Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation

-252- An Operational Analysis of Cadre
C.1.2—Calculating Effects of Increasing Promotion Rates
In Chapter Two of this paper, we use the output from the Markov Promotion Model
to calculate the number of officers per BCT that could be procured during wartime by
increasing promotion rates and/or decreasing promotion intervals. To do this, we first use
the Markov Promotion Model to calculate the force distribution after four periods under a
base promotion policy (R 1 ). 177 Then, we calculate the force distribution after n periods under
a wartime promotion policy (R 2 ). We subtract the results of the base policy from the
increased policy (R 2 -R 1 ) to determine the increase in officers/NCOs in each grade. However,
not all officers/NCOs are assigned to BCTs; many are assigned to non-combat units
(Combat Support [CS], Combat Service Support [CSS], or Echelon above Division [EAD])
or to the institutional army (Table of Distribution and Allowances [TDA] units). To calculate
the number of extra officers/NCOs that would be available for BCTs, we calculated the
ratio of officers/NCOs in BCTs to total officers/NCOs and multiplied the total increase in
officers/NCOs by this fraction for each grade. 178 We then calculated the percentage of
officers/NCOs that could be procured by increasing promotions by dividing the number of
officers available for BCTs in each grade by the number of officers needed for the 6, 9, and
18 BCT expansions and the CadreMix force. These results allowed us to determine the size
of a peacetime cadre unit that would rely on increased promotion rates to procure
officers/NCOs during wartime.
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177 Chapter Two discusses how we determined the details of the base and wartime promotion policies.
178 We calculated the number of officers/NCOs in BCTs using the infantry BCT design shown in Appendix A
and assuming that there are 42 BCTs with structures similar to an infantry BCT. See Section C.2 for more
details on this calculation.