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2010<br />
www.businessmonitor.com<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>RUSSIA</strong> <strong>oil</strong> & <strong>gas</strong><br />
<strong>competitive</strong> <strong>intelligence</strong> <strong>report</strong><br />
“Well Positioned for Global Recovery”<br />
Published by Business Monitor International Ltd.
<strong>RUSSIA</strong> OIL AND GAS<br />
COMPETITIVE<br />
INTELLIGENCE<br />
REPORT 2010<br />
Part of BMI's Industry <strong>Report</strong> & Forecasts Series<br />
Published by: Business Monitor International<br />
Publication Date: October 2010<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 2
Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
CONTENTS<br />
Competitive Landscape Analysis ................................................................................................................... 5<br />
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Russian Oil And Gas Sector .............................................................................................. 6<br />
Overview/State Role ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 7<br />
Licensing And Regulation ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 7<br />
Government Policy ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 9<br />
International Energy Relations ............................................................................................................................................................................ 10<br />
Gas Transit .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14<br />
Oil Transit ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18<br />
Table: Key Upstream Players .............................................................................................................................................................................. 19<br />
Key Downstream Players ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 20<br />
Company Profiles ........................................................................................................................................... 21<br />
Gazprom ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21<br />
Market Position ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22<br />
Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 22<br />
Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 24<br />
Gazprom Neft (formerly Sibneft) ............................................................................................................................................................................... 29<br />
Market Position ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 30<br />
Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30<br />
Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 31<br />
Rosneft ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32<br />
Market Position ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 32<br />
Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 33<br />
Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 33<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong> ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 36<br />
Market Position ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37<br />
Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 37<br />
Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 38<br />
TNK-BP .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40<br />
Market Position ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 41<br />
Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 41<br />
Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 42<br />
Tatneft ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45<br />
Market Position ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 46<br />
Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 46<br />
Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 46<br />
Total.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47<br />
Market Position ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47<br />
Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 48<br />
Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 48<br />
Novatek ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50<br />
Market Position ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 50<br />
Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 51<br />
Latest Developments ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 51<br />
Russneft..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53<br />
Market Position ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 53<br />
Strategy ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 54<br />
Recent Developments ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 54<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Surgutneftegaz – Summary........................................................................................................................................................................................ 56<br />
Sistema – Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 56<br />
Itera – Summary ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 57<br />
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary................................................................................................................................................................................... 57<br />
ExxonMobil – Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 57<br />
Transneft – Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 58<br />
Sakhalin Energy – Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 58<br />
Wintershall – Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 59<br />
BP – Summary .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 59<br />
Lundin Petroleum – Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................... 60<br />
OMV – Summary ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 60<br />
Irkutsk Oil Company – Summary .............................................................................................................................................................................. 60<br />
Aladdin Oil & Gas – Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................. 61<br />
PetroNeft – Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 61<br />
Alliance Oil – Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 62<br />
O<strong>the</strong>rs – Summary .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 62<br />
Market Attractiveness Analysis .................................................................................................................... 64<br />
Russia Energy Market Overview ............................................................................................................................................................................... 64<br />
Oil & Gas Infrastructure .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 67<br />
Oil Refineries ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67<br />
Table: Refineries Of 50,000b/d Capacity Or Greater In Russia .......................................................................................................................... 69<br />
Oil Terminals/Ports ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 70<br />
Oil Pipelines ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 70<br />
LNG Terminals .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 72<br />
Gas Pipelines ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 74<br />
SWOT Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 77<br />
Russia Business Environment SWOT ................................................................................................................................................................... 77<br />
Risk-Reward Ratings ..................................................................................................................................... 78<br />
Business Environment Ratings .................................................................................................................................................................................. 78<br />
Central/Eastern Europe Region ........................................................................................................................................................................... 78<br />
Composite Scores................................................................................................................................................................................................. 78<br />
Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating .................................................................................................................................. 79<br />
Upstream Scores .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 80<br />
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.................................................................................................................................... 80<br />
Russia Upstream Rating -- Overview ................................................................................................................................................................... 81<br />
Russia Upstream Rating -- Potential Returns ...................................................................................................................................................... 81<br />
Russia Upstream Rating -- Risks To Potential Returns ........................................................................................................................................ 81<br />
Downstream Scores ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 82<br />
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating ............................................................................................................................... 82<br />
Russia Downstream Rating -- Overview .............................................................................................................................................................. 83<br />
Russia Downstream Rating -- Potential Returns .................................................................................................................................................. 83<br />
Russia Downstream Rating -- Risks To Potential Returns ................................................................................................................................... 83<br />
Business Development Directory ................................................................................................................. 84<br />
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Competitive Landscape Analysis<br />
• The Russian <strong>gas</strong> industry is dominated by Gazprom, which is effectively a downstream <strong>gas</strong><br />
monopoly that also accounts for around 84% of upstream production. In 2009, Gazprom<br />
produced 462bcm, <strong>the</strong> lowest level in history. Gazprom’s <strong>oil</strong> arm Gazprom Neft is now a major<br />
producer, following <strong>the</strong> acquisition of Yukos’ assets in 2007-2009.<br />
• The <strong>oil</strong> sector is more diversified. State-run Rosneft is <strong>the</strong> main producer, but privately owned<br />
Surgutneftegaz, Luk<strong>oil</strong>, TNK-BP and large regional producers such as Tatneft and Bashneft, are<br />
not too far behind. The degree of private companies’ connections with <strong>the</strong> Kremlin varies, but<br />
overall inter-company competition is more limited than it would initially appear.<br />
• The Russian government has moved forward its plans to privatise a larger share of Rosneft. On<br />
July 26, <strong>the</strong> Finance Ministry included <strong>the</strong> country's largest <strong>oil</strong> producer in <strong>the</strong> list of nine<br />
companies earmarked for partial privatisation in 2011-2013. Up to 24.16% of Rosneft could be<br />
sold, leaving <strong>the</strong> state with <strong>the</strong> 51% controlling stake.<br />
• Many leading domestic independents, such as Russneft and Urals Energy, have been fashioned<br />
by high-profile businessmen in <strong>the</strong> wake of <strong>the</strong> state asset sell-off in <strong>the</strong> 1990s. They are now,<br />
however, threatened by takeovers from <strong>the</strong> state-run majors owing to debt over-exposure, often<br />
in non-<strong>oil</strong>-related activities. Sibir Energy, one of <strong>the</strong> largest independent producers, was taken<br />
over by Gazprom Neft in mid-2009.<br />
• BP has shares in <strong>the</strong> TNK-BP venture, which is <strong>the</strong> main IOC interest. BP is boosting its Russian<br />
focus following <strong>the</strong> Macondo spill. ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell and BP are members of<br />
consortia developing <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin fields.<br />
• Luk<strong>oil</strong>’s <strong>oil</strong> output in January-September 20009 totalled around 1.83mn b/d. The group has an<br />
estimated 18% share of refining capacity and 1,815 service stations in Russia.<br />
• US major ConocoPhillips is selling its entire 20%Luk<strong>oil</strong> stake. The decision fits ConocoPhillips'<br />
stated asset divestment plan, first announced in October 2009, after <strong>the</strong> company's investment in<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong> failed to meet expectations. The company first denied any Luk<strong>oil</strong> divestment and <strong>the</strong>n<br />
said only 10% will be sold.<br />
• Surgutneftegaz’s 2008 crude production was 1.24mn b/d, while <strong>gas</strong> output totalled 14.1bcm.<br />
Downstream assets include <strong>the</strong> 400,000b/d Kirishi <strong>oil</strong> refinery and around 300 service stations in<br />
north-western Russia.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The Russian Oil And Gas Sector<br />
Company<br />
2009 Sales<br />
(US$bn)<br />
% share<br />
of total<br />
sales<br />
No. of<br />
employees<br />
Year<br />
established<br />
Total<br />
Assets<br />
(US$mn) Ownership (%)<br />
Gazprom 116.1* na 445,000 1992 na<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong> 107.7* na 150,000 1991 59,632<br />
91.1% state; 2.5%<br />
E.ON Ruhr<strong>gas</strong><br />
20.6% V. Alekperov;<br />
12.06% O<strong>the</strong>r mngt;<br />
TNK-BP 34.7 na 90,300 2003 11,093 50:50 BP, ARR<br />
Surgutneftegaz 18.0* na 86,108 1993 na Employee-owned<br />
Gazprom Neft 24.2 na 55,000 1995 8,342 100% Gazprom<br />
Rosneft 46.8 na 74,000 1993 59,837 75.2% state<br />
Tatneft 7.5 na 104,000 1955 na 36% Tatarstan govt<br />
Russneft 4.5* 30e na na na 75% Basel<br />
e = estimate, na = not available/applicable. Source: Company data 2009, BMI; *2008 figures<br />
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Overview/State Role<br />
The <strong>oil</strong> sector is concentrated in <strong>the</strong> hands of several domestic companies, with limited direct IOC<br />
involvement. The biggest crude producers, exporters and refiners are state-run Rosneft and Gazprom<br />
Neft, plus privately owned Luk<strong>oil</strong>, Surgutneftegaz, TNK-BP and Tatneft. Following US major<br />
ConocoPhillips’ divestment of its 20% stake in Luk<strong>oil</strong> in 2010, BP is <strong>the</strong> only foreign palyer with a large<br />
interest in Russian <strong>oil</strong> producers through <strong>the</strong> TNK-BP JV. The <strong>oil</strong> pipeline system is managed by staterun<br />
Transneft, <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> trunklines by Gazprom. Foreign upstream <strong>oil</strong> ventures traditionally have been<br />
carried out through <strong>the</strong> Zarubezhneft state vehicle, although <strong>the</strong> main Russian producers are increasingly<br />
venturing abroad directly.<br />
Gas activities are controlled by national giant Gazprom, which dominates production and holds a<br />
monopoly on exports and, in practice, distribution. Restructuring has been discussed for years with little<br />
progress, although domestic <strong>gas</strong> prices are being very gradually adjusted to international levels, a process<br />
that started in <strong>the</strong> mid 2000s. There were plans to merge Gazprom with Rosneft, but <strong>the</strong> deal was<br />
abandoned.<br />
Licensing And Regulation<br />
There are three proposed changes to Russia's tax structure. First, from <strong>the</strong> beginning of 2011, Russia<br />
intends to increase <strong>the</strong> mineral extraction tax (MET) for both <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> production, with <strong>the</strong> increase in<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> MET having been set at 61%. The MET rate is currently RUB419/tonne, adjusted according to <strong>the</strong><br />
price of Urals crude, <strong>the</strong> field depletion rate, and <strong>the</strong> US$/RUB exchange rate. The proposed MET<br />
increases will be inflation-adjusted. Second, Russia has proposed increasing <strong>the</strong> tax on refined products<br />
exports, by an amount equivalent to 60% of <strong>the</strong> crude export duty. The third and final measure being<br />
considered is an increase in <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong>oline excise tax by RUB1 per litre over <strong>the</strong> period 2011-2013.<br />
On December 1 2009, <strong>the</strong> Kremlin scrapped export duty on 13 main East Siberian projects and all<br />
projects in <strong>the</strong> Black and Okhotsk seas. Rosneft said in November 2009 that it expects <strong>the</strong> tax holiday for<br />
East Siberian fields, which includes Vankor, Verknechonsk and Talakan, to last until 2013-2015, bringing<br />
significant savings to <strong>the</strong> industry. The government currently plans to end <strong>the</strong> duty in 2011. Meanwhile,<br />
<strong>the</strong> tax exemptions for Black Sea production have been granted for up to 15 years or until 20mn tonnes<br />
(146.7mn bbl) of <strong>oil</strong> have been produced, while tax exemptions for producers in <strong>the</strong> Sea of Okhotsk in <strong>the</strong><br />
Far East would be granted for up to 15 years or until 30mn tonnes (220mn bbl) of <strong>oil</strong> have been produced.<br />
The <strong>oil</strong> export duty for fields elsewhere in Russia increased by 17% in December 2009 to US$271/tonne,<br />
equivalent to US$37.10/bbl.<br />
According to anonymous government and industry sources cited by Vedomosti in March 2010, <strong>the</strong> export<br />
duty holiday on <strong>the</strong> main East Siberian <strong>oil</strong> fields will remain in place in 2010 but may be revoked in 2011.<br />
According to Vedomosti's sources, <strong>the</strong> re-introduction of export duties on East Siberian crude would cost<br />
<strong>the</strong> major producers in <strong>the</strong> region, namely Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz and TNK-BP, over US$2bn in total.<br />
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 7
Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
While <strong>the</strong> policy shift would reduce <strong>the</strong> profitability of <strong>the</strong> fields, it is unlikely to have an impact on <strong>the</strong><br />
progress of East Siberian upstream developments in <strong>the</strong> short term.<br />
To stimulate projects in <strong>the</strong> Caspian Sea, Russia has exempted <strong>the</strong> first 730mn bbl of <strong>oil</strong> produced in <strong>the</strong><br />
region from mineral extraction tax. However, Luk<strong>oil</strong>'s president, Vagit Alekperov, has also been calling<br />
for an export tax holiday for offshore fields, <strong>the</strong> fiscal incentive currently enjoyed by operators in East<br />
Siberia. At <strong>the</strong> Yuriy Korchagin opening ceremony, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said he would<br />
consider Alekperov's request and in July 2010 Luk<strong>oil</strong> said that it had reached a preliminary agreement<br />
with <strong>the</strong> finance ministry to halve export duties on North Caspian <strong>oil</strong>. Any lasting fiscal concessions,<br />
however, are unlikely. First, <strong>the</strong> Russian finance ministry is strongly opposed to any fur<strong>the</strong>r loss of state<br />
revenue through concessions to <strong>oil</strong> companies. Second, <strong>the</strong> shallow waters in <strong>the</strong> North Caspian do not<br />
present <strong>the</strong> same logistical and technological challenges as <strong>the</strong> remote East Siberian deposits. Third,<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong>, which would stand to be <strong>the</strong> main beneficiary of any fur<strong>the</strong>r tax breaks, does not enjoy <strong>the</strong> same<br />
influence in <strong>the</strong> Kremlin as its state-connected rivals Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz, both of which are big<br />
East Siberian players.<br />
On January 1 2009, <strong>the</strong> Russian government reduced MET to encourage <strong>the</strong> reinvestment of corporate<br />
profits into E&P. The amendment to <strong>the</strong> tax code, agreed in May 2008, increased <strong>the</strong> tax-free MET<br />
threshold from US$9/bbl to US$15/bbl. According to <strong>the</strong> country’s Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, this<br />
would allow <strong>oil</strong> producers to save over US$4bn annually.<br />
According to <strong>the</strong> Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MNRE), <strong>the</strong> MET and export duties<br />
account for about 95% of <strong>oil</strong> producers’ tax payments, with <strong>the</strong> tax burden exceeding 68% of <strong>the</strong>ir gross<br />
revenue. Such a revenue-based system is effective for rent collection and works well for mature projects<br />
with low finding, development and lifting costs but fails to encourage new developments. The ministry<br />
estimates that if Russia implements <strong>the</strong> new fiscal measures, <strong>the</strong> country could increase production to a<br />
sustainable 10.2mn b/d by 2013. If it does not reform its tax framework, however, its own projections<br />
show production falling to 9mn b/d by 2013. The structure of <strong>the</strong> tax regime was partly responsible for<br />
<strong>the</strong> fall in <strong>the</strong> country's <strong>oil</strong> production in 2008, <strong>the</strong> first annual decline in eight years, which occurred<br />
despite a 30% increase in upstream capex.<br />
In July 2009 <strong>the</strong> Russian government announced that it would not increase <strong>gas</strong> production and export<br />
taxes as had been earlier suggested by <strong>the</strong> Finance Ministry. Russia has been assessing ways to source<br />
extra cash to offset declining revenues in <strong>the</strong> recession. The Finance Ministry had <strong>the</strong>refore proposed to<br />
increase <strong>the</strong> tax on <strong>gas</strong> production from RUB147 (US$4.6) per thousand cubic metres (mcm) to<br />
RUB162/mcm and to increase <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> export duty from 30% to 35%. It was estimated that <strong>the</strong><br />
government would yield an additional RUB60bn (RUB53bn via export tax and RUB7bn via extraction<br />
tax) through <strong>the</strong> suggested tax increases, most of which would be paid by Gazprom.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
In <strong>the</strong> past, Gazprom has successfully managed to fend off attempts by <strong>the</strong> Finance Ministry to increase<br />
its tax burden by arguing that it already faces extremely high new-generation E&P costs. This time,<br />
Gazprom has suggested that ra<strong>the</strong>r than increasing tax on production and exports, an import tariff should<br />
be introduced. Taxing <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> that Gazprom purchases from Central Asia (and resells to Europe) would<br />
likely cost <strong>the</strong> company less as <strong>the</strong> volumes it buys from abroad are significantly lower than its domestic<br />
output. Putin has responded to Gazprom's proposal saying that as <strong>the</strong> introduction of import tariffs were<br />
'not just an economic question', <strong>the</strong> government would look into <strong>the</strong> issue at a later stage.<br />
Offshore Exploration<br />
Russia may relax rules effectively limiting offshore E&P in <strong>the</strong> country to Rosneft and Gazprom,<br />
according to a <strong>report</strong> by <strong>the</strong> Moscow Times newspaper in March 2010. The <strong>report</strong>, which cited deputy<br />
energy minister Sergei Donskoy, said <strong>the</strong> proposal would allow subsidiaries of <strong>the</strong> two companies to join<br />
<strong>the</strong>m in offshore exploration and could lead to IOCs also becoming involved.<br />
In <strong>the</strong> Moscow Times article Donskoy claimed that <strong>the</strong> NREM believes Gazprom and Rosneft have<br />
insufficient resources to develop Russia's continental shelf on <strong>the</strong>ir own. Under a plan drafted by <strong>the</strong><br />
ministry, <strong>the</strong> companies would be allowed to share access with <strong>the</strong>ir subsidiaries and could farm out a<br />
stake of up to 50% in offshore projects to foreign companies. The proposal would also allow any of <strong>the</strong><br />
subsidiaries to develop offshore fields on <strong>the</strong>ir own or in partnership with o<strong>the</strong>r companies. However, <strong>the</strong><br />
newspaper also <strong>report</strong>ed that it is unclear whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> proposal has been submitted to <strong>the</strong> Russian cabinet.<br />
Under legislation passed in 2008, offshore fields in Russia can only be developed by companies in which<br />
<strong>the</strong> government owns a stake of 50% or greater. In addition, companies applying to work on <strong>the</strong> fields<br />
must have a five-year record of working on such projects, effectively limiting participation to Gazprom<br />
and Rosneft. It is arguable that this has damaged Russian investment in offshore areas. The two<br />
companies invested only RUR56.4bn (US$1.9bn at 2010 rates) in E&P offshore Russia in 2008, a rate<br />
that Donskoy claimed would mean ministry targets for offshore areas would take 165 years to fulfil.<br />
Government Policy<br />
Under <strong>the</strong> Energy Strategy 2030, Russia is expecting to sustain its <strong>oil</strong> output at roughly 2009 levels and<br />
dramatically boost <strong>gas</strong> production. The plan, drafted in August and approved in November 2009, calls for<br />
annual production of 10.6-10.7mn b/d of <strong>oil</strong> and 885-940bcm of <strong>gas</strong> by 2030. Exports of crude and <strong>oil</strong><br />
products are expected to rise to 6.6mn b/d while <strong>gas</strong> sales abroad are to reach 349-368bcm by that year.<br />
Most of <strong>the</strong> extra <strong>gas</strong> exports are expected to be absorbed by Asia. To achieve <strong>the</strong> set output growth, <strong>the</strong><br />
government wants an annual investment of US$28.4bn (late 2009 exchange rate) in <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> sector and<br />
US$27bn in <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> sector. The <strong>oil</strong> output target is <strong>the</strong>oretically achievable, especially after a downward<br />
revision of <strong>the</strong> August 2009 draft. The level of capex outlined in <strong>the</strong> plan, however, is unlikely to be<br />
sufficient. Gas production goals look extremely ambitious outright given <strong>the</strong> current volumes and<br />
dynamics of <strong>the</strong> global supply and demand.<br />
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 9
Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
The government is moving forward plans to privatise a larger share of Rosneft. In July 2010, <strong>the</strong> Finance<br />
Ministry included <strong>the</strong> country's largest <strong>oil</strong> producer in <strong>the</strong> list of nine companies earmarked for partial<br />
privatisation in 2011-2013 in an attempt to eliminate <strong>the</strong> budget deficit. Up to 24.16% of Rosneft could be<br />
sold, leaving <strong>the</strong> state with <strong>the</strong> 51% controlling stake. As <strong>the</strong> jewel in <strong>the</strong> Russian state sector's crown, <strong>the</strong><br />
Rosneft stake could provide around RUB500bn (US$16.5bn) for <strong>the</strong> treasury, or half <strong>the</strong> overall<br />
divestment target. A non-controlling stake in Transneft may also be sold, although government officials<br />
have been given conflicting signals.<br />
In July 2008, Russia’s state market regulator, <strong>the</strong> Federal Financial Markets Service (FFMS), put a 25%<br />
cap on <strong>the</strong> proportion of shares domestic mineral resources companies, and o<strong>the</strong>r ‘strategic’ industries,<br />
can list abroad. Moreover, under <strong>the</strong> new rules, only 5% of <strong>the</strong> energy companies’ total sales are allowed<br />
to come from operations in foreign countries. This will push Russian companies to raise finance at home,<br />
in line with President Dmitry Medvedev’s plans to turn Moscow into a major financial centre by 2020.<br />
The head of <strong>the</strong> FFMS said at <strong>the</strong> time that <strong>the</strong> companies’ shares can, and <strong>the</strong>refore must, be traded in<br />
roubles in Russia, adding that all <strong>the</strong> necessary conditions to enable that process were in place. The ruling<br />
is <strong>the</strong> most explicit recent step in <strong>the</strong> Kremlin’s programme of consolidating control over Russia’s<br />
mineral resources and suggests fur<strong>the</strong>r downside risks to an investment climate already marred by a poor<br />
licensing, privatisation and regulatory structure.<br />
As <strong>the</strong> extent of <strong>the</strong> global economic meltdown became clear in September 2008, Russia's main producers<br />
collectively approached <strong>the</strong> Kremlin for assistance. The CEOs of Luk<strong>oil</strong>, TNK-BP and Rosneft plus<br />
Gazprom’s Deputy Chairman Alexander Ananenkov wrote to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin asking for<br />
state credit ‘to pay for foreign debts’. Although <strong>the</strong> companies did not specify <strong>the</strong> required sum, <strong>the</strong>y<br />
argued that <strong>the</strong> overall debt volume of <strong>the</strong> Russian energy sector was around US$80bn and required state<br />
action. The companies also requested Putin to order <strong>the</strong> finance ministry and <strong>the</strong> central bank to work out<br />
a mechanism of financing strategic projects with <strong>the</strong> help of 'state targeted credits'.<br />
The government has signalled its intention to provide US$50bn from Russia's gold and foreign exchange<br />
reserves to help refinance domestic corporations' foreign debt and grant selected tax holidays. Although<br />
<strong>the</strong>se moves will be supportive, <strong>the</strong>y may not be enough on <strong>the</strong>ir own to help Russia's major <strong>oil</strong> producers<br />
ride out <strong>the</strong> current crisis. Each of <strong>the</strong> major companies is <strong>the</strong>refore also adopting its own strategies to<br />
minimise <strong>the</strong> negative repercussions of <strong>the</strong> economic downturn.<br />
International Energy Relations<br />
South Korea<br />
Gazprom and its South Korean counterpart Ko<strong>gas</strong> signed an MoU in June 2009 to jointly study <strong>the</strong><br />
options for delivering Russian <strong>gas</strong> to South Korea. In particular, <strong>the</strong> MoU will look at ways of supplying<br />
South Korea with <strong>gas</strong> from <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin projects. According to Platts, under <strong>the</strong> terms of a previous<br />
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agreement signed by Ko<strong>gas</strong> and Gazprom in September 2008, <strong>the</strong> Korean company plans to import<br />
10bcm per annum of Russian <strong>gas</strong> between 2015 and 2045.<br />
Following <strong>the</strong> launch of <strong>the</strong> Gazprom-led Sakhalin-II project in April 2009, Ko<strong>gas</strong> began receiving<br />
Russian LNG under a 2.2bcm (1.6mn tpa) supply contract. Ko<strong>gas</strong>, one of <strong>the</strong> world’s largest <strong>gas</strong> buyers,<br />
is now looking to boost <strong>the</strong>se Russian <strong>gas</strong> imports significantly by expanding <strong>the</strong> regional LNG export<br />
capacity and/or ensuring <strong>the</strong> extension of <strong>the</strong> planned Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok <strong>gas</strong> pipeline into<br />
<strong>the</strong> Korean peninsula. An MoU on jointly constructing an LNG terminal on Russia’s Pacific coast was<br />
signed by Gazprom and Ko<strong>gas</strong> in September 2009. Additionally, two pipeline options between Russia<br />
and South Korea are currently being evaluated: <strong>the</strong> overland pipeline via North Korea and <strong>the</strong> direct<br />
undersea pipeline. The first option suffers from severe geopolitical risks while <strong>the</strong> second option presents<br />
partners with formidable technological and financial challenges.<br />
In April 2010 Gazprom’s head of foreign projects, Stanislav Tsyganov, said that South Korea and Russia<br />
were expected to begin a new round of talks in mid-April on a <strong>gas</strong> interconnector between <strong>the</strong> countries.<br />
However, it is unclear what route <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> interconnector could now take, following a marked deterioration<br />
in relations between <strong>the</strong> two Koreas in mid-2010. Tsyganov also poured cold water on <strong>the</strong> subsea route<br />
plans, claiming that <strong>the</strong> shallowness and uneven surface of <strong>the</strong> seabed in <strong>the</strong> area makes <strong>the</strong> project highly<br />
challenging from a technical perspective. The numerous difficulties with both pipeline options suggest to<br />
us that no concrete decision will be reached during this round of talks. Longer term, we believe <strong>the</strong><br />
pipeline will not be built until <strong>the</strong> political unification of <strong>the</strong> Korean peninsula.<br />
China<br />
In February 2009, Moscow and Beijing signed a major energy agreement that will see <strong>the</strong> Russian state<br />
<strong>oil</strong> sector receive US$25bn in Chinese loans in return for a commitment to sell China 15mn tpa of crude<br />
(300,000b/d) between 2011 and 2030. The agreement was made up of four deals. The first two concern<br />
long-term loans to be provided by <strong>the</strong> China Development Bank to Rosneft, which will receive US$15bn,<br />
and <strong>oil</strong> pipeline monopoly Transneft, which will receive US$10bn. The third is a 20-year <strong>oil</strong> supply<br />
contract between China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Rosneft, and <strong>the</strong> fourth is an<br />
agreement between CNPC and Transneft regarding <strong>the</strong> construction and exploitation of <strong>the</strong> China-bound<br />
branch of <strong>the</strong> East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline.<br />
Although <strong>the</strong> financial terms of <strong>the</strong> deals were withheld, two unnamed Russian government sources<br />
unofficially provided details. According to an official in <strong>the</strong> Russian energy ministry, quoted by<br />
Vedomosti, <strong>the</strong> price of <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> supplied will be calibrated monthly, based on <strong>the</strong> Platts and Argus trade<br />
quotes for <strong>the</strong> Kozmino terminal. A high-level official quoted by Reuters <strong>report</strong>ed that <strong>the</strong> interest rates of<br />
<strong>the</strong> loans will be pegged to LIBOR and will fluctuate between 5% and 5.5%. According to Russian<br />
energy minister Sergei Shmatko, Rosneft and Transneft will spend <strong>the</strong> Chinese loans in two main areas:<br />
ESPO and 'corporate development', which is likely to imply debt management.<br />
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Norway<br />
Russia and Norway have agreed to settle a dispute over <strong>the</strong>ir maritime border in <strong>the</strong> Barents Sea, signing<br />
a treaty in September 2010. The dispute, which centred on 176,000sq km of sea, had prevented <strong>the</strong> area<br />
from being fully opened up to <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> exploration. The resolution of <strong>the</strong> dispute will boost efforts to<br />
develop <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> resources of <strong>the</strong> Barents Sea.<br />
The disagreement between <strong>the</strong> two countries, which dates back to around 1970, was based on conflicting<br />
claims to an area of around 176,000sq km in <strong>the</strong> centre of <strong>the</strong> sea. Norway based its claim on <strong>the</strong> 'median<br />
line' principle outlined in <strong>the</strong> UN Convention on <strong>the</strong> Territorial Sea and Contiguous Zones (1964) and <strong>the</strong><br />
UN Convention on <strong>the</strong> Law of <strong>the</strong> Sea (UNCLOS, 1982), which stated that <strong>the</strong> maritime border should be<br />
