The Past and the Future of Flood Management in the Eastern ... - INBO
The Past and the Future of Flood Management in the Eastern ... - INBO
The Past and the Future of Flood Management in the Eastern ... - INBO
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In Egypt, recent digital topographic data has been obta<strong>in</strong>ed, <strong>and</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> 2001<br />
flood<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>the</strong> Nile Research Institute has embarked upon a revision <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> del<strong>in</strong>eation <strong>of</strong><br />
‘management l<strong>in</strong>es’, a rudimentary form <strong>of</strong> flood risk mapp<strong>in</strong>g. NRI are <strong>in</strong>terested <strong>in</strong><br />
benchmark<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>ir mapp<strong>in</strong>g activity aga<strong>in</strong>st <strong>in</strong>ternational practice, <strong>and</strong> it is proposed that<br />
technical assistance be provided to undertake flood risk mapp<strong>in</strong>g similar to that proposed<br />
<strong>in</strong> Sudan. In Egypt, <strong>the</strong> current mapp<strong>in</strong>g program has <strong>in</strong>cluded <strong>the</strong> acquisition <strong>of</strong> all<br />
digital topographic data <strong>and</strong> river cross-sections that are necessary.<br />
<strong>The</strong> s<strong>in</strong>gle greatest deficiency that can be rectified for future assessments <strong>of</strong> flood<br />
damage <strong>in</strong> all EN countries would be <strong>the</strong> preparation <strong>of</strong> flood risk mapp<strong>in</strong>g that would<br />
identify <strong>the</strong> exposure <strong>of</strong> people <strong>and</strong> property to flood hazard.Also <strong>the</strong> compilation <strong>of</strong><br />
more accurate <strong>and</strong> detailed flood <strong>in</strong>telligence which can greatly facilitate estimation <strong>of</strong><br />
damages <strong>in</strong> past (or future) floods is <strong>of</strong> great importance.<br />
<strong>Flood</strong> Forecast<strong>in</strong>g needs<br />
In Egypt, <strong>the</strong> need for effective flood forecast<strong>in</strong>g is fur<strong>the</strong>r justified by <strong>the</strong> need to<br />
operate HAD to maximum efficiency <strong>and</strong> maximum benefit, as <strong>the</strong> regulation <strong>of</strong> Nile<br />
waters by <strong>the</strong> HAD has become a crucial aspect <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> national economy. <strong>The</strong> Nile<br />
Forecast Center (NFC), situated with<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Plann<strong>in</strong>g Sector <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> M<strong>in</strong>istry <strong>of</strong> Water<br />
Resources & Irrigation (MWRI), has primary responsibility for flood forecast<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
Egypt. It has developed models for short <strong>and</strong> medium term forecast<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>flows to<br />
HAD, <strong>and</strong> long-term simulation models for <strong>in</strong>vestigations <strong>of</strong> reservoir operations. <strong>The</strong><br />
NFC is able to make near real-time estimates <strong>of</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> upper Blue Nile bas<strong>in</strong>.<br />
In Sudan, <strong>the</strong> Nile Forecast<strong>in</strong>g Center is a unit with<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Nile Waters Directorate <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong><br />
MIWR, <strong>and</strong> has several years’ experience <strong>in</strong> use <strong>of</strong> flood forecast<strong>in</strong>g models coupled<br />
with river gaug<strong>in</strong>g data reported from MIWR stations on <strong>the</strong> Blue Nile, Atbara <strong>and</strong> Ma<strong>in</strong><br />
Nile. Components <strong>of</strong> <strong>the</strong> system became non-functional after several years <strong>of</strong> operation,<br />
<strong>and</strong> apart from an expert review <strong>in</strong> 2000; no serious efforts have been made to restore<br />
<strong>the</strong>m s<strong>in</strong>ce. Access to real-time data from Ethiopia would substantially <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>the</strong> flood<br />
warn<strong>in</strong>g lead times available <strong>in</strong> Sudan. Forecast river levels should be dissem<strong>in</strong>ated to<br />
communities at risk <strong>in</strong> all circumstances when rivers are forecast to rise above ‘alert’<br />
levels. <strong>Flood</strong> warn<strong>in</strong>gs should give equal weight to <strong>in</strong>formal community preparedness<br />
<strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> preparations made by government agencies.<br />
In Ethiopia, forecast<strong>in</strong>g is more difficult than <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>Eastern</strong> Nile countries because<br />
shorter lead times are available, particularly for <strong>the</strong> flood risk areas around Lake Tana.<br />
Longer lead times for flood warn<strong>in</strong>g are feasible <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Gambella pla<strong>in</strong>s. No practical<br />
flood forecast<strong>in</strong>g capability currently exists <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, although <strong>the</strong>re are a<br />
few wea<strong>the</strong>r stations that can report <strong>in</strong> real time to NMA <strong>in</strong> Addis Ababa, <strong>the</strong>re are no<br />
river gaug<strong>in</strong>g stations equipped to report <strong>in</strong> real or near real time to MWR. That means<br />
that effective flood forecast<strong>in</strong>g is impossible with <strong>the</strong> current network. In addition to<br />
flood forecast<strong>in</strong>g, ano<strong>the</strong>r challenge will be to develop a flood emergency response<br />
system capable <strong>of</strong> rapid response <strong>in</strong> locations remote from Addis Ababa. <strong>The</strong>refore, <strong>the</strong><br />
establishment <strong>of</strong> a <strong>Flood</strong> Forecast<strong>in</strong>g Center <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>stallation <strong>of</strong> a real-time report<strong>in</strong>g<br />
network <strong>of</strong> ra<strong>in</strong>fall <strong>and</strong> river gauges <strong>in</strong> Ethiopia is recommended <strong>in</strong> order to improve <strong>the</strong><br />
capacity <strong>of</strong> Ethiopia to plan for <strong>and</strong> manage floods.<br />
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