Airport Master Plan - City of Riverside

national general aviation itinerant operations
were on the decline, Riverside
Airport was able to not only maintain
its itinerant operational count but
showed an increase from approximately
40,000 annual itinerant operations
in 1998 to 47,000 in 2005.
TABLE 2R
General Aviation Itinerant Operations Forecast
Riverside Airport
Riverside
Year
GA Itinerant
Ops
U.S. GA
Itinerant Ops
Market Share
Itinerant Ops
Riverside
Based
Aircraft
Itinerant Ops
Per Based
Aircraft
1998 39,581 22,086,500 0.1792% 186 213
1999 39,602 23,019,400 0.1720% 186 213
2000 39,405 22,844,100 0.1725% 186 212
2001 43,464 21,433,300 0.2028% 186 234
2002 43,321 21,450,500 0.2020% 189 229
2003 44,296 20,231,300 0.2189% 193 230
2004 44,090 20,007,200 0.2204% 196 225
2005 46,466 19,315,100 0.2406% 200 232
2006 41,947 18,751,900 0.2237% 202 208
Constant Market Share of U.S. General Aviation Itinerant Operations
2012 48,856 21,840,300 0.2237% 300 163
2017 54,030 24,153,600 0.2237% 370 146
2027 66,125 29,560,461 0.2237% 480 138
Increasing Market Share of U.S. General Aviation Itinerant Operations
2012 50,233 21,840,300 0.2300% 300 167
2017 57,969 24,153,600 0.2400% 370 157
2027 76,857 29,560,461 0.2600% 480 160
Selected Forecast
2012 50,000 21,840,300 0.2289% 300 167
2017 56,000 24,153,600 0.2318% 370 151
2027 72,000 29,560,461 0.2436% 480 150
Source: FAA Aerospace Forecasts 2007-2020; Operations from tower count.
Several methods for forecasting itinerant
operations at Riverside Airport
were considered. A trend line developed
considering the historic itinerant
operations at the airport from 1998 to
2006. This resulted in an “r²” value of
0.54 and forecasts of 49,717 itinerant
operations in 2012; 53,024 in 2017;
and 59,637 in 2027. Because the “r²”
value is too low to consider the forecast
statistically reliable, this forecast
is not considered further. A regression
analysis was developed comparing Riverside
Airport itinerant operations
2-23
with forecasts of national itinerant operations.
This, too, resulted in a poor
“r²” value of 0.50 and, thus, this forecast
was not considered either.
Two market share forecasts were developed
for itinerant operations at Riverside
Airport. The first considered
the airport maintaining a constant
share of national itinerant operations.
This forecast results in a 2027 forecast
of slightly more than 67,000 annual
itinerant operations. This forecast
likely represents a low range as the