drawn equidistantly between <strong>the</strong> two countries. The Soviet Union, and later Russia, countered that<br />
Russia's size relative to Norway dictated that it should receive a proportionally larger share of <strong>the</strong> sea and<br />
that it had claimed <strong>the</strong> area under dispute since 1926 using <strong>the</strong> meridian line ra<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> median.<br />
The treaty includes provisions for cooperation in <strong>the</strong> development of hydrocarbons in <strong>the</strong> case of any new<br />
discoveries being made that straddle <strong>the</strong> demarcation line. The two sides will also cooperate on<br />
determining <strong>the</strong> outer limit of <strong>the</strong> continental shelf in accordance with UNCLOS.<br />
Qatar<br />
In a March 2010 press statement Gazprom said that Qatar had expressed interest in becoming involved in<br />
projects in <strong>the</strong> Yamal Peninsula at a working meeting between Gazprom's management committee and<br />
<strong>the</strong> Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassem Bin Jabor al-Thani. According to Gazprom, <strong>the</strong> two<br />
sides discussed potential cooperation in LNG transactions and swap deals between LNG and pipeline <strong>gas</strong><br />
in <strong>the</strong> European and Asia-Pacific markets. In addition Gazprom claimed that <strong>the</strong> Qatari delegation had<br />
expressed interest in projects in <strong>the</strong> Yamal Peninsula, particularly in <strong>the</strong> possibility of commercialising<br />
<strong>the</strong> Tambeyskoe <strong>gas</strong> fields through <strong>the</strong> Yamal LNG project.<br />
Qatar's discussion of <strong>gas</strong> cooperation with Russia will sound worrying to European <strong>gas</strong> consumers, which<br />
have taken advantage of <strong>the</strong> changing differential between LNG and pipeline <strong>gas</strong> prices to drive down <strong>the</strong><br />
cost of energy imports. By cooperating over pricing <strong>the</strong> two countries could benefit as European <strong>gas</strong><br />
demand recovers in <strong>the</strong> aftermath of <strong>the</strong> global economic downturn.<br />
Belarus<br />
Russia and Belarus have had several disputes over energy supplies and pricing since 1991 when <strong>the</strong> latter<br />
became independent. As a former Soviet Union country, in <strong>the</strong> early 2000s Belarus received <strong>gas</strong> at a price<br />
of around US$46/mcm from Russia, a figure far below <strong>the</strong> market rate. In late 2006, however, as part of a<br />
more general policy of reducing energy subsidies to former Soviet satellites, Russia announced that it<br />
would increase <strong>gas</strong> prices, prompting Belarus to introduce an <strong>oil</strong> transit fee that led to Russia temporarily<br />
cutting off its supplies.<br />
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Under a deal to solve <strong>the</strong> crisis, Belarus agreed that Russia would increase <strong>gas</strong> export prices to<br />
US$100/mcm ra<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> initially planned US$200/mcm. The price <strong>report</strong>edly increased to<br />
US$119/mcm in 2008. In return for <strong>the</strong>se subsidised rates, Belarus allowed Gazprom to purchase 12.5%<br />
of its state <strong>gas</strong> transit company Beltransgaz annually from 2008 to 2010 for a total payment of<br />
US$2.5bn. Gas prices continued to rise in 2009, averaging US$150/mcm. During <strong>the</strong> winter period of<br />
peak demand, prices rose fur<strong>the</strong>r from US$121.98/mcm in Q409 to US$169.22/mcm in Q110. In<br />
response, Beltransgaz started paying for <strong>gas</strong> at <strong>the</strong> lower rate of US$150/mcm, <strong>the</strong> average 2009 price.<br />
Gazprom claims that Beltransgaz owes US$137.49mn for <strong>gas</strong> imports in <strong>the</strong> peak period of Q110. This<br />
amount is set to increase, and Gazprom estimates that at this rate Belarus's <strong>gas</strong> debt could reach<br />
US$500mn by <strong>the</strong> end of 2010.<br />
In BMI’s view <strong>the</strong> current situation is unsustainable and is likely to lead to a renewed flare-up of <strong>the</strong> two<br />
countries’ long-running dispute unless Belarus agrees to pay <strong>the</strong> higher price demanded by Russia. One<br />
possible outcome is that Belarus will offer Russian companies an increased stake in its main energy<br />
infrastructure companies, most likely in Beltransgaz and Belarus’s Mozyr refinery.<br />
Kazakhstan<br />
Russia and Kazakhstan in September 2010 agreed to start jointly developing <strong>the</strong> Imashev <strong>gas</strong> and<br />
condensate field, which straddles <strong>the</strong> border of <strong>the</strong> two countries. The move follows a five-year period of<br />
near inactivity at <strong>the</strong> field, following a deal in January 2005 demarcating <strong>the</strong> Russia-Kazakhstan border.<br />
This progress on <strong>the</strong> field's development is a sign of Russia and Kazakhstan's willingness to cooperate on<br />
<strong>the</strong> development of shared resources.<br />
The Imashev field is located on <strong>the</strong> border between Russia's Astrakhan Oblast and Kazakhstan's Atyrau<br />
Province near <strong>the</strong> Caspian Sea. The field is Kazakhstan's second largest <strong>gas</strong> field after Karachaganak,<br />
according to Kazakh news agency IRBIS, but it has not been developed owing to a dispute over <strong>the</strong><br />
border with Russia. In January 2005, however, <strong>the</strong> two countries signed a border demarcation agreement<br />
under which Kazakhstan ceded a border village covering part of <strong>the</strong> field to Russia, in return for territory<br />
elsewhere and an agreement to develop <strong>the</strong> field jointly with Russia.<br />
Following <strong>the</strong> Seventh Forum of Russia-Kazakhstan Inter-Regional Cooperation held in Ust-<br />
Kamenogorsk on September 6-7 2010, <strong>the</strong> two countries announced that <strong>the</strong>y have now agreed to survey<br />
<strong>the</strong> field's reserves and prepare it for development. Russia's ITAR-TASS news agency <strong>report</strong>ed that <strong>the</strong><br />
field has estimated reserves of 128.7bcm of <strong>gas</strong> and 20.7mn tonnes of <strong>gas</strong> condensate, equivalent to<br />
186.6mn bbl. Kazakh <strong>oil</strong> minister Sauat Mynbayev said that <strong>the</strong> field will be <strong>the</strong> first to be developed on<br />
<strong>the</strong> territory of <strong>the</strong> two states.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>rs<br />
In May 2009, Japan and Russia signed a raft of energy cooperation deals. The deals include a joint <strong>oil</strong><br />
exploration agreement, an accord that will see Russia supply enriched uranium to Japan, and a MoU to<br />
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look at ways of transporting <strong>gas</strong> from Vladivostok to Japan, with additional deals likely to be signed in<br />
future.<br />
Gas Transit<br />
Executives from US <strong>oil</strong> majors have accompanied US President Barack Obama on his state visit to<br />
Moscow in July 2009, holding negotiations over expanding <strong>the</strong>ir presence in Russia. Neil Duffin, head of<br />
ExxonMobil project development unit, told Reuters during <strong>the</strong> trip that <strong>the</strong> company wanted Russia to<br />
make sweetening amendments to its subs<strong>oil</strong> law.<br />
Ukraine<br />
As a result of pricing, payment and transit disagreements, Russia cut off <strong>gas</strong> supplies to Ukraine on<br />
January 1 2009, causing a knock-on effect on European flows by January 7. Bitter wrangling between<br />
Moscow and Kiev ensued while supply disruptions in Eastern and south-eastern Europe reached crisis<br />
point. After a number of false starts, <strong>the</strong> flow of <strong>gas</strong> was eventually restored on January 20. Tense<br />
negotiations between <strong>the</strong> two countries over <strong>gas</strong>-related debts and prices continued throughout 2009<br />
before an uneasy truce between Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Yulia<br />
Tymoshenko was established in November of that year. While <strong>the</strong> likelihood of a new <strong>gas</strong> supply cut in<br />
<strong>the</strong> winter of 2009/10 is significantly lower, <strong>the</strong> reputations of both countries as a reliable energy supplier<br />
and a transit state respectively have taken a battering, and <strong>the</strong> dispute has encouraged <strong>the</strong> EU to accelerate<br />
its <strong>gas</strong> supply diversification programme.<br />
Gazprom and Ukraine's state-owned Naftogaz in November 2009 agreed to reduce Ukraine's <strong>gas</strong> imports<br />
in 2010 to 33.75bcm, down from <strong>the</strong> previously contracted 52bcm for that year. It was also agreed that<br />
Ukraine would not be fined for buying less <strong>gas</strong> in 2009. Between January and October 2009, Ukraine is<br />
said to have imported just 18.85bcm compared with <strong>the</strong> contracted 31.7bcm, according to Gazprom. Over<br />
2009, Ukraine had agreed to buy a total of 42bcm. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, Russia had agreed to increase <strong>the</strong> transit<br />
fees it pays Ukraine by 60% in 2010. In 2009, transit fees stood at US$1.70 per mcm per 100km.<br />
While <strong>the</strong> actual <strong>gas</strong> prices have not been released, Tymoshenko said that <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> price Ukraine pays 'will<br />
be almost <strong>the</strong> same in 2010 as it [was] in 2009'. Fur<strong>the</strong>r details on <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> price and <strong>the</strong> transit fees<br />
Ukraine and Russia will pay respectively in 2010 have not been released. In January 2009, Putin and<br />
Tymoshenko agreed that in 2009 Ukraine would receive a 20% discount on European market prices in<br />
return for maintaining transit fees at <strong>the</strong> same rate as in 2008, with Ukraine to start paying European-level<br />
prices and for transit fees also to reach market levels as of January 1 2010. It is unclear whe<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Tymoshenko’s comment means that <strong>the</strong> absolute price Ukraine will pay for <strong>gas</strong> imports in 2010 will<br />
remain more or less <strong>the</strong> same or whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> same 20%-discount principle will continue to apply. The<br />
price that Gazprom charged Ukraine in Q109 was US$360/mcm, almost exactly double <strong>the</strong><br />
US$179.50/mcm Ukraine paid in 2008.<br />
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In January 2009 Putin and Tymoshenko also agreed to eliminate RosUkrEnergo. This had been agreed<br />
before, in October 2008, so whe<strong>the</strong>r Naftogaz and Gazprom will from now on trade directly remains to be<br />
seen. RosUkrEnergo, which was created in 2004 to replace EuralTransGas as <strong>the</strong> intermediary to manage<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> trade between Turkmenistan and Ukraine, was established as a middleman between Gazprom and<br />
Naftogaz in January 2006 following <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> pricing dispute. A Swiss-registered monopoly JV,<br />
RosUkrEnergo, is 50% owned by Gazprom, with <strong>the</strong> remaining 50% owned by Raiffeisen Investment<br />
through its Swiss-registered Centra<strong>gas</strong> Holding, acting on behalf of a consortium of Ukrainian<br />
businessmen. RosUkrEnergo has certainly profited from <strong>the</strong> Russia-Ukraine <strong>gas</strong> trade, and Naftogaz will<br />
be hoping that that company's elimination will help its own balance sheets.<br />
Turkmenistan<br />
Relations between Ashgabat and Moscow have soured following a disagreement in April 2009 over an<br />
explosion on <strong>the</strong> pipeline that transports <strong>gas</strong> from Turkmenistan's Dauletabad field to Russia via<br />
Uzbekistan. The Turkmen government blamed Russia for unilaterally cutting <strong>the</strong> volume of deliveries<br />
through <strong>the</strong> pipeline without giving Turkmenistan due warning to relieve <strong>the</strong> extra pressure on <strong>the</strong> route,<br />
<strong>the</strong>reby causing a rupture. Moscow pinned <strong>the</strong> blame on technical problems on <strong>the</strong> Turkmen side, but<br />
Turkmen President Kurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has demanded an international investigation and has<br />
said he will seek compensation from Gazprom.<br />
Gazprom clarified its stance on <strong>the</strong> incident in June 2009, stating that it reduced <strong>the</strong> pipeline’s throughput<br />
by 80% after notifying Ashgabat that it could no longer take <strong>the</strong> normal volumes owing to <strong>the</strong> economic<br />
slump. In response to Russia’s cut in <strong>gas</strong> purchases, Turkmenistan has boosted its efforts to diversify its<br />
customer base, announcing plans to raise exports to Iran, launch a new <strong>gas</strong> pipeline to China and supply<br />
<strong>gas</strong> for <strong>the</strong> EU-backed Nabucco pipeline. Gas exports finally resumed in January 2010, under <strong>the</strong> terms of<br />
a new agreement signed in late December 2009, which provides for 30bcm of Turkmen <strong>gas</strong> to be<br />
exported to Russia in 2010 and annually to 2028. Volumes have been cut drastically from <strong>the</strong> 70-80bcm<br />
of exports envisioned under <strong>the</strong> countries' previous <strong>gas</strong> supply agreement, which was signed in 2003, and<br />
from <strong>the</strong> 50bcm that Turkmenistan exported to Russia in 2008.<br />
Uzbekistan<br />
Gazprom signed a one-year supply contract with Uzbekistan in December 2009. Under <strong>the</strong> new contract<br />
Gazprom will purchase 15.50bcm from Uzbekistan in 2010, up from 11.25bcm contracted in 2009. The<br />
deal was signed between Gazprom and Uztransgaz, <strong>the</strong> transportation and export unit of state-run <strong>gas</strong><br />
company Uzbekneftegaz. Although nei<strong>the</strong>r side has announced <strong>the</strong> price formula, Gazprom said that it<br />
will be in line with conditions in <strong>the</strong> European <strong>gas</strong> market. Following <strong>the</strong> deal, Gazprom's deputy<br />
chairman, Alexander Medvedev, said that <strong>the</strong> two sides had agreed to start preparation for a long-term<br />
contract. The current <strong>gas</strong> supply framework, signed in 2002, is due to expire in 2012.<br />
Poland<br />
Russian-Polish relations have often been fractious, although <strong>the</strong>y have improved slightly since 2009<br />
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under <strong>the</strong> more pragmatic new government of Donald Tusk. A new <strong>gas</strong> supply deal between Polskie<br />
Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG) and Gazprom was ratified by <strong>the</strong> Polish government on<br />
February 10. Under <strong>the</strong> agreement, Gazprom has agreed to increase <strong>gas</strong> supplies to 11bcm a year. The<br />
existing supply deal between <strong>the</strong> countries, known as <strong>the</strong> Yamal contract, has been extended from 2022 to<br />
2037 and <strong>the</strong> two sides also agreed to extend an earlier deal for <strong>gas</strong> transit via <strong>the</strong> Yamal-Europe pipeline,<br />
which runs to Germany, until 2045.<br />
The deal's slow progress towards approval reflects disagreements between Poland and Russia over transit<br />
fees payable to EuRoPolgaz, <strong>the</strong> operator of <strong>the</strong> Polish section of <strong>the</strong> Yamal pipeline. Between 2006 and<br />
2009 Gazprom unilaterally decided to pay lower transit fees than those set by <strong>the</strong> Polish energy market<br />
regulator URE. According to a <strong>report</strong> in Polish daily newspaper Rzeczpospolita, <strong>the</strong> two sides have come<br />
to an agreement under which PGNiG will receive a discount on <strong>the</strong> price paid for <strong>gas</strong> deliveries in return<br />
for dropping its claim against Gazprom. Putin claimed in September 2009 that under international<br />
agreements <strong>the</strong> company should be owned 50:50 by Gazprom and PiGNIG. He called for an investigation<br />
into <strong>the</strong> way that <strong>the</strong> Polish company Gas Trading had acquired a 4% stake in <strong>the</strong> project, with Gazprom<br />
and PGNiG holding 48% each.<br />
The Baltic Region<br />
Gazprom in September 2009 began transporting <strong>gas</strong> along <strong>the</strong> second branch of <strong>the</strong> Minsk-Vilnius-<br />
Kaunas-Kaliningrad pipeline, increasing its capacity from 1.4bcm to 2.5bcm. While <strong>the</strong> expansion of <strong>the</strong><br />
pipeline is aimed at increasing <strong>gas</strong> supplies to <strong>the</strong> Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, Lithuania's <strong>gas</strong><br />
company Lietuvos Dujos views it as essential for its security of supply. Gazprom also built an<br />
underground <strong>gas</strong> storage facility at Kaliningrad, which was completed in late-2009. Gazprom supplies<br />
Lithuania with <strong>gas</strong> under a long-term agreement effective through 2015. In 2008 Lithuania received<br />
3.1bcm of Russian <strong>gas</strong> in 2008.<br />
Tensions between Gazprom and Estonia and Lithuania have been rising since <strong>the</strong> two countries<br />
announced plans in mid-2010 to break up <strong>the</strong>ir Gazprom-controlled <strong>gas</strong> monopolies in an attempt to<br />
loosen Russia's grip on <strong>the</strong>ir energy markets and comply with <strong>the</strong> EU's energy competition directive.<br />
Prospects for an amicable solution have since been falling. On August 25 2010, <strong>the</strong> state-controlled<br />
Russian <strong>gas</strong> giant sent a letter to Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubillius, threatening international<br />
court action if his government splits up Lietuvos Dujos into trading and distribution arms. Gazprom<br />
argues <strong>the</strong> reform will wipe out its 34% stake in Dujos, adding that Lithuanian government acted<br />
unilaterally without consulting <strong>the</strong> firm's shareholders. Kubillius told local media that <strong>the</strong> letter amounted<br />
to 'big company pressuring a small country', setting <strong>the</strong> scene for a stand-off with Moscow.<br />
Lithuania is <strong>the</strong> largest <strong>gas</strong> consumer among <strong>the</strong> three Baltic states and like <strong>the</strong> rest of <strong>the</strong> region is<br />
wholly reliant on Gazprom for its <strong>gas</strong> supplies. Toge<strong>the</strong>r with Estonia, Lithuania has long complained that<br />
it is forced to pay some of <strong>the</strong> highest <strong>gas</strong> prices in Europe. According to local media, Gazprom will<br />
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charge Lithuania US$320/mcm over 2010. An average realised <strong>gas</strong> price paid by Gazprom's non-FSS<br />
European customers in H110 was just below US$300mcm, with most FSS states paying significantly less.<br />
Gazprom argues that owing to <strong>the</strong> small absolute volumes consumed by <strong>the</strong> Baltic states, it needs a price<br />
premium to make supplying <strong>the</strong> region worthwhile.<br />
Gazprom has managed to keep a presence in all <strong>the</strong> Baltic markets following <strong>the</strong> break-up of <strong>the</strong> Soviet<br />
Union and owns about a third of <strong>the</strong> national <strong>gas</strong> companies of Estonia (37%), Latvia (34%) and<br />
Lithuania (34%). The more Russia-friendly Latvia appears to be content with <strong>the</strong> status quo for <strong>the</strong> time<br />
being. Its two neighbours, however, have become decisively uncomfortable in Gazprom's grip. The Nord<br />
Stream subsea pipeline from Russia to Germany, bypassing <strong>the</strong> Baltics, has only raised Vilnius and<br />
Tallinn's energy security fears.<br />
As an alternative to Gazprom's supplies Lithuania is pushing <strong>the</strong> Amber pipeline project. In its revised<br />
form <strong>the</strong> 5bcm pipeline will link <strong>the</strong> country with Poland's planned LNG terminal. The Świnoujście<br />
terminal is due onstream in around 2015. For <strong>the</strong> foreseeable future, however, Lithuania's dependence on<br />
Russian <strong>gas</strong> looks solid. The same applies to even greater extent to Estonia. Until <strong>the</strong> two countries<br />
develop tangible supply alternatives, brinksmanship with Gazprom could lead to some long cold Baltic<br />
nights.<br />
Azerbaijan<br />
In March 2009 Gazprom and Azerbaijan's state-owned Socar signed an MoU for <strong>the</strong> delivery of a<br />
minimum of 500Mcm of Azeri <strong>gas</strong> to Russia a year starting in January 2010. A final binding agreement<br />
followed in October 2009. Socar's CEO Rovnag Abdullayev said following <strong>the</strong> deal that Azerbaijan<br />
would export 1bcm of <strong>gas</strong> to Russia from January 2010. The exported <strong>gas</strong> will be sourced from <strong>the</strong> first<br />
phase of Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz field. At a later stage, Russia may also import <strong>gas</strong> from Shah Deniz's<br />
second phase. Gas from this project has also been earmarked for <strong>the</strong> EU-backed Nabucco pipeline project,<br />
which is intended to supply Europe bypassing Russia.<br />
In January 2010 Gazprom announced plans to double <strong>gas</strong> imports from Azerbaijan to 2bcm from 2011.<br />
Gazprom added earlier in <strong>the</strong> month that it would be willing to buy 'all <strong>gas</strong> exported by Azerbaijan'.<br />
The Middle East<br />
There has been much talk of extending Russia’s Blue Stream pipeline to Turkey fur<strong>the</strong>r south into <strong>the</strong><br />
Middle East. In February 2006, Turkish energy ministry officials claimed that talks were under way<br />
between Gazprom and Turkish state-run <strong>gas</strong> distributor Botaş about extending <strong>the</strong> pipeline through<br />
Turkey to Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Cyprus in a project known as Blue Stream II. Speaking during an<br />
official visit to Turkey in June 2010 however, Prime Minister Putin said Israel is now likely to be<br />
excluded from <strong>the</strong> Blue Stream II project. Putin said that <strong>gas</strong> discoveries in recent years in Israel have<br />
reduced <strong>the</strong> country's future <strong>gas</strong> import projections, making an extension of <strong>the</strong> pipeline to Israel<br />
unnecessary. Putin stressed that <strong>the</strong> decision was not connected to an attack by <strong>the</strong> Israeli navy on a<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Oil Transit<br />
convoy heading towards Gaza, which drew international criticism. The attack does appear to have had an<br />
impact on Turkey's view of <strong>the</strong> project, however, with <strong>the</strong> country's Aksam newspaper citing unnamed<br />
energy ministry sources as saying that Turkey's international agreements with Israel, including Blue<br />
Stream II, would now be reviewed.<br />
The Baltic Region<br />
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin signed an order on December 1 2008 for <strong>the</strong> construction of a<br />
second trunk line of <strong>the</strong> Baltic Pipeline System (BPS). The new line will boost Russia's <strong>oil</strong> export<br />
capacity from <strong>the</strong> Baltic Sea and will provide an alternative export route to <strong>the</strong> Druzhba North pipeline<br />
that runs from Russia through Belarus and Poland into Germany. Transneft proposed building <strong>the</strong> new<br />
BPS trunkline (BPS-2) in January 2007, and <strong>the</strong> government approved <strong>the</strong> project in May 2007. The<br />
existing BPS transports <strong>oil</strong> from European Russia to Primorsk on <strong>the</strong> Gulf of Finland. Construction was<br />
completed in 2001 and current capacity is 1.5mn b/d. BPS-2 will extend 1,300km from <strong>the</strong> Bryansk<br />
region to <strong>the</strong> port of Ust-Luga, near Primorsk, with a branch going to <strong>the</strong> Kirishi refinery. Oil should start<br />
flowing in Q312 at an initial rate of 600,000b/d, with capacity to be raised subsequently to 1mn b/d. The<br />
estimated cost is RUB120-130bn (US$4.3-4.7bn). Construction appears to have been delayed indefinitely<br />
from <strong>the</strong> June 2009 start-up date.<br />
Belarus<br />
Historically Russian companies were exempt from Russian export duties on <strong>oil</strong> exports to Belarus. This<br />
encouraged <strong>the</strong> companies to operate with so-called 'give-and-take' contracts, under which <strong>the</strong>y would<br />
export duty-free crude <strong>oil</strong> to Belarus, where <strong>the</strong>y would process it for a fee at <strong>the</strong> country's refineries<br />
before re-exporting it to Europe. In April 2007, however, as part of a general process of phasing out<br />
energy subsidies to former satellite states, Russia imposed a limited export duty on crude <strong>oil</strong> exports to<br />
Belarus and insisted that Belarus increase excise tax on <strong>oil</strong> products. This led to Russian companies<br />
ceasing <strong>the</strong> 'give-and-take' contracts and companies that had participated, such as Luk<strong>oil</strong>, began selling <strong>oil</strong><br />
directly to <strong>the</strong> owner of <strong>the</strong> country's two refineries, Belneftekhim.<br />
Russia briefly stopped supplying Belarusian refineries in January 2010 after <strong>the</strong> existing supply deal<br />
expired without <strong>the</strong> two sides agreeing on a new framework. Under <strong>the</strong> expired agreement, Belarus had<br />
benefited from preferential <strong>oil</strong> trading terms with its eastern neighbour, with its refineries paying only<br />
around 36% of <strong>the</strong> standard Russian crude export tariff and <strong>the</strong>n making a healthy profit exporting <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
refined products to European customers at market prices. During earlier negotiations over <strong>the</strong> new <strong>oil</strong><br />
deal, Russia had said that it would provide tax-free <strong>oil</strong> to Belarus for domestic consumption, but that <strong>the</strong><br />
country should pay export duties for <strong>oil</strong> exported to Europe.<br />
Belarus argued that this would go against an agreement on a customs union that <strong>the</strong> two countries signed<br />
late in 2009 and responded by demanding higher transit fees for <strong>oil</strong> crossing its territory. This divergence<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
of positions was behind <strong>the</strong> two sides' failure to agree new terms. Oil flows resumed after a precarious<br />
temporary agreement was reached in late January 2010, which committed Belarus to paying full export<br />
duties on re-exported Russian <strong>oil</strong>. All duties, however, are due to disappear after <strong>the</strong> new customs union<br />
between <strong>the</strong> two counties comes into force in mid-2010.<br />
Turkey<br />
The governments of Turkey, Russia and Italy in October 2009 signed a preliminary agreement for <strong>the</strong><br />
construction of <strong>the</strong> Samsun-Ceyhan <strong>oil</strong> pipeline, which would cross Turkey from <strong>the</strong> Black to <strong>the</strong><br />
Mediterranean coast and <strong>the</strong>reby provide Russia with ano<strong>the</strong>r export route for its Black Sea <strong>oil</strong> terminals.<br />
Russia agreed to supply <strong>the</strong> pipeline, also known as <strong>the</strong> Trans Anadolu Pipeline (TAP), earlier in 2009.<br />
The 550km <strong>oil</strong> pipeline will have an initial capacity of 1mn b/d, which will eventually rise to 1.5mn b/d.<br />
No start-up dates have been released. Transneft was offered a 50% stake in <strong>the</strong> pipeline in December<br />
2009, by Anadolu Pipeline Company (TAPCO), a 50:50 JV between Eni and local company Çalik<br />
Energy, which is developing <strong>the</strong> project.<br />
In an effort to fill <strong>the</strong> TAP pipeline, Transneft said in June 2010 that it could support proposals to impose<br />
quotas on shipments of <strong>oil</strong> through <strong>the</strong> Bosphorus. According to remarks made by Transneft's president,<br />
Nikolai Tokarev, at least two proposals are being considered to achieve this. Under one proposal,<br />
companies intending to export <strong>oil</strong> from <strong>the</strong> Black Sea would be given a quota restricting <strong>the</strong> volumes that<br />
can be transported through <strong>the</strong> Bosphorus. Volumes beyond <strong>the</strong> quota would have to be exported by<br />
pipeline. Under <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r proposal, crude <strong>oil</strong> exports through <strong>the</strong> Bosphorus would be halted completely,<br />
forcing companies to transport all <strong>oil</strong> volumes by pipeline. Oil products and petrochemicals would be<br />
unaffected by both proposals and would still be transported through <strong>the</strong> Bosphorus. Tokarev did not<br />
specify how <strong>the</strong> quotas would be imposed.<br />
Table: Key Upstream Players<br />
Company<br />
Oil/liquids<br />
production<br />
(000b/d) Market share (%)<br />
Gas production<br />
(bcm) Market share (%)<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong> 1,830 19.5 7.4 1.2<br />
Surgutneftegaz 1,197 12.1 14.1 2.3<br />
Gazprom Neft*** 957 9.4 na 0.3<br />
Tatneft 519 5.1 0.8 0.1<br />
Gazprom 335 3.3 462 78.3<br />
TNK-BP 1,680 14.7 12 1.9<br />
Rosneft 2,180 21.5 12.4* 2.1<br />
Russneft 254 2.3 na na<br />
Total 11 0.1 0.02 nm<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Table: Key Upstream Players<br />
Company<br />
Oil/liquids<br />
production<br />
(000b/d) Market share (%)<br />
Gas production<br />
(bcm) Market share (%)<br />
Imperial 13.5 0.1 na na<br />
Novatek 60 0.5 32 5.1<br />
Shell 106 1 2 1<br />
Alliance 42e 0.4 na na<br />
Includes JV entitlements, e = estimate, na = not available/applicable. Source: BMI, 2008 company data; , ***includes<br />
all Gazprom Group companies.<br />
Key Downstream Players<br />
Company<br />
Refining capacity<br />
(000b/d) Market share (%) Retail outlets Market share (%)<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong> 894 16.3 2,170 19e<br />
Rosneft 1,130 20.5 1,695 15<br />
Surgutneftegaz 398 7 305 3<br />
Gazprom Neft 964 17.5 1,562 na<br />
Tatneft 80 1.5 484 5<br />
TNK-BP 560 10.1 1,400* na<br />
Bashneft affiliates 500e 9 317 na<br />
*Including Ukraine; e = estimate, na = not available/applicable. Source: BMI. Company data 2009<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Company Profiles<br />
Gazprom<br />
Company Analysis<br />
SWOT Analysis<br />
The threat of a break-up appears to have passed, with<br />
Russia keen to consolidate <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> major’s position,<br />
streng<strong>the</strong>n its grip on aspects of <strong>the</strong> energy market and<br />
liberalise domestic and CIS pricing. It also intends to<br />
increase its direct ownership. With higher domestic selling<br />
prices, earnings will benefit and more cash will be available<br />
for supply and export expansion. The addition of Sibneft<br />
has accelerated <strong>the</strong> growth of Gazprom and established it as<br />
<strong>the</strong> leading Russian generator of hydrocarbons volumes,<br />
revenues and earnings.<br />
Strengths: Dominant share of upstream <strong>gas</strong> supply<br />
Control of <strong>gas</strong> transportation system<br />
Rising export demand for <strong>gas</strong><br />
Huge exploration upside potential<br />
Scope for domestic merger<br />
Weaknesses: Cost and efficiency disadvantages<br />
Rising investment requirement<br />
Artificially low domestic <strong>gas</strong> prices<br />
Financial Statistics<br />
Revenues<br />
• RUB3.0trn (2009)<br />
• RUB3.52trn (2008)<br />
• RUB2.42trn (2007)<br />
• RUB2.15trn (2006)<br />
• RUB1.38trn (2005)<br />
Net income<br />
• RUB793.8bn (2009)<br />
• RUB742.9bn (2008)<br />
• RUB658.0bn (2007)<br />
• RUB613.3bn (2006)<br />
• RUB311.1bn (2005)<br />
Operating Statistics (inc.<br />
Gazprom Neft)<br />
Gas production:<br />
• 462.0bcm (2009)<br />
• 550.0bcm (2008)<br />
• 548.6bcm (2007)<br />
Crude production:<br />
• 645,600b/d (2008)<br />
• 680,000b/d (2007)<br />
Condensate production:<br />
• 220,000b/d (2008)<br />
• 226,000b/d (2007)<br />
Opportunities:<br />
Threats:<br />
Growth in domestic/CEE/EU <strong>gas</strong> demand<br />
Large areas of unexplored territory<br />
Incorporation of Sibneft assets and management<br />
Efficiency gains/price liberalisation<br />
Russian corporate governance<br />
Changes in national energy policy<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Market Position<br />
Gazprom accounts for 80% of Russia’s <strong>gas</strong> production (2009) and holds at least two-thirds of <strong>the</strong> nation’s<br />
<strong>gas</strong> reserves (or 15% of world reserves). The company also has a virtual monopoly control over <strong>the</strong><br />
domestic <strong>gas</strong> pipeline network, which supplies fuel to almost every Russian region, <strong>the</strong> CIS states and<br />
over 25 European nations. The firm remains heavily reliant on overseas <strong>gas</strong> sales, as it is forced to supply<br />
<strong>gas</strong> to <strong>the</strong> domestic market at subsidised rates. Domestic prices, however, are gradually being liberalised<br />
and are set to reach around US$70/mcm in 2010 and US$90/mcm in 2011, up from around US$20/mcm<br />
in early 2000s. Notable foreign assets include minority stakes in China’s West-East <strong>gas</strong> pipeline, and in<br />
phases 2 and 3 of Iran’s giant South Pars project.<br />
Strategy<br />
In 2009, Gazprom’s production fell to 460bcm, according to preliminary government figures. This was<br />
<strong>the</strong> worst performance in Gazprom's history, with <strong>the</strong> current low of 512bcm registered in 2001. In Q110,<br />
however, domestic demand began to recover, pushing up Gazprom's production figures. This led CEO<br />
Alexei Miller to announce a more ambitious target of 529bcm for 2010. In April 2010 he told Russian<br />
media that by 2013 <strong>the</strong> company expected to produce 565.5bcm, which would be a 13-year production<br />
high. Speaking at a news conference on June 9, however, Gazprom's <strong>gas</strong> and condensate departmental<br />
head, Vsevolod Cherepanov, said that from mid-May 2010 <strong>the</strong> company had begun to see a much sharper<br />
seasonal drop in demand than it had expected. Cherepanov said that <strong>the</strong> company has now revised its <strong>gas</strong><br />
production forecasts. The company now expects to produce 519.3bcm in 2010, down roughly 10bcm on<br />
Miller's forecasts. He said that <strong>the</strong> company expects this to increase to 528.6bcm in 2011 and to 542.4bcm<br />
in 2012.<br />
By 2030, Gazprom wants to become a global energy player, reaching new markets with LNG and<br />
underwater pipelines. It wants to add 90mn tonnes of LNG capacity by 2030. At present Sakhalin-II is <strong>the</strong><br />
only operational liquefaction terminal. With output at its mature Western Siberia fields in decline,<br />
Gazprom expects new generation projects in <strong>the</strong> Arctic (Yamal, Shtokman), East Siberia (Kovykta,<br />
Chayandinskoye) and <strong>the</strong> Far East (Sakhalin) to fuel future growth, accounting for half of its production<br />
by 2020. Gazprom also planned to supply about 25% of <strong>the</strong> world’s LNG needs by 2030, but that target<br />
was scrapped following <strong>the</strong> decline of <strong>the</strong> US import demand. By early 2010 Gazprom’s executives had<br />
acknowledged <strong>the</strong> need for a strategic overhaul owing to <strong>the</strong> negative impact of rising domestic US <strong>gas</strong><br />
production. In December 2005, <strong>the</strong>n deputy chairman Medvedev announced Gazprom's aim 'to gain more<br />
than 10% of <strong>the</strong> US market by 2010, increasing to 20% [at a later date]'. With US demand for <strong>gas</strong> imports<br />
on <strong>the</strong> wane, <strong>the</strong>se targets are now looking decidedly unrealistic.<br />
Having scuppered Gazprom's North American ambitions, <strong>the</strong> spreading 'shale revolution', is beginning to<br />
pose a threat to its core business closer to home. The first negative consequences are already being felt by<br />
<strong>the</strong> company, as LNG cargoes head for European ports having been turned away from <strong>the</strong> US. There is,<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
however, a more fundamental threat in <strong>the</strong> making to Gazprom's position in <strong>the</strong> European <strong>gas</strong> market.<br />
