Truck industry 2020: The future is global - Roland Berger

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Truck industry 2020: The future is global
The convergence of legal frameworks already entails a convergence of
relevant product technology. For example, the emergence of selective
catalytic reduction (SCR) technology and the success of aftertreatment
systems point to an increased focus by all OEMs on emissions legislation.
Even in individual countries, the introduction of a new emissions standard
can create fresh demand in the period prior to its enforcement. Such is the
case with the introduction of EPA10 in the US in 2010, for instance. This
change is expected to generate stronger demand for compliant vehicles in
2009 and 2010. Similar phenomena can be observed in many countries
around the world.
In the short term, however, emissions improvement will remain a
tricky sell in all emerging markets. As one manufacturer says, "Clients
are interested in, but not willing to pay extra for 'clean' technology."
The expectation is that this attitude will change over time.
The trend toward convergence is apparent in many other areas too:
> TCO: Attitudes toward the total cost of ownership are changing. TCO
is already of crucial importance to buyers in triad markets. All our interviewees
– without exception – thought that it would gain in importance
in emerging markets too in the period to 2020
> Emission regulation: Views differ on the relative importance of emission
regulation. In the triad markets, however, this issue is clearly gaining in
importance. In future, the regulation of emissions is expected to give
a powerful boost to globalization
> Safety regulation: Stricter safety regulations are expected in both
markets, although the changes are likely to be more pronounced in
emerging markets. This development too will definitely have some
influence on globalization in the truck industry
> Driver comfort: Long established as a prerequisite in triad markets, driver
comfort is considered one of the least important qualifications for truck
purchase today in emerging markets. Our interviewees agreed that driver
comfort is currently a nice-to-have feature, as long as it doesn't compromise
the cost of the vehicle. The survey nevertheless showed a major
leap in this category between now and 2020, indicating a gradual shift
toward a global expectation for comfort (see Figure 11).