Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation

-157- An Operational Analysis of Cadre
similar to that in place as of 2005. 14 The 2005 promotion policy increased promotion rates at
each level and decreased promotion intervals for captain (42 to 36 months) and major (11 to
10 years). 15 Table 2.1 shows the promotion rates and intervals by rank for the base and
wartime officer promotion policies.
Table 2.1—Officer Promotion Rates and Intervals
Rank Base Wartime
Rate Interval Rate Interval
Captain 97% 42 mo. 98% 36 mo.
Major 93% 132 mo. 98% 120 mo.
Lt. Colonel 80% 60 mo. 89% 60 mo.
Colonel 55% 60 mo. 60% 60 mo.
Based on these two promotion policies, we calculated the percentage of officers that
would need to be retained in peacetime if we planned to fill the remaining slots with newly
promoted personnel. We performed this analysis using the Markov Promotion Model
described it Appendix C. We assume that promotion policies are changed immediately at the
beginning of the war and that all officers must be assigned to units two years after activation.
Table 2.2 shows the percentage of officers per BCT in each grade that would need to be
maintained in each peacetime cadre unit 16 for each cadre force analyzed in this dissertation. 17
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14 The base promotion policy is calculated from the historical average from FY2000 through FY2005. The
wartime promotion policy is derived from the promotion rates as of 2005, which increased, on average, five
percent from the historical average. [CRS (2006b), p. 9]
15 CRS (2006b), p. 10
16 This calculation assumes that only a percentage of new officers in each grade are available for service in
BCTs (the remaining would go to CS/CSS units or the institutional army). The percentage available for BCTs is
calculated by dividing the number of officers in BCTs in the force planned 2009 (officers per grade in a BCT
[U.S. Army Armor Center (2005)] times the number of planned BCTS [42]) by the total number of officers in
each grade planned for 2009 [Department of the Army (2007a)]. See Appendix C for more detail.
17 The number of new officers available per cadre BCT varies with the size of the cadre force. Smaller cadre
forces will have a higher number of officers per BCT while larger cadre forces will have a smaller number of
officers per BCT.