Bolstered by <strong>the</strong> successful application of technological advances in hydraulic fracturing (fraccing) in <strong>the</strong><br />
US and Canada, <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> majors are now eyeing European shale plays, moving into such unlikely <strong>gas</strong><br />
producing destinations as Poland and Sweden. Should <strong>the</strong> European shale basins prove to be commercial,<br />
<strong>the</strong> <strong>competitive</strong>ness of Russian <strong>gas</strong> imports in <strong>the</strong> region will be seriously, and perhaps terminally,<br />
undermined.<br />
The Yamal peninsula is believed to contain around 2.14bn bbl of <strong>oil</strong> plus 10.4tcm of <strong>gas</strong>. Although no<br />
firm project timetable has been set, Gazprom is aiming to start producing <strong>the</strong> first 15bcm of <strong>gas</strong> in Yamal<br />
by Q312 (a year later than originally expected) and <strong>the</strong>n gradually boost volumes to 250bcm per year.<br />
The economic downturn, however, has forced <strong>the</strong> company to postpone investment in expensive new<br />
projects. In a setback for its resource nationalism agenda, Gazprom’s debt burden has led <strong>the</strong> company to<br />
express its readiness to reduce its stake in major projects, including Nord Stream and Shtokman, in return<br />
for increased funding from foreign partners.<br />
In February 2009, Russian business daily Kommersant <strong>report</strong>ed that in an attempt to cut costs, Gazprom<br />
may invest exclusively in projects that would be profitable at a Brent price below US$25/bbl, with an<br />
exchange rate of US$1/RUB36. Kommersant <strong>report</strong>ed that planned investments had previously been<br />
based on US$50/bbl. The plan was swiftly denied by <strong>the</strong> company, which stressed that no concrete<br />
strategic decisions have been made. Despite denying <strong>the</strong> <strong>report</strong>, Gazprom’s high debt levels, which stood<br />
at some RUB1.7trn (US$56bn) in mid-2009, must be a concern for <strong>the</strong> company. The Russia-Ukraine <strong>gas</strong><br />
dispute is also likely to have hit its bottom line by around US$1-1.5bn, as well as damaging EU<br />
confidence in Russian <strong>gas</strong> supplies.<br />
The firm’s <strong>report</strong>ed interest in UK <strong>gas</strong> supplier Centrica indicates a determination to gain greater control<br />
over its Western European customers, despite <strong>the</strong> assured political opposition to such a deal. Regardless<br />
of <strong>the</strong> rhetoric, Gazprom is committed to future European energy supplies through pre-existing contracts<br />
and infrastructure. In fact, most of Gazprom’s current export capability is geared towards Western<br />
Europe, and <strong>the</strong> cost of this network should ensure full usage through <strong>the</strong> long term. True, <strong>the</strong> Eurasian<br />
giant is busy courting <strong>the</strong> Asian market, but this relationship is in <strong>the</strong> very early stages.<br />
Gazprom is intensifying its relations with Western Europe. The company confirmed in November 2007<br />
that it is discussing long-term <strong>gas</strong> supply deals with several Italian utilities, including Enel and Edison.<br />
The news follows <strong>the</strong> 2006 agreement between Eni and Gazprom to extend supply contracts to 2035,<br />
which will allow <strong>the</strong> Russian company to sell <strong>gas</strong> directly to <strong>the</strong> Italian market. Gazprom has previously<br />
said that it plans to sell up to 3bcm of <strong>gas</strong> to Italy per annum from 2010. In March 2008, Gazprom<br />
announced that it may swap Russian upstream properties for some of Enel’s power assets. Meanwhile,<br />
January 2008 saw Gazprom announce plans to control 10% of <strong>the</strong> French <strong>gas</strong> market by 2012/13. In 2007<br />
<strong>the</strong> company directly supplied France with only 500Mcm. The bilateral ties are certainly getting closer,<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
with major French utilities EDF and GDF Suez close to getting a minority stake in <strong>the</strong> South Stream and<br />
North Stream pipelines respectively.<br />
In November 2007, Gazprom announced plans to operate a natural <strong>gas</strong> entity in <strong>the</strong> US by 2014. While<br />
realising that <strong>the</strong> company will have to overcome regulatory barriers to enter <strong>the</strong> US market, it has said<br />
that it will use its economic strength to acquire assets.<br />
Latest Developments<br />
Corporate<br />
Gazprom has boosted its 2010 capex despite a downward revenue target revision. In September 2010, <strong>the</strong><br />
company's board approved an amended version of <strong>the</strong> 2010 budget, raising planned investment by 13% to<br />
RUB905bn (US$29bn). To some extent <strong>the</strong> injection of an extra RUB103bn of investment in 2010<br />
reverses Gazprom's belt-tightening in 2009. In November 2009 Gazprom cut its 2009 capex by<br />
RUB216.5bn (US$x). Projects that were put on ice in <strong>the</strong> economic downturn are now gradually being<br />
defrosted. Extra investment in long-term projects such as South Stream and Algerian exploration also<br />
indicates Gazprom's broad strategic ambitions of defending its position in European <strong>gas</strong> markets.<br />
In 2010 Gazprom has been facing pressures to reduce its European prices. One of Gazprom's largest<br />
customers, E.ON Ruhr<strong>gas</strong> of Germany, has <strong>report</strong>edly asked for a fresh price cut in August 2010, only<br />
six months after receiving its first discount. Should E.ON succeed in gaining a concession, o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
European utilities are set to follow suit.<br />
In February 2010 E.ON was among five major European utilities that obtained a price concession on a<br />
take-or-pay long-term supply contract with Gazprom. In E.ON's case, <strong>the</strong> German utility gained a right to<br />
buy 16% of its Russian <strong>gas</strong> imports through to 2012 at spot prices. In H110, Gazprom says it sold <strong>gas</strong> to<br />
Europe on long-term contracts for around US$300/mcm. Prices at UK's National Balancing Point (NBP),<br />
Europe's largest spot hub, averaged US$207/mcm in <strong>the</strong> same period, falling to as low as US$150/mcm in<br />
early 2010.<br />
Fresh demands for discounts are a highly unwelcome development for Gazprom, which has been hoping<br />
for a steady European economic recovery to revive its flagging fortunes in its main market. In Germany<br />
in particular, Gazprom has been losing market share to Norway, and to a lesser extent <strong>the</strong> Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands.<br />
Over 2009 European companies have been talking with Gazprom to reduce <strong>the</strong> volumes of <strong>gas</strong> that <strong>the</strong>y<br />
are committed to buying under long-term 'take-or-pay' contracts. With imported <strong>gas</strong> volumes remaining<br />
below levels agreed with Russia, European buyers are seeking to avoid penalties set out in <strong>the</strong> contracts<br />
by agreeing a reduction in <strong>gas</strong> purchases, as has recently been arranged between Russia and Ukraine.<br />
Citing an unnamed Gazprom source, Russian daily Kommersant stated that <strong>the</strong> first company due to pay<br />
according to <strong>the</strong> 'take-or-pay' contracts is Eni on January 18 2010, followed by Turkey's state-owned<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Botaş and German company E.ON. According to Kommersant, o<strong>the</strong>r companies affected are Germany's<br />
BASF and RWE, and France's GDF Suez and Total.<br />
Gazprom announced <strong>the</strong> country's largest ever debt issuance on April 7 2010, in an attempt to raise<br />
US$10.2bn on Russia's bond market. The decision highlights Gazprom's attempts to take advantage of a<br />
highly active domestic bond market to restructure its long-term debt obligations. Gazprom instructed its<br />
banking arm, Gazprombank and Moscow-based Renaissance Bank to run <strong>the</strong> bond issue programme,<br />
which will comprise 13 issuances over a five-year period.<br />
By July 2009 Gazprom was set to acquire a controlling stake in Kyrgyzstan's national <strong>gas</strong> company<br />
Kyrgyzgaz, following Bishkek’s approval of an agreement allowing Gazprom to participate in <strong>the</strong><br />
company’s privatisation. Gazprom has apparently proposed buying a 75% plus one share in Kyrgyzgaz.<br />
The negotiations, however, are still in progress for unspecified reasons.<br />
In November 2009, Gazprom sold to Germany’s E.ON Ruhr<strong>gas</strong> a 25% stake in Severneftegazprom, a<br />
Gazprom subsidiary and licence holder of <strong>the</strong> Yuzhno-Russkoye <strong>gas</strong> field in West Siberia. In return,<br />
Gazprom received from E.ON a 49% stake in Russia's Gerosgaz, which itself holds an almost 3% stake in<br />
Gazprom. Gazprom now owns 100% of Gerosgaz. E.ON’s direct 3.5% share in Gazprom has not been<br />
affected by <strong>the</strong> deal.<br />
In June 2009, Gazprom and Stat<strong>oil</strong> signed a three-year MoU on E&P in nor<strong>the</strong>rn Russia and Norway,<br />
replacing a 2005 cooperation agreement signed with Stat<strong>oil</strong> and Norsk Hydro prior to <strong>the</strong>ir merger.<br />
According to a joint statement, <strong>the</strong> new MoU will not only see <strong>the</strong> two companies work toge<strong>the</strong>r in E&P<br />
but also design and development of technologies for <strong>the</strong> harsh Arctic environment. In December 2009, <strong>the</strong><br />
companies deepened ties by signing ano<strong>the</strong>r MoU on joint <strong>gas</strong> trade in <strong>the</strong> US.<br />
Gazprom and Ko<strong>gas</strong> signed a <strong>gas</strong> and chemical deal worth US$102bn in September 2008. As part of <strong>the</strong><br />
agreement, Russia will supply South Korea with 10bcm of <strong>gas</strong> per year over a 30-year period from 2015.<br />
In April 2009 Gazprom exercised its right to purchase a 20% stake in <strong>oil</strong> producer Gazprom Neft from<br />
Eni. Under <strong>the</strong> deal Gazprom will pay US$4.2bn for <strong>the</strong> stake. SeverEnergia, (at <strong>the</strong> time of <strong>the</strong> deal<br />
60:40 owned by Eni and Enel) acquired equity in Gazprom Neft and a 100% stake in Western Siberiafocused<br />
<strong>gas</strong> companies ArcticGaz and Ureng<strong>oil</strong> in April 2007 for RUB151.54bn (US$5.83bn) during a<br />
controversial liquidation auction of Yukos assets. As part of <strong>the</strong> deal, Gazprom secured an option to buy a<br />
majority stake in <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> assets and <strong>the</strong> shares in Gazprom Neft before April 9 2009 for around US$4bn.<br />
At <strong>the</strong> time, <strong>the</strong> deal seemed in Gazprom's favour as it was believed to undervalue Gazprom Neft. The<br />
agreed US$4.2bn purchasing price is equal to <strong>the</strong> price paid by Eni, plus interest, although it is<br />
significantly above 20% of Gazprom Neft’s valuation at <strong>the</strong> time that <strong>the</strong> deal went through (US$2.2bn).<br />
The economics of <strong>the</strong> deal are perplexing, highlighting <strong>the</strong> deal’s marked political undertones.<br />
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Gazprom moved to finalise <strong>the</strong> acquisition of majority stakes in ArcticGaz and Ureng<strong>oil</strong> in September<br />
2009. Gazprom farmed in a 51% into SeverEnergia for US$1.6bn, leaving Eni and Enel with 29.4% and<br />
19.6% respectively. Eni claims <strong>the</strong> consortium’s licences hold an estimated 5bn boe of reserves. It aims to<br />
launch <strong>the</strong> Samburskoye field by June 2011, with output expected to reach 150,000boe/d by 2013.<br />
Gazprom said in November 2008 that it was considering US majors Exxon and Conoco as potential<br />
partners in its Yamal LNG development. One option being looked at is a swap agreement, through which<br />
Conoco could be granted access to <strong>the</strong> Yuzhno-Tambeisky <strong>gas</strong> deposits in Yamal in return for Gazprom's<br />
joining projects in Alaska. Should a deal of this kind go ahead, it would mark a significant step forward in<br />
Gazprom's North American expansion plans.<br />
Projects<br />
Gazprom launched test production from Russia's first coal bed methane (CBM) project in February 2010.<br />
The CBM production facility at <strong>the</strong> Taldinskoye coal field in <strong>the</strong> Kuzbass region of south-western Siberia<br />
is expected to produce up to 5bcm of <strong>gas</strong> per annum once fully online in 2011-2012. The <strong>gas</strong> will supply<br />
<strong>the</strong> industrial belt of western Siberia, lowering <strong>the</strong> share of coal in <strong>the</strong> regional energy mix.<br />
Gazprom is re-evaluating its global expansion strategy in <strong>the</strong> light of falling US <strong>gas</strong> import demand. The<br />
unexpected growth of unconventional <strong>gas</strong> production in North America has torpedoed Gazprom's<br />
ambitious plans for exports to <strong>the</strong> world's largest <strong>gas</strong> consumer, raising questions over <strong>the</strong> future of <strong>the</strong><br />
giant Shtokman development in nor<strong>the</strong>rn European Russia. Following <strong>the</strong> announcement by Gazprom in<br />
February 2010 that first <strong>gas</strong> from <strong>the</strong> Shtokman project has been pushed back by three years to 2016,<br />
Russian news agency Prime-Tass has <strong>report</strong>ed that <strong>the</strong> project’s consortium may be considering sending<br />
all of <strong>the</strong> field's <strong>gas</strong> by pipeline to European markets ra<strong>the</strong>r than exporting half as LNG, as previously<br />
envisioned. The news agency, citing documents from <strong>the</strong> consortium, <strong>report</strong>ed that if <strong>the</strong> company fails to<br />
reach an investment decision on developing LNG at <strong>the</strong> project by <strong>the</strong> December 2011 deadline, <strong>gas</strong><br />
would be transported via pipeline to Europe. The Shtokman Development Company (SDC) comprises<br />
Gazprom (51%), Stat<strong>oil</strong> (24%) and Total (25%). An FID is due in March 2010.<br />
Gazprom in October 2009 announced plans to bring forward <strong>the</strong> start of production at <strong>the</strong> Kirinskiy field<br />
in <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin-III project, potentially to fill <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin-Vladivostok pipeline. The field, which was<br />
initially expected to come onstream in 2014, is now scheduled to start in late-2011 or early 2012. The<br />
Kirinskiy field, discovered in 1992, is estimated to hold 75.4bcm of <strong>gas</strong> and 64mn bbl of condensate. In<br />
June 2009, <strong>the</strong> field was awarded to Gazprom, and exploration drilling started in July.<br />
Gazprom petitioned <strong>the</strong> government in August 2009 to award it four new Yakutian permits –<br />
Srednetuginskoye, Tas-Uriahskoe, Coboloh-Nedzhelinskoe and Verhneviluchanskoe – because projected<br />
output at its Chayandinskoe Block alone would allegedly be insufficient to justify constructing a<br />
connector to <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok pipeline, <strong>the</strong>reby connecting Yakutia to <strong>the</strong> expanding<br />
<strong>gas</strong> pipeline network on <strong>the</strong> Pacific coast. At <strong>the</strong> end of 2007, proven and probable reserves at <strong>the</strong> four<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
new blocks stood at 462.6bcm of <strong>gas</strong> (based on Russia’s A, B and C1 classification). Although Gazprom<br />
did not disclose its output projections for Chayandinskoe, CEO Miller stated that <strong>the</strong> high helium content<br />
of <strong>the</strong> block's <strong>gas</strong> would require <strong>the</strong> construction of an expensive processing plant. Gazprom planned to<br />
bring <strong>the</strong> block onstream in 2016, <strong>the</strong> same year it plans to finish <strong>the</strong> construction of <strong>the</strong> Yakutia-<br />
Khabarovsk interconnector. The 6,000km pipeline has a design capacity of 32-35bcm per annum and<br />
aimed at eventually enabling exports of Yakutia’s <strong>gas</strong> from coastal LNG terminals.<br />
By mid-2009 Gazprom had already been awarded 14 blocks in eastern Russia without a <strong>competitive</strong><br />
tender. According to Vedomosti, Gazprom paid around RUB11bn for <strong>the</strong> blocks, which have combined<br />
reserves of 6.29trn of <strong>gas</strong> and 8bn bbl of condensate. Apart from its petition for four new Yakutia blocks,<br />
Gazprom asked <strong>the</strong> government for tax holidays and/or export duty exemptions for its eastern projects.<br />
The newspaper’s government sources claim Putin overall supported Gazprom's suggestions.<br />
Whe<strong>the</strong>r Gazprom has <strong>the</strong> need or <strong>the</strong> capacity to develop <strong>the</strong> new Yakutia permits is in question. In 2004<br />
Gazprom estimated Chayandinskoe’s reserves at 1.24tcm, over half of Yakutia’s total, and more than<br />
sufficient for <strong>the</strong> planned pipeline to <strong>the</strong> Pacific. Moreover, <strong>the</strong> impact of <strong>the</strong> recession on Gazprom's<br />
finances has already forced <strong>the</strong> company to freeze several high-profile projects in <strong>the</strong> east and north of <strong>the</strong><br />
country. In <strong>the</strong> current circumstances, Gazprom would find it difficult to fund <strong>the</strong> development of<br />
Chayandinskoe, let alone <strong>the</strong> four new Yakutia blocks it has asked for. The concessions are <strong>the</strong>refore<br />
likely to be idled for years to come.<br />
According to Vedomosti’s <strong>report</strong> in July 2009, wholly state-owned Rosneftegaz may replace Gazprom in<br />
<strong>the</strong> ownership talks for <strong>the</strong> giant Kovykta field in <strong>the</strong> eastern Irkutsk region. Nominally, <strong>the</strong> majority<br />
stakeholder in <strong>the</strong> project remains TNK-BP, but as a result of pressure from <strong>the</strong> energy ministry, for <strong>the</strong><br />
past two years <strong>the</strong> Anglo-Russian company has been negotiating <strong>the</strong> sale of its stake to Gazprom. The<br />
MoU on TNK-BP’s sale of its interest in <strong>the</strong> Kovykta operating vehicle, Rusia Petroleum, to Gazprom<br />
was signed in June 2007. In pushing for <strong>the</strong> sale, <strong>the</strong> Kremlin focused on TNK-BP's failure to raise <strong>gas</strong><br />
output at <strong>the</strong> project to <strong>the</strong> 9bcm required by <strong>the</strong> terms of <strong>the</strong> contract. This was based on <strong>the</strong> assumption<br />
that <strong>the</strong> Irkutsk authorities would comply with <strong>the</strong>ir part of <strong>the</strong> contract, building <strong>the</strong> required downstream<br />
infrastructure to channel Kovykta’s <strong>gas</strong> to local end-users. Irkutsk has failed to do this: <strong>the</strong> utilised <strong>gas</strong><br />
output at <strong>the</strong> field is by early 2009 was an annualised 30Mcm.<br />
TNK-BP's inability to raise production led <strong>the</strong> Russian subs<strong>oil</strong> agency, using somewhat perverse logic, to<br />
threaten to withdraw <strong>the</strong> Kovykta licence. It was thought that once Gazprom took <strong>the</strong> reins, <strong>the</strong> company<br />
would be likely to alter contract terms to allow exports outside Irkutsk, with <strong>the</strong> eventual aim of<br />
constructing a <strong>gas</strong> pipeline to China. It now appears, however, that Kovykta has become <strong>the</strong> latest major<br />
<strong>gas</strong> development to be shelved by Gazprom as a result of <strong>the</strong> recession. Officials at <strong>the</strong> company told<br />
Kommersant that given <strong>the</strong> current demand conditions, Gazprom would prefer to concentrate on cheaper<br />
and lower-risk projects, adding that <strong>the</strong>y were 'indifferent' towards Kovykta.<br />
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Previously, Gazprom intended to begin large-scale development at Kovykta by 2017. The planned<br />
transfer of its interests to a holding company implies that even this date could be optimistic. Rosneftegaz,<br />
chaired by <strong>the</strong> Vice-Prime Minister Igor Sechin, has never participated in any active operations,<br />
suggesting <strong>the</strong> project will remain frozen for years to come. Although Gazprom confirmed talks with<br />
Rosneftegaz on <strong>the</strong> Kovykta transfer, Kommersant's sources stated that no final decision had been made.<br />
In BMI's view, even if Gazprom divests Kovykta at this stage, its monopoly on Russia's <strong>gas</strong> export means<br />
it will re-enter <strong>the</strong> project when <strong>the</strong> economics of <strong>the</strong> projects are deemed to be sufficiently favourable.<br />
Gazprom announced in June 2009 that it was indefinitely delaying <strong>the</strong> construction of a <strong>gas</strong> pipeline to<br />
China after <strong>the</strong> two countries failed to come to a <strong>gas</strong> price agreement. Russia and China have been in<br />
negotiations over <strong>gas</strong> exports since 2006, but <strong>the</strong>ir inability to resolve <strong>the</strong> differences resulted in <strong>the</strong><br />
ambitious pipeline project, which was to transport some 30bcm of <strong>gas</strong> from 2011 and up to 85bcm at a<br />
later stage, being frozen. While Russia may previously have held <strong>the</strong> upper hand in negotiations, thanks to<br />
its vast <strong>gas</strong> reserves and China's rapidly rising demand, Beijing is now benefiting from major new <strong>gas</strong><br />
import deals with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Myanmar.<br />
In May 2009, Gazprom boosted <strong>the</strong> annual budget for <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin-Vladivostok pipeline to RUB50bn<br />
(US$1.6bn). The 1,830km pipeline is due onstream in Q311. Gazprom is also considering building an<br />
LNG export terminal and a petrochemical facility near Vladivostok. The pipeline will link two major<br />
projects offshore Sakhalin Island that are currently onstream, Sakhalin-I and -II, to <strong>the</strong> mainland. The<br />
section to Khabarovsk is already operational. Initially, Sakhalin-I's <strong>gas</strong> supplies will be used to feed local<br />
demand. In <strong>the</strong> same month Gazprom announced that it was set to buy 20% of <strong>gas</strong> produced from <strong>the</strong><br />
Exxon-operated Sakhalin-I, according to media <strong>report</strong>s. Tensions between Exxon and <strong>the</strong> Kremlin have<br />
been high owing to a disagreement over marketing rights for <strong>gas</strong> from <strong>the</strong> project, with Exxon wanting to<br />
export <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> directly at (higher) international prices and <strong>the</strong> Kremlin wanting Gazprom to buy all of<br />
Sakhalin's I <strong>gas</strong> at (lower) domestic prices.<br />
Gazprom and its German partner Wintershall have brought onstream <strong>the</strong> Achimgaz project in July 2008.<br />
The US$1bn, 50:50 Achimgaz JV in Yamal is to produce nearly 1bcm of <strong>gas</strong> per annum and 6,000b/d of<br />
condensate. The project’s lifespan is 40 years.<br />
Gazprom announced in September 2008 plans to invest RUB23.5bn in constructing a new <strong>gas</strong> pipeline in<br />
<strong>the</strong> Far East. The pipeline will connect <strong>the</strong> Sobolevskoe deposit with <strong>the</strong> capital of <strong>the</strong> Kamchatka region,<br />
Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, and is due onstream in 2010. While it will be designed to supply <strong>the</strong><br />
domestic market, in <strong>the</strong> longer term it may also be used to connect remote <strong>gas</strong> reserves to <strong>the</strong> country’s<br />
export infrastructure.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Gazprom Neft (formerly Sibneft)<br />
Company Analysis<br />
SWOT Analysis<br />
Already <strong>the</strong> dominant force in <strong>the</strong> Russian energy sector,<br />
Gazprom’s attempts to become a major <strong>oil</strong> player paid off in<br />
2005 with <strong>the</strong> acquisition of Sibneft. Now re-christened<br />
Gazprom Neft, Sibneft was due to have merged with Yukos to<br />
form one of <strong>the</strong> world’s leading <strong>oil</strong> producers. The collapse of<br />
<strong>the</strong> deal during <strong>the</strong> Yukos crisis, however, made an eventual<br />
link with ano<strong>the</strong>r player inevitable. Gazprom’s move denied<br />
Western companies <strong>the</strong> chance to acquire a well managed,<br />
profitable business – but has given <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> giant a major<br />
opportunity to develop <strong>oil</strong> expertise.<br />
Strengths: Significant role in Russian <strong>oil</strong> supply<br />
Cost-effective producing assets<br />
Substantial domestic refining business<br />
Financial Statistics<br />
Revenues:<br />
• US$24.17bn (2009)<br />
• US$33.08bn (2008)<br />
• US$21.77bn (2007)<br />
• US$20.18bn (2006)<br />
Net income:<br />
• US$2.77bn (2009)<br />
• US$4.66bn (2008)<br />
• US$4.14bn (2007)<br />
• US$3.66bn (2006)<br />
Operating Statistics<br />
Net <strong>oil</strong> production (inc. equity<br />
entitlement)<br />
• 957,000b/d (2009)<br />
• 932,000b/d (2008)<br />
• 868,700b/d (2007)<br />
• 657,000b/d (2006)<br />
Refining throughput<br />
• 670,700b/d (2009)<br />
Strong retail portfolio<br />
State support<br />
Weaknesses:<br />
Lack of foreign partners<br />
Rising investment requirement<br />
Some cost and efficiency disadvantages<br />
Opportunities:<br />
International expansion<br />
Focus on under-explored Russian regions<br />
Cost cutting/asset upgrading potential<br />
Threats:<br />
Sustainability of Russian <strong>oil</strong> growth<br />
Oversupply in CEE refining capacity<br />
Competition with Rosneft<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Market Position<br />
Gazprom Neft was founded as Sibneft in 1995 and took on a broad portfolio of former state assets.<br />
Following two failed merger attempts with Yukos in September 2005, Gazprom acquired 72% in Sibneft,<br />
buying out businessman Roman Abramovich’s stake in a US$13bn deal, raising its stake to 95.7% after<br />
exercising its buy-out right in April 2009. The company was <strong>the</strong>n renamed Gazprom Neft. It is now <strong>the</strong><br />
fifth largest crude producer in Russia and has one of <strong>the</strong> best growth rates, owing to its strong position in<br />
high-potential regions. Gazprom Neft’s upstream assets are chiefly located in <strong>the</strong> Northwest and Western<br />
Siberia (Yamal-Nenets, Khanty-Mansiysk, Omsk, Tomsk, Tiumen), as well as Irkutsk and Chukotka<br />
fur<strong>the</strong>r east. The main production arm is Noyabrskneftegaz, which operates about 30 fields in <strong>the</strong><br />
Yamal-Nenets and Khanty-Mansiysk autonomous regions and holds around 60% of <strong>the</strong> company’s<br />
reserves.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>r major producing assets include stakes in Slavneft and Tomskneft, jointly owned with TNK-BP and<br />
Rosneft respectively. As of Q309 Gazrpom Neft also has managerial control of Sibir Energy, which it<br />
won after significant effort. Sibir's upstream operations are focused on Khanty-Mansiysk where it holds<br />
<strong>the</strong> Salym fields, operated on a 50:50 basis with Shell, and <strong>the</strong> Yuzhnoe and Orekhovskoe fields, operated<br />
by subsidiary Magma Oil (95%). In 2009, Sibir’s net output averaged around 80,000b/d.<br />
Gazprom Neft’s refining and market assets include <strong>the</strong> 385,000b/d Omsk Refinery and a 60% vote in <strong>the</strong><br />
240,000b/d Moscow Oil Refinery, as well as a growing network of service stations primarily located in<br />
Western Siberia, although Sibir’s acquisition has given it a strong position in Moscow. Through its<br />
wholly owned unit Moscow Oil and Gas Company (MOGC), Sibir owns 100% of 69 MKT-branded<br />
service stations, 51% of Mosnefteproduct's 64 stations and storage terminals and 25% of BP's Moscow<br />
retail network.<br />
Strategy<br />
The company is involved in <strong>the</strong> planned 1mn b/d Bur<strong>gas</strong>-Alexandroupolis pipeline, which will transport<br />
Russian crude to Europe and is preliminarily scheduled for completion in 2010. Gazprom Neft also works<br />
on <strong>the</strong> Nor<strong>the</strong>rn Zadegan project in Iran.<br />
Gazprom Neft plans to produce 1.8mn b/d by 2020 through developing Arctic fields and investing<br />
US$70bn. Gazprom Neft expects to receive <strong>the</strong> licence to develop <strong>the</strong> Arctic Prirazlomnoye deposit by<br />
2010 and plans to start work at <strong>the</strong> giant offshore field five years later. Downstream, <strong>the</strong> company plans<br />
to raise refining capacity until it accounts for two-thirds of crude production. It will achieve this goal by<br />
purchasing refineries at home and abroad, and is particularly interested in buying more European assets<br />
after in February 2009 acquiring 51% of Serbia’s Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS).<br />
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Latest Developments<br />
Gazprom Neft was awarded rights to develop <strong>the</strong> Novoportovskoye and Orenburgskoye East <strong>oil</strong> fields<br />
from parent Gazprom in December 2009. Novoportovskoye and Orenburgskoye East fields hold around<br />
1.7bn and 700mn bbl of <strong>oil</strong> reserves respectively.<br />
In December 2009, Gazprom Neft signed a deal to acquire Sweden-based Malka Oil’s subsidiary STS-<br />
Service for US$118mn. STS has three licences in <strong>the</strong> Tomsk region with combined <strong>oil</strong> and condensate<br />
reserves of 189mn bbl (C1+C2). The deal has yet to be approved by Malka’s shareholders.<br />
Gazprom Neft gained majority ownership of mid-sized domestic producer Sibir Energy in June 2009 after<br />
acquiring 50% of investment company Bennfield. Having bought <strong>the</strong> assets of Bennfield's joint owner<br />
Igor Kesaev, Gazprom Neft acquired indirect ownership of 23.35% of Sibir's shares, bringing its total<br />
stake in <strong>the</strong> AIM-listed firm to at least 54.7% (following a series of opaque deals with various previous<br />
shareholders, 2.3% of Sibir’s shares are unaccounted for). Gazprom Neft consolidated Sibir into its<br />
financial accounts and manages <strong>the</strong> company in partnership with <strong>the</strong> Moscow city council (19.3%). In late<br />
September 2009, Gazprom Neft petitioned <strong>the</strong> Russian competition authorities to acquire 100% of Sibir,<br />
adding that it expects an answer soon. Whe<strong>the</strong>r it was able to come to an agreement with <strong>the</strong> remaining<br />
shareholders, particularly <strong>the</strong> Moscow council, which in mid-2009 indicated its intention to raise its Sibir<br />
stake, remains unclear.<br />
Since having trumped a rival bid from TNK-BP in late April 2009, Gazprom Neft has bought out Sibir’s<br />
floating shares and some of its major investors, spending a combined US$1.67bn on <strong>the</strong> deals. The<br />
ownership of <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r 50% of Bennfield (and <strong>the</strong>refore 23.3% of Sibir) remains disputed by its owners.<br />
The outstanding Bennfield shares are currently held as collateral by state-owned Sberbank, pending<br />
payment of its outstanding debts.<br />
Gazprom Neft’s deputy director, Boris Zilbermints, said in December 2008 that <strong>the</strong> company may be<br />
looking for foreign partners to develop <strong>the</strong> Prirazlomnoye <strong>oil</strong> field in <strong>the</strong> Barents Sea. Gazprom’s<br />
subsidiary Sevmorneftegaz previously reneged on its intentions to bring in foreign participants and stated<br />
plans to develop <strong>the</strong> field on its own. Gazprom is currently constructing an offshore production platform<br />
at Prirazlomnoye, which is expected to be completed by late-2010 or early-2011. Gazprom plans to hand<br />
over <strong>the</strong> field, along with a number of o<strong>the</strong>r licences, to Gazprom Neft in 2009/10. Prirazlomnoye, which<br />
holds estimated <strong>oil</strong> reserves of 600mn bbl, is expected to produce 120,500b/d.<br />
In December 2008, CEO Alexander Dyukov has also made an offer to Chevron to develop more fields in<br />
western Siberia. Gazprom Neft and Chevron formed a JV in 2007, Nor<strong>the</strong>rn Taiga Neftegaz, to explore<br />
for and develop assets in <strong>the</strong> Yamal-Nenets region.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Rosneft<br />
Company Analysis<br />
Rosneft’s Yukos acquisitions turned <strong>the</strong> company into Russia’s largest <strong>oil</strong><br />
producer, surpassing private rival Luk<strong>oil</strong>, and extending state control to some<br />
40% of Russian production. In addition, <strong>the</strong> company has also become<br />
Russia’s largest refiner. Rosneft is largely state-owned, although a 2006 IPO<br />
has introduced an element of privatisation that <strong>the</strong> recession-hit Russian<br />
government in late-2009 pledged to deepen. Gazprom and Rosneft in<br />
November 2006 agreed a strategic cooperation deal that should see <strong>the</strong>m<br />
share major development opportunities, ra<strong>the</strong>r than fighting over <strong>the</strong>m.<br />
SWOT Analysis<br />
Strengths: Largest domestic <strong>oil</strong> producer<br />
Strong relationship with government<br />
Large fuels retail network<br />
Portfolio of CEE downstream interests<br />
Weaknesses: Complex corporate structure<br />
Inherited high cost base and inefficiency<br />
Opportunities: Growth in Russian <strong>oil</strong> production<br />
Rise in CEE regional <strong>oil</strong> consumption<br />
Financial Statistics<br />
Revenues:<br />
• US$46.83 (2009)<br />
• US$68.99bn (2008)<br />
• US$49.22bn (2007)<br />
• US$33.1bn (2006)<br />
Net income:<br />
• US$6.51(2009)<br />
• US$11.1bn (2008)<br />
• US$6.5bn (2007)<br />
• US$3.5bn (2006)<br />
Operating Statistics<br />
Oil production:<br />
• 2.18mn b/d (2009)<br />
• 2.13mn b/d (2008)<br />
• 2.0mn b/d (2007)<br />
• 1.5mn b/d (2006)<br />
Gas production:<br />
• 12.7bcm (2009)<br />
• 12.4bcm (2008)<br />
• 15.7bcm (2007)<br />
• 13.6bcm (2006)<br />
Proven reserves (PRMS):<br />
• 22.9bn boe (2009)<br />
• 22.3bn boe (2008)<br />
• 21.7bn boe (2007)<br />
• 11.8bn boe (2006)<br />
Expansion into Chinese downstream market<br />
Long-term <strong>gas</strong> export opportunities<br />
Threats:<br />
Sustainability of Russian <strong>oil</strong> growth<br />
Oversupply in CEE refining capacity<br />
Changes in national energy policy<br />
Market Position<br />
Rosneft’s 19 E&P subsidies cover most of <strong>the</strong> Russian regions, but around 80% of its production comes<br />
from Western Siberia (Yuganskneftegaz and Purneftegaz) and <strong>the</strong> Volga region (Samaraneftegaz).<br />
Rosneft owns and operates seven major refineries in Russia: <strong>the</strong> Tuapse refinery on <strong>the</strong> Black Sea coast;<br />
<strong>the</strong> Komsomolsk refinery in <strong>the</strong> Russian Far; <strong>the</strong> Kuibyshev, Novokuibyshevsk, and Syzran refineries in<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
<strong>the</strong> Volga-Urals region; and <strong>the</strong> Achinsk and Angarsk refineries in East Siberia. The company is also<br />
planning to construct a new 240,000b/d facility in Primorsk in Leningrad Region with Surgutneftegaz.<br />
Rosneft also runs export terminals in Arkhangelsk, Tuapse, Nakhodka and De-Kastri, and operates a retail<br />
network of around 600 service stations.<br />
Strategy<br />
Over <strong>the</strong> next two decades, Rosneft aims to become Russia’s leading energy company both in output and<br />
financial terms. To achieve this it is pursuing several policies. The company plans to increase crude<br />
production by exploiting existing <strong>oil</strong> reserves, with <strong>the</strong> goal of reaching 2.8mn b/d by 2015 and 3.4mn b/d<br />
by 2020. Rosneft also aims to exploit upside potential in <strong>gas</strong>. Rosneft believes itself to be capable of<br />
producing 40bcm by 2012, but <strong>the</strong> volumes will depend on <strong>gas</strong> sales and access to UGSS capacity,<br />
regarding which Rosneft is currently negotiating with Gazprom. The company is also developing value<br />
chains linking upstream assets directly to export markets and refining facilities. Ownership or a<br />
significant equity share in marketing subsidiaries will allow Rosneft to maximise netbacks.<br />
Under <strong>the</strong> 2010 business plan, Rosneft is planning capex of RUB217bn, equivalent to US$7.23bn using<br />
<strong>the</strong> RUB30/US$ exchange rate applied by Rosneft. The figure is <strong>the</strong> same as <strong>the</strong> investment originally<br />
