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The full programme book (PDF) - Royal Geographical Society

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T3<br />

Unforced variability in summer storm track position over the past millennium<br />

Mary Gagen 1 *, Eduardo Zorita 2 , Danny McCarroll 1 , Neil Loader 1 , Iain Robertson 1 , Giles<br />

Young 1 and the Millennium team 3 .<br />

1 Swansea University, Swansea<br />

2 HZG, Geesthacht, Germany<br />

3 EU 6th Framework Project Millennium 017008<br />

Disentangling the regional climate changes which are attributable to external forcings from<br />

the multidecadal internal variability is essential to estimate the range of regional future<br />

climate change. <strong>The</strong>re are indications, in the recent past, of large multi-decadal excursions<br />

in European temperatures that do not match estimated external forcing. Here we analyse<br />

the simulated and reconstructed evolution of European summer temperatures over the last<br />

millennium in an attempt to identify where specific deviations are distinctly caused by<br />

internal processes. In addition to a forced, spatially homogeneous, temperature response<br />

to external forcing, we identify a pattern of unforced multidecadal variability that is best<br />

described by a north-south temperature dipole over Europe. In observations and climate<br />

simulations, this mode is linked to precipitation and cloud cover variability and represents<br />

a meridional variations of the summer storm tracks in the European-North Atlantic region.<br />

It expresses strongly in multi decadal phases centred on AD 1620 and 1900 and explains<br />

the recent period of cool, damp summers experienced by northern Europe. Our results<br />

indicate that storm tracks meridional vacillations may display wide, unforced, multidecadal<br />

variability.<br />

Keywords: Climate change; palaeoclimate; storm track; climate reconstruction; last<br />

millennium

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