Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation

-209- An Operational Analysis of Cadre
concern is that increasing recruiting now may make it harder to recruit in the future as you
enlist the potential recruits of tomorrow, today.
In order for a cadre augmented force to be attractive, one must believe that the
Army could achieve twice the 2008 expansion rate in wartime. One might think this could be
achievable in future wars if national support is stronger than for wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan, if expansion was started earlier in the war, or if the unemployment rate was
higher. Even under these favorable conditions, it seems unrealistic to assume that increased
recruiting alone could fill out cadre units at a rate of three BCTs per year. 120 Therefore, we
considered other sources of wartime manpower such as the IRR and maintaining a larger
RC. 121
5.2.3—Activating the Individual Ready Reserve
The IRR is another source of manpower that could be used to fill out cadre units. In
a 1990 report, the Congressional Budget Office proposed that cadre units be filled out
entirely by members of the IRR. 122 At that time, the IRR was much larger than it is in 2007
because the AC was larger and therefore more people were transitioning from active duty
with outstanding military obligations. 123 However, the IRR remains large enough that some
junior personnel could be activated to help fill out cadre units. Under the same assumptions
____________
120 However, Donnelly and Kagan (2008b) propose a ten-year expansion of ground forces at 30,000 personnel
per year. They argue that “a commitment to expansion, with the concomitant understanding that a larger force
is likely to be a less frequently deployed force , might well contribute to eased recruiting, as, even more, might a
call for service on the part of American political leaders of both parties.” [Donnelly and Kagan (2008b), p. 111]
121 While increased recruiting may not be able to fill out a cadre force at a rate of three BCTs per year, it
appears as though it could achieve a rate of one BCT per year (about the size of the 2007 expansion). At a rate
of one BCT per year, only the six and nine BCT expansions would activate all cadre units over the course of a
ten-year war. These forces would still reduce average long-run costs by about $4 billion annually.
122 CBO (1990)
123 In 1990, there were about 700,000 AC personnel in the army compared to about 500,000 as of 2007.
[O’Hanlon (2004)]