Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation
Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation
-56- A Budgetary Analysis of Cadre Figure 3.1—Sensitivity of Average Long-Run Cost Savings from Cadre Forces to Frequency of Wars $16 Cadre Cost Savings (billions) $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 +6 BCTs +9 BCTs +18 BCTs CadreMix $2 $0 0% 17% 33% 50% 67% 83% 100% Frequency of War Replacing AC and RC units with cadre units provides larger cost savings the less frequently wars occur. When wars are more frequent, cadre units provide lower savings because they are mobilized for a larger fraction of the time. In the extreme case, when wars occur 100 percent of the time, cadre units still reduce costs because not all cadre units are mobilized during the first years of a thirty-year war. Cadre units are recruited and trained incrementally during the first years of a war. This is why there is a knee in the curve for each of the cadre augmented forces. When wars are short (infrequent), there is no variation in the cost savings from cadre because cadre units are not mobilized in these wars. 64 As wars become longer (more frequent), the cost savings from cadre decrease as cadre units are mobilized for a larger and larger percentage of wartime. 65 The cost savings from cadre decrease at a higher rate for larger cadre forces because while only a small percentage of ____________ 64 We assume a one-year deliberation delay in activation. This means that no cadre units are mobilized in the first year of a war. 65 See Appendix A for a graph of the relationship between percentage of time cadre units are mobilized in wartime and the length (frequency) of wars.
-57- A Budgetary Analysis of Cadre cadre units are mobilized during short wars, as wars get longer, all cadre units are mobilized for a larger fraction of the time. In the limit, if we considered a time horizon longer than 30 years, the cost savings from all cadre augmented forces would go to zero when wars occur 100 percent of the time because the fraction of time cadre units are mobilized during wartime will approach 100 percent. 66 It is very unlikely that wars will occur near 100 percent of the time in the future. It is more reasonable to assume that wars might occur somewhere between one-sixth and onehalf of the time. 67 Over this range, the annual cost savings are summarized in Table 3.1. Table 3.1—Sensitivity of Average Long-Run Annual Savings from Cadre Forces to Frequency of Wars Annual Savings Force 17% War 33% War 50% War + 6 BCTs $5 billion $4 billion $3 billion + 9 BCTs $7 billion $6 billion $5 billion +18 BCTs $15 billion $13 billion $10 billion CadreMix $13 billion $11 billion $9 billion When wars occur 15 percent of the time, the cadre expansions of six, nine, and 18 BCTs reduce annual costs by $5, $7, and $15 billion while the CadreMix force reduces annual costs by $13 billion. When wars occur fifty percent of the time, expanding the force by six, nine, and 18 cadre BCTs reduces annual costs by $3, $5, and $10 billion and the CadreMix force reduces annual costs by $9 billion. Over this range of estimates for the frequency of ____________ 66 This explains why the slope of the cost savings lines is larger for larger cadre forces. A larger cadre force saves more money when wars occur zero percent of the time, but when wars occur 100 percent of the time, all cadre forces provide the same (zero) savings in the limit. Therefore, it must be the case that the rate of cost savings reductions is higher for larger cadre forces. In Figure 3.1, the cost savings are not equal (or zero) when wars occur 100 percent of the time because of the thirty-year time horizon we chose to examine. If we considered a longer time horizon, the savings would be close to equal (zero) for all cadre forces. 67 This is a sixty percent increase/reduction in the frequency of wars from the Doyle and Gotz estimate. Although it is impossible for anyone to predict the frequency of future wars, it seems reasonable to assume that wars will not become more than sixty percent more/less frequent in the future.
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-56- A Budgetary Analysis of <strong>Cadre</strong><br />
Figure 3.1—Sensitivity of Average Long-Run Cost Savings from <strong>Cadre</strong> Forces to<br />
Frequency of Wars<br />
$16<br />
<strong>Cadre</strong> Cost Savings (billions)<br />
$14<br />
$12<br />
$10<br />
$8<br />
$6<br />
$4<br />
+6 BCTs<br />
+9 BCTs<br />
+18 BCTs<br />
<strong>Cadre</strong>Mix<br />
$2<br />
$0<br />
0% 17% 33% 50% 67% 83% 100%<br />
Frequency of War<br />
Replacing AC and RC units with cadre units provides larger cost savings the less<br />
frequently wars occur. When wars are more frequent, cadre units provide lower savings<br />
because they are mobilized for a larger fraction of the time. In the extreme case, when wars<br />
occur 100 percent of the time, cadre units still reduce costs because not all cadre units are<br />
mobilized during the first years of a thirty-year war. <strong>Cadre</strong> units are recruited and trained<br />
incrementally during the first years of a war. This is why there is a knee in the curve for each<br />
of the cadre augmented forces. When wars are short (infrequent), there is no variation in the<br />
cost savings from cadre because cadre units are not mobilized in these wars. 64 As wars<br />
become longer (more frequent), the cost savings from cadre decrease as cadre units are<br />
mobilized for a larger and larger percentage of wartime. 65 The cost savings from cadre<br />
decrease at a higher rate for larger cadre forces because while only a small percentage of<br />
____________<br />
64 We assume a one-year deliberation delay in activation. This means that no cadre units are mobilized in the<br />
first year of a war.<br />
65 See Appendix A for a graph of the relationship between percentage of time cadre units are mobilized in<br />
wartime and the length (frequency) of wars.
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