Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation

-28- A Budgetary Analysis of Cadre
1.3.1—Frequency of War
The difference between wartime and peacetime in the analyses in this paper is the
need for “reserve” units (RC, cadre). The frequency of war measures the percentage of time
that RC and cadre units are needed. We distinguish here between need and mobilization
because RC and cadre units are not mobilized for all years of a war. Cadre units mobilize in
wartime following a delay, after which they are mobilized for the remainder of the war. RC
units only mobilize one year in six during wartime. Estimating how frequently reserve forces
would be needed requires thinking carefully about when RC and cadre units would be
mobilized. In this paper, we assume that these units are mobilized only if the requirement
for deployed forces surges for a sustained period of time above the level at which the AC
can sustain when rotated at 1:2. 11 If the requirement surges only for a short period (less than
one year), AC units in the ARFORGEN “ready” pool can surge to meet the requirement
without the need to mobilize reserve units. However, if the requirement stays at a higher
level beyond one year, RC and cadre units would be needed and mobilized. It is likely that
cadre units will be mobilized for some wars in which they are not deployed and that cadre
units will not be immediately demobilized at the end of each war. While our baseline
frequency of war estimate includes both short and long wars, our analysis does not include
costs for demobilization and therefore overestimates the cost savings from a cadre
augmented force. 12
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11 For instance, a force with 48 AC BCTs can sustain 16 deployed BCTs at 1:2. If the requirement for deployed
forces surged above 16 BCTs for more than one year then RC and cadre BCTs would be mobilized.
12 Paper II finds that the cost of separation bonuses could reduce the cost savings from a cadre augmented
force by 15 percent. The cost savings could be reduced even further if the demobilization process takes many
years.