the RUSSIA oil & gas competitive intelligence report - Report Buyer

the RUSSIA oil & gas competitive intelligence report - Report Buyer the RUSSIA oil & gas competitive intelligence report - Report Buyer

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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence Report 2010 new blocks stood at 462.6bcm of gas (based on Russia’s A, B and C1 classification). Although Gazprom did not disclose its output projections for Chayandinskoe, CEO Miller stated that the high helium content of the block's gas would require the construction of an expensive processing plant. Gazprom planned to bring the block onstream in 2016, the same year it plans to finish the construction of the Yakutia- Khabarovsk interconnector. The 6,000km pipeline has a design capacity of 32-35bcm per annum and aimed at eventually enabling exports of Yakutia’s gas from coastal LNG terminals. By mid-2009 Gazprom had already been awarded 14 blocks in eastern Russia without a competitive tender. According to Vedomosti, Gazprom paid around RUB11bn for the blocks, which have combined reserves of 6.29trn of gas and 8bn bbl of condensate. Apart from its petition for four new Yakutia blocks, Gazprom asked the government for tax holidays and/or export duty exemptions for its eastern projects. The newspaper’s government sources claim Putin overall supported Gazprom's suggestions. Whether Gazprom has the need or the capacity to develop the new Yakutia permits is in question. In 2004 Gazprom estimated Chayandinskoe’s reserves at 1.24tcm, over half of Yakutia’s total, and more than sufficient for the planned pipeline to the Pacific. Moreover, the impact of the recession on Gazprom's finances has already forced the company to freeze several high-profile projects in the east and north of the country. In the current circumstances, Gazprom would find it difficult to fund the development of Chayandinskoe, let alone the four new Yakutia blocks it has asked for. The concessions are therefore likely to be idled for years to come. According to Vedomosti’s report in July 2009, wholly state-owned Rosneftegaz may replace Gazprom in the ownership talks for the giant Kovykta field in the eastern Irkutsk region. Nominally, the majority stakeholder in the project remains TNK-BP, but as a result of pressure from the energy ministry, for the past two years the Anglo-Russian company has been negotiating the sale of its stake to Gazprom. The MoU on TNK-BP’s sale of its interest in the Kovykta operating vehicle, Rusia Petroleum, to Gazprom was signed in June 2007. In pushing for the sale, the Kremlin focused on TNK-BP's failure to raise gas output at the project to the 9bcm required by the terms of the contract. This was based on the assumption that the Irkutsk authorities would comply with their part of the contract, building the required downstream infrastructure to channel Kovykta’s gas to local end-users. Irkutsk has failed to do this: the utilised gas output at the field is by early 2009 was an annualised 30Mcm. TNK-BP's inability to raise production led the Russian subsoil agency, using somewhat perverse logic, to threaten to withdraw the Kovykta licence. It was thought that once Gazprom took the reins, the company would be likely to alter contract terms to allow exports outside Irkutsk, with the eventual aim of constructing a gas pipeline to China. It now appears, however, that Kovykta has become the latest major gas development to be shelved by Gazprom as a result of the recession. Officials at the company told Kommersant that given the current demand conditions, Gazprom would prefer to concentrate on cheaper and lower-risk projects, adding that they were 'indifferent' towards Kovykta. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 27

Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence Report 2010 Previously, Gazprom intended to begin large-scale development at Kovykta by 2017. The planned transfer of its interests to a holding company implies that even this date could be optimistic. Rosneftegaz, chaired by the Vice-Prime Minister Igor Sechin, has never participated in any active operations, suggesting the project will remain frozen for years to come. Although Gazprom confirmed talks with Rosneftegaz on the Kovykta transfer, Kommersant's sources stated that no final decision had been made. In BMI's view, even if Gazprom divests Kovykta at this stage, its monopoly on Russia's gas export means it will re-enter the project when the economics of the projects are deemed to be sufficiently favourable. Gazprom announced in June 2009 that it was indefinitely delaying the construction of a gas pipeline to China after the two countries failed to come to a gas price agreement. Russia and China have been in negotiations over gas exports since 2006, but their inability to resolve the differences resulted in the ambitious pipeline project, which was to transport some 30bcm of gas from 2011 and up to 85bcm at a later stage, being frozen. While Russia may previously have held the upper hand in negotiations, thanks to its vast gas reserves and China's rapidly rising demand, Beijing is now benefiting from major new gas import deals with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Myanmar. In May 2009, Gazprom boosted the annual budget for the Sakhalin-Vladivostok pipeline to RUB50bn (US$1.6bn). The 1,830km pipeline is due onstream in Q311. Gazprom is also considering building an LNG export terminal and a petrochemical facility near Vladivostok. The pipeline will link two major projects offshore Sakhalin Island that are currently onstream, Sakhalin-I and -II, to the mainland. The section to Khabarovsk is already operational. Initially, Sakhalin-I's gas supplies will be used to feed local demand. In the same month Gazprom announced that it was set to buy 20% of gas produced from the Exxon-operated Sakhalin-I, according to media reports. Tensions between Exxon and the Kremlin have been high owing to a disagreement over marketing rights for gas from the project, with Exxon wanting to export the gas directly at (higher) international prices and the Kremlin wanting Gazprom to buy all of Sakhalin's I gas at (lower) domestic prices. Gazprom and its German partner Wintershall have brought onstream the Achimgaz project in July 2008. The US$1bn, 50:50 Achimgaz JV in Yamal is to produce nearly 1bcm of gas per annum and 6,000b/d of condensate. The project’s lifespan is 40 years. Gazprom announced in September 2008 plans to invest RUB23.5bn in constructing a new gas pipeline in the Far East. The pipeline will connect the Sobolevskoe deposit with the capital of the Kamchatka region, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, and is due onstream in 2010. While it will be designed to supply the domestic market, in the longer term it may also be used to connect remote gas reserves to the country’s export infrastructure. © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 28

Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />

Previously, Gazprom intended to begin large-scale development at Kovykta by 2017. The planned<br />

transfer of its interests to a holding company implies that even this date could be optimistic. Rosneftegaz,<br />

chaired by <strong>the</strong> Vice-Prime Minister Igor Sechin, has never participated in any active operations,<br />

suggesting <strong>the</strong> project will remain frozen for years to come. Although Gazprom confirmed talks with<br />

Rosneftegaz on <strong>the</strong> Kovykta transfer, Kommersant's sources stated that no final decision had been made.<br />

In BMI's view, even if Gazprom divests Kovykta at this stage, its monopoly on Russia's <strong>gas</strong> export means<br />

it will re-enter <strong>the</strong> project when <strong>the</strong> economics of <strong>the</strong> projects are deemed to be sufficiently favourable.<br />

Gazprom announced in June 2009 that it was indefinitely delaying <strong>the</strong> construction of a <strong>gas</strong> pipeline to<br />

China after <strong>the</strong> two countries failed to come to a <strong>gas</strong> price agreement. Russia and China have been in<br />

negotiations over <strong>gas</strong> exports since 2006, but <strong>the</strong>ir inability to resolve <strong>the</strong> differences resulted in <strong>the</strong><br />

ambitious pipeline project, which was to transport some 30bcm of <strong>gas</strong> from 2011 and up to 85bcm at a<br />

later stage, being frozen. While Russia may previously have held <strong>the</strong> upper hand in negotiations, thanks to<br />

its vast <strong>gas</strong> reserves and China's rapidly rising demand, Beijing is now benefiting from major new <strong>gas</strong><br />

import deals with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Myanmar.<br />

In May 2009, Gazprom boosted <strong>the</strong> annual budget for <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin-Vladivostok pipeline to RUB50bn<br />

(US$1.6bn). The 1,830km pipeline is due onstream in Q311. Gazprom is also considering building an<br />

LNG export terminal and a petrochemical facility near Vladivostok. The pipeline will link two major<br />

projects offshore Sakhalin Island that are currently onstream, Sakhalin-I and -II, to <strong>the</strong> mainland. The<br />

section to Khabarovsk is already operational. Initially, Sakhalin-I's <strong>gas</strong> supplies will be used to feed local<br />

demand. In <strong>the</strong> same month Gazprom announced that it was set to buy 20% of <strong>gas</strong> produced from <strong>the</strong><br />

Exxon-operated Sakhalin-I, according to media <strong>report</strong>s. Tensions between Exxon and <strong>the</strong> Kremlin have<br />

been high owing to a disagreement over marketing rights for <strong>gas</strong> from <strong>the</strong> project, with Exxon wanting to<br />

export <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> directly at (higher) international prices and <strong>the</strong> Kremlin wanting Gazprom to buy all of<br />

Sakhalin's I <strong>gas</strong> at (lower) domestic prices.<br />

Gazprom and its German partner Wintershall have brought onstream <strong>the</strong> Achimgaz project in July 2008.<br />

The US$1bn, 50:50 Achimgaz JV in Yamal is to produce nearly 1bcm of <strong>gas</strong> per annum and 6,000b/d of<br />

condensate. The project’s lifespan is 40 years.<br />

Gazprom announced in September 2008 plans to invest RUB23.5bn in constructing a new <strong>gas</strong> pipeline in<br />

<strong>the</strong> Far East. The pipeline will connect <strong>the</strong> Sobolevskoe deposit with <strong>the</strong> capital of <strong>the</strong> Kamchatka region,<br />

Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, and is due onstream in 2010. While it will be designed to supply <strong>the</strong><br />

domestic market, in <strong>the</strong> longer term it may also be used to connect remote <strong>gas</strong> reserves to <strong>the</strong> country’s<br />

export infrastructure.<br />

© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 28

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