 729-5111
juergen_reers@us.rolandberger.com
Antonio Benecchi
Phone +1 (248) 729-5125
antonio_benecchi@us.rolandberger.com
RUSSIA
Uwe Kumm
Phone +49 (30) 39927-3534
uwe_kumm@de.rolandberger.com
SOUTH AMERICA
Paul Gruppo
Phone +55 (11) 30467111
paul_gruppo@br.rolandberger.com
Thomas Kunze
Phone +55 (11) 30467111
thomas_kunze@br.rolandberger.com
TURKEY
Erkut Uludag
Phone +90 (212) 3700066-0
erkut_uludag@tr.rolandberger.com

Amsterdam
Bahrain
Barcelona
Beijing
Berlin
Brussels
Bucharest
Budapest
Casablanca
Chicago
Detroit
Düsseldorf
Frankfurt
Hamburg
Hong Kong
Istanbul
Kyiv
Lisbon
London
Madrid
Milan
Moscow
Munich
New York
Paris
Prague
Riga
Rome
São Paulo
Shanghai
Stuttgart
Tokyo
Vienna
Warsaw
Zagreb
Zurich
© 2009 Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
All rights reserved
www.rolandberger.com