envisioned for 2009. In February 2009, however, capex for that year was subsequently boosted to<br />
RUB227.85bn. Of <strong>the</strong> 2010 capex target, US$2bn will go on <strong>the</strong> refining segment, a 150% rise y-o-y. In<br />
June 2007, Rosneft <strong>the</strong>n CEO Sergei Bogdanchikov announced plans to expand <strong>the</strong> company's refining<br />
capacity ninefold by 2015. Rosneft is planning to boost output in 2010 by 4.5% to 2.36mn b/d on <strong>the</strong> back<br />
of new start-ups in East Siberia.<br />
In June 2007, Bogdanchikov said <strong>the</strong> company plans to issue bonds to reduce debt and expand refining<br />
capacity ninefold. He fur<strong>the</strong>r said that <strong>the</strong> company may build new <strong>oil</strong> refineries abroad, potentially in<br />
China and in o<strong>the</strong>r East Asian countries, to meet its refining capacity target by 2015.<br />
Latest Developments<br />
A company press statement on September 6 2010 said First Vice-President Khudainatov has been<br />
appointed President of Rosneft with immediate effect. Khudainatov's previous roles have included a spell<br />
at <strong>the</strong> Executive Office of <strong>the</strong> Russian president, as well as <strong>the</strong> position of general director of<br />
Severneftegaz. He replaced Bogdanchikov, who had been in charge since 1998. According to an FT<br />
<strong>report</strong> on September 4, Bogdanchikov is believed to have been at odds with company chairman and<br />
Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin. An unnamed FT source said that Khudainatov was less likely to<br />
adopt positions that conflicted with those of Sechin. Khudainatov's managerial background at<br />
Severneftegaz, a Gazprom subsidiary, has prompted speculation that Rosneft is looking to increase its<br />
exposure to Russia's <strong>gas</strong> industry.<br />
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Rosneft has made a significant discovery in <strong>the</strong> Irkutsk region in Eastern Siberia, according to a statement<br />
by <strong>the</strong> Russian energy ministry in January 2009. The discovery holds 1.2bn bbl of <strong>oil</strong> (C1+C2). The<br />
discovery was made at <strong>the</strong> Sevastyanovo field in <strong>the</strong> Mogdynskiy Block, which Rosneft acquired in 2006<br />
for RUB1.32bn (US$44mn). No fur<strong>the</strong>r details have been released, and Rosneft has not yet commented<br />
on <strong>the</strong> discovery.<br />
Sinopec and Rosneft are considering building a 400,000b/d refinery in <strong>the</strong> Far Eastern Primorsky Krai<br />
region, <strong>the</strong> Chinese company’s chairman, Su Shulin, said in October 2009.<br />
Rosneft plans to begin exploration offshore <strong>the</strong> disputed region of Abkhazia in 2010 after a five-year<br />
E&P deal with <strong>the</strong> regional authorities was signed in May 2009. Under <strong>the</strong> agreement, two companies<br />
will be set up, one to manage upstream offshore operations and ano<strong>the</strong>r to focus on <strong>the</strong> downstream,<br />
where Rosneft plans to build service stations and to supply <strong>gas</strong>oline, diesel and lubricants. The latter<br />
company will be a JV with <strong>the</strong> Abkhazia state company Abkhaztop.<br />
In April 2009, <strong>the</strong> Moscow Arbitration Court ruled in favour of a claim lodged by Rosneft’s<br />
Samaraneftegaz subsidiary against independent rival Russneft over <strong>the</strong> latter's purchase of a former<br />
Yukos asset. Russneft was ordered to pay Rosneft RUB5bn (US$148mn) or cede its 50% stake in <strong>the</strong><br />
Zapadno-Malobalykskoye (ZMB) production unit. According to <strong>the</strong> claimant, under <strong>the</strong> Yukos<br />
bankruptcy ruling, ZMB owed it RUB5bn in debt arrears. The court, however, stopped short of satisfying<br />
Samaraneftegaz’s petition in full and annulling Russneft’s ZMB purchase, thus transferring its stake to<br />
Rosneft. The fact that Samaraneftegaz initiated <strong>the</strong> legal proceedings nearly three years after Yukos's<br />
liquidation suggests that control over ZMB ra<strong>the</strong>r than <strong>the</strong> fine is <strong>the</strong> main motivation for <strong>the</strong> claim.<br />
Rosneft and its partner Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) signed a preliminary deal for<br />
Kamchatka exploration in December 2008. The two companies had been exploring <strong>the</strong> area until <strong>the</strong><br />
federal sub-s<strong>oil</strong> agency Rosnedra decided not to grant a new licence when <strong>the</strong> original licence expired in<br />
August 2008. While Rosnedra failed to give an official reason for not extending <strong>the</strong> licence, it is believed<br />
that <strong>the</strong> decision was based on delays in <strong>the</strong> exploration schedule. It remains unclear whe<strong>the</strong>r Rosnedra<br />
has decided to grant a new licence to <strong>the</strong> partners or whe<strong>the</strong>r Rosneft and KNOC have come to <strong>the</strong><br />
agreement before applying for a new licence. Under <strong>the</strong> original contract, Rosneft held 60% in <strong>the</strong> West<br />
Kamchatka Holding, whose wholly owned subsidiary Kamchatneftegaz was <strong>the</strong> operator of <strong>the</strong> project.<br />
A South Korean consortium comprising KNOC, GS Caltex, SK Energy, Daewoo International,<br />
Kumho Petrochemical and Hyundai held <strong>the</strong> remaining 40%.<br />
When considering Kamchatka’s hydrocarbon reserves, Rosneft's and KNOC’s keenness to explore and<br />
develop <strong>the</strong> area is obvious. According to Rosneft's website, West Kamchatka contains 'prospective<br />
resources' of some 13.3bn bbl of <strong>oil</strong> and 2tcm of <strong>gas</strong>. This makes it comparable in scale with Sakhalin and<br />
highly attractive to Gazprom, which <strong>report</strong>edly also applied for <strong>the</strong> Kamchatka licence in October 2008.<br />
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A partial privatisation of Rosneft was completed in July 2006, with a US$10.6bn listing of <strong>the</strong> shares in<br />
London and Moscow.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong><br />
Company Analysis<br />
SWOT Analysis<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong> is <strong>the</strong> leading private Russian <strong>oil</strong> company and<br />
should remain so – particularly now that ConocoPhillips<br />
is on board as a strategic investor and upstream partner.<br />
Domestic volume growth is beginning to slow, but new<br />
projects, such as <strong>the</strong> Yuzhnoye Khylchuyu field in <strong>the</strong><br />
Timan-Pechora region and fields in Uzbekistan and<br />
Iraq, provide growth potential. The downstream<br />
portfolio is also benefiting from international<br />
investment, putting Luk<strong>oil</strong> into a position of secure<br />
medium- and long-term revenue and earnings<br />
expansion.<br />
Strengths: Leading role in Russian <strong>oil</strong> supply<br />
Rising share of Caspian production<br />
Substantial domestic downstream business<br />
Strong portfolio of CEE downstream interests<br />
Conoco strategic partnership<br />
Weaknesses: Slower domestic growth than o<strong>the</strong>r producers<br />
Rising investment requirement<br />
Cost and efficiency disadvantages<br />
Opportunities: Growth in Russia/Caspian <strong>oil</strong> production<br />
Financial Statistics<br />
Revenues<br />
• US$81.5bn (2009)<br />
• US$107.7bn (2008)<br />
• US$82.2bn (2007)<br />
• US$68.1bn (2006)<br />
• US$56.2nn (2005)<br />
Net income<br />
• US$7.0bn (2009)<br />
• US$9.1bn (2008)<br />
• US$9.5bn (2007)<br />
• US$7.5bn (2006)<br />
• US$6.4bn (2005)<br />
Operating Statistics<br />
Net domestic <strong>oil</strong> production (inc.<br />
equity shares):<br />
• 1.84mn b/d (2009)<br />
• 1.93mn b/d (2008)<br />
• 1.95mn b/d (2007)<br />
Net domestic sale <strong>gas</strong> production:<br />
• 6.3bcm (2009)<br />
• 8.7bcm (2008)<br />
• 8.2bcm (2007)<br />
Refining throughput (group total):<br />
• 893,000,000b/d (2009)<br />
• 894,000b/d (2008)<br />
• 976,000b/d (2007)<br />
Proven <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> reserves:<br />
• 17.5boe (2009)<br />
• 19.3bn boe (2008)<br />
Rise in CEE regional <strong>oil</strong> consumption<br />
Cost cutting/asset upgrading potential<br />
Massive Iraq development<br />
Threats:<br />
Sustainability of Russian <strong>oil</strong> growth<br />
Oversupply in CEE refining capacity<br />
Changes in national energy policy<br />
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Market Position<br />
Russia’s largest private crude producer, Luk<strong>oil</strong>, had been in competition for <strong>the</strong> top spot with Yukos prior<br />
to <strong>the</strong> latter’s liquidation. Luk<strong>oil</strong> now accounts for 18% of Russian <strong>oil</strong> production and 18.3% of refining<br />
throughput, while boasting 1.3% of world <strong>oil</strong> reserves and 2.1% of global production. The bulk of <strong>the</strong><br />
company’s E&P assets are located in West Siberia, with smaller reserves in European Russia, Nenets<br />
(Timan-Pechora) and <strong>the</strong> North Caspian regions. Luk<strong>oil</strong> holds stakes in E&P projects in Azerbaijan,<br />
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Colombia as well a contract for <strong>the</strong> second phase of <strong>the</strong><br />
giant West Qurna <strong>oil</strong> field in Iraq.<br />
ConocoPhillips bid for a minority Luk<strong>oil</strong> stake in 2004, subsequently raising its interest in <strong>the</strong> company<br />
to 20% at a combined cost of US$7.5bn. Luk<strong>oil</strong> and Conoco also created <strong>the</strong> 70:30 Naryanmarneftegaz<br />
JV to develop <strong>the</strong> Yuzhno-Khylchuyu field in <strong>the</strong> nor<strong>the</strong>rn Nenets region. Production began in mid-2008,<br />
with output expected to peak at 150,000boe/d. Luk<strong>oil</strong>’s relationship with Conoco appeared to be<br />
weakening in March 2010 when <strong>the</strong> US company informed Luk<strong>oil</strong> of its plans to sell half its 20% stake in<br />
<strong>the</strong> Russian producer as part of a US$10bn divestment programme.<br />
Strategy<br />
Internationally, <strong>the</strong> company has refining assets in <strong>the</strong> Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands, Italy, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria,<br />
and retail networks in <strong>the</strong> US and most Eastern European and CIS states. International operations account<br />
for over 30% of Luk<strong>oil</strong>’s total refining capacity, 60% of its retail network and 4% of <strong>the</strong> resource base.<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong> has curtailed its growth ambitions for <strong>the</strong> 2010s under its new 2010-2019 strategic development<br />
plan that was outlined in December 2009. The company will reduce annual capex to US$0.9bn from<br />
US$1.2bn envisioned under <strong>the</strong> previous 10-year plan (2007-2016), until it better understands <strong>the</strong><br />
impending 'revolutionary changes' in <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> industry, said Vice-President Leonid Fedun.<br />
The biggest change in <strong>the</strong> 2010-2019 plan is a major reduction in upstream spending and output targets.<br />
Capex on E&P will total US$60bn, 20% less than <strong>the</strong> target in <strong>the</strong> previous 10-year plan (2007-2016).<br />
Consequently, Luk<strong>oil</strong> now expects <strong>oil</strong> production to reach only 2.7mn b/d by <strong>the</strong> end of <strong>the</strong> coming<br />
decade, significantly below <strong>the</strong> 4mn b/d previously envisioned for end-2016. Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, <strong>the</strong> company<br />
is increasingly pessimistic over output prospects from its maturing fields. The new plan raises <strong>the</strong><br />
upstream capex earmarked for new generation projects from 39% to 57%, while investment in West<br />
Siberia and Volga/Urals will fall by 30% in comparison with <strong>the</strong> old scenario.<br />
The <strong>gas</strong> segment has also lost its shine for Luk<strong>oil</strong>. Fedun believes <strong>the</strong> impending 'acute glut' of global <strong>gas</strong><br />
supply will exert strong downward pressure on prices and will hurt <strong>the</strong> profitability of its non-associated<br />
projects. Consequently, Luk<strong>oil</strong> will postpone <strong>gas</strong> developments in <strong>the</strong> Caspian and Yamal, previously<br />
seen as some of its main growth regions. The new plan sees <strong>the</strong> share of <strong>gas</strong> in total production rising<br />
from 10% in 2009 to 26% by 2019, against 33% previously envisioned for 2016.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
In <strong>the</strong> downstream segment, Luk<strong>oil</strong> has also significantly reduced its planned expansion. The company<br />
hopes to achieve 1.45mn b/d of refining throughput by 2019, much less than <strong>the</strong> 2mn b/d envisioned<br />
under <strong>the</strong> previous plan. Capex on refining, power generation and petrochemical divisions will amount to<br />
US$25bn, with 78% of that figure earmarked for domestic projects. The investment will be channelled<br />
into upgrades and efficiency measures ra<strong>the</strong>r than capacity expansion.<br />
The new plan suggests Luk<strong>oil</strong> may curb its foreign downstream asset buying spree, which saw <strong>the</strong><br />
company acquire more than US$4bn of refining and fuel retailing assets in 2007-2009, culminating in <strong>the</strong><br />
payment of US$725mn for a 45% stake in a Dutch refinery from Total in September 2009. Rumours have<br />
been circulating that Luk<strong>oil</strong> may be interested in more European refining assets that <strong>the</strong> French major is<br />
considering selling, but <strong>the</strong> new downstream budget certainly leaves little scope for large purchases. The<br />
company's growth strategy for retail networks in Turkey and Eastern Europe may also be affected.<br />
Having reduced its capex, Luk<strong>oil</strong> will use <strong>the</strong> freed-up funds to concentrate on improving profitability<br />
and cash flow and raising dividends. The new emphasis on caution and shareholder returns mirrors that of<br />
its partner Conoco and goes against <strong>the</strong> generally resurgent mood of <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> industry.<br />
Latest Developments<br />
US major Conoco decided to sell its entire 20% stake in Luk<strong>oil</strong> in mid-2010. The company sold to sell<br />
7.6% back to <strong>the</strong> company for US$3.4bn in Q310, and <strong>the</strong> remaining 60% will be sold on <strong>the</strong> open market<br />
by end-2011.<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong> <strong>report</strong>ed revenues of US$23.9bn and net income of US$2.05bn in Q110. Revenues increased from<br />
US$14.75bn in Q109, while profits were up 126.9% on <strong>the</strong> previous year.<br />
In April 2010 Luk<strong>oil</strong> brought <strong>the</strong> first <strong>oil</strong> field in <strong>the</strong> Russian sector of <strong>the</strong> Caspian Sea onstream with <strong>the</strong><br />
launch of production from <strong>the</strong> Yuriy Korchagin deposit. Korchagin is one of Luk<strong>oil</strong>'s six large discoveries<br />
in <strong>the</strong> Caspian, touted as one of Russia's new <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> frontiers.<br />
In December 2009, Luk<strong>oil</strong> gained full control of <strong>the</strong> LukArco vehicle after buying out its partner BP for<br />
US$1.6bn. The deal gives Luk<strong>oil</strong> a 12.5% stake in <strong>the</strong> Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a trunkline<br />
running from western Kazakhstan to Russian ports, and a 5% stake in <strong>the</strong> giant Tengiz field in<br />
Kazakhstan.<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong> was planning to launch <strong>the</strong> Yuri Korchagin field in Russia’s sector of <strong>the</strong> Caspian Sea in early<br />
2010. The field holds 570mn boe of possible (P3) reserves and is expected to produce 50,000b/d of <strong>oil</strong><br />
and 1bcm of <strong>gas</strong> at its peak. Yuri Korchagin is one of <strong>the</strong> six large fields discovered by Luk<strong>oil</strong> in <strong>the</strong><br />
Russian sector of <strong>the</strong> Caspian Sea since entering <strong>the</strong> area in 1995. To date, Luk<strong>oil</strong> boasts 100%<br />
exploratory drilling success in <strong>the</strong> Caspian, making it one of <strong>the</strong> high-growth potential regions for <strong>the</strong><br />
company. In September 2009 Luk<strong>oil</strong> provided an update for its North Caspian project, announcing plans<br />
to produce 200,000b/d of <strong>oil</strong> and 6bcm of <strong>gas</strong> per annum by 2016. This is significantly below Luk<strong>oil</strong>’s<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
previous announcement made in April 2009, which put <strong>the</strong> North Caspian target at 260,000b/d and 14bcm<br />
by 2016. The April 2009 announcement called for RUB390bn (US$16.6bn) of Caspian investment.<br />
After Korchagin, <strong>the</strong> second field, <strong>the</strong> larger Filanov (Filanovskoe), is due onstream in 2014. Gas output<br />
from Korchagin and Filanov will be pumped to <strong>the</strong> Russian region of Kalmykiya and <strong>the</strong>n onwards to<br />
Gazprom’s trunklines. Development of <strong>the</strong> mostly <strong>gas</strong>-bearing Khvalynskoe deposit on <strong>the</strong> Kazakh<br />
maritime border is carried out under a PSA held by <strong>the</strong> Caspian Oil and Gas Company consortium<br />
comprising Luk<strong>oil</strong> (50%), state-run KazMunaiGaz (KMG, 25%), and French companies Total (17%)<br />
and GDF Suez (8%). Khvalynskoe is expected to peak at 8bcm and is preliminarily due onstream in 2016.<br />
The North Caspian fields are located relatively close to Luk<strong>oil</strong>’s refineries including plants at Odessa<br />
(Ukraine), Bour<strong>gas</strong> (Bulgaria) and Ploieşti (Romania).<br />
In June 2009, a state-run Russian financial institution acquired a stake in Luk<strong>oil</strong>. The companies did not<br />
comment on <strong>the</strong> size of <strong>the</strong> stake and <strong>the</strong> terms of <strong>the</strong> deal, but unnamed sources have told Reuters that<br />
<strong>the</strong> stake is less than 5%.<br />
Luk<strong>oil</strong> and Transneft have allegedly approached Polish refiner PKN Orlen over buying a stake in<br />
Lithuania's Mažeikių refinery, Polish media <strong>report</strong>ed in April 2009. PKN’s trumping of Russian bids for a<br />
controlling stake in Mažeikių in 2006 coincided with Transneft’s decision to shut down <strong>the</strong> refinery's<br />
feedstock pipeline owing to apparent technical problems.<br />
One of <strong>the</strong> company's most high-profile foreign deals, <strong>the</strong> purchase of a 10% stake in Spanish-Argentine<br />
company Repsol YPF, fell through in late 2008 after <strong>the</strong> Spanish government appeared to implicitly<br />
blocked <strong>the</strong> deal as a result of popular opposition.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
TNK-BP<br />
Company Analysis<br />
SWOT Analysis<br />
Following an acrimonious battle for control over TNK-<br />
BP during H108, BP and its Russian partners in<br />
September 2008 restructured <strong>the</strong> board and top<br />
management, signalling a new chapter in <strong>the</strong> company’s<br />
history. TNK-BP has <strong>the</strong> potential to challenge Russian<br />
<strong>oil</strong> industry leaders over <strong>the</strong> medium term. While it will<br />
take years to become a leading Russian <strong>oil</strong> company, it<br />
should rapidly become <strong>the</strong> most profitable given BP’s<br />
commitment. Long-term <strong>gas</strong> interests capable of<br />
supplying <strong>the</strong> Asian markets provide ano<strong>the</strong>r dimension.<br />
All of <strong>the</strong>se opportunities depend, however, on <strong>the</strong><br />
company staying in <strong>the</strong> Kremlin’s good books.<br />
Strengths: Major <strong>oil</strong> producer<br />
Significant share of refining capacity<br />
Large fuels retail network<br />
Portfolio of CEE downstream interests<br />
Benefits of BP management/technology<br />
Weaknesses: Complex corporate structure<br />
Inherited high cost base and inefficiencies<br />
Financial Statistics<br />
Revenues:<br />
• US$34.75bn (2009)<br />
• US$51.9nn (2008)<br />
• US$38.6bn (2007)<br />
• US$35.5bn (2006)<br />
• US$30.0bn (2005)<br />
Net income:<br />
• US$4.97bn (2009)<br />
• US$5.3bn (2008)<br />
• US$5.3bn (2007)<br />
• US$6.6bn (2006)<br />
• US$4.7bn (2005)<br />
Operating Statistics<br />
Oil production (inc. JVs):<br />
• 1.68mn b/d (2009)<br />
• 1.45mn b/d (2008)<br />
• 1.42mn b/d (2007)<br />
Gas production:<br />
• 12bcm (2009)<br />
• 11.6bcm (2008)<br />
• 9.4bcm (2007)<br />
Refining throughput (Russia):<br />
• 574,000b/d (2009)<br />
• 675,000b/d (2008)<br />
• 778,000b/d (2007)<br />
Proven <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> reserves (PRMS)<br />
• 11.67bn boe (2009)<br />
• 8.1bn boe (2008)<br />
• 8.3bn boe (2007)<br />
Opportunities:<br />
Growth in Russian <strong>oil</strong> production<br />
Rise in CEE regional <strong>oil</strong> consumption<br />
Cost cutting/asset upgrading potential<br />
Long-term <strong>gas</strong> export opportunities<br />
Threats:<br />
Sustainability of Russian <strong>oil</strong> growth<br />
Oversupply in CEE refining capacity<br />
Changes in national energy policy<br />
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Market Position<br />
In February 2003, UK-based <strong>oil</strong> major BP and Russian financial companies Alfa Group and Access-<br />
Renova (AAR), <strong>the</strong> owners of TNK, agreed to a US$6.35bn merger of <strong>the</strong>ir Russian businesses. At <strong>the</strong><br />
time <strong>the</strong> deal represented <strong>the</strong> single largest Western investment in post-Soviet Russia. BP later agreed to<br />
pay a fur<strong>the</strong>r US$1.4bn to include AAR’s 50% interest in Slavneft in <strong>the</strong> new JV. TNK-BP is governed<br />
by a 10-member board, with representatives nominated equally by BP and AAR and decisions taken<br />
unanimously. AAR nominates <strong>the</strong> chairman and BP <strong>the</strong> CEO.<br />
TNK-BP’s upstream assets are chiefly located in <strong>the</strong> West Siberia and Volga-Urals. Its downstream assets<br />
include interests in five refineries, with an installed capacity of 50mn tpa and a retail network of 1,600<br />
sites in Russia and Ukraine. The main <strong>gas</strong> producer is <strong>the</strong> Rospan wholly owned subsidiary, which<br />
produced 6.5bcm in <strong>the</strong> Nizhnevartovsk region in 2008.<br />
TNK-BP has four refineries in Russia and one in Ukraine, with a total nameplate capacity of 560,000b/d.<br />
Of <strong>the</strong>se, <strong>the</strong> Lisichansk plant in Ukraine can produce Euro-4 level diesel and <strong>the</strong> Saratov refinery in<br />
sou<strong>the</strong>rn Russia can produce Euro-3 and Euro-4 <strong>gas</strong>oline, while <strong>the</strong> Ryazan refinery, in Central Russia,<br />
has had <strong>the</strong> technology to produce Euro-5 diesel since 2008. The two smaller refineries are <strong>the</strong><br />
Krasnoleninsk and Nizhnevartovsk plants in West Siberia.<br />
In September 2008, BP and AAR signed an MoU setting out a resolution to <strong>the</strong>ir six-month dispute over<br />
control of TNK-BP, signalling a breakthrough in a complex and acrimonious power struggle.<br />
None<strong>the</strong>less, many thorny issues remain, and we expect fur<strong>the</strong>r ructions, albeit of a less dramatic nature,<br />
ahead. The agreement has three main components. First, it provides for a restructuring of <strong>the</strong> company’s<br />
board, including <strong>the</strong> introduction of three new directors unconnected to ei<strong>the</strong>r side. The second proviso<br />
was <strong>the</strong> replacement of CEO Robert Dudley with an ‘independent’ candidate Maxim Barsky, who was<br />
approved by <strong>the</strong> board. Third, it allows <strong>the</strong> sale of up to 20% of a subsidiary of TNK-BP through an IPO<br />
on <strong>the</strong> international markets.<br />
Strategy<br />
Following Dudley’s resignation in December 2008, BP and AAR <strong>report</strong>edly pitted <strong>the</strong>ir respective<br />
nominees, Pavel Skitovich and Barsky, in a head-to-head competition for <strong>the</strong> post. In November 2009,<br />
Barsky, who previously led independent West Siberian Resources, was named <strong>the</strong> winner. Alfa director<br />
Mikhail Fridman, however, will be an interim CEO until 2011, while Barsky is being trained.<br />
TNK-BP approved a US$1.8bn investment plan for 2010-2012 in February 2010. The planned upstream<br />
spending is in line with TNK-BP's strategy of aggressively replacing its reserves each year. Of <strong>the</strong> total,<br />
around US$1.7bn (96%) is to be spent on <strong>the</strong> two upstream projects. The first involves <strong>the</strong> full field<br />
development and <strong>the</strong> establishment of regional infrastructure at <strong>the</strong> eastern part of <strong>the</strong> Uvat group of <strong>oil</strong><br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
fields, while <strong>the</strong> second project is <strong>the</strong> fur<strong>the</strong>r development of <strong>the</strong> Verkhnechonskoe <strong>oil</strong> field in East<br />
Siberia.<br />
TNK-BP will be hoping that <strong>the</strong> investment in its upstream Siberian assets will help contribute towards its<br />
goal of replacing 100% of its production with new reserves each year. The company aims to spend around<br />
80% of its total budget each year on upstream projects, with <strong>the</strong> focus on its core East Siberian and West<br />
Siberian regions. US$137mn has been earmarked to upgrade a diesel hydrotreater unit at <strong>the</strong> company's<br />
130,000b/d Saratov refinery, as part of a US$1.3bn package outlined in October 2009 to enhance fuel<br />
quality from <strong>the</strong> company's refineries.<br />
The announcement of <strong>the</strong> new spending follows a statement by TNK-BP in October 2009 that it was<br />
planning to invest US$400mn in its fields in <strong>the</strong> Yamal Peninsula. Of this amount, US$180mn was<br />
allocated for developing its heavy <strong>oil</strong> Russkoe field in 2010/2011 and <strong>the</strong> remaining US$220mn was put<br />
towards its Suzun and Tagul <strong>oil</strong> fields.<br />
In February 2008, TNK-BP announced plans to increase production by 18% to 1.9.mn b/d by 2012, using<br />
US$15bn of projects to deliver a recovery in volume expansion. In March 2009, TNK-BP said it would<br />
invest US$1bn by 2012 into development of <strong>the</strong> Samotlor field for maintaining <strong>oil</strong> production in it at a<br />
level of 30mn tpa (600,000b/d).<br />
TNK-BP’s growing <strong>gas</strong> output is obliging <strong>the</strong> group to negotiate with pipeline monopoly Gazprom over<br />
<strong>the</strong> offtake of <strong>the</strong> extra volumes. TNK-BP has started signing long-term (three-year) contracts for <strong>the</strong><br />
supply of <strong>gas</strong> to customers, according to <strong>the</strong> company in November 2007. The conclusion of long-term<br />
contracts with customers of TNK-BP requires guarantees of <strong>gas</strong> transportation by Gazprom. There have<br />
also been talks with Gazprom over <strong>the</strong> joint construction of a now-scrapped LNG project near St.<br />
Petersburg.<br />
Latest Developments<br />
TNK-BP in July 2010 was in talks with unnamed banks over taking a US$700mn unsecured three-year<br />
loan, according to Reuters.<br />
On June 3 2010, TNK-BP announced that it had begun voluntary bankruptcy proceedings for its<br />
subsidiary Rusia Petroleum, <strong>the</strong> operator of <strong>the</strong> Kovykta field. TNK-BP initiated bankruptcy<br />
proceedings against Rusia after recalling its loans to <strong>the</strong> subsidiary in mid-May 2010. By end-Q110,<br />
Rusia's total debt stood at RUB11.4bn (US$367mn), according to company's financial <strong>report</strong>. Although<br />
<strong>the</strong> company did not state <strong>the</strong> preferred buyer for Russia’s assets, it is most likely that <strong>the</strong> Kovykta licence<br />
will find its way to government-connected firms.<br />
In May 2010 <strong>the</strong> company said that it is planning to expand its premium-class bitumen production by<br />
60% y-o-y. The move is in response to Russian legislation increasing <strong>the</strong> minimum lifespan of roads,<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
which will boost demand for longer-life bitumen products. To contribute to <strong>the</strong> 60% growth target, TNK-<br />
BP aims for a 50% increase in production of its polymer-modified TNK Alfabit brand of premium<br />
bitumen from 24,000 tonnes in 2009 to 36,000 tonnes in 2010. TNK-BP claimed that using TNK Alfabit,<br />
which will be produced at its pilot plant in Ryazan, 250km south-east of Moscow, could extend <strong>the</strong> life of<br />
a road to seven-10 years from <strong>the</strong> current two to three years.<br />
The Russkoye field, located in Russia's Yamal-Nenets region, holds an estimated 2.25bn bbl of <strong>oil</strong><br />
reserves (international P3 classification). Discovered in 1968, <strong>the</strong> field remained undeveloped owing to<br />
<strong>the</strong> challenging climate and <strong>the</strong> lack of heavy <strong>oil</strong> processing technology. TNK-BP estimates <strong>the</strong> total cost<br />
of developing <strong>the</strong> field at US$4.5bn. Peak production is expected to be between 200,000b/d and<br />
400,000b/d, depending on whe<strong>the</strong>r TNK-BP constructs facilities for blending <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> to allow it to be<br />
transported by pipeline.<br />
TNK-BP is ramping up volumes at <strong>the</strong> Uvat project in <strong>the</strong> Tyumen region of West Siberia. In early<br />
February 2009, its subsidiaries Tyumenneftegaz and TNK-Uvat brought onstream <strong>the</strong> Ust-Tegusskoe<br />
and Urnenskoe fields. According to TNK-BP's figures cited by Oil & Capital, output from <strong>the</strong> two new<br />
fields was expected to average 60,000b/d in 2009 and above 100,000b/d in 2010. The company expects to<br />
reach peak output of approximately 220,000b/d in 2015/16. The Ust-Tegusskoe and Urnenskoe fields will<br />
account for half of that figure, while <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r half will come from smaller satellite fields that are yet to be<br />
developed. By end-2009, total investment in Uvat was set to reach RUB13bn.<br />
TNK-BP entered <strong>the</strong> Uvat district in <strong>the</strong> early 1990s and has since discovered an estimated 1.47-1.61mn<br />
bbl of recoverable reserves (C1+C2) in its 13 licences in <strong>the</strong> area. There are currently 21 known fields in<br />
<strong>the</strong> Uvat project, <strong>the</strong> first of which, Kalchinsoe, entered production in 1993. Discoveries in 2007/08<br />
included <strong>the</strong> Kosukhinskoe, Protozanovskoe, Secero-Kachkarskoe, Nemchinovskoe, Sredne-Keumskoe,<br />
A.Malyk, Yuzhno-Venikhyartskoe and Zapadno-Epasskoe fields. Uvat is set to become a cornerstone of<br />
TNK-BP's Western Siberian strategy, with <strong>the</strong> company planning to incorporate its assets in <strong>the</strong><br />
neighbouring Omsk and Khanty-Mansiysk regions into <strong>the</strong> project.<br />
Russia's environmental watchdog Rosprirodnadzor has advised Rosnedra, Russia's subs<strong>oil</strong> agency, to<br />
withdraw <strong>the</strong> licence for <strong>the</strong> Kovykta <strong>gas</strong> condensate field from TNK-BP. A dispute over <strong>the</strong> field's<br />
development has been ongoing for years, with TNK-BP being pressured to sell its 62.8% stake to a stateowned<br />
company. In June 2007, an MoU was signed under which TNK-BP agreed to sell its interest in<br />
Rusia, <strong>the</strong> operator of Kovykta, to Gazprom. Talks over <strong>the</strong> sale broke down, however, and since July<br />
2009 Gazprom seems to have put its interest in <strong>the</strong> field on <strong>the</strong> backburner as a result of <strong>the</strong> recession.<br />
In <strong>the</strong> past Rosnedra has argued for <strong>the</strong> removal of <strong>the</strong> licence from TNK-BP thanks to <strong>the</strong> company's<br />
inability to raise production to 9bcm as required under <strong>the</strong> terms of <strong>the</strong> licence. However, this output<br />
target was based on <strong>the</strong> assumption that <strong>the</strong> Irkutsk authorities would comply with <strong>the</strong>ir part of <strong>the</strong><br />
contract through building <strong>the</strong> required downstream infrastructure to channel Kovykta's <strong>gas</strong> to end-users.<br />
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With Irkutsk having failed to fulfil its side of <strong>the</strong> contract, TNK-BP has not been unable to meet <strong>the</strong><br />
contracted output targets.<br />
Currently, TNK-BP holds 62.8% in Kovykta through its stake in Rusia Petroleum, whose o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
shareholders are Interros Resources (26%) and <strong>the</strong> Irkutsk government (11%). Kovykta's reserves are<br />
estimated at 2tcm (C1+C2). Viktor Vekselberg, one of <strong>the</strong> company’s Russian co-owners, announced in<br />
June 2009 that <strong>the</strong> sale of Kovykta could be imminent and <strong>the</strong> government was close to including<br />
Kovykta in Gazprom’s investment programme.<br />
TNK-BP in August 2009 announced plans to construct a new 450Mcm <strong>gas</strong> processing plant at <strong>the</strong><br />
Pokrovskoe <strong>oil</strong> field in <strong>the</strong> Orenburg region by 2012. Pokrovskoe is operated by TNK-BP’s subsidiary<br />
Orenburgneft. Capturing 95% of associated <strong>gas</strong> production is nominally a legal requirement in Russia.<br />
By end-2008, TNK-BP had already invested over US$600mn in <strong>gas</strong> utilisation projects and <strong>the</strong> company<br />
plans to invest a fur<strong>the</strong>r US$700mn in such projects by 2012 with <strong>the</strong> view of raising <strong>the</strong> utilisation from<br />
<strong>the</strong> current rate of roughly 80% to 95%. Although cost estimates for <strong>the</strong> Pokrovskoe facility have not<br />
been announced, Kommersant’s industry sources put <strong>the</strong> price tag at US$150-400mn. TNK-BP already<br />
reached a deal with Gazprom to link <strong>the</strong> plant to its pipeline system. It is estimated that around 80% of<br />
TNK-BP’s <strong>gas</strong> production in 2009 will be a by-product of <strong>oil</strong> production.<br />
In June 2009, TNK-BP announced <strong>the</strong> start of new phase of production at <strong>the</strong> Kamennoye <strong>oil</strong> field in<br />
West Siberia, boosting its output to 36,000b/d. In 2004-2008, TNP-BP invested over US$600mn in<br />
Kamennoye and hopes to boost its output to 80,000b/d by 2015.<br />
In mid-October 2008, VerkhnechonskNefteGas, a JV between TNK-BP (68%) and Rosneft (32%),<br />
began commercial <strong>oil</strong> production at <strong>the</strong> Verkhnechonsk field in East Siberia, which is expected to average<br />
26,100b/d over 2009. TNK-BP believes Verkhnechonsk to hold recoverable reserves of over 1bn bbl of<br />
<strong>oil</strong> and sees peak production at 140,600-200,900b/d. Crude is exported to Asia via <strong>the</strong> ESPO pipeline.<br />
TNK-BP said it had invested around US$1bn in <strong>the</strong> field to date and is likely to spend ano<strong>the</strong>r US$4bn<br />
over <strong>the</strong> course of its producing life, with capex of US$500mn planned for 2009.<br />
Russian police raided TNK-BP headquarters on March 2008 as part of a long-running criminal<br />
investigation against Sidanko Oil (one of <strong>the</strong> companies merged to form TNK-BP in 2003).<br />
TNK and Sibneft jointly acquired Slavneft in 2004’s privatisation auction, with <strong>the</strong> company producing<br />
over 360,000b/d of crude from fields in Western Siberia.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Tatneft<br />
Company Analysis<br />
SWOT Analysis<br />
Tatneft is struggling to deliver upstream volumes, and<br />
has a small and inefficient downstream operation.<br />
Attempts to diversify internationally have met with<br />
mixed success, with modest exposure in Ukraine and a<br />
stalled deal in Turkey. State priorities do not necessarily<br />
coincide with those of <strong>the</strong> company, and Tatneft looks<br />
unlikely to be able to compete effectively with its larger<br />
Russian peers. Investment is required at high levels in<br />
order to maintain output, expand petrochemicals<br />
capacity and enlarge/improve its downstream arm.<br />
Financial Statistics<br />
Revenues:<br />
• RUB220bn (2009)<br />
