Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation

-32- A Budgetary Analysis of Cadre
Figure 1.2—Cadre Mobilization Timeline
As discussed earlier, we assume that there would be a one-year “decisional delay”
after the beginning of the war (D-day) until cadre units are prepared for deployment. 16 After
this delay, we assume it would take four months to fill and 20 months to train one BCT for a
total delay of 36 months until the first cadre unit is ready to deploy. In this paper, we assume
that cadre units are filled by increasing recruiting in wartime. Therefore, every four months
we fill one cadre unit and begin to fill the next one. Under this assumption, three new BCTs
would be ready to deploy each year. 17 Other methods of filling cadre units such as IRR
activation and offering RC personnel bonuses to serve in cadre units would create a different
dynamic. In the case of IRR activation, cadre units would be filled immediately since IRR
personnel can be activated all at once. 18 We find in Paper II of this dissertation that the IRR
could provide about 44,000 junior personnel in wartime. This is large enough to fill out
about seven cadre BCTs. Any larger cadre force would also have to rely on increased
recruiting. In the case of RC bonuses, cadre units could also be filled immediately because
bonuses could be offered immediately after activation of the cadre unit. Whether or not
these units would also need to rely on increased recruiting would depend on the number of
junior reservists who would accept a bonus to serve in cadre units.
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16 Recent American experience suggests that after a build-up and intensive war phase of three to nine months,
some conflicts roll over to stabilization (e.g., Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Korea) and others result in simple
withdrawal of almost all forces (e.g., First Gulf War, Granada, Panama). This one year decisional delay allows
delaying the decision as to whether to activate cadre units until the occupation/stabilization decision is made.
17 See Paper II for a discussion of the feasibility of increasing end-strength to fill out cadre units mobilizing at a
rate of three BCTs per year.
18 However, IRR refresher training capacity may constrain this number.