Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation

-15- A Budgetary Analysis of Cadre
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Figures .................................................................................................................................................17
Tables...................................................................................................................................................19
1. Introduction..............................................................................................................................21
1.1 —Conceptualizing a Cadre Unit..................................................................................21
1.1.1 —Peacetime Cadre Units .....................................................................................22
1.1.2 —Wartime Cadre Units ........................................................................................23
1.2 —Definitions..................................................................................................................25
1.2.1 —Cost .....................................................................................................................25
1.2.2 —Military Risk .......................................................................................................26
1.2.3 —Unit of Analysis.................................................................................................27
1.3 —Assumptions...............................................................................................................27
1.3.1 —Frequency of War..............................................................................................28
1.3.2 —Peacetime Cost ..................................................................................................29
1.3.3 —Rotation Guidance and Deviation..................................................................30
1.3.4 —Readiness ............................................................................................................31
1.4 —Modeling .....................................................................................................................33
1.4.1 —The Long War Assignment Model (LWAM)................................................33
1.4.2 —Length of Wars..................................................................................................34
1.4.3 —Deterministic Force Demand..........................................................................35
1.5 —Outline ........................................................................................................................35
2. Cadre Cost/Risk Tradeoffs....................................................................................................37
2.1 —Expanding the Force.................................................................................................37
2.1.1 —Rethinking the 2007 Expansion......................................................................38
2.1.2 —Rethinking Further Expansions ......................................................................41
2.2 —Changing the Mix of the Force ...............................................................................44
2.3 —Other Measures of Military Risk .............................................................................48
2.4 —Relative Size of Cost Savings from Cadre..............................................................53
3. Frequency of Wars...................................................................................................................55
4. Peacetime Cost Estimates.......................................................................................................59
4.1 —Cadre Peacetime Cost ...............................................................................................59
4.2 —RC Peacetime Cost....................................................................................................61
5. Willingness to Stress the AC while Cadre Units Mobilize.................................................63
5.1 —Strict Adherence to Rotation Guidance.................................................................63
5.2 —Incrementally Relaxing Adherence to Rotation Guidance..................................65
5.2.1 —The Cadre Force Optimizer ............................................................................66
5.2.2 —Breaking Rotation Guidance ...........................................................................66
6. Future Rotation Guidance......................................................................................................71
6.1 —AC Rotation Guidance .............................................................................................71
6.1.1 —Using the AC More Intensively.......................................................................72