• RUB444.3bn (2008)<br />
• RUB356.3bn (2007)<br />
• RUB318.3bn (2006)<br />
Net income/(loss):<br />
• (RUB100bn) (2009, prelim.)<br />
• RUB8.41bn (2008)<br />
• RUB43.3bn (2007)<br />
• RUB29.8bn (2006)<br />
Operating Statistics<br />
Crude production:<br />
• 519,100b/d (2009)<br />
• 501,500b/d (2008)<br />
• 517,000b/d (2007)<br />
Strengths:<br />
Weaknesses:<br />
Opportunities:<br />
Threats:<br />
Dominant <strong>oil</strong> producer in Tatarstan<br />
Growing CEE portfolio<br />
Domestic refining and marketing interests<br />
Involvement in petrochemicals supply<br />
Rising investment requirement<br />
Modest refining/retail capacity<br />
Limited upside potential in <strong>oil</strong> supply<br />
Growth in local <strong>oil</strong>/regional demand<br />
Expansion of petrochemicals segment<br />
Downstream <strong>oil</strong> upgrading/expansion<br />
Sustainability of upstream <strong>oil</strong> volumes<br />
Oversupply in CEE refining capacity<br />
Changes in national energy policy<br />
Gas production<br />
• 756Mcm (2009)<br />
• 760Mcm (2008)<br />
Proven <strong>oil</strong> reserves:<br />
• 6.311 bbl (2009)<br />
• 6.25bn bbl (2008)<br />
• 5.91bn bbl (2007)<br />
Proven <strong>gas</strong> reserves<br />
• 36.8bcm (2007)<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Market Position<br />
Strategy<br />
Tatneft is <strong>the</strong> main <strong>oil</strong> company active in <strong>the</strong> Volga region of Tatarstan and <strong>the</strong> country’s sixth largest <strong>oil</strong><br />
producer. The group’s key shareholders are <strong>the</strong> regional government of Tatarstan (with 31%), <strong>the</strong> TAIF<br />
group of companies (6%) and employees (8%). Downstream assets include two Tatarstan refineries, <strong>the</strong><br />
20,000b/d Kichuyi plant (100%) and <strong>the</strong> Nizhnekamsk plant (63%), and a network of over 600 service<br />
stations in Russia and Ukraine. Tatneft holds an 8.6% stake in Ukraine’s largest refinery, <strong>the</strong> 370,000b/d<br />
UkrTatNaft. The company also has exploration acreage in Libya and Syria.<br />
Tatneft said in January 2004 that planned expansion projects through to 2010 would cost over US$2.7bn.<br />
This will include a US$1.3bn processing complex at <strong>the</strong> Nizhnekamsk refinery, incorporating a<br />
polypropylene and polyethylene production plant. Tatneft will also expand its service station network and<br />
<strong>the</strong> capacity of <strong>the</strong> Nizhnekamsk syn<strong>the</strong>tic motor <strong>oil</strong> plant. The company’s crude output is expected to<br />
remain flat over <strong>the</strong> next five years, as it is already investing billions to maintain production levels at its<br />
ageing fields.<br />
Latest Developments<br />
In November 2009, Tatneft increased its syndicated loan to US$1.5bn from US$900mn. The three-year<br />
loan, which is secured on <strong>oil</strong> exports, was oversubscribed. The loan will be used for general corporate<br />
purposes particularly for Tatneft's refinery and petrochemical complex, which is currently being built at<br />
Nizhnekamsk in Tatarstan.<br />
In May 2009, Kalmneftegaz, in which Tatneft holds a 50% stake, has booked 35bcm of <strong>gas</strong> reserves from<br />
a discovery in nor<strong>the</strong>rn Kalmykia.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Total<br />
Company Analysis<br />
SWOT Analysis<br />
The French major’s focus in Russia is <strong>the</strong> European Arctic.<br />
Total’s most significant upstream asset is its 40% stake in <strong>the</strong><br />
Kharyaga field. The company has also been named partner of<br />
<strong>the</strong> Shtokman development field, but it may not gain ownership<br />
of Shtokman’s reserves or production. In <strong>the</strong> downstream<br />
segment, Total has some petrol outlets across <strong>the</strong> country. The<br />
French company is keen, as are most IOCs, to increase its stake<br />
in Russia’s upstream despite <strong>the</strong> challenging business<br />
environment.<br />
Strengths: Offshore and deepwater expertise<br />
Good relationship with Gazprom<br />
Weaknesses: Rising investment requirement<br />
Unpopularity of PSAs<br />
Opportunities: Rise in CEE regional <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> consumption<br />
Financial Statistics (Group)<br />
Total revenue:<br />
• EUR131.3bn (2009)<br />
• EUR180.0bn (2008)<br />
• EUR158.7mn (2007)<br />
• EUR132.7bn (2006)<br />
• EUR117.1bn (2005)<br />
Net income:<br />
• EUR8.6bn (2009)<br />
• EUR13.9bn (2008)<br />
• EUR12.2bn (2007)<br />
• EUR11.4bn (2006)<br />
• EUR11.6bn (2005)<br />
Operating Statistics<br />
Net <strong>oil</strong> production:<br />
• 11,000b/d (2009)<br />
• 8,000b/d (2008)<br />
• 7,000b/d (2007)<br />
• 7,000b/d (2006)<br />
Net <strong>gas</strong> production:<br />
• 204Mcm (2009)<br />
Potential for award of fur<strong>the</strong>r Russian acreage<br />
Threats:<br />
Sustainability of Russian <strong>oil</strong> growth<br />
Changes in national energy policy<br />
Uncertainties over financing and future operations of<br />
Shtokman<br />
Market Position<br />
Total’s interest in Russia is concentrated in <strong>the</strong> Arctic region of Yamal-Nenets. The company has a 50%<br />
interest in <strong>the</strong> Kharyaga <strong>oil</strong> field, which holds estimated reserves of 1.2bn bbl of <strong>oil</strong>. The 29-year PSA<br />
was signed in 1995 and came into operation in 1999. Current output is around 20,000b/d, but following<br />
<strong>the</strong> development of Phase 3, production at Kharyaga is expected to rise to around 60,000b/d by 2013. The<br />
combined investment in <strong>the</strong> project is put at US$900mn. The o<strong>the</strong>r partners in <strong>the</strong> project are Stat<strong>oil</strong><br />
(30%), Zarubezhneft (20%) and <strong>the</strong> Nenets Oil Company (10%), which is controlled by <strong>the</strong> regional<br />
government. Downstream, Total operates petrol stations across <strong>the</strong> country’s main cities.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
In July 2007, <strong>the</strong> company gained a 25% stake in <strong>the</strong> Shtokman field in <strong>the</strong> Barents Sea, which holds <strong>gas</strong><br />
reserves of around 3.2tcm. According to Total’s CEO, Christophe de Margerie, <strong>the</strong> company will invest<br />
US$4-5bn in <strong>the</strong> project over <strong>the</strong> next five years. The company has relevant expertise in deepwater and<br />
long-distance <strong>gas</strong> production, as well as in LNG transportation. The operating consortium will take on all<br />
<strong>the</strong> risks and will own <strong>the</strong> infrastructure for 25 years once production has started. The licence for <strong>the</strong><br />
field, however, will be held by Gazprom’s 100%-owned Sevmorneftegaz unit, with Gazprom retaining all<br />
output marketing rights. There has been some confusion over whe<strong>the</strong>r Total will be allowed to book a<br />
25% share of <strong>the</strong> field’s reserves, with <strong>the</strong> company’s CEO claiming that it will do so, while Gazprom’s<br />
statement suggests that this is not <strong>the</strong> case.<br />
Strategy<br />
The French company has been one of <strong>the</strong> few foreign majors to maintain investment in <strong>the</strong> country, in<br />
spite of <strong>the</strong> new paradigm for foreign investment in <strong>the</strong> country, which provides for state control over<br />
resources and production with minority stakes for foreign partners. The company seems to be benefiting<br />
from France’s admission of Gazprom into <strong>the</strong> national downstream market. It is speculated that in return<br />
for greater access to <strong>the</strong> French market, Total was given Shtokman stake. Putin's good relations with de<br />
Margerie are likely to give Total <strong>the</strong> reassurance it needs to increase investment in Russia. In June 2009,<br />
Les Echos newspaper cited Total’s head of E&P, Yves-Louis Darricarrere, as saying that Total and<br />
Gazprom are looking at more joint projects in Russia.<br />
Latest Developments<br />
In June 2009 Putin approved a JV between Total and independent <strong>gas</strong> producer Novatek. Putin’s blessing<br />
followed Total’s sale of its stake in its Dutch refinery to Luk<strong>oil</strong>. Following a meeting with Total's CEO,<br />
Putin approved Novatek and Total's US$900mn plan to develop <strong>the</strong> 47.3bcm Termokarstovoye field in<br />
Yamal-Nenets, and even intimated that <strong>the</strong> French group could be chosen for <strong>the</strong> second phase of <strong>the</strong><br />
Shtokman field project. Under <strong>the</strong> deal, Total will take a 49% stake in Terneftegaz, a Novatek<br />
subsidiary, which holds <strong>the</strong> Termokarstovoye licence. The partners will carry out fur<strong>the</strong>r appraisal and<br />
development studies with <strong>the</strong> aim of launching <strong>the</strong> project in 2011.<br />
The Russian government in April 2009 approved Total’s plans to invest US$403.7mn in development of<br />
<strong>the</strong> Kharyaga field during 2009, ending previous disputes over <strong>the</strong> project’s spending. In March 2007, <strong>the</strong><br />
energy ministry accused Total of failing to comply with <strong>the</strong> terms of Kharyaga’s licensing agreement.<br />
This has prompted concern that Total’s share in <strong>the</strong> field could go <strong>the</strong> way of Shell’s Sakhalin-II stake<br />
and TNK-BP’s interest in Kovykta, and be sold to Gazprom. However, in July 2007, Russian authorities<br />
approved an increase in <strong>the</strong> 2007 cost estimate for Kharyaga <strong>oil</strong> field. Cost overruns on PSAs have been a<br />
major sticking point between IOCs and Russian regulators, as PSAs only oblige operators to share <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
profits with <strong>the</strong> state once <strong>the</strong>ir expenses are recouped.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
In July 2007, following months of indecision by Gazprom, Total was chosen as a partner in Shtokman.<br />
Originally, Gazprom had pre-selected IOCs to act as minority equity partners in <strong>the</strong> field’s development,<br />
and shortlisted Total, along with Norway’s Stat<strong>oil</strong> and Norsk Hydro, and US majors Chevron and<br />
ConocoPhillips. In October 2006, however, Gazprom performed a sudden volte-face and declared that it<br />
would develop <strong>the</strong> field on its own. This move raised doubts among analysts as to whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> company<br />
had <strong>the</strong> financial resources and technical ability for such a challenging project, especially considering its<br />
lack of LNG experience at <strong>the</strong> time. Since <strong>the</strong>n, Gazprom has gradually softened its approach, first stating<br />
that it would allow IOCs in contractors, and <strong>the</strong>n giving Total a major role in <strong>the</strong> field’s development.<br />
In 2006, Rosneft cancelled a deal with Total to develop <strong>the</strong> Vankor <strong>oil</strong> field, and <strong>the</strong> French major lost its<br />
appeal against <strong>the</strong> decision.<br />
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Russia Oil and Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
Novatek<br />
Company Analysis<br />
SWOT Analysis<br />
Russia’s largest private <strong>gas</strong> producer is going from strength to<br />
strength. On <strong>the</strong> back of good Kremlin connections and solid<br />
management, production and reserves continue to rise steadily<br />
and profitability remained strong even in <strong>the</strong> 2008-2009<br />
downturn. The big test for <strong>the</strong> company’s ambitions, however,<br />
will come once its Arctic LNG projects get under way, as <strong>the</strong><br />
company will be challenging Gazprom’s export monopoly.<br />
Strengths: Large untapped Arctic <strong>gas</strong> field<br />
Good reserve base<br />
Good Kremlin connections<br />
Condensate cash flow<br />
Financial Statistics<br />
Sales<br />
• RUB52.3bn (H110)<br />
• RUB86.9bn (2009)<br />
• RUB76.1bn (2008)<br />
Net income/(loss)<br />
• RUB18.1bn (H110)<br />
• RUB25.7bn (2009)<br />
• RUB22.9bn (2008)<br />
Operating Statistics<br />
Net Condensate Production<br />
• 60,000b/d (2009)<br />
Net Gas Production<br />
• 32bcm (2009)<br />
Proven Hydrocarbon Reserves<br />
• 8.85bn boe (end-2009)<br />
Weaknesses:<br />
Remote deposits<br />
High costs of LNG projects<br />
Kremlin’s anxiety over foreign partners in <strong>the</strong> Arctic<br />
Opportunities:<br />
Nor<strong>the</strong>astern Passage<br />
Exports to Asia<br />
Threats:<br />
Lack of export markets<br />
Resurgence of Gazprom’s monopolistic instincts<br />
Cost inflation in <strong>the</strong> Arctic<br />
Market Position<br />
Novatek was founded in 2004 and is Russia’s largest private <strong>gas</strong>-focused player, focusing its activities on<br />
Yamal-Nenets. Its proven reserves were 8.85bn boe by <strong>the</strong> end of 2009. The strong reserve growth was<br />
attributed to new wells at <strong>the</strong> Yurkharovskoe and Sterkhovoye fields, and <strong>the</strong> discovery of new deposits<br />
in <strong>the</strong> Khancheyskoe field. The company is majority-owned by its management, although Gazprom has a<br />
19% interest. While still a minnow in comparison with <strong>the</strong> state <strong>gas</strong> giant, Novatek has been growing<br />
steadily, reaching 32bcm of output in 2009, plus 60,000b/d of <strong>oil</strong> and condensate.<br />
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As <strong>the</strong> company aims to expand its share of <strong>the</strong> domestic <strong>gas</strong> market, it is beginning to clash with<br />
Gazprom, which is keen to protect its quasi-monopoly on distribution. Novatek, however, is a formidable<br />
competitor, boasting <strong>the</strong> support of Genadiy Timchenko, a former secret service official with close<br />
connections to Vladimir Putin. In June 2009 Timchenko raised his direct stake in <strong>the</strong> company to 20.8%.<br />
Novatek scored a major victory in November 2009, when Gazprom conceded <strong>the</strong> independent a right of<br />
access to <strong>the</strong> national pipeline, in return for an 18% net-back transit fee. This enabled Novatek to continue<br />
with <strong>the</strong> deal to supply subsidiaries of Russia’s largest power provider, Inter RAO UES, with 65bcm<br />
from 2010 to 2015 at a cost of about RUB177.3bn (US$6bn). Although Inter RAO is already contracted<br />
to buy that <strong>gas</strong> from Gazprom, Novatek was able to woo <strong>the</strong> utility with lower prices, to <strong>the</strong> ire of <strong>the</strong><br />
state <strong>gas</strong> giant.<br />
Through its controlling stake in <strong>the</strong> Yamal LNG operating vehicle, Novatek is <strong>the</strong> operator of <strong>the</strong> South<br />
(Yuzhno)-Tambeyskoe <strong>gas</strong> field onshore <strong>the</strong> Yamal-Nenets region, which is expected to begin exporting<br />
<strong>gas</strong> by about 2018. The project is known as Yamal LNG. Although no firm project timetable has been set,<br />
Gazprom previously said it aims to start producing <strong>the</strong> first 15bcm of <strong>gas</strong> in Yamal by 2011 and <strong>the</strong>n to<br />
gradually boost volumes to an ambitious 250bcm per year.<br />
Strategy<br />
The company is pursuing a two-pronged strategy – boosting supplies to <strong>the</strong> domestic market while<br />
developing LNG export projects in Yamal. To advance Yamal LNG, Novatek will need a well-heeled<br />
foreign partner but <strong>the</strong> company has given conflicting indications about when this will happen and who<br />
will be joining it. A number of IOCs, as well as Qatar government, have made overtures to Novatek about<br />
joining <strong>the</strong> Yamal LNG scheme.<br />
Latest Developments<br />
In May 2009, Novatek paid US$650mn in cash to acquire a 51% stake in Yamal LNG, denying rumours<br />
of a planned share offer. Gazprom holds ano<strong>the</strong>r 25.1% in Yamal LNG through a subsidiary as well as<br />
directly controlling a 19% stake in Novatek. Gazprom previously announced its intention to begin<br />
feasibility studies on an LNG plant on <strong>the</strong> peninsula in early 2010, although <strong>the</strong> financial crisis is likely to<br />
delay this. The chief executive officers of <strong>the</strong> two companies agreed to begin third-party negotiations on<br />
<strong>the</strong> project following a meeting in August 2009. Yamal LNG is <strong>the</strong> operator of <strong>the</strong> South-Tambeyskoe<br />
<strong>gas</strong> field in <strong>the</strong> Yamal-Nenets region. In June 2009, Gazprom shortlisted Total and Shell for participation<br />
in Yamal LNG, adding that Mitsui and Mitsubishi were also expected to obtain minority rights in <strong>the</strong><br />
project. Conoco has also previously expressed interest.<br />
Amid much fanfare, in August 2010 Novatek shipped its first cargo of condensate using <strong>the</strong> Nor<strong>the</strong>rn Sea<br />
Route (known as <strong>the</strong> Nor<strong>the</strong>ast Passage) to demonstrate <strong>the</strong> feasibility of selling its resources in <strong>the</strong><br />
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Barents Sea region directly to Asia. A cargo of condensate was dispatched to China in Sovcomflot's hightonnage<br />
tanker Baltica with support from a nuclear icebreaker.<br />
By using <strong>the</strong> Nor<strong>the</strong>ast Passage, Novatek can reduce its normal journey to China and Japan of about<br />
20,400km around <strong>the</strong> Suez Canal to about 12,500km, which would significantly reduce transit time, fuel<br />
costs and <strong>the</strong> risk of pirate attacks.<br />
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Russneft<br />
Company Analysis<br />
SWOT Analysis<br />
Although a relatively small producer by Russian<br />
standards, Russneft is well integrated with upstream <strong>oil</strong><br />
assets, two refineries, service stations, and a fuels<br />
terminal. While this means <strong>the</strong> company is relatively safe<br />
from crude <strong>oil</strong> price fluctuations, <strong>the</strong> company’s main<br />
challenge during <strong>the</strong> late 2000s has been dealing with state<br />
influence and legal disputes. Following its acquisition by<br />
Sistema in 2010, <strong>the</strong>se problems now appear to be over for<br />
Russneft, giving it <strong>the</strong> chance to stabilise its declining<br />
crude production. With <strong>the</strong> threat of a merger with<br />
Bashneft in <strong>the</strong> future, <strong>the</strong> company’s independent<br />
existence seems to be at risk.<br />
Strengths: Integrated upstream and downstream<br />
Diverse upstream <strong>oil</strong> portfolio<br />
Financial Statistics<br />
Revenue:<br />
• RUB116.14bn (2009)<br />
• RUB137.10bn (2008)<br />
• RUB113.70bn (2007)<br />
• RUB102.45bn (2006)<br />
Net Profit :<br />
• RUB15.57bn (2009)<br />
• RUB10.58bn (2008)<br />
• RUB12.25bn (2007)<br />
• RUB9.94bn (2006)<br />
Operating Statistics<br />
Refining Capacity:<br />
• 132,594b/d (2009)<br />
Oil Production:<br />
• 254,942b/d (2009)<br />
• 286,082b/d (2008)<br />
• 281,260b/d (2007)<br />
• 296,328b/d (2006)<br />
Weaknesses:<br />
Declining <strong>oil</strong> production<br />
Oversupply in CEE refining capacity<br />
Opportunities:<br />
Growth in Russian <strong>oil</strong> production<br />
Rise in CEE regional <strong>oil</strong> consumption<br />
Threats:<br />
Vulnerable to state influence<br />
Large state-run competitors<br />
Market Position<br />
Russneft, one of Russia’s largest privately owned energy companies, was formed in 2003 when its owner<br />
Mikhail Gutseriyev left Slavneft and purchased some of its assets. Russneft produced 255,000b/d in 2009.<br />
It has 30 separate upstream operations split into four groups – West Siberia, Ural, Povolzhsk and central<br />
Siberia – and has recoverable reserves of 4.6bn bbl.<br />
In <strong>the</strong> downstream, Russneft also owns two refineries: <strong>the</strong> 132,594b/d Orsknefteorgsintez plant in Orsk<br />
(Orenburg) which produces fuels and <strong>the</strong> Neftemaslozavod plant which it acquired from TNK-BP in 2005<br />
and is dedicated to producing lubricants and protective rustproof compounds. In 2009 <strong>the</strong> Orsk refinery<br />
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processed about 105,000b/d, giving it a utilisation rate of less than 80%. The company also owns a<br />
network of 96 petrol stations (end-2009) and a crude <strong>oil</strong> terminal producing 140,000-b/d in <strong>the</strong> Bryansk<br />
region.<br />
Russneft was breaking <strong>the</strong> mould of an increasingly state-dominated industry, until its shares were frozen<br />
by a district court in August 2007, after owner Gutseriyev was charged with tax evasion. Gutseriyev <strong>the</strong>n<br />
sold <strong>the</strong> company to a Basic Element (Basel) investment vehicle controlled by Oleg Deripaska, a major<br />
businessman generally seen as a Kremlin ally. The Kremlin's removal of an international search warrant<br />
for Gutseriyev in November 2009 enabled Russneft’s founder to resume ownership of <strong>the</strong> company. In<br />
January 2010 Gutseriyev agreed to take over Russneft from Deripaska, in return for assuming <strong>the</strong><br />
company's US$6bn worth of debts and US$600mn in cash.<br />
Strategy<br />
Now that Gutseriyev's relations with <strong>the</strong> government have apparently been mended at present, we expect<br />
<strong>the</strong> businessman's extensive experience in <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> sector to spur Russneft's development in <strong>the</strong> next few<br />
years. Following his return, Gutseriyev agreed to farm out 49% of Russneft to conglomerate Sistema for<br />
an undisclosed amount. The Russneft stake will allow Sistema to balance out its downstream-heavy<br />
portfolio, helping it fill its refineries.<br />
In May 2010 Gutseriyev said Russneft was considering merging with Sistema subsidiary Bashneft in two<br />
to three years. According to Gutseriyev, <strong>the</strong> merged company would <strong>the</strong>n conduct an IPO. He added that<br />
Russneft intends to increase its annual <strong>oil</strong> production to 400,000b/d of <strong>oil</strong> in <strong>the</strong> next few years and to<br />
make an annual profit of US$1.5bn (RUB45.9bn).<br />
Recent Developments<br />
In September 2010 Sistema announced <strong>the</strong> process of restructuring Russneft’s debt was nearly complete.<br />
The announcement followed remarks by Sistema President, Leonid Melamed, in May 2010 that once<br />
Bashneft covers debts of US$7bn, Sistema would allow <strong>the</strong> two companies to merge.<br />
In August 2009 Russneft and its partner MOL settled an internal dispute over <strong>the</strong> jointly operated<br />
Zapadno-Malobalykskoye (ZMB) field in West Siberia. According to <strong>the</strong> Interfax news agency, Russneft<br />
agreed to pay RUB6.3bn (US$201mn) debt for <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> it bought from ZMB. Although <strong>the</strong> settlement has<br />
diffused internal tensions, Russneft's stake in <strong>the</strong> project remains threatened by a competing ownership<br />
claim from Rosneft.<br />
Gazprom Neft suspended talks over <strong>the</strong> purchase of Russneft in April 2009. Gazprom Neft appears to<br />
have baulked at Deripaska's <strong>report</strong>ed valuation of <strong>the</strong> company, according to Vedomosti’s sources.<br />
Gazprom Neft wanted to buy Russneft by assuming its debt, which is estimated at US$5.6bn, while<br />
Deripaska valued <strong>the</strong> company at US$7.5-8bn, excluding debt. The negotiations broke down after <strong>the</strong><br />
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indebted Deripaska was thrown a lifeline by state-owned Sberbank, which agreed to restructure one of<br />
Russneft’s loans.<br />
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Surgutneftegaz – Summary<br />
Surgutneftegaz is <strong>the</strong> fourth largest crude producer in Russia. Its traditional base is sou<strong>the</strong>rn West Siberia<br />
but it has been expanding into Timan-Pechora and Khanty-Mansyisk in <strong>the</strong> north and views Eastern<br />
Siberia as ano<strong>the</strong>r growth region. Crude production averaged 1.2mn b/d in 2009; <strong>gas</strong> output totalled<br />
around 14.1bcm. The company’s downstream assets include <strong>the</strong> 398,000b/d Kirishi Oil Refinery<br />
(KINEF) in <strong>the</strong> Leningrad region. Retail assets include a network of around 300 service stations in<br />
Northwestern Russia. Sales in 2008 amounted to RUB547bn. Its <strong>report</strong>ing of profits, however, is<br />
somewhat erratic, as it does not follow international accounting standards. In March 2009, Surgutneftegaz<br />
made its first foray into international markets, paying US$1.4bn for a 21.2% stake in Hungarian <strong>oil</strong> and<br />
<strong>gas</strong> company MOL, to <strong>the</strong> chagrin of <strong>the</strong> Hungarian government.<br />
Surgutneftegaz is an opaque company. It moved 42% of its shares to a separate company in 2003 and<br />
since <strong>the</strong>n has not revealed <strong>the</strong> ownership of that stake, instead classing <strong>the</strong> stock as treasury shares.<br />
According to a statement by Russian strategist Stanislav Belkovsky to German newspaper Die Welt in<br />
2007, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin himself owns 37% of Surgutneftegaz.<br />
Sistema – Summary<br />
Telecom-focused Russian conglomerate Sistema made a big entrance into <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> industry in April 2009,<br />
acquiring six major upstream and downstream businesses in <strong>the</strong> Republic of Bashkortostan (Bashkiria) in<br />
<strong>the</strong> Urals region. The deal gave Sistema a 76.5% stake in Bashneft, <strong>the</strong> regional quasi-monopoly, plus<br />
five affiliated refining and marketing concerns.<br />
In early-2010, Sistema reached a preliminary agreement to acquire 49 % of Russneft. The Russneft stake<br />
will allow Sistema to balance out its downstream-heavy portfolio, helping it to fill its refineries. Fur<strong>the</strong>r<br />
upstream growth is expected to come from <strong>the</strong> once-sleepy Bashneft, with Sistema targeting 7.8% crude<br />
output growth in Bashkiria in 2010. Given Sistema's growth ambitions, fur<strong>the</strong>r acquisition of <strong>oil</strong> assets in<br />
Russia and <strong>the</strong> former Soviet Union is to be expected in <strong>the</strong> near future.<br />
Bashenft holds 2.2bn of proven reserves and is <strong>the</strong> second largest producer in <strong>the</strong> Volga-Urals region after<br />
Tatneft. The company produced around 234,000b/d from around 140 fields in Bashkiria and neighbouring<br />
Tatarstan and Udmurtia in 2008. The company’s biggest revenue earner, however, is its large affiliated<br />
refining business, which comprises <strong>the</strong> Ufaneftechim, Nov<strong>oil</strong>, Ufaorgsintez and Ufimskiy plants, and<br />
accounts for around 10% of Russia’s refining capacity. Production of refined products in 2008 stood at<br />
420,000b/d. Marketing arm Bashkirnefteproduct has around 317 service stations in <strong>the</strong> region. Sistema is<br />
now pushing to acquire full ownership of <strong>the</strong> Bashir assets.<br />
Sistema will <strong>report</strong>edly invest RUB100bn (US$3.24bn) in upgrading its Bashkir refineries in 2011-2014.<br />
The announcement was made by Rustem Khamitov, <strong>the</strong> governor of Bashkiria, in September 2010. The<br />
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move will help it remain <strong>competitive</strong> in <strong>the</strong> fuels export market as local rivals such as TNK-BP invest<br />
heavily in <strong>the</strong>ir own plants.<br />
In December 2009 Sistema signed a strategic cooperation agreement with India’s ONGC for joint energy<br />
projects in <strong>the</strong> FSU.<br />
Itera – Summary<br />
Itera is ano<strong>the</strong>r significant domestic Russian <strong>gas</strong> player. An opaque company, it has traditionally been a<br />
<strong>gas</strong> trader but in <strong>the</strong> 2000s got involved in production. Itera works close with Gazprom and has access to<br />
its pipeline system. While Itera is keen to establish itself as a leading ‘independent’ Russian <strong>gas</strong> producer,<br />
it has backed a continuation of Gazprom’s near-monopoly.<br />
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary<br />
Anglo-Dutch Shell is no longer <strong>the</strong> leading member of <strong>the</strong> US$10bn Sakhalin-II integrated project in <strong>the</strong><br />
Far East, having relinquished control to Gazprom in December 2006 after a drawn-out battle. Previously,<br />
Shell held a 55% stake but now retains 27.5% minus one share. Shell is also involved in <strong>the</strong> Salym group<br />
of <strong>oil</strong> fields in Western Siberia through a 50:50 Salym Petroleum JV with Sibir Energy, a Gazprom Neft<br />
subsidiary. The partners are developing <strong>the</strong> West Salym, Upper Salym and Vadelyp fields, which hold an<br />
estimated 600mn bbl of crude reserves. The Salym fields started commercial production in December<br />
2005, peaking at around 160,000b/d in 2009, mostly from West Salym.<br />
In spite of <strong>the</strong> chequered history of its Russian operations, Shell has proposed developing Yamal reserves<br />
with Gazprom. In February 2009, Shell’s former CEO Jeroen van der Veer also said <strong>the</strong> company was<br />
looking to discuss joint projects with Gazprom in <strong>the</strong> Far East. This was followed in June 2009 by Putin’s<br />
informal invitation to Shell to join <strong>the</strong> Rosneft/Gazprom-led Sakhalin-III and -IV project, which were<br />
abandoned by BP.<br />
In March 2009 Salym Petroleum extended a drilling contract with US-based <strong>oil</strong> field services company<br />
Halliburton in a deal worth US$100mn. Halliburton has been working at Salym since 2005 and will now<br />
remain <strong>the</strong>re until at least 2013.<br />
ExxonMobil – Summary<br />
US major's subsidiary Exxon Nefte<strong>gas</strong> (ENL) operates <strong>the</strong> US$12bn Sakhalin-I project with a 30% stake,<br />
working alongside two units of Rosneft (20%), India's OVL (20%) and a consortium of Japanese<br />
companies JNOC, Japex, Itochu and Marubeni (30%). The partners are developing <strong>the</strong> Chayvo, Odoptu<br />
and Arkutun-Dagi offshore fields, which are estimated to contain up to 2.3bn bbl of crude and 485bcm of<br />
potential recoverable <strong>gas</strong> resources. Oil production from Chayvo, <strong>the</strong> only producing field so far, began in<br />
2006. Production peaked <strong>the</strong> very next year at around 225,000b/d (somewhat below initial expectations)<br />
and has been declining since, averaging 193,000b/d in 2008 and 165,000b/d in 2009. Chayvo also<br />
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produces <strong>gas</strong>, with output expect to eventually reach 10bcm per year. Currently, consumption of<br />
Sakhalin-I's <strong>gas</strong> remains confined to <strong>the</strong> Khabarovsk region. Rising output volumes, however, present<br />
significant export potential.<br />
Progress at Sakhalin has been slower than expected owing to disagreements between Gazprom and Exxon<br />
over <strong>gas</strong> marketing rights. Exxon supports <strong>the</strong> construction of a pipeline to China, an option it has under<br />
<strong>the</strong> project's PSA. Gazprom, on <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, has previously favoured shipping <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> as LNG from <strong>the</strong><br />
Sakhalin-II export terminal, although more recently it has insisted <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> is needed to supply <strong>the</strong><br />
domestic market to support industrial expansion in eastern Russia.<br />
In late-April 2009, Exxon resumed work at Sakhalin-I after <strong>the</strong> energy ministry finally approved its<br />
US$2bn cost plan for that year. Delay in <strong>the</strong> budget approval forced Exxon to briefly halted work on <strong>the</strong><br />
project in February 2009.<br />
The Odoptu field is due onstream in H210, Exxon announced in January 2010. Oil production from<br />
Odoptu will offset declining output from Chayvo. The Odoptu Phase 1 development will utilise <strong>the</strong><br />
existing midstream infrastructure connected to <strong>the</strong> Chayvo field. Crude from Odoptu will be sent by<br />
pipeline to <strong>the</strong> Russian mainland for export via <strong>the</strong> De-Kastri terminal in <strong>the</strong> Khabarovsk region. No<br />
production estimates for <strong>the</strong> Odoptu fields have been released. In May 2010 Exxon said that <strong>the</strong> Odoptu<br />
field will increase output at Sakhalin-I by 30,000b/d when it comes onstream in H210.<br />
Transneft – Summary<br />
State-owned Transneft is Russia’s <strong>oil</strong> pipeline monopoly. It transports about 93% of Russia’s <strong>oil</strong><br />
production, operating some 50,000km of long-distance pipelines, including <strong>the</strong> Druzhba (Friendship) line,<br />
which runs from Russia through Belarus and Poland into Germany. Transneft is also <strong>the</strong> largest<br />
shareholder (31%) in <strong>the</strong> 750,000b/d CPC system, which stretches 1,505km from Tengiz in Kazakhstan to<br />
<strong>the</strong> Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.<br />
In December 2008, <strong>the</strong> government approved Transneft’s request to increase <strong>oil</strong> transportation tariffs by<br />
15.7% from 2009. While this increase is lower than <strong>the</strong> 21% rise requested by Transneft, <strong>the</strong> news will<br />
present ano<strong>the</strong>r blow to Russian <strong>oil</strong> producers that are already exporting crude at a loss after paying<br />
export duties, transportation tariffs and taxes amid subdued <strong>oil</strong> prices. In 2008, Transneft raised its <strong>oil</strong><br />
shipping fees in January and August by 19.4% and 10.7% respectively. The company has argued <strong>the</strong><br />
increases are necessary to maintain its infrastructure and finance new projects, particularly <strong>the</strong> ESPO.<br />
Sakhalin Energy – Summary<br />
Sakhalin Energy operates <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin-II project, which formally began operations on February 18 2009<br />
and which incorporates an <strong>oil</strong> field with associated <strong>gas</strong>, a natural <strong>gas</strong> field with associated condensate, a<br />
pipeline, and an LNG processing plant and export terminal. Once fully onstream, <strong>the</strong> project will produce<br />
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9.6mn tpa of LNG and around 900,000b/d of crude <strong>oil</strong>. As of December 2006 Sakhalin Energy is majority<br />
owned by Gazprom (50% plus one share) alongside former majority owner Shell (27.5% minus one<br />
share), Mitsubishi (12.5%) and Mitsui (10%). Gazprom paid US$7.45bn for its majority stake. Roughly<br />
two-thirds of Sakhalin-II’s LNG exports will be exported to nine utilities in Japan, while <strong>the</strong> remaining<br />
third goes to South Korea and North America.<br />
In March 2009, Osaka Gas signed an SPA to buy 200,000tpa of LNG from Sakhalin-II from 2011<br />
without disclosing <strong>the</strong> financial terms.<br />
Wintershall – Summary<br />
BP – Summary<br />
Wintershall is an upstream subsidiary of German chemical group BASF. The company has two major<br />
projects in Russia. The first, <strong>the</strong> US$3bn Yuzhno (South) Russkoe <strong>gas</strong> project, holds recoverable natural<br />
<strong>gas</strong> reserves of more than 600bcm, and reach plateau production rate of 25bcm per annum in mid-2009.<br />
The companies have a preliminary agreement in place to supply over 800bcm of <strong>gas</strong> to Europe to 2043<br />
through BASF’s distribution arm Win<strong>gas</strong>. The second project is <strong>the</strong> US$1bn Achimgaz JV in <strong>the</strong> Yamal-<br />
Nenets region, in which Gazprom and Wintershall are equal partners. It came onstream in July 2008 and<br />
produced around 1bcm and 6,000b/d of condensate in 2009 and is expected to peak at 7.5bcm and<br />
55,000b/d of condensate. The project’s lifespan is put at over 40 years.<br />
BP's presence in Russia is now concentrated on <strong>the</strong> TNK-BP JV, with <strong>the</strong> British major pulling out of <strong>the</strong><br />
CPC pipeline consortium and significantly reducing its Sakhalin exposure. BP has been active in Sakhalin<br />
since 2006, when it launched a 49:51 JV with Rosneft to develop Sakhalin-IV and -V areas in <strong>the</strong> Sea of<br />
Okhotsk. The most promising acreage in Sakhalin-IV was thought to be <strong>the</strong> West Schmidt Block, with<br />
reserves estimated at up to 3bn bbl of <strong>oil</strong> and 255bcm of <strong>gas</strong>. Two exploration wells were drilled at <strong>the</strong><br />
Medved and Toiskaya structures in 2007 but both disappointed. Following extensive interpretation of<br />
