The full programme book (PDF) - Royal Geographical Society
The full programme book (PDF) - Royal Geographical Society
The full programme book (PDF) - Royal Geographical Society
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T3<br />
Unforced variability in summer storm track position over the past millennium<br />
Mary Gagen 1 *, Eduardo Zorita 2 , Danny McCarroll 1 , Neil Loader 1 , Iain Robertson 1 , Giles<br />
Young 1 and the Millennium team 3 .<br />
1 Swansea University, Swansea<br />
2 HZG, Geesthacht, Germany<br />
3 EU 6th Framework Project Millennium 017008<br />
Disentangling the regional climate changes which are attributable to external forcings from<br />
the multidecadal internal variability is essential to estimate the range of regional future<br />
climate change. <strong>The</strong>re are indications, in the recent past, of large multi-decadal excursions<br />
in European temperatures that do not match estimated external forcing. Here we analyse<br />
the simulated and reconstructed evolution of European summer temperatures over the last<br />
millennium in an attempt to identify where specific deviations are distinctly caused by<br />
internal processes. In addition to a forced, spatially homogeneous, temperature response<br />
to external forcing, we identify a pattern of unforced multidecadal variability that is best<br />
described by a north-south temperature dipole over Europe. In observations and climate<br />
simulations, this mode is linked to precipitation and cloud cover variability and represents<br />
a meridional variations of the summer storm tracks in the European-North Atlantic region.<br />
It expresses strongly in multi decadal phases centred on AD 1620 and 1900 and explains<br />
the recent period of cool, damp summers experienced by northern Europe. Our results<br />
indicate that storm tracks meridional vacillations may display wide, unforced, multidecadal<br />
variability.<br />
Keywords: Climate change; palaeoclimate; storm track; climate reconstruction; last<br />
millennium