seismic data, BP appears to have decided that <strong>the</strong> block holds little commercial prospects and in March<br />
2009 abandoned <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin-IV project.<br />
In February 2010, BP and Rosneft also relinquished <strong>the</strong> East Schmidt Block at Sakhalin-V. BP and<br />
Rosneft said that after evaluating extensive seismic data <strong>the</strong>y decided not to proceed to <strong>the</strong> drilling phase,<br />
again owing to poor commerciality. The JV, however, has chosen to keep <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r permit in <strong>the</strong><br />
Sakhalin-V project, <strong>the</strong> Kaigansky-Vasuykanskiy (KG) Block. The partners drilled two deepwater wells<br />
at KG in 2006 and have been sufficiently encouraged by <strong>the</strong> results to shoot more seismic data in 2010 in<br />
preparation for fur<strong>the</strong>r drilling. Estimated reserves at <strong>the</strong> only certified discovery at <strong>the</strong> block, dubbed <strong>the</strong><br />
Kaigansko-Vasyukanskoye Sea field, are put at 118mn bbl of <strong>oil</strong> and condensate (ABC1).<br />
With all synergy between Sakhalin-IV and Sakhalin-V now lost, any commercial discoveries at <strong>the</strong> KG<br />
block are most likely to be developed in conjunction with <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin-III project fur<strong>the</strong>r south.<br />
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Lundin Petroleum – Summary<br />
Swedish independent Lundin Petroleum has interests in four production licences and one exploration<br />
licence in Russia. Its most prospective asset is <strong>the</strong> Laganskiy (Lagansky) Block in <strong>the</strong> Nor<strong>the</strong>rn Caspian,<br />
where <strong>the</strong> October 2008 Morskaya discovery is estimated to hold 230mn boe of recoverable reserves.<br />
Although Lundin currently holds a 70% interest in Laganskiy, Gazprom has a call option to acquire a<br />
50% plus one share stake. Lundin has also agreed a call option to acquire an additional 30% stake from<br />
remaining shareholder Gunvor, an <strong>oil</strong> trader. Should both options be exercised, Lundin would retain 50%<br />
minus one share in <strong>the</strong> block, leaving Gazprom 50% plus one share.<br />
In February 2009, Rosnedra extended Lundin’s exploration permit for <strong>the</strong> Laganskiy Block until August<br />
2014. The contract extension will allow Lundin to delay <strong>the</strong> drilling of <strong>the</strong> Morskaya-2 appraisal well<br />
until 2010, which will test <strong>the</strong> western section of <strong>the</strong> discovery. The Petrovskaya structure, which was<br />
estimated to hold reserves of up to 300mn bbl, however, has disappointed after <strong>the</strong> Petrovskaya-1<br />
exploration well came up dry in November 2009.<br />
OMV – Summary<br />
Austria's OMV is looking to divest its Russian exploration assets and is talking to potential buyers, CEO<br />
Wolfgang Ruttenstorfer said on May 20 2010. Its Russian assets, through subsidiary Petrom's majorityowned<br />
Ring Oil Holding and Trading, are eight exploration blocks in <strong>the</strong> region of Saratov and two<br />
blocks in <strong>the</strong> region of Komi.<br />
In August 2009, Petrom <strong>report</strong>ed its first Russian exploration success at <strong>the</strong> Lugovaya-1 well, located in<br />
Saratov's Kamenskiy licence. Well tests showed a flow rate of more than 2,500b/d of light sweet <strong>oil</strong> in<br />
one zone, while two <strong>gas</strong>-bearing formations produced a combined 4,000boe/d of sweet <strong>gas</strong> and<br />
condensate. Russia's natural resources ministry said in October 2009 that reserves at <strong>the</strong> block could be as<br />
much as 80mn tonnes, or 586mn bbl, although it did not specify <strong>the</strong> level of certainty attached to this<br />
estimate.<br />
Ironically, this exploration success may be <strong>the</strong> reason for OMV's decision to exit Russia. According to<br />
Russian's law on strategic deposits, passed in May 2008, <strong>the</strong> state is empowered to take over <strong>oil</strong><br />
exploration licences where recoverable reserves exceed 70mn tonnes (513mn bbl). Should <strong>the</strong> natural<br />
resources ministry's reserves estimate be accurate, <strong>the</strong> Kamenskiy licence would be subject to this law.<br />
Although <strong>the</strong> law provides for compensation of costs plus a 30%-50% 'premium,' <strong>the</strong> fact that licences are<br />
subject to state appropriation is a major risk and has contributed to negative investor perception of Russia.<br />
Irkutsk Oil Company – Summary<br />
Irkutsk Oil Company, known by its Russian acronym INK, was established in November 2000 by<br />
bringing toge<strong>the</strong>r several small <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> producers in <strong>the</strong> Irkutsk region of East Siberia. It was <strong>the</strong> first<br />
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to bring onstream <strong>oil</strong> production in Irkutsk and remains <strong>the</strong> largest producer in <strong>the</strong> region. The company<br />
currently holds 11 <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> fields, all operated by separate subsidiaries. The company appears to be<br />
owned by its management, with 8.1% held by <strong>the</strong> European Bank for Reconstruction and<br />
Development (EBRD). INK has a strong focus on <strong>gas</strong> capture and is pursuing various policies to<br />
eliminate flaring at its fields. Production in 2008 stood at 6,000boe/d. There are several developments in<br />
<strong>the</strong> pipeline, which should benefit from connection to <strong>the</strong> ESPO export pipeline.<br />
In November 2009, state-run Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) signed an<br />
agreement with INK to study <strong>the</strong> potential application of <strong>gas</strong>-to-liquids (GTL) technology at <strong>the</strong>ir joint<br />
projects. The agreement formalises GTL plans announced by <strong>the</strong> INK chairman in September 2009. The<br />
technology would be applied at <strong>the</strong> Mogdinskiy Severniy, Bolshetirskiy and Yaraktinskiy Zapadnyy<br />
blocks, which are being developed by INK-Sever, a 51:49 JV between INK and JOGMEC.<br />
Aladdin Oil & Gas – Summary<br />
Oslo-listed Aladdin Oil & Gas was founded in 2006 and is solely focused on Russian exploration and<br />
production. It holds four licences through its 100%-owned Geotechnologia subsidiary: Middle<br />
Sediolskoye, West Uthinskoye and two licences in <strong>the</strong> Timan-Pechora Basin, all in north-western Russia.<br />
In addition, <strong>the</strong> company's 100%-owned Orneftegaz and Veselovskoe subsidiaries are exploring in <strong>the</strong><br />
south of <strong>the</strong> country: at Bogdanovskoe in <strong>the</strong> pre-Caspian depression and in <strong>the</strong> Volga-Ural Basin, giving<br />
Aladdin a total of eight Russian licences. According to Nedrelid, Aladdin has invested a total of<br />
NOK375mn (US$66.9mn) in Russia since 2006.<br />
In October 2009 Aladdin signed an agreement with Gazprom’s subsidiary KomiRegionGaz to sell<br />
46Mcm per annum for five years from its Middle Sediolskoe field in <strong>the</strong> Komi Republic. Trial production<br />
started in March 2010. The <strong>gas</strong> price for deliveries will be adjustable, with <strong>the</strong> price for Q409 set at<br />
RUB1,770/mcm (US$60/mcm). On October 14, <strong>the</strong> company announced that it was increasing its P2<br />
reserve estimates for <strong>the</strong> Middle Sediolskoe field to 383Mcm. Aladdin is hoping to produce 2,650boe/d in<br />
Russia in 2010. The Sediolskoye supply deal will provide Aladdin <strong>the</strong> funds towards <strong>the</strong> development of<br />
its remaining licences, after three years of net losses. Aladdin's future growth prospects will depend on<br />
<strong>the</strong> commercialisation of some of its o<strong>the</strong>r licences, particularly <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong>-bearing West Uthinskoye licence.<br />
PetroNeft – Summary<br />
London-listed PetroNeft was established in 2005 to develop assets in West Siberia. The company owns<br />
Licence 61, which covers an area of 4,991sq km, with 100%. The licence is also located in <strong>the</strong> Tomsk<br />
region and contains two proven <strong>oil</strong> fields – Lineynoye and Tungolskoye – as well as around 25 additional<br />
prospective areas and fur<strong>the</strong>r potential prospects that have been identified through seismic surveys.<br />
According to consultants Ryder Scott, <strong>the</strong> Lineynoye and Tungolskoye fields hold total proven, probable<br />
and possible (3P) reserves of 70.6mn bbl, while <strong>the</strong> additional and potential prospects are estimated to<br />
hold 3P reserves of 253mn bbl and exploration resource reserves (4P) of 100mn bbl. In early December<br />
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2009, PetroNeft announced plans to drill nine wells on <strong>the</strong> licence, with <strong>the</strong> first one scheduled to be<br />
spudded in April 2010.<br />
In December 2009, PetroNeft was awarded <strong>the</strong> Ledovy licence in <strong>the</strong> Tomsk region. The licence does not<br />
include two producing <strong>oil</strong> fields – Grushevoye and Lomovoye – that are located in <strong>the</strong> area. However,<br />
PetroNeft believes that two undeveloped discoveries – Ledovoye and Sklonavaya – have significant<br />
potential, and under <strong>the</strong> agreement <strong>the</strong> company can use <strong>the</strong> existing infrastructure at <strong>the</strong> two producing<br />
fields, including <strong>the</strong> Vasyugan-Raskino <strong>oil</strong> pipeline, to develop o<strong>the</strong>r discoveries. Under <strong>the</strong> agreement,<br />
PetroNeft's three-year exploration programme will include <strong>the</strong> reprocessing of seismic and well data, <strong>the</strong><br />
acquisition of 750km of new seismic data and <strong>the</strong> drilling of one well. It is targeting three drilling<br />
prospects, which are estimated to hold 55mn bbl of <strong>oil</strong> in place. The licence, which covers 2,447sq km, is<br />
<strong>the</strong> company's second in <strong>the</strong> area.<br />
Alliance Oil – Summary<br />
Independent <strong>oil</strong> company West Siberian Resources (WSR) merged with Russia-focused mid-sized<br />
Alliance Oil in April 2008. The US$2.5bn deal created a vertically integrated player with assets in Russia<br />
and Kazakhstan. Alliance's shareholders control 60% of <strong>the</strong> new entity and WSR's <strong>the</strong> remaining 40%. As<br />
of end-2009, <strong>the</strong> company had proven and probable (P2) reserves of 526mn bbl, output of 42,700b/d,<br />
refining capacity of 70,000b/d and a retail network of 255 stations in eastern Russia. During FY09, <strong>the</strong><br />
company <strong>report</strong>ed revenues of US$1.73bn and net profit of US$345mn. Revenues were down from<br />
US$2.72bn in 2008, while profits were up from US$45.97mn in <strong>the</strong> previous year.<br />
O<strong>the</strong>rs – Summary<br />
Spanish major Repsol YPF is <strong>report</strong>edly in talks with Rosneft about acquiring a 25% stake in <strong>the</strong><br />
Sakhalin-III project.<br />
AIM-listed Urals Energy is a sizeable independent focused on East Siberia. By early-2008 <strong>the</strong> company<br />
held P2 reserves of 822mn boe. However, following <strong>the</strong> collapse of a loan restructuring deal with<br />
Sberbank in <strong>the</strong> wake of <strong>the</strong> global financial crisis, Urals was forced to agree to divest to Sberbank its<br />
stakes in key Taas Yuriakh Neftegazodobycha and Dulisma operating units in mid-2009 as part of <strong>the</strong><br />
loan repayment deal. The company’s future now looks uncertain with a hostile takeover or liquidation<br />
being a large threat. Its shares were suspended from AIM in July 2009. Ural’s aim to raise output to<br />
75,000b/d by 2013 is no longer feasible. In November 2007 Urals acquired a 35.5% in Taas, in what was<br />
at <strong>the</strong> time one of <strong>the</strong> largest deals by a Russian-based independent.<br />
PetroVietnam is seeking government approval to invest US$614mn in an <strong>oil</strong> E&P JV with Zarubezhneft.<br />
The partners were awarded four <strong>oil</strong> blocks in western Siberia in May 2008, beating <strong>the</strong> only o<strong>the</strong>r bidder,<br />
Rosneft. Russia and Vietnam signed an agreement to deepen E&P cooperation in 2006. The agreement<br />
was implemented through <strong>the</strong> award of <strong>the</strong> licences in Yamal-Nenets and also extends <strong>the</strong> life of <strong>the</strong><br />
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companies' first JV, Vietnam-based Vietsovpetro. PetroVietnam would have a 49% stake in <strong>the</strong><br />
US$1.25bn JV, which will explore blocks N1, N2, N3 and N4 in Nenets. The blocks currently consist of<br />
13 fields and hold estimated <strong>oil</strong> reserves of around 572mn bbl. According to Zarubezhneft, <strong>the</strong> partners<br />
were planning to start drilling at <strong>the</strong> fields by end-2008 and expect to produce 80,365-100,457b/d within<br />
five to seven years. Zarubezhneft, which controls a 51% stake in <strong>the</strong> JV, will provide <strong>the</strong> remainder of <strong>the</strong><br />
capital.<br />
In December 2009, PetroVietnam also established a <strong>gas</strong> partnership with Gazprom, <strong>the</strong> 49:51<br />
Gazpromviet, again mirroring a sister JV in Vietnam. The new JV will jointly develop <strong>the</strong> Nagumanov<br />
field in <strong>the</strong> Urals region.<br />
Japan's Mitsubishi and Mitsui are interested in acquiring stakes in <strong>the</strong> Sakhalin-III project in Russia's Far<br />
East, according to a <strong>report</strong> in Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun citing unnamed industry sources.<br />
The Japanese companies already hold 10% and 12.5% stakes respectively in <strong>the</strong> adjacent Sakhalin-II<br />
project, which supplies LNG to Japan. Their intention to farm in to <strong>the</strong> Gazprom-led Sakhalin-III<br />
development is <strong>the</strong>refore believed to be motivated by <strong>the</strong> expected cost synergies with Sakhalin-II and a<br />
desire to secure additional <strong>gas</strong> supplies.<br />
In October 2009, AIM-listed Matra Petroleum spudded its first appraisal well at <strong>the</strong> Sokolovskoe field<br />
in <strong>the</strong> Arkhangelovskoe licence in <strong>the</strong> Orenburg region of <strong>the</strong> Urals. The A-13 well is estimated to cost<br />
around US$4.5mn and is expected to be completed by <strong>the</strong> end of February 2010.<br />
Western Siberia-focused independent Exillon Energy launched a successful US$100mn IPO on AIM in<br />
December 2009, making it <strong>the</strong> first share offering by a Russian <strong>oil</strong> producer since <strong>the</strong> start of <strong>the</strong> financial<br />
crisis in mid-2008. Exillon, which is registered in <strong>the</strong> Isle of Man and headquartered in Dubai, acquired<br />
its first assets in early 2009, receiving permits for 10 <strong>oil</strong> fields in north-western Siberia. Its operations are<br />
split between two subsidiaries: Exillon TP, which operates five fields in <strong>the</strong> Timan-Pechora Basin in <strong>the</strong><br />
Komi Republic and Exillon WS, which operates ano<strong>the</strong>r five fields in Khanty-Mansiysk. The Exillon WS<br />
and TP fields were discovered in 1971 and 1988 respectively and are both producing an unspecified small<br />
amount of light <strong>oil</strong>. Despite <strong>the</strong> fields' long production history, Exillon believes <strong>the</strong> assets hold significant<br />
upside potential and is seeking to raise funds for <strong>the</strong>ir development through an IPO.<br />
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Market Attractiveness Analysis<br />
Russia Energy Market Overview<br />
The June 2009 BP Statistical Review of World Energy attributes 79.0bn bbl of proven <strong>oil</strong> reserves to<br />
Russia, which is a possibly conservative total that still represents almost 7% of <strong>the</strong> world's <strong>oil</strong>. However,<br />
<strong>the</strong> end-2009 Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) annual survey suggests just 60bn bbl. Large parts of Russia are<br />
under-explored, while <strong>the</strong>re appears to be significant reserves potential in its share of <strong>the</strong> Caspian Sea.<br />
Gas reserves of 43,302bcm (BP data) account for more than 30% of <strong>the</strong> world total.<br />
In 2009, <strong>oil</strong> production was around 11.6% of <strong>the</strong> world's total at an estimated 10.15mn b/d, and Russia<br />
meets 22% of <strong>the</strong> world's <strong>gas</strong> demand. There are 42 <strong>oil</strong> refineries in Russia, many of which are incapable<br />
of meeting modern fuel standards. Total crude distillation capacity is around 5.55mn b/d. With 157bn<br />
tonnes of proven coal reserves, Russia ranks second in <strong>the</strong> world behind <strong>the</strong> US.<br />
Poor management during <strong>the</strong> Soviet era and a sharp decline in demand during <strong>the</strong> early 1990s undermined<br />
<strong>the</strong> coal industry. After a slight decline in 2002, production rebounded in 2003-2008, with 2008 output of<br />
327mn tonnes. According to <strong>the</strong> government's energy strategy, Russia should produce more than 400mn<br />
tonnes by 2020. Russia's adherence to <strong>the</strong> stipulations of <strong>the</strong> Kyoto Protocol may lower utility sector<br />
demand for coal. In a December 2008 BBC interview, <strong>the</strong> governor of <strong>the</strong> Kemerovo region, which is<br />
responsible for over half of <strong>the</strong> country's coal production, voiced concerns over <strong>the</strong> region's ability to<br />
sustain coal production growth. He noted that <strong>the</strong> region had already seen almost 200 rivers ruined after<br />
being used for mining activities. These environmental problems may hinder Russia's desire to keep<br />
increasing coal production.<br />
Gas is <strong>the</strong> dominant fuel in Russia, accounting for an estimated 56.2% of 2009 primary energy demand<br />
(PED). It is followed by <strong>oil</strong> at 18.3%, coal at 14.4%, hydro at 5.6% and nuclear with a 5.3% share of<br />
PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,543mn toe by 2014, representing 17.0% growth over<br />
<strong>the</strong> period. Russia's estimated 2009 market share of 50.4% is set to fall to 49.7% by 2014. State <strong>gas</strong><br />
monopoly Gazprom provides subsidised <strong>gas</strong> to <strong>the</strong> power industry through a deal with former monopoly<br />
supplier Unified Energy System (UES), meaning that price increases as part of a deregulation<br />
programme could make <strong>gas</strong> too costly for much of <strong>the</strong> Russian population.<br />
Russia's power sector includes more than 440 <strong>the</strong>rmal and hydro-power plants (approximately 80 of <strong>the</strong><br />
former are coal-fired), plus 31 nuclear reactors. A few generators in <strong>the</strong> far-eastern part of <strong>the</strong> country are<br />
not connected to <strong>the</strong> power grid. The system has a total electric generation capacity of almost 216<br />
gigawatts (GW), with 2009 generation at an estimated 984TWh. The collapse of <strong>the</strong> Soviet Union initially<br />
precipitated a dramatic decline in energy generation, (down 18% between 1992 and 1999), followed by a<br />
gradual recovery (up 18% between 2000 and 2009).<br />
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The Russian government has stated that it intends to expand <strong>the</strong> role of nuclear and hydro-power<br />
generation in <strong>the</strong> future to allow for greater export of fossil fuels. Russia has an installed nuclear capacity<br />
of more than 21GW, distributed across 31 operational nuclear reactors at 10 locations, all west of <strong>the</strong> Ural<br />
Mountains. However, Russia's nuclear power facilities are ageing. Half of <strong>the</strong> country's nuclear reactors<br />
use <strong>the</strong> RBMK design employed in Ukraine's ill-fated Chernobyl plant. The working life of a reactor is<br />
considered to be 30 years -- and nine of Russia's plants are between 26 and 30 years old, with a fur<strong>the</strong>r six<br />
approaching 25 years of age.<br />
The Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy predicts that by 2020 nuclear generation could reach 300TWh,<br />
more than double <strong>the</strong> 2003 level. However, many plants are due for decommissioning, and meeting this<br />
target will require between US$5bn and US$10bn per year of investment over <strong>the</strong> next decade.<br />
Russia has adopted <strong>the</strong> European Emissions Standards for fuels, although on a different timeframe.<br />
Russia phased out Euro-2 standard fuels in 2008 and hopes to phase out Euro-3 by <strong>the</strong> end of 2009. Euro-<br />
4 is expected to be allowed until 2013. In Europe, Euro-5 has already been introduced for most vehicles<br />
and Euro-6 is slated for implementation in 2014/2015 for all vehicles. This means that while upgrades to<br />
facilities are particularly important when <strong>the</strong> refined products are destined for export to <strong>the</strong> EU, even fuels<br />
used in Russia will need to meet higher quality standards.<br />
Russia's newest crude <strong>oil</strong> export terminal, <strong>the</strong> port of Kozmino, began operations in December 2009. The<br />
port sent its first cargo to Hong Kong. The <strong>oil</strong> exported via Kozmino port is sourced from East Siberia. It<br />
is transported to Kozmino from <strong>the</strong> Meget railway terminal, in <strong>the</strong> Irkutsk region. From <strong>the</strong>re it is sent to<br />
<strong>the</strong> Skovorodino <strong>oil</strong> terminal, which started operations in October 2009. Kozmino terminal, which is<br />
operated by national <strong>oil</strong> midstream monopoly Transneft, is intended to be <strong>the</strong> terminus of <strong>the</strong> Eastern<br />
Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline, which is due to be completed in 2014-15. The Skovorodino <strong>oil</strong><br />
terminal is <strong>the</strong> end point of Phase 1 of <strong>the</strong> ESPO pipeline, but Kozmino will receive <strong>oil</strong> delivered by rail<br />
from Skovorodino until <strong>the</strong> second phase has been completed.<br />
Russia may relax rules limiting offshore exploration and production (E&P) in <strong>the</strong> country to Rosneft and<br />
Gazprom, according to a <strong>report</strong> by <strong>the</strong> Moscow Times newspaper. According to <strong>the</strong> <strong>report</strong>, which cited<br />
deputy energy minister Sergei Donskoy, <strong>the</strong> proposal would allow subsidiaries of <strong>the</strong> two companies to<br />
join <strong>the</strong>m in offshore exploration and could lead to international <strong>oil</strong> companies (IOCs) also becoming<br />
involved.<br />
In <strong>the</strong> Moscow Times article, published in March 2010, Donskoy claimed that <strong>the</strong> Natural Resources and<br />
Environment Ministry believes <strong>the</strong> two companies have insufficient resources to develop Russia's<br />
continental shelf on <strong>the</strong>ir own. Under a plan drafted by <strong>the</strong> ministry, both Gazprom and Rosneft would be<br />
allowed to share access with <strong>the</strong>ir subsidiaries and could farm out a stake of up to 50% in offshore<br />
projects to foreign companies. The proposal would also allow any of <strong>the</strong> subsidiaries of <strong>the</strong> two<br />
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companies to develop offshore fields on <strong>the</strong>ir own or in partnership with o<strong>the</strong>r companies. The newspaper<br />
<strong>report</strong>ed, however, that it is unclear whe<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> proposal has been submitted to <strong>the</strong> Russian cabinet.<br />
Under legislation passed in 2008, offshore fields in Russia can only be developed by companies in which<br />
<strong>the</strong> government owns a stake of 50% or greater. In addition, companies applying to work on <strong>the</strong> fields<br />
must have a five-year record of working on such projects, effectively limiting participation to Gazprom<br />
and Rosneft. It is arguable that this has damaged Russian investment in offshore areas. In 2008, <strong>the</strong> two<br />
companies invested only RUR56.4bn (US$1.9bn at current rates) in E&P offshore Russia, a rate which<br />
Donskoy claimed would mean ministry targets for offshore areas would take 165 years to fulfil.<br />
The fact that offshore projects are effectively limited to just two state companies, preventing o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
Russian and international companies from participating, has slowed <strong>the</strong> development of <strong>the</strong>se areas.<br />
According to <strong>the</strong> Moscow Times, <strong>the</strong> CEO of ConocoPhillips, Jim Mulva, claimed in March 2010 that<br />
<strong>the</strong> legally-privileged position of Gazprom and Rosneft had led to slower growth for <strong>the</strong>ir privatelyowned<br />
rival Luk<strong>oil</strong>, in which Conoco holds a 20% stake (which it is reducing to 10%). If <strong>the</strong> ministry<br />
proposal is accepted, it could <strong>the</strong>refore present significant opportunities to IOCs.<br />
Russia is <strong>the</strong> major <strong>gas</strong> exporter to Europe but <strong>the</strong> reliability of its supplies in <strong>the</strong> past few years been<br />
causing concern, thanks to pricing disputes with transit states such as Ukraine, frequent pipeline incidents<br />
and <strong>the</strong> capriciousness of <strong>the</strong> Russian wea<strong>the</strong>r. The Kremlin sees Asia <strong>the</strong> future source of export growth,<br />
but <strong>gas</strong> pipeline projects to <strong>the</strong> east of <strong>the</strong> Ural Mountains remain in <strong>the</strong> planning stages.<br />
The country has an extensive <strong>gas</strong> export pipeline network bound for <strong>the</strong> western markets. Some of <strong>the</strong><br />
infrastructure, however, has fallen into considerable disrepair, which is most acute in <strong>the</strong> poorer Former<br />
Soviet Union (FSU) countries that now serve as transit states on <strong>the</strong> way to <strong>the</strong> EU. In order to diversify<br />
its export routes, gain greater security of transport and maintain a closer grip on ex-communist states,<br />
Russia has been looking to construct new pipelines bypassing Eastern Europe.<br />
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Oil & Gas Infrastructure<br />
Oil Refineries<br />
With a total processing capacity of 5.62mn b/d in 2009 according to <strong>the</strong> BP Statistical Review, Russia is<br />
<strong>the</strong> world’s third largest refiner after <strong>the</strong> US and China. Although <strong>the</strong> vast majority of this capacity dates<br />
from Soviet times, <strong>the</strong> country’s largest players such as Rosneft have invested in upgrading <strong>the</strong>ir facilities<br />
to meet stringent fuels quality standards, allowing many companies to export refined products,<br />
particularly diesel, to <strong>the</strong> EU. Russia has also followed suit in mandating cleaner fuels, introducing Euro-<br />
4 standards at <strong>the</strong> start of 2010 and preparing for <strong>the</strong> introduction of Euro-5 standards at <strong>the</strong> start of 2014.<br />
Refineries in Russia are mostly located west of <strong>the</strong> Urals, although significant capacity exists in Siberia –<br />
particularly West Siberia – along major pipelines. The country’s major refining centre is in <strong>the</strong> Volga-<br />
Urals regions around <strong>the</strong> Republics of Tatarstan and Bashkiria. Large refining cities include Ufa, <strong>the</strong><br />
capital of Bashkiria, Samara and, fur<strong>the</strong>r to <strong>the</strong> west, Yaroslavl.<br />
Rosneft is <strong>the</strong> largest player in <strong>the</strong> Russian refining sector, with seven major refineries, a total capacity of<br />
1.13mn b/d and a market share of nearly 21%. O<strong>the</strong>r major companies involved in refining include<br />
Gazprom Neft with 964,000b/d (18%), Luk<strong>oil</strong> with 894,000b/d (16%) and TNK-BP with 560,000b/d<br />
(10%). There are also several slightly smaller refiners such as Surgutneftegaz, Bashneftekhim and<br />
Tatneft, as well as a small number of companies operating individual plants. Almost all refiners in Russia<br />
also control upstream assets, allowing companies to supply <strong>the</strong>ir own refineries through Transneft’s<br />
pipeline systems. The few companies that do not have upstream involvement generally operate plants of<br />
less than 50,000b/d, a category that toge<strong>the</strong>r accounts for around 115,000b/d of Russian capacity.<br />
Ryazan Refinery: TNK-BP’s Ryazan facility is <strong>the</strong> company’s largest and most up-to-date refinery, with<br />
a nameplate capacity of 340,000b/d. As part of its wider downstream expansion plans, <strong>the</strong> company is<br />
investing US$150mn in <strong>the</strong> construction of an isomerisation unit at <strong>the</strong> plant. Following <strong>the</strong> introduction<br />
of tighter regulation regarding <strong>the</strong> lifecycle of road bitumen in 2010, TNK-BP looks likely to increase<br />
investment at <strong>the</strong> plant, which can produce <strong>the</strong> company’s polymer-modified TNK Alfabit brand of<br />
premium bitumen.<br />
Komsomolsk Refinery: Rosneft’s Komsomolsk refinery in Russia’s Far East is supplied with crude <strong>oil</strong><br />
by rail from Western Siberia, over 2,000km away, as well as by pipeline from Sakhalin from Rosneft<br />
subsidiary Sakhalinmorneftegaz. The motor and jet fuels produced by <strong>the</strong> refinery are currently exported<br />
to Japan, South Korea and Vietnam via <strong>the</strong> Nakhodka tanker terminal and <strong>the</strong> Vanino tanker terminal.<br />
Planned Additional Capacity: In June 2007, Rosneft CEO Sergei Bogdanchikov announced plans to<br />
expand <strong>the</strong> company's refining capacity ninefold by 2015. Rosneft is currently upgrading its Tuapse and<br />
Komsomolsk refineries and said in 2008 that it was looking into constructing a new 240,000b/d plant near<br />
<strong>the</strong> port of Primorsk in Russia’s Far East, in partnership with Surgutneftegaz. <strong>Report</strong>s in October 2009<br />
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suggested that <strong>the</strong> company was considering developing a 400,000b/d refinery in <strong>the</strong> Primorskiy region<br />
with China’s Sinopec. New generation plants making products compatible with European standards allow<br />
<strong>the</strong> company to export any surplus and position it well for <strong>the</strong> eventual tightening of transport pollution<br />
emissions in Russia.<br />
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Table: Refineries Of 50,000b/d Capacity Or Greater In Russia<br />
Refinery Capacity (b/d) Owner (Contractor) Completed Details<br />
Angarsk 385,176 Rosneft 1955 Uses West Siberian Crude<br />
Kstovo 359,200 Luk<strong>oil</strong> 1958<br />
Ryazan 340,000 TNK BP 1960<br />
Kirishi (Kinef) 335,900 Surgutneftegaz 1966<br />
Yaroslavl (Yanos) 290,000 Slavneft<br />
Omsk 286,160 Gazprom Neft 1955<br />
Novo Ufa 285,000 Bashneftekhim 1951<br />
Perm 279,142 Luk<strong>oil</strong> 1958<br />
Moscow 242,995 Sibir Energy 1938 Operating at 200,000b/d<br />
Ufa 234,962 Bashneftekhim 1937<br />
Syzran 214,076 Rosneft 1942<br />
Volgograd 200,000 Luk<strong>oil</strong> 1957<br />
Ufaneftekhim 184,200 Bashneftekhim<br />
Salavat 168,300 Gazprom 1954<br />
Novokubishevsk 160,720 Rosneft 1951<br />
Komsomolsk 146,657 Rosneft 1942<br />
Achinsk 140,640 Rosneft 1982<br />
Cracking Saratov 134,387 Sidanco 1934<br />
Samara-Kubishev 130,585 Rosneft 1945 Uses Rosneft crudes<br />
Orsk 132,594 TNK BP 1935<br />
Saratov 130,000 TNK BP 1934<br />
Ukhta 126,518 Luk<strong>oil</strong><br />
Nizhnekamsk 120,493 Tatneft 2002<br />
Tuapse 104,468 Rosneft 1929 Specialises in motor fuels<br />
Khabarovsk 94,000 Alyans Group<br />
Nizhnevartovsk 84,000 TNK BP 1998<br />
O<strong>the</strong>rs 115,971 - - 15 sub-50,000b/d refineries<br />
Total Capacity 5,423,540 - - -<br />
Planned Additional Capacity<br />
Primorsk 240,000 Rosneft 2014 With Surgutneftegaz<br />
Source: BMI<br />
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Oil Terminals/Ports<br />
The country's biggest Baltic Sea port is located in Primorsk, with additional ports in St. Petersburg and<br />
Vysotsk. Additional export capacity is located at <strong>the</strong> Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, Russia’s second<br />
largest <strong>oil</strong> export facility. The Pacific port of Kozmino was completed in December 2009, to become<br />
Russia's third largest <strong>oil</strong> export facility.<br />
Primorsk<br />
Primorsk, near St Petersburg, was completed in 2001 and exports around 1.5mn b/d, according to <strong>the</strong><br />
EIA, although it claims export capacity of around 3mn b/d. The terminal exports refined products as well<br />
as crude, with Transnefteproduct beginning shipments in 2008.<br />
Novorossiysk<br />
The port of Novorossiysk is Russia’s main Black Sea port for <strong>oil</strong>, exporting Russian crude and <strong>oil</strong><br />
delivered by pipeline from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. According to <strong>the</strong> EIA, around 1mn b/d of Russian<br />
crude is exported via <strong>the</strong> Black Sea (mainly through Novorossiysk), <strong>the</strong>n sent through <strong>the</strong> Bosphorus to<br />
<strong>the</strong> Mediterranean. In June 2010, Transneft claimed that two plans had been developed to reduce or cease<br />
<strong>oil</strong> exports via <strong>the</strong> Bosphorus in order to provide customers for <strong>the</strong> Samsun-Ceyhan <strong>oil</strong> pipeline.<br />
Kozmino<br />
Russia's newest crude <strong>oil</strong> export terminal, <strong>the</strong> port of Kozmino, began operations in December 2009. The<br />
port sent its first cargo to Hong Kong, underlining its focus on catering for Asian demand. Kozmino<br />
exports East Siberian crude that is transported from <strong>the</strong> Meget railway terminal in <strong>the</strong> Irkutsk region to<br />
<strong>the</strong> Skovorodino <strong>oil</strong> terminal, which started operations in October 2009. The Kozmino terminal, which is<br />
operated by national <strong>oil</strong> midstream monopoly Transneft, is intended to be <strong>the</strong> terminus of <strong>the</strong> Eastern<br />
Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline, which is due to be completed in 2014-15. The Skovorodino <strong>oil</strong><br />
terminal is <strong>the</strong> endpoint of Phase 1 of <strong>the</strong> ESPO pipeline, but Kozmino will receive <strong>oil</strong> delivered by rail<br />
from Skovorodino until <strong>the</strong> second phase has been completed. Each railway <strong>oil</strong> cargo will hold 4,600-<br />
4,800 tonnes (33,700-35,200bbl), according to ESPO's website.<br />
Oil Pipelines<br />
The port of Kozmino is a vital part of Russia's Asia Pacific economic strategy. Located in <strong>the</strong> Sea of<br />
Japan, it offers links to <strong>the</strong> main regional consumers: Japan, South Korea and China. The port will<br />
provide an outlet to <strong>oil</strong> producers in East Siberia, including Rosneft, Surgutneftegaz and TNK-BP. Once<br />
<strong>the</strong> ESPO pipeline is extended to Kozmino, <strong>the</strong> port will play a major role in Russia's energy export<br />
sector.<br />
East Siberia Pacific Ocean (ESPO)<br />
Once completed, <strong>the</strong> 4,700km ESPO pipeline will overtake <strong>the</strong> Europe-bound Druzhba (Friendship),<br />
making it <strong>the</strong> world’s longest <strong>oil</strong> pipeline. Transneft’s ESPO will be <strong>the</strong> first Russian pipeline<br />
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transporting <strong>oil</strong> to Asia. The pipeline has experienced serious delays due to construction difficulties,<br />
environmental concerns and price disputes, but received a much-needed boost from a US$10bn Chinese<br />
loan in February 2009.<br />
ESPO is being built in two stages. The first 2,757km stage will link Taishet in <strong>the</strong> Irkutsk region to<br />
Skovorodino in <strong>the</strong> Amur region and has capacity of 600,000b/d. From Skovorodino, ESPO will branch<br />
out to China, via a 70km connector, which will supply nor<strong>the</strong>rn China with 300,000b/d from 2011. The<br />
first section of <strong>the</strong> pipeline had to be moved to 400km away from <strong>the</strong> ecologically sensitive Lake Baikal,<br />
missing <strong>the</strong> end-2008 deadline by a year and coming online in late-2009.<br />
The second leg of ESPO will cover 2,100km from Skovorodino to Kozmino on <strong>the</strong> Pacific and will<br />
increase <strong>the</strong> capacity of <strong>the</strong> entire pipeline to 1.6mn b/d. The second phase is not expected to be<br />
completed until 2014/2015. ESPO will be supplied primarily by Russian <strong>oil</strong> companies Rosneft, TNK-<br />
BP and Surgutneftegaz from untapped fields in East Siberia. It is hoped that this will allow Russia to<br />
replace dwindling output from West Siberia. Until ESPO Phase 2 comes online, <strong>oil</strong> from Skovorodino is<br />
transported by rail to <strong>the</strong> Pacific port of Kozmino for export.<br />
On August 29 2010, Vladimir Putin officially inaugurated <strong>the</strong> Russian section of <strong>the</strong> ESPO pipeline spur<br />
from Skovorodino to <strong>the</strong> Chinese city of Daqing. The 70km pipeline will run to <strong>the</strong> Chinese border,<br />
where it will connect with <strong>the</strong> 927km Chinese section of <strong>the</strong> spur, whose construction was completed in<br />
June 2010. The pipeline is expected onstream by October 31 2010, and will supply CNPC with<br />
300,000b/d in 2011-2030.<br />
Purpe-Samotlor<br />
Transneft began constructing a new major link from <strong>the</strong> Yamal Autonomous District in March 2009. The<br />
430km Purpe-Samotlor pipeline will provide a better export route from crude volumes from <strong>the</strong> giant<br />
Vankor <strong>oil</strong> field and will speed up <strong>the</strong> development of o<strong>the</strong>r deposits in <strong>the</strong> Yamal and north-western<br />
Krasnoyarsk regions. The pipeline will run from <strong>the</strong> village of Purpe to <strong>the</strong> Samotlor <strong>oil</strong> field in <strong>the</strong><br />
Khanty-Mansiysk region fur<strong>the</strong>r south. The link will cost US$1.34bn and is due to be commissioned in<br />
2012. Initial capacity will be 500,000b/d, which could be expanded at a later date.<br />
The Purpe-Samotlor pipeline will replace <strong>the</strong> longer and smaller-diameter lines for transporting Vankor<br />
crude. The new link will cut about 100km from Vankor's route to ESPO trunkline. As well as providing<br />
transit capacity for fur<strong>the</strong>r expansion at Vankor, it will benefit TNK-BP's Suzun, Tagul and Russkoe field<br />
developments on <strong>the</strong> Yamal peninsula.<br />
Baltic Pipeline System<br />
The Baltic Pipeline System (BPS) has two phases: BPS-1 and BPS-2. The pipelines transport <strong>oil</strong> from<br />
West Siberia and <strong>the</strong> far north of <strong>the</strong> country to <strong>the</strong> Baltic Sea terminal of Primorsk. The pipeline system<br />
began operations in 2001 and reached its full design capacity in 2006. Construction of a second phase of<br />
<strong>the</strong> network, known as BPS-2, started in June 2009. The pipeline was designed to expand <strong>the</strong> existing<br />
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system and bypass Belarus, which was involved in <strong>oil</strong> transit disputes with Russia in 2006 and 2010. The<br />
1,016km-long BPS-2 pipeline will transport some 1mn b/d of <strong>oil</strong> from Unecha, close to <strong>the</strong> border with<br />
Belarus, to Ust-Luga and from <strong>the</strong>re <strong>the</strong> crude will be transported on by tanker. The construction of <strong>the</strong><br />
pipeline is expected to be completed in 2012 at a cost of around US$3.9bn.<br />
The construction of <strong>the</strong> new pipeline demonstrates Russia's strategy of diversifying its <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> export<br />
infrastructure, bypassing its traditional transit countries – Belarus, Poland and Ukraine. The pipeline's<br />
construction was not welcomed by <strong>the</strong>se transit countries, whose positions will be weakened as <strong>the</strong> new<br />
pipeline allows Russia to supply more <strong>oil</strong> directly to Western Europe. Once <strong>the</strong> BPS-2 pipeline becomes<br />
operational, Russia is likely to reduce supplies through <strong>the</strong> Druzhba <strong>oil</strong> pipeline.<br />
Druzhba<br />
The Druzhba pipeline, one of Russia’s main <strong>oil</strong> export routes, was completed in 1964 and currently has a<br />
capacity of around 1.4mn b/d. The Russian section of <strong>the</strong> pipeline begins in <strong>the</strong> Republic of Tatarstan,<br />
which serves as a ga<strong>the</strong>ring point for <strong>oil</strong> from o<strong>the</strong>r regions and from Kazakhstan. The pipeline runs west<br />
to Unecha in Bryansk Province where it splits into two.<br />
A spur known as <strong>the</strong> Nor<strong>the</strong>rn Druzhba continues north through Belarus and Lithuania where it formerly<br />
supplied <strong>the</strong> Novopolotsk and Orlen Lietuva (Mažeikių) refineries and <strong>the</strong> Ventspils and Butinge <strong>oil</strong><br />
terminals. The Nor<strong>the</strong>rn Druzhba pipeline was closed in 2006 when Russia claimed it had been damaged.<br />
It has not yet been repaired. The main Druzhba pipeline continues to Mozyr in Belarus, where it splits<br />
into <strong>the</strong> Western Druzhba, with a capacity of up to 1mn b/d, and <strong>the</strong> 1.2mn b/d Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Druzhba.<br />
LNG Terminals<br />
Western Druzhba crosses Poland and <strong>the</strong>n runs into Germany, while Sou<strong>the</strong>rn Druzhba leads into Ukraine<br />
and from <strong>the</strong>re into central and south-eastern Europe. The presence of a large number of transit countries<br />
has led to risks of disruption to supply, particularly in Belarus, which has been in dispute with Russia<br />
over energy imports several times.<br />
Sakhalin-II<br />
Russia’s first LNG export terminal, Sakhalin-II, came onstream in March 2009. The second major area<br />
for LNG is <strong>the</strong> Barents Sea and <strong>the</strong> Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region. The most advanced project is <strong>the</strong><br />
offshore Shtokman field, which is being developed by Gazprom in partnership with French major Total<br />
and Norway’s Stat<strong>oil</strong>. The project, which will supply pipeline <strong>gas</strong> to Europe and LNG to Europe and<br />
North America, has estimated costs of US$30bn. Some 70-80% of <strong>the</strong> LNG will be sold under long-term<br />
contracts, with Spain a likely buyer. A consortium led by Norway’s Aker Solutions won <strong>the</strong> EUR25mn<br />
FEED contract for <strong>the</strong> floating production unit (FPU) at Shtokman in February 2009. Italy’s Technip is<br />
undertaking <strong>the</strong> FEED for <strong>the</strong> onshore <strong>gas</strong> facilities including <strong>the</strong> LNG plant.<br />
Shtokman LNG (Planned)<br />
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With an estimated 3.2tcm of <strong>gas</strong> reserves, Shtokman is believed to be <strong>the</strong> biggest undeveloped offshore<br />
<strong>gas</strong> field in <strong>the</strong> world. The field is being developed by SDC, in which Norway's Stat<strong>oil</strong> holds a 24%<br />
stake, France's Total has 25% and Gazprom <strong>the</strong> remaining 51%. Gas produced in <strong>the</strong> third development<br />
phase of <strong>the</strong> Shtokman <strong>gas</strong> field will be exported solely as LNG, while about half <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> produced at <strong>the</strong><br />
field during phases one and two will be exported via pipelines and half as LNG. First <strong>gas</strong> is expected to<br />
be exported via pipeline to Europe in 2013, with LNG exports to follow in 2014. Increasing <strong>the</strong><br />
proportion of <strong>gas</strong> that is exported in <strong>the</strong> form of LNG will provide more export options.<br />
Total announced in May 2010 that its plans for <strong>the</strong> development of <strong>the</strong> Shtokman natural <strong>gas</strong> field in <strong>the</strong><br />
Barents Sea in Russia are on course, and an FID is due in 2011. The investment decision will be made in<br />
March 2011 and a decision on <strong>the</strong> <strong>gas</strong> liquefaction plans will be made by <strong>the</strong> end of <strong>the</strong> same year.<br />
Yamal LNG (Planned)<br />
Yamal LNG, a JV between Gazprom and Novatek, is <strong>the</strong> operator of <strong>the</strong> LNG project aiming to<br />
commercialise <strong>the</strong> Tambeyskoe group of fields. Through its controlling stake in <strong>the</strong> Yamal LNG<br />
operating vehicle, Novatek is <strong>the</strong> operator of <strong>the</strong> South (Yuzhno)-Tambeyskoe <strong>gas</strong> field onshore <strong>the</strong><br />
Yamal-Nenets region, which is expected to begin exporting <strong>gas</strong> by around 2018. Although no firm project<br />
timetable has been set, Gazprom has previously said that it aims to start producing <strong>the</strong> first 15bcm of <strong>gas</strong><br />
in Yamal by 2011 and <strong>the</strong>n to gradually boost volumes to an ambitious 250bcm per year.<br />
Novatek is in no hurry to bring a foreign partner into <strong>the</strong> project, <strong>the</strong> company's CEO told Reuters in a<br />
July 8 interview. A number of IOCs as well as <strong>the</strong> government of Qatar have made overtures to Novatek<br />
about joining <strong>the</strong> Yamal LNG scheme. Novatek and its minority partner Gazprom, however, have so far<br />
resisted bringing in such a partner.<br />
Pechora LNG (Planned)<br />
Russian investment company Alltech Group is considering building an LNG export plant in <strong>the</strong> Nenets<br />
district. The plant, dubbed Pechora LNG, would have an initial capacity of 2.6mn tpa and is expected<br />
onstream in Q415, Alltech’s <strong>oil</strong> arm, CH-Oil & Gaz, stated in December 2009. The plant would<br />
commercialise <strong>gas</strong> reserves at <strong>the</strong> Kumzhinskoe and Korovinskoe fields in <strong>the</strong> Timan-Pechora Basin, <strong>the</strong><br />
licence for which Alltech acquired in 2007.<br />
Vladivostock LNG (Planned)<br />
The Japanese and Russian governments have signed a preliminary agreement to build an LNG export<br />
terminal in Vladivostok, according to a July 10 Nikkei <strong>report</strong>. According to <strong>the</strong> Nikkei <strong>report</strong>, an official<br />
agreement on construction of <strong>the</strong> plant is expected to be signed when Russian president Dmitry<br />
Medvedev attends <strong>the</strong> Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Tokyo in November. Few<br />
details of <strong>the</strong> plan have been disclosed, though <strong>the</strong> facility is expected to have a liquefaction capacity of<br />
6.9bcm, which will be delivered by pipeline from eastern Russia. First deliveries could come as early as<br />
2017, according to <strong>the</strong> <strong>report</strong>. It is as yet unclear where <strong>gas</strong> for <strong>the</strong> project will be sourced.<br />
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Gas Pipelines<br />
Blue Stream<br />
Russia’s first post-Soviet westbound pipeline system is Blue Stream, which carries <strong>gas</strong> directly to Turkey<br />
under <strong>the</strong> Black Sea. Blue Stream is a JV between Gazprom and Italy’s Eni. The US$3.4bn system<br />
consists of two pipelines that run for 1,213km from sou<strong>the</strong>rn Russia to Ankara in Turkey. The 385km<br />
subsea sections of <strong>the</strong> pipelines run from <strong>the</strong> Beregovaya compressor station in Russia to a <strong>gas</strong> terminal<br />
outside <strong>the</strong> Turkish port of Samsun. The pipelines were completed in 2004 and were officially<br />
inaugurated in 2005, since when <strong>the</strong>y have been gradually ramped up to <strong>the</strong>ir maximum capacity of<br />
16bcm per annum. It is <strong>the</strong> world's deepest underwater pipeline system and reaches a maximum depth of<br />
2,150m below <strong>the</strong> surface of <strong>the</strong> Black Sea.<br />
There has since been much talk of expanding <strong>the</strong> pipeline both geographically and in terms of capacity,<br />
including branches to Italy and <strong>the</strong> Middle East. In February 2006, Turkish energy ministry officials<br />
claimed that talks were under way between Gazprom and Turkish state-run <strong>gas</strong> distributor Botaş about<br />
extending <strong>the</strong> pipeline through Turkey to Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Cyprus in a project known as Blue<br />
Stream II. Speaking during an official visit to Turkey in June 2010, however, Putin said Israel is now<br />
likely to be excluded from <strong>the</strong> Blue Stream II project. Putin said that <strong>gas</strong> discoveries in recent years in<br />
Israel have reduced <strong>the</strong> country's future <strong>gas</strong> import projections, making an extension of <strong>the</strong> pipeline to<br />
Israel unnecessary.<br />
South Stream<br />
Emboldened by Blue Stream’s success, in November 2007 Gazprom and Eni agreed to construct a new<br />
trans-European <strong>gas</strong> pipeline that will cost <strong>the</strong> companies EUR10bn by <strong>the</strong> time it comes onstream in<br />
2013/14. The 900km South Stream pipeline is routed via <strong>the</strong> Black Sea to south-eastern Europe. In<br />
Bulgaria, <strong>the</strong> pipeline will split into a nor<strong>the</strong>rn route going to Austria via Romania and Hungary, and a<br />
sou<strong>the</strong>rn route crossing <strong>the</strong> Balkan Peninsula to Italy. The nor<strong>the</strong>rn route passes through <strong>the</strong> same<br />
countries as <strong>the</strong> 30bcm Nabucco pipeline from Turkey to Austria, which <strong>the</strong> EU is promoting in order to<br />
reduce dependence on Russia.<br />
Government officials of Bulgaria, Greece, Italy and Russia met in May 2009 to sign transit agreements<br />
for South Stream, creating separate JVs between Gazprom and <strong>the</strong> countries’ <strong>gas</strong> distribution companies.<br />
These JVs will be responsible for <strong>the</strong> design, construction and operation of <strong>the</strong> pipeline within <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
respective territories. Slovenia joined <strong>the</strong> project later that year, while Turkey agreed to let <strong>the</strong> pipeline<br />
pass under its territorial waters in return for a transit fee in August 2009. A deal between Gazprom and<br />
Eni has been signed under which <strong>the</strong> two companies have agreed to double <strong>the</strong> pipeline's capacity to<br />
63bcm. Austria now remains <strong>the</strong> last country on South Stream's preliminary route yet to sign up for <strong>the</strong><br />
project.<br />
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The South Stream was originally a 50:50 JV between Gazprom and Eni, but France’s EdF signed an MoU<br />
to take a 10% stake in November 2009. Under <strong>the</strong> agreement, EdF can buy as much as 6bcm per year.<br />
Following <strong>the</strong> finalisation of <strong>the</strong> contracts, <strong>the</strong> partners are hoping to take a FID on <strong>the</strong> project in 2010.<br />
In April 2010, EdF was awarded a larger, 20% stake, in <strong>the</strong> pipeline project. The 20% stake is to be taken<br />
equally from <strong>the</strong> two existing South Stream project partners, Gazprom and Eni. The decision was<br />
announced following discussions between Vladimir Putin and his Italian counterpart Silvio Berlusconi on<br />
April 26, according to a <strong>report</strong> by The Moscow Times. Putin, who declared <strong>the</strong> granting of a 20% stake to<br />
EdF, added that a partnership deal would be signed between EdF, Gazprom and Eni during <strong>the</strong> St.<br />
Petersburg International Economic Forum in June. He also said that following <strong>the</strong> signing of agreements<br />
with <strong>the</strong> Austrian government and <strong>oil</strong> company OMV on April 24, <strong>the</strong>re were now no expectations of<br />
fur<strong>the</strong>r delays to <strong>the</strong> project. Putin confirmed that <strong>the</strong> main terms for <strong>the</strong> admission of EdF to <strong>the</strong> project<br />
had been completed and that South Stream was on course for start-up in H215.<br />
Nord Stream<br />
Russia’s second major export pipeline project is Nord Stream. The 1,200km pipeline is designed to carry<br />
an eventual 55bcm annually under <strong>the</strong> Baltic Sea from Vyborg to Greifswald in Germany. The project is<br />
51% owned by Gazprom along with German partners E.ON Ruhr<strong>gas</strong> and Wintershall, each with 20%,<br />
and later Dutch entrant Gasunie with 9%. In December 2008, French energy group GDF Suez signalled<br />
its intention to participate in Nord Stream as a minority partner. After more than a year of negotiations,<br />
GDF Suez is expected to receive 4.5% each from Nord Stream's two German partners, under a letter of<br />
intent (LoI) signed in March 2010.<br />
Construction of <strong>the</strong> onshore segment began in 2005 and was completed by early-2010, while construction<br />
of <strong>the</strong> underwater segment stalled owing to ongoing environmental concerns, rising costs, technical<br />
obstacles and political objections from neighbouring states. The project, however, made major<br />
breakthroughs in late-2009, securing final approvals from transit states Sweden, Finland and Denmark.<br />
The undersea construction is now set to begin on April 1 2010. At its start-up in 2011, <strong>the</strong> pipeline will<br />
have a capacity of 27.5bcm. The second 27.5bcm phase is planned to come onstream in 2012.<br />
Russia-South Korea Gas Interconnector<br />
South Korea and Russia are expected to begin a new round of talks on a <strong>gas</strong> interconnector between <strong>the</strong><br />
countries, <strong>the</strong> head of foreign projects at Russia's state-run Gazprom, Stanislav Tsygankov, told industry<br />
data provider Platts in April 2010. Two potential <strong>gas</strong> pipeline options between Russia and South Korea<br />
are on <strong>the</strong> table: an overland pipeline via North Korea and a direct undersea pipeline. The first option<br />
suffers from severe geopolitical risks while <strong>the</strong> second option presents formidable technological and<br />
financial challenges. In November 2008, state-run Korea Gas (Ko<strong>gas</strong>) announced its intention to team up<br />
with Gazprom to build an undersea <strong>gas</strong> pipeline from Russia if plans for an overland transit through North<br />
Korea fail. With <strong>the</strong> erratic Pyongyang government under Kim Jong-il announcing periodically that it will<br />
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end all political and military agreements with Seoul, <strong>the</strong> latter option seems unfeasible, despite <strong>the</strong> north's<br />
opportunity to earn up to US$100mn a year in transit fees.<br />
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SWOT Analysis<br />
Russia Business Environment SWOT<br />
Strengths • The post-1998-crisis economic rebound, combined with significant reductions in<br />
personal and corporate income tax rates, has made Russia a much more attractive<br />
place to do business.<br />
Weaknesses • The operating environment remains hazardous on a number of fronts, with many<br />
foreign investors put off by poor legal safeguards, high levels of bureaucracy and<br />
corruption, and <strong>the</strong> Kremlin's apparently politically motivated campaign against<br />
foreign <strong>oil</strong> firms.<br />
Opportunities • Despite Russia's poor investment image in <strong>the</strong> West, <strong>the</strong> benefits of its immense<br />
natural resources wealth and large and rapidly growing domestic market are<br />
significant incentives for potential foreign direct investors.<br />
• The government has made fighting corruption a key priority and we expect sweeping<br />
legislative changes to significantly enhance <strong>the</strong> capacity of corruption fighting<br />
institutions in <strong>the</strong> medium term.<br />
Threats • State influence over business is on <strong>the</strong> rise. Most recently, foreign operators in <strong>the</strong><br />
energy sector have come under pressure to allow state-owned firms greater<br />
involvement in <strong>the</strong>ir projects. Never<strong>the</strong>less, <strong>the</strong> worst-case scenario of a reversal of<br />
<strong>the</strong> 1990s privatisations appears unlikely.<br />
• Given very low confidence in <strong>the</strong> domestic banking industry, <strong>the</strong> central bank's<br />
efforts to restructure <strong>the</strong> sector could destabilise it fur<strong>the</strong>r.<br />
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Risk-Reward Ratings<br />
Business Environment Ratings<br />
Central/Eastern Europe Region<br />
The CEE region comprises 15 countries, including <strong>the</strong> new EU member states, Russia and <strong>the</strong> four<br />
leading Central Asian hydrocarbons producers. State influence remains very high, and is arguably<br />
increasing in both Russia and Kazakhstan. There has been widespread privatisation progress in <strong>the</strong> EU<br />
states, but far less movement in <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r key states. Kazakhstan's moves to take a bigger share of <strong>the</strong><br />
Kashagan project and to modify licensing laws are, we hope, an isolated example, although Russian tax<br />
tweaks, environmental claims and attempted asset re-nationalisation have undermined its already<br />
unattractive licensing and regulatory regime. Oil production growth for <strong>the</strong> period to 2014 ranges from a<br />
negative 27% for Croatia to a positive 56% in Turkmenistan, while <strong>oil</strong> demand growth ranges from 6% to<br />
31% across <strong>the</strong> region. Gas output is forecast to fall by 18% in Romania, but rise 55% in Azerbaijan. The<br />
range for forecast <strong>gas</strong> consumption growth is from 10% to 81%. The political and economic environment<br />
varies, depending partly on market maturity and EU membership.<br />
Composite Scores<br />
Composite Business Environment scores are calculated using <strong>the</strong> average of individual Upstream and<br />
Downstream ratings. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan continue to dominate <strong>the</strong> top of <strong>the</strong> regional league<br />
table, taking first and second places with respective scores of 63 and 61 points out of a possible 100.<br />
Slovenia and Uzbekistan now share <strong>the</strong> final place in <strong>the</strong> rankings, with a composite upstream and<br />
downstream score of 43 points out of <strong>the</strong> 100 available. The points spread in <strong>the</strong> CEE region is<br />
considerably narrower than elsewhere, with <strong>the</strong> lowest-ranked country having 68% of <strong>the</strong> score allocated<br />
to <strong>the</strong> highest-ranked. Russia now shares third place with Poland, but with no immediate chance of<br />
catching <strong>the</strong> two main Central Asian energy powerhouse states. Turkey, included for <strong>the</strong> first time, is a<br />
challenger for Poland's position, while Romania and Ukraine are closely matched just above <strong>the</strong> middle of<br />
<strong>the</strong> league table, ahead of Hungary and <strong>the</strong> Czech Republic with limited upstream resource potential.<br />
Slovakia and Croatia are struggling near <strong>the</strong> foot of <strong>the</strong> table, but should be able to stay in front of<br />
Slovenia and Uzbekistan.<br />
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Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating<br />
Upstream Rating<br />
Downstream<br />
Rating Composite Rating Rank<br />
Kazakhstan 73 53 63 1<br />
Azerbaijan 70 52 61 2<br />
Poland 56 58 57 3=<br />
Russia 53 60 57 3=<br />
Turkey 53 59 56 5<br />
Romania 51 53 52 6<br />
Ukraine 44 57 51 7<br />
Czech Republic 46 53 49 8<br />
Hungary 46 49 48 9<br />
Bulgaria 56 36 46 10<br />
Turkmenistan 46 44 45 11=<br />
Croatia 46 43 45 11=<br />
Slovakia 45 42 44 13<br />
Uzbekistan 46 41 43 14=<br />
Slovenia 41 44 43 14=<br />
Source: BMI. Scores are out of 100 for all categories, with 100 <strong>the</strong> highest.<br />
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Upstream Scores<br />
Kazakhstan and Slovenia are <strong>the</strong> best and worst performers in this segment, showing that <strong>the</strong> overall<br />
pecking order is somewhat different from that for combined scores. Azerbaijan is second, itself having a<br />
very useful 14-point lead over Bulgaria. Turkmenistan's hydrocarbons resources mean it has shifted<br />
fur<strong>the</strong>r from <strong>the</strong> foot of <strong>the</strong> table, having caught up with Croatia and Hungary to share eighth place.<br />
Uzbekistan has also mounted a successful challenge for mid-table status. Bulgaria and Poland are tied in<br />
third place, ahead of Turkey and Russia in joint fifth place. Long term, Russia should be able to move<br />
higher, subject to an improved country risk and licensing/regulatory environment. Ukraine has <strong>the</strong><br />
potential to challenge Slovakia for 13 th place, and should be able to keep clear of bottom-ranked Slovenia.<br />
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating<br />
Limits of Potential Returns<br />
Risks to <strong>the</strong> Realisation of<br />
Potential Returns<br />
Upstream<br />
Market<br />
Country<br />
Structure<br />
Limits<br />
Industry<br />
Risks<br />
Country<br />
Risk<br />
Risks<br />
Upstream<br />
Rating<br />
Rank<br />
Kazakhstan 80 75 79 65 47 59 73 1<br />
Azerbaijan 69 85 73 75 42 63 70 2<br />
Bulgaria 61 50 58 45 64 52 56 3=<br />
Poland 38 80 48 75 72 74 56 3=<br />
Turkey 41 65 47 70 61 67 53 5=<br />
Russia 71 30 61 30 43 35 53 5=<br />
Romania 43 55 46 65 60 63 51 7<br />
Hungary 24 80 38 60 74 65 46 8=<br />
Croatia 29 55 35 70 70 70 46 8=<br />
Turkmenistan 71 45 65 40 30 37 46 8=<br />
Uzbekistan 43 40 42 45 27 39 46 8=<br />
Czech Republic 28 70 38 55 78 63 46 8=<br />
Slovakia 24 70 35 65 74 68 45 13<br />
Ukraine 43 50 44 45 42 44 44 14<br />
Slovenia 28 60 36 40 81 54 41 15<br />
Source: BMI. Scores are out of 100 for all categories, with 100 <strong>the</strong> highest. The Upstream BE Rating is <strong>the</strong> principal rating. It<br />
comprises two sub-ratings 'Limits of Potential Returns' and 'Risks to Realisation of Returns', which have a 70% and 30% weighting<br />
respectively. In turn, <strong>the</strong> 'Limits' Rating comprises Power Sector and Country Structure, which have a 75% and 25% weighting<br />
respectively. They are based upon <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> resource base/growth outlook and sector maturity (Upstream) and <strong>the</strong> broader<br />
industry <strong>competitive</strong> environment (Country). The 'Risks' rating comprises Market Risks and Country Risk, which have a 65% and<br />
35% weighting respectively and are based on a subjective evaluation of licensing terms and liberalisation (Market) and <strong>the</strong> industry's<br />
broader Country Risk exposure (Country), which is based on BMI's proprietary Country Risk Ratings. The ratings structure is aligned<br />
across <strong>the</strong> 14 Industries for which BMI provides Business Environment Ratings methodology, and is designed to enable clients to<br />
consider each rating individually or as a composite, with <strong>the</strong> choice depending on <strong>the</strong>ir exposure to <strong>the</strong> industry in each particular<br />
state. For a list of <strong>the</strong> data/indicators used, please consult <strong>the</strong> appendix.<br />
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Russia Upstream Rating -- Overview<br />
Russia has a share of fifth place with Turkey in BMI's updated Upstream Business Environment Ratings,<br />
aided by unrivalled hydrocarbons resources. Its <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> reserves account for much of <strong>the</strong> upstream<br />
score, but licensing, privatisation and country risk factors are less impressive. Medium-term scope exists<br />
for Russia to challenge Bulgaria and Poland above it, although <strong>the</strong> major Caspian states are likely to<br />
remain out of reach.<br />
Russia Upstream Rating -- Potential Returns<br />
Upstream Market: On <strong>the</strong> basis of upstream data alone, Russia is <strong>the</strong> joint second most attractive state in<br />
<strong>the</strong> CEE region, alongside Turkmenistan. This reflects <strong>the</strong> highest-placed <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> reserves, fifthranked<br />
<strong>oil</strong> production growth outlook and <strong>gas</strong> reserves to production ratio (RPR).<br />
Country Structure: Influencing Russia's fourth-highest position in <strong>the</strong> Limits to Potential Returns<br />
section is its unenviable country structure, which takes last place, behind even Uzbekistan. The state has<br />
greater ownership of upstream assets than elsewhere in <strong>the</strong> region -- and <strong>the</strong> industry features relatively<br />
few non-state concerns.<br />
Russia Upstream Rating -- Risks To Potential Returns<br />
Industry Risks: Russia is ranked last, behind even Turkmenistan, in <strong>the</strong> Risks to Realisation of Potential<br />
Returns section of our ratings. Its last position for Industry Risks is attributable to a poor licensing<br />
environment, and limited near-term privatisation prospects.<br />
Country Risks: Russia's broader country risk environment is unexceptional and ranked 11 th behind<br />
Kazakhstan. The best, and only respectable, score is for long-term policy continuity. Physical<br />
infrastructure barely matches <strong>the</strong> regional average, while corruption is a key risk for private companies.<br />
Fur<strong>the</strong>rmore, <strong>the</strong>ir ability to operate is weakened by <strong>the</strong> country's rule of law.<br />
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Downstream Scores<br />
Russia and Bulgaria now bracket <strong>the</strong> 13 o<strong>the</strong>r CEE states in <strong>the</strong> downstream rankings, with Russia now<br />
challenged by second-placed Turkey, in spite of <strong>the</strong> size of its fuels market and refining capacity.<br />
Turkey's risk profile is substantially better and it may be able to challenge for regional leadership over <strong>the</strong><br />
medium term. Poland is just a point fur<strong>the</strong>r back and also a potential regional leader. Ukraine is now just<br />
one point behind Poland, but is unlikely to challenge it during <strong>the</strong> next few quarters. Kazakhstan, <strong>the</strong><br />
Czech Republic and Romania are squabbling over fifth place, having edged ahead of Azerbaijan.<br />
Turkmenistan is now on <strong>the</strong> same score as Slovenia and <strong>the</strong>re is little to choose between Croatia, Slovakia<br />
and Uzbekistan near <strong>the</strong> foot of <strong>the</strong> table.<br />
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating<br />
Limits of Potential Returns<br />
Risks to <strong>the</strong> Realisation of<br />
Potential Returns<br />
Downstrea<br />
m Market<br />
Country<br />
Structure<br />
Limits<br />
Industry<br />
Risks<br />
Country<br />
Risk<br />
Risks<br />
Downstrea<br />
m Rating<br />
Rank<br />
Russia 71 72 71 20 54 34 60 1<br />
Turkey 49 74 55 80 51 69 59 2<br />
Poland 40 80 50 85 61 75 58 3<br />
Ukraine 57 60 58 65 45 57 57 4<br />
Czech Republic 33 56 39 100 62 85 53 5=<br />
Kazakhstan 67 46 62 20 50 32 53 5=<br />
Romania 47 56 49 70 48 61 53 5=<br />
Azerbaijan 61 50 58 25 59 39 52 8<br />
Hungary 32 44 35 95 62 82 49 9<br />
Turkmenistan 51 26 45 40 48 43 44 10=<br />
Slovenia 26 38 29 85 70 79 44 10=<br />
Croatia 36 38 36 65 54 60 43 12<br />
Slovakia 24 40 28 85 58 74 42 13<br />
Uzbekistan 41 34 39 40 53 45 41 14<br />
Bulgaria 23 42 28 60 48 55 36 15<br />
Source: BMI. Scores are out of 100 for all categories, with 100 <strong>the</strong> highest. The Downstream BE Rating is <strong>the</strong> principal rating. It<br />
comprises two sub-ratings 'Limits of Potential Returns' and 'Risks to Realisation of Returns', which have a 70% and 30% weighting<br />
respectively. In turn, <strong>the</strong> 'Limits' Rating comprises Power Sector and Country Structure, which have a 75% and 25% weighting<br />
respectively. They are based upon <strong>the</strong> downstream refining capacity/product growth outlook/import dependence (Downstream) and <strong>the</strong><br />
broader socio-demographic and economic context (Country). The 'Risks' rating comprises Market Risks and Country Risk, which have<br />
a 60% and 40% weighting respectively and are based on a subjective evaluation of regulation and liberalisation (Market) and <strong>the</strong><br />
industry's broader Country Risk exposure (Country), which is based on BMI's proprietary Country Risk Ratings. The ratings structure is<br />
aligned across <strong>the</strong> 14 Industries for with BMI provides Business Environment Ratings methodology, and is designed to enable clients<br />
to consider each rating individually or as a composite, with <strong>the</strong> choice depending on <strong>the</strong>ir exposure to <strong>the</strong> industry in each particular<br />
state. For a list of <strong>the</strong> data/indicators used, please consult <strong>the</strong> appendix.<br />
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Russia Downstream Rating -- Overview<br />
Russia is at <strong>the</strong> top of <strong>the</strong> league table in BMI's updated Downstream Business Environment Ratings,<br />
ahead comfortably of Turkey and Poland. There are a few particularly high scores, but <strong>the</strong>re is some risk<br />
from Turkey over <strong>the</strong> longer term. There are excellent scores for refining capacity, <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> demand,<br />
population and nominal GDP.<br />
Russia Downstream Rating -- Potential Returns<br />
Downstream Market: On <strong>the</strong> basis of downstream data alone, Russia ranks first among <strong>the</strong> region's 15<br />
countries, above Kazakhstan. This is attributable to <strong>the</strong> country's first-placed refining capacity and <strong>oil</strong>/<strong>gas</strong><br />
demand, and third-ranked refining capacity growth potential.<br />
Country Structure: Russia ranks first in terms of <strong>the</strong> Limits to Potential Returns section, and its Country<br />
Structure has third place in <strong>the</strong> region, behind Turkey. Growth in GDP per capita is <strong>the</strong> second-highest for<br />
<strong>the</strong> entire region. Population and nominal GDP rank first. There is still considerable state ownership of<br />
downstream assets, and <strong>the</strong> downstream industry is only moderately <strong>competitive</strong>.<br />
Russia Downstream Rating -- Risks To Potential Returns<br />
Industry Risks: In <strong>the</strong> Risks to Realisation of Potential Returns section of our ratings, Russia is ranked<br />
second from last, ahead only of Kazakhstan. Its joint lowest score with Kazakhstan for Industry Risks<br />
reflects <strong>the</strong> harsh regulatory regime and stagnant privatisation trend.<br />
Country Risks: Its broader country risk environment is ranked equal seventh alongside Croatia. The<br />
scores for rule of law and legal framework let <strong>the</strong> country down badly, and it fares little better in terms of<br />
physical infrastructure. Operational risks for private companies are reduced by <strong>the</strong> state's high scores for<br />
short-term economic external risk, short-term economic growth risk and short-term policy continuity.<br />
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Business Development Directory<br />
Alfa Group<br />
11 Bolshoyk Savinskiy<br />
Office 351<br />
Moscow<br />
119435<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 787 0077<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 792 5235<br />
Email: info@ctf.ru<br />
Website: www.alfagroup.ru<br />
Key presonnel<br />
CIO: Mr Pavel Pestrikkov<br />
Group Portfolio Management & Control Director: Mr Vladimir Ashurkov<br />
Finance, Corporate Development & Control Director: Mr Nigel Robinson<br />
Corporate Relations Manager: Ms Natalia Dymova General Management<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1989<br />
Business Activity<br />
Alfa Group Consortium (Russia) is one of <strong>the</strong> country’s largest privately owned<br />
financial-industrial conglomerates, with interests in <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong>, commodities trading,<br />
commercial and investment banking, insurance, retail trade and telecommunications<br />
sectors.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Banking/Finance<br />
Telecoms/Communications<br />
Insurance<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
Alians Group<br />
39 Sivtsev Vrajek Per<br />
Moscow<br />
119002<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 745 5656<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 745 5658<br />
Email: ga@ga.ru<br />
Website: www.ga.ru<br />
Key presonnel<br />
President: Mr Musa Bazhaev<br />
Vice President: Mr Igor Sarajev<br />
Vice President - Finance: Mr Dmitry Markov<br />
Corporation Director: Mr Sergey Bakov<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Energy/Utilities<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
Alstom<br />
18 Schipok Street Building 2<br />
Moscow<br />
115093<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 231 2949<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 231 2945<br />
Email: info@power.alstom.com<br />
Website: www.alstom.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
President - Russia: Mr Patrick Tascal<br />
Finance Director: Mr Vincent Lery<br />
Administration Officer: Mrs Galina Nikitina<br />
Head of Information Technology: Mr Victor Nikitiuk<br />
Human Resources Manager: Ms Larisa Sukhorukikh<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1980<br />
Business Activity<br />
Alstom (Russia) has manufacturing facilities in Moscow and specialises in design and<br />
engineering of <strong>gas</strong> turbines and <strong>the</strong>ir components as well as in <strong>the</strong> full-cycle production of<br />
<strong>gas</strong> turbine blades and o<strong>the</strong>r components.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Electronics/Electrical<br />
Manufacturing<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Energy/Utilities<br />
Electric<br />
Distribution/Transport/Transmission<br />
Power Generation<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
France<br />
Subsidiary of Alstom, France<br />
Argus Ltd<br />
9 Skakovaya Street, 4/F, 4/F<br />
Moscow<br />
125040<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 741 4817<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 741 4818<br />
Email: argcis@arguslimited.com<br />
Website: www.arguslimited.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
President: Mr Michael Rae<br />
Vice President: Mr Dmitry Kanevskey<br />
General Director: Mr Anton Rae<br />
Operations Director: Mr David Lax<br />
Commercial & Marketing Director: Mr Vlad Kurbatov<br />
Head of Sales: Mr Konstantin Lyubimov<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1993<br />
Business Activity<br />
Argus Limited (Russia) supplies pipeline construction equipment and electronics repair<br />
equipment. The company also has representative offices in Krasnodar, Baku, Almaty and<br />
Ashkhabad.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Machinery/Equipment<br />
Construction/Engineering<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
USA<br />
Representative Office for Argus Limited USA, USA<br />
AT Kearney<br />
Kosmodamianskaya Naberezhnaya, 52/1<br />
Riverside Towers<br />
Moscow<br />
115054<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 258 5019<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 258 5016<br />
Email: info@atkearney.ru<br />
Website: www.atkearney.ru<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Managing Director: Mr Ruslan Korzh<br />
General Manager: Mr Alla Khaitova<br />
Head of Technical: Mr Dmitry Klur Pavlov<br />
Finance Manager: Mr Vladimir Berezhnov<br />
Marketing Manager: Miss Irna Kuzminykh<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1992<br />
Business Activity<br />
AT Kearney (Russia) provides strategic consulting services in Russia, Ukraine and o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
CIS countries.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Consultancy<br />
Telecoms/Communications<br />
Banking/Finance<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Aviation/Defence<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
USA<br />
Subsidiary of AT Kearney Inc, USA<br />
BJ Services Company<br />
M.Tirogovskaya Street<br />
House 18, Building 1, Office 403<br />
Moscow<br />
119435<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 937 9828<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 933 3635<br />
Website: www.bjservices.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Finance Controller: Mr Ronald Pinto<br />
Country Manager: Mr Brent Robert Davies<br />
Business Development Manager: Mr Ryan Elder<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Business Activity<br />
BJ Services Company (Russia) provides pumping services to <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> firms.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Services<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
USA<br />
Subsidiary of BJ Services Company USA, USA<br />
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Capital Equipment and Technology Corp<br />
(CETCO)<br />
Messengers lane., 5, p.1<br />
Moscow<br />
105005<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 232 1002<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 232 1003<br />
Email: info@cetco.ru<br />
Website: www.cetco.ru<br />
Key presonnel<br />
CEO: Mr Alexander Chudnovets Senior Management<br />
Finance Manager: Mr Aleksandr Gyzenko<br />
Head of Human Resources: Mrs Kate Tverdoxleb<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
No of Employees: 50<br />
Business Activity<br />
CETCO (Russia) represents a number of Western <strong>oil</strong>field, mining and airport equipment<br />
manufacturers. The company’s clients have included regional and national companies,<br />
including Gazprom, Gazflot, Surgutnefte<strong>gas</strong>, Tatneft, LUKOIL, Yukos and Sidanco.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Machinery/Equipment<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Mining<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
USA<br />
Chevron Lubricants CIS<br />
7 Gasheka Street<br />
Moscow<br />
123056<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 544 5556<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 544 5557<br />
Website: www.chevronlubricants.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Sales Director: Mr Ian Bennett<br />
Finance Manager: Ms Elena Kotliar<br />
Head of Legal: Miss Galina Glazkova<br />
Human Resources Manager: Mrs Anastasia Kristova<br />
Supply Chain Manager: Miss Elena Kutareva<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Petrochemicals<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Chemicals<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
USA<br />
Subsidiary of Chevron Corporation, USA<br />
Chevron Neftegaz Inc<br />
Rakhmanovsky Pereulok, 4 dom 2<br />
Moscow<br />
127051<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 258 2700<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 258 2727<br />
Email: atsm@chevron.com<br />
Website: www.chevron.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
President & General Manager: Mr Darrell Cordry<br />
Marketing Manager: Ms Sabina Abudaeva<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1991<br />
Business Activity<br />
Chevron Neftegaz Inc (Russia) is one of <strong>the</strong> largest investors in <strong>the</strong> Russian <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong><br />
infrastructure through its investment in <strong>the</strong> CPC. With a 15% equity stake, Chevron is <strong>the</strong><br />
largest private shareholder in <strong>the</strong> CPC, which was established in <strong>the</strong> early 1990s by <strong>the</strong><br />
governments of <strong>the</strong> Russian Federation, <strong>the</strong> Republic of Kazakhstan and <strong>the</strong> Sultanate<br />
of Oman. In December 1996, <strong>the</strong> governments of Russia and Kazakhstan signed <strong>the</strong><br />
CPC Restructuring Agreement, redistributing 50% of CPC’s equity shares among several<br />
private international petroleum companies.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Exploration/Extraction<br />
Machinery/Equipment<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
USA<br />
Russia<br />
Subsidiary of Chevron Corporation, USA<br />
ConocoPhillips<br />
Gasheka Sreet 6<br />
Office 1300<br />
Moscow<br />
125047<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 785 2800<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 785 2804<br />
Website: www.conocophillips.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
President: Mr Don Wallette<br />
Business Development Manager: Ms Mariana Barabanova<br />
Sales Manager: Mr Anton Mirov<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1992<br />
Business Activity<br />
ConocoPhillips (Russia) carries out upstream operations and business development.<br />
In December 1991, ConocoPhillips and Arkhangelskgeoldobycha (AGD) signed a joint<br />
venture agreement, which established <strong>the</strong> Polar Lights Company. The joint venture<br />
has also been studying a number of <strong>oil</strong> fields north of <strong>the</strong> Timan Pechora Province.<br />
ConocoPhillips is also a participant in <strong>the</strong> Shtokman Gas Condensate field in partnership<br />
with Gazprom, Rosshelf, Fortum (formerly Neste), Norsk Hydro (Norway) and Total<br />
(France).<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Chemicals<br />
Petrochemicals<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Exploration<br />
Manufacture<br />
Oil/Petroleum<br />
Exploration/Extraction<br />
Recycling/Treatment<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
USA<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Subsidiary of ConocoPhillips, USA<br />
Eni SpA<br />
Levshinskij B per., Building 1<br />
Moscow<br />
119034<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 916 5353<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 916 5351<br />
Website: www.eni.it<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Head of Representative Office: Mr Ernesto Ferlenghi<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1950<br />
Business Activity<br />
Eni SpA (Russia) specialises in <strong>the</strong> exploration and production of natural <strong>gas</strong>. In 1998,<br />
Eni and Gazprom signed a 50/50 strategic alliance agreement for <strong>the</strong> exploration,<br />
development, transportation and sale of hydrocarbons, with a special focus on natural<br />
<strong>gas</strong>. In February 1999, Gazprom and Eni signed an agreement for <strong>the</strong> joint participation<br />
in <strong>the</strong> Blue Stream Project, a 400 kilometre <strong>gas</strong> pipeline from <strong>the</strong> Russian to Turkish<br />
coasts on <strong>the</strong> Black Sea and a compressor station in Dzubga, Russia. The pipeline has a<br />
capacity of approximately 16 billion cubic metres of <strong>gas</strong> per year.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Italy<br />
Representative Office for Eni SpA, Italy<br />
Halliburton International<br />
Smolnaya ul, d. 24d<br />
Meridian Commercial Centre, 18/F<br />
Moscow<br />
125445<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 755 8300<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 755 8301<br />
Website: www.halliburton.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Executive Director: Mr Konstantin Schilin<br />
Finance Director: Mr Craig Miller<br />
Office Manager: Mrs Ludmila Mokrousova General Management<br />
Marketing Manager: Mrs Anna Dubovskaya<br />
Human Resources Manager: Mrs Varvara Nesterova<br />
Head of Information Technology: Mr Vladimir Ivakh<br />
Business Development - Account Leader: Mrs Victoria Duneva Marketing<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
No of Employees: 850<br />
Business Activity<br />
Halliburton (Russia) provides services to <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> industries. Its sister company,<br />
Halliburton KBR, is an international technology-based engineering and construction firm.<br />
Halliburton International has offices in Moscow, Nizhnevartovsk, Noyabrsk, Nefteyugansk,<br />
Usinks, Kharyaga and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Services<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Trade<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
USA<br />
Subsidiary of Halliburton Group of Companies, USA<br />
Hydro Aluminium CIS AS<br />
PO Box 161<br />
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Usachova Street 33 - 7<br />
Moscow<br />
119048<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 244 4406<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 244 3251<br />
Website: www.hydro.com<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1992<br />
Business Activity<br />
Hydro Aluminium CIS AS (Russia) specialises in aluminium, fertilisers, <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong>. The<br />
company manufactures primary aluminium and rolled products.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Chemicals<br />
Petrochemicals<br />
Manufacturing<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Agrochemicals<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Norway<br />
Subsidiary of Hydro Aluminium AS, Norway<br />
Iks-Oil Ltd<br />
Strojenie 14, Korpus 1, Office 7<br />
Nabierezhnaya Dom 7<br />
Dierbienievskaya<br />
Moscow<br />
115114<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 234 5942<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 234 5944<br />
Email: info@x-<strong>oil</strong>.ru<br />
Website: www.iks<strong>oil</strong>.ru<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Managing Director: Mr Alexander Zasypkin<br />
Sales Manager: Mr Alexander Kolesnikov<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Distributor for BP plc, United Kingdom<br />
Intari<br />
Beringa ul, d. 38<br />
St Petersburg<br />
199397<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (812) 352 0743<br />
Fax: +7 (812) 325 3757<br />
Email: sar@intari.com<br />
Website: www.intari.com<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Business Activity<br />
Intari (Russia) develops ice and marine technology. Products include integrated<br />
geographical systems Canadian company Enfotec for <strong>the</strong> exploration of <strong>the</strong> Arctic ocean,<br />
in preparation for <strong>the</strong> extraction of <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong>.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Machinery/Equipment<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
Canada<br />
Integra Group<br />
6 Prospect Vernadskogo<br />
Moscow<br />
119311<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 933 0621<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 933 0622<br />
Email: integra.info@integra.ru<br />
Website: www.integragroup.ru<br />
Key presonnel<br />
General Director: Mr Igor Voronov<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 2004<br />
No of Employees: 22000<br />
Business Activity<br />
Integra Group is a leading Russian independent provider of onshore <strong>oil</strong>field services and<br />
a leading manufacturer in Russian of drilling rigs with heavy lifting capacity, cementing<br />
equipment and specialised equipment used in <strong>the</strong> exploration, development and<br />
production of <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong>. Integra Group operates in <strong>the</strong> drilling, workover, seismic and<br />
geophysics sectors and manufactures <strong>oil</strong>field services equipment. It has <strong>oil</strong>field services<br />
operations in all major <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> producing regions in Russia and in many o<strong>the</strong>r CIS<br />
countries. Through 16 strategic acquisitions, Integra Group has become one of <strong>the</strong> leading<br />
companies in <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong>field services and equipment manufacturing sectors of <strong>the</strong> Russian<br />
market.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Manufacturing<br />
Machinery/Equipment<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
Interros<br />
9 Bolshaya Yakimanka Street<br />
Moscow<br />
119180<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 785 6363<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 726 5754<br />
Email: info@interros.ru<br />
Website: www.interros.ru<br />
Key presonnel<br />
President: Mr Valadimir Potanin<br />
CEO: Mr Sergey Barbashev<br />
Deputy CEO: Mr Guerman Aliev<br />
CFO: Mr Alexander Polevoy<br />
Managing Director: Mr Andrei Bougrov<br />
Managing Director - Investments: Mr Dmitry Kostoyev<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
No of Employees: 190000<br />
Business Activity<br />
Interros (Russia) is among <strong>the</strong> country’s largest private investment companies.<br />
Investments include nickel and gold producer MMC Norilsk Nickel, power machine<br />
producer Silovye Mashiny, private banking group Rosbank, agriculture and food<br />
processing venture APK Agros, <strong>the</strong> Interros-Dostoinstvo private pension fund, <strong>the</strong><br />
Soglasie insurance group, media group Prof-Media News and Publishing Holding, and a<br />
27.5% stake in <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> exploration group RUSIA Petroleum.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Mining<br />
Banking/Finance<br />
Machinery/Equipment<br />
Insurance<br />
Media<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
Inuctan Oy<br />
4th Rostovskiy per., d. 1, Street 2<br />
Helsinki House<br />
Moscow<br />
119121<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 937 3563<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 248 1471<br />
Email: inuctan@space.ru<br />
Website:<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Chief Representative: Mr Nikita Nikonov<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Business Activity<br />
Inuctan Oy (Russia) is a subsidiary of Autotank (Finland). The firm provides <strong>oil</strong> companies<br />
and <strong>the</strong>ir service stations with fuel sales solutions.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Trade/Supply/Distribution<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Finland<br />
ITERA Group<br />
Sevastopolsky Prospekt, 28, Building 1<br />
Building 1<br />
Moscow<br />
117209<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 411 8500<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 411 8502<br />
Email: inbox@itera.ru<br />
Website: www.iteragroup.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Vice Chairman: Mr Valery Otchertsov<br />
President: Mr Igor Viktorovich Makarov General Management<br />
Vice President - Commercial: Mr Gennady Nikolaevich Skidanov<br />
Executive Vice President: Mrs Raissa Mikhailovna Frenkel<br />
General Director: Mr Vladimir Makeyev<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1992<br />
No of Employees: 8000<br />
Business Activity<br />
ITERA Group (Russia) produces, transports and markets natural <strong>gas</strong>, which accounts<br />
for 80% of <strong>the</strong> group’s sales. The ITERA group of companies comprises 130 companies<br />
engaged in <strong>the</strong> energy, metal, construction, chemicals and o<strong>the</strong>r sectors in Russia, <strong>the</strong><br />
CIS, Baltic States, <strong>the</strong> USA, Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands and Switzerland. The company is also <strong>the</strong><br />
largest independent <strong>gas</strong> producer in Russia, operating a number of <strong>gas</strong> fields in <strong>the</strong><br />
Yamalo-Nenetz Autonomous Region.<br />
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Industry Classification<br />
Chemicals<br />
Petrochemicals<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Construction/Engineering<br />
Mining<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
LUKOIL Company<br />
11 Sretensky Boulevard<br />
Moscow<br />
101000<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 627 4444<br />
Fax: +7 (612) 5535 8578<br />
Email: webmaster@luk<strong>oil</strong>.com<br />
Website: www.luk<strong>oil</strong>.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
President: Mr Vagit Alekperov General Management<br />
First Vice President - Finance, Economics & Planning: Mr Sergei Kukura Finance<br />
First Vice President - Exploration & Production: Mr Ravil Maganov General Management<br />
Head of Main Division - Human Resources: Mr Anatoly Moskalenko<br />
First Vice President - Refining, Marketing & Distribution: Mr Vladimir Nekrasov<br />
Vice-President, Head of <strong>the</strong> Main Division of General Affairs: Mr Anatoly Barkov<br />
Vice-President, Head of <strong>the</strong> Main Division of Supplies and Sa: Mr Valery Subbotin<br />
VP, Head of Strategic Development & Investment Analysis: Mr Leonid Fedun<br />
Vice-President, Head of <strong>the</strong> Main Technical Division: Mr Dzhevan Cheloyants<br />
Vice-President, Head of <strong>the</strong> Main Division of Oil and Gas Pro: Mr Vladimir Mulyak<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1993<br />
No of Employees: 150000<br />
Business Activity<br />
LUKOIL Oil Company (Russia) holds over 19.3 bn barrels of <strong>oil</strong> equivalent in proven<br />
reserves, <strong>the</strong> third largest private <strong>oil</strong> company in <strong>the</strong> world in terms of reserves. The bulk<br />
of <strong>the</strong> company’s exploration and production assets are located in Western Siberia, with<br />
smaller reserves in European Russia, Timan Pechora and <strong>the</strong> North Caspian regions.<br />
Internationally <strong>the</strong> company has refining assets in <strong>the</strong> Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria,<br />
and retail networks in <strong>the</strong> US, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Lithuania, Latvia,<br />
Estonia, Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Manufacturing<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Natural Gas<br />
Oil/Petroleum<br />
Distribution/Transport/Transmission<br />
Exploration/Extraction<br />
Refining/Processing<br />
Suppliers<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
Mitsubishi Corporation<br />
Avrora Business park<br />
4/F, 7 Building 2<br />
Sagovnichskaya<br />
Moscow<br />
115035<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 961 2122<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 961 2127<br />
Website: www.mitsubishicorp.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Finance Director: Mr Akira Oida<br />
Administration Director: Mr Nishigori Taku<br />
General Manager: Mr Nakavato Makoto<br />
Head of Chemicals: Mr Tsukui Manabu<br />
Head of Information Technology: Mr Vladimir Aimetinov<br />
Human Resources Manager: Mrs Ekaterina Mihesilova<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1968<br />
Business Activity<br />
Mitsubishi Corporation (Russia) provides services to <strong>the</strong> energy sector. The company<br />
recently carried out a feasibility study on <strong>the</strong> reduction of carbon-dioxide emissions at <strong>the</strong><br />
Konakovo Power Station, located in a Moscow suburb. This was in co-operation with The<br />
Kansai Electric Power Inc (Japan). The company is also developing sources of liquefied<br />
natural <strong>gas</strong> in Russia. Mitsubishi has offices in Moscow and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Energy/Utilities<br />
Services<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Chemicals<br />
Petrochemicals<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Japan<br />
Subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation, Japan<br />
MOL-Russ<br />
Bulding 3, 9/F<br />
Kosmodamianskaya Naberezhnaya, 52<br />
Moscow<br />
115054<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 967 6805<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 967 6806<br />
Email: info@rus.mol.hu<br />
Website: www.mol.hu<br />
Key presonnel<br />
General Manager: Mr Gabor Gyulai<br />
Office Manager: Ms Maria Tatarnikova<br />
Finance Manager: Ms Laura Babaeva<br />
Head of Human Resources: Miss Anna Belyaeva<br />
Head of Information Technology: Mr Eugene Prokoshev<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Hungary<br />
Subsidiary of MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyrt, Hungary<br />
PetroAlliance Services Company Limited<br />
Narodnogo Opolcheniya ul d 40/3<br />
Moscow<br />
123298<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 797 9393<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 797 9397<br />
Email: pas@petroal.ru<br />
Website: www.petroal.ru<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Finance Director: Miss Marina Solovyeva<br />
Human Resources Manager: Mrs Anna Ermilova<br />
Chief Accountant: Mrs Irina Dorina<br />
Head of Information Technology: Mr Arkady Kochurov<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1995<br />
Business Activity<br />
PetroAlliance Services Company Limited (Russia) provides seismic, wireline logging and<br />
perforating, directional drilling, pumping, integrated project management, and information<br />
management and IT-related services to both Russian and international <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong><br />
operators.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Machinery/Equipment<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
Affiliated with Schlumberger Ltd, USA<br />
Russian Petroleum Investor (RPI)<br />
Entrance 3, Office 1403-A<br />
12 Krasnopresnenskaya Naberezhnaya<br />
Moscow<br />
123610<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 778 4597<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 778 9332<br />
Email: moscow@rpi-inc.com<br />
Website: www.rpi-inc.com<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Services<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
USA<br />
Shell East Europe Company Ltd<br />
ul Smolnaya, 24<br />
12/F, Meridian Business Center<br />
Moscow<br />
125445<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 258 6900<br />
Fax: +7 (501) 258 6920<br />
Website: www.shell.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
General Manager: Mr Yacek Dziembaj<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Business Activity<br />
Shell East Europe Company Ltd (Russia) sells <strong>oil</strong> products and chemicals.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Chemicals<br />
LPG<br />
Lubes<br />
Petrochemicals<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell plc, Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands<br />
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Shell Exploration & Production Services (RF) BV<br />
Novinsky Boulevard 31<br />
Moscow<br />
123242<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 792 3550<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 792 3553<br />
Email: customersupport@shell.com<br />
Website: www.shell.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
General Director: Mr Christopher Finlayson General Management<br />
Public Affairs Manager: Mr Maxim Shoob General Management<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Business Activity<br />
Shell Exploration & Production Services (RF) BV (Russia) explores and produces<br />
hydrocarbon resources and associated infrastructure and pipeline projects. Shell Global<br />
Solutions is also based at <strong>the</strong> above Moscow office and provides a consultancy service to<br />
corporate clients.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Exploration<br />
Manufacture<br />
Exploration/Extraction<br />
Recycling/Treatment<br />
Refining/Processing<br />
Services<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell plc, Ne<strong>the</strong>rlands<br />
Sibir Energy plc<br />
31 Novinsky Boulevard, 6/F<br />
Moscow<br />
123242<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 790 7840<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 790 7831<br />
Email: information@sibirenergy.com<br />
Website: www.sibirenergy.com<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Business Activity<br />
Sibir Energy plc (Russia) is an independent <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> production company with a pure<br />
Russian focus as 100% of its reserves and crude <strong>oil</strong> production comes from <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong>-rich<br />
Khanty Mansiysk Region in Western Siberia.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Subsidiary of Sibir Energy plc, United Kingdom<br />
Stat<strong>oil</strong> Russia<br />
2, Block 2, Paveletskaya Square<br />
Moscow<br />
115054<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 967 3818<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 967 3824<br />
Website: www.stat<strong>oil</strong>hydro.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Governmental Affiairs Director: Mr Alexander Levshov Senior Management<br />
Business Development Manager: Mr Evgeny Borisov<br />
Finance Manager: Mr Michal Kolodziejczyk<br />
Asset Manager: Mr Per Kjaernes<br />
Head of Industrial Relations: Mr Benedikt Henriksen<br />
Head of Operations: Mr Bjorn Ingar Tollefsen<br />
Exploration Manager: Mr John K Milne<br />
Public Affairs Manager: Mrs Natalia Krasilnikova<br />
Human Resources Director: Mr Aslak Sviland<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1991<br />
No of Employees: 30<br />
Business Activity<br />
Stat<strong>oil</strong> (Russia) specialises in <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> exploration and production, but also has<br />
interests in related products, such as motor fuels and lubricants. The company has five<br />
service stations in <strong>the</strong> Murmansk region, which are owned and operated by Stat<strong>oil</strong> Nefto.<br />
In <strong>the</strong> longer term, <strong>the</strong> company hopes to have ten service stations on <strong>the</strong> Kola peninsula<br />
in north-western Russia. Subsidiary of Stat<strong>oil</strong> ASA (Norway).<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Transport<br />
Natural Gas<br />
Oil/Petroleum<br />
Exploration/Extraction<br />
Refining/Processing<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Norway<br />
Subsidiary of Stat<strong>oil</strong>-Den Norske Stats Oljeselskap AS, Norway<br />
Surgutnefte<strong>gas</strong><br />
Kukuevitskogo ul, d. 1<br />
Surgut<br />
Tyumen<br />
628400<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (346) 242 6133<br />
Fax: +7 (346) 242 6494<br />
Email: secret_b@surgutnefte<strong>gas</strong>.ru<br />
Website: www.surgutnefte<strong>gas</strong>.ru<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1993<br />
Business Activity<br />
Surgutnefte<strong>gas</strong> (Russia) is <strong>the</strong> country’s third largest upstream <strong>oil</strong> producer, producing<br />
approximately 13% of <strong>the</strong> country’s total output.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
Tatneft JSC<br />
75, Lenin Street<br />
Almetyevsk<br />
Tatarstan<br />
423450<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (855) 337 1111<br />
Fax: +7 (8553) 376 151<br />
Email: tnr@tatneft.ru<br />
Website: www.tatneft.ru<br />
Key presonnel<br />
CEO: Mr Shafagat Fakhrazovich Takhautdinov<br />
Deputy General Director: Mr Vladimir Pavlovich Lavushchenko General Management<br />
Deputy General Director & Chief Geologist: Mr Rais Salikhovich Khisamov General<br />
Management<br />
First Deputy General Director & Head of Crude & Oil Products: Mr Nail Ulfatovich<br />
Maganov<br />
First Deputy General Director - Production: Mr Nail Gabdulbarievich Ibraghimov<br />
Finance Director: Mr Evgeny Tikhturov<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1950<br />
No of Employees: 74858<br />
Business Activity<br />
Tatneft JSC (Russia) is active in <strong>the</strong> upstream and downstream sectors of <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong><br />
industry. The company has 5.5bn barrels of proved <strong>oil</strong> reserves, located in <strong>the</strong> Republic of<br />
Tatarstan and produces around 8% of Russia’s total crude output.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Oil/Petroleum<br />
Exploration/Extraction<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
Technological Solution<br />
Naberezhnaya Obvodnogo Canala 14<br />
Sankt-Peterburg<br />
St Petersburg<br />
192019<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (812) 365 4406<br />
Fax: +7 (812) 365 4407<br />
Email: infost@quantum.ru<br />
Website: www.technosol.ru<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
United Kingdom<br />
Distributor for BP plc, United Kingdom<br />
TNK-BP<br />
1 Arbat Street<br />
Moscow<br />
119019<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 777 7707<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 777 7708<br />
Email: company@tnk-bp.com<br />
Website: www.tnk-bp.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Vice President - Strategy & New Business Development: Mr Stanislav Miroshnik General<br />
Management<br />
Vice President - Technology: Mr Francis Sommer<br />
Acting Managing Director: Mr Mihail Fridman<br />
Executive Director: Mr Herman Han<br />
Executive Director: Mr Victor Vekselberg<br />
Operations Director: Mr Bill Schreider<br />
Finance Director: Mr Jonathan Miuir<br />
Business Assurance Director: Mr Anatoly Temkin<br />
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Russia Oil & Gas Competitive Intelligence <strong>Report</strong> 2010<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 2003<br />
No of Employees: 113000<br />
Business Activity<br />
TNK-BP (Russia) was formed by UK-based <strong>oil</strong> major BP and <strong>the</strong> Russian financial<br />
companies Alfa Group and Access-Renova (AAR), <strong>the</strong> owners of TNK, after <strong>the</strong>y agreed<br />
to a US$6.35bn merger of <strong>the</strong>ir Russian businesses. The new 50:50 joint venture, TNK-BP<br />
is <strong>the</strong> country’s third and <strong>the</strong> world’s tenth largest private sector producer of <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong>.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
USA<br />
Joint venture with Alfa Group, Russia<br />
Joint venture with BP plc, United Kingdom<br />
Total Moscow<br />
21, 1st Tverskaya Yamskaya Street<br />
Moscow<br />
125047<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 228 6200<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 228 6201<br />
Website: www.total.com<br />
Key presonnel<br />
General Director: Mr Pierre Nerguararian<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1989<br />
Business Activity<br />
Total Moscow (Russia) is involved in <strong>the</strong> exploration and production of <strong>oil</strong> and chemical<br />
products. The group companies Elf Lubricants Russia and Bostik Findley Russia are also<br />
represented in Russia. Total operates <strong>the</strong> Kharyaga project in Russia’s nor<strong>the</strong>rn Timan-<br />
Pechora province, which is <strong>the</strong> country’s first onshore production-sharing project. The<br />
Kharyaga project is being developed jointly by Total (50%), Norway’s Norsk Hydro (40%)<br />
and <strong>the</strong> local Nenetsk Oil Co (10%).<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Petrochemicals<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Chemicals<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
France<br />
Subsidiary of Total SA, France<br />
UGS<br />
World Trade Center<br />
Krasnopresnenskaja Naberezhnaya 12<br />
Office 507<br />
Moscow<br />
123610<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 967 0774<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 967 0775<br />
Website: www.ugs.com<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: n/a<br />
Business Activity<br />
The mainline <strong>gas</strong> pipes forming Russia’s Unified Gas Transportation System (UGS) are<br />
owned by Gazprom. USG, <strong>the</strong> largest <strong>gas</strong> transportation system in <strong>the</strong> world, is over<br />
153,300 km long, has 263 compressor stations along <strong>the</strong> way and <strong>gas</strong>-compressor<br />
units with 44.2 million kW aggregate power. Gazprom controls over 200 regional<br />
<strong>gas</strong> distributors serving over 430,000 km of transportation pipes (or 80% of <strong>the</strong> total)<br />
nationwide, supplying natural <strong>gas</strong> to 80,000 cities and rural communities across Russia.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
Wintershall Holding AG<br />
ul Namjotkina 16, Hotel-Complex<br />
Office 706<br />
Moscow<br />
117997<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 719 8689<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 719 8689<br />
Email: info@wintershall.com<br />
Website: www.wintershall.de<br />
Key presonnel<br />
President: Mr Reinier Zele<br />
Head of Representative Office: Mr Jurgen Moepert<br />
HR Manager: Mrs Oksana Golovchenko<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1994<br />
Business Activity<br />
Wintershall Holding AG (Russia) is involved in <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> exploration and production.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
Natural Gas<br />
Oil/Petroleum<br />
Refining/Processing<br />
Trade<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Germany<br />
Representative Office for Wintershall AG, Germany<br />
Zarubezhneft Joint Stock Company<br />
Building 1, 9/1/1 Armiansky Pereulok<br />
Moscow<br />
101990<br />
Russia<br />
Tel: +7 (495) 748 6500<br />
Fax: +7 (495) 748 6505<br />
Email: nestro@nestro.ru<br />
Website: www.nestro.ru<br />
Key presonnel<br />
Chairman: Mr Sergey Shmatko<br />
General Director: Mr Nikolay Brunich<br />
Marketing Manager: Mr Alexey Hodakov<br />
local statistics<br />
Established: 1967<br />
No of Employees: 260<br />
Business Activity<br />
Zarubezhneft (Russia) is <strong>the</strong> leading foreign economic enterprise in <strong>the</strong> <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong><br />
industry in <strong>the</strong> country. The priority fields of activities lie in <strong>the</strong> development and<br />
implementation of complex <strong>oil</strong> and <strong>gas</strong> programmes and projects abroad, covering all<br />
stages from exploration to facilitation of <strong>oil</strong> fields on land and offshore.<br />
Industry Classification<br />
Oil & Gas<br />
nationality/trade afiliation<br />
Russia<br />
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