Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation

-105- A Budgetary Analysis of Cadre
In the analyses contained in this paper, we assume that wars last on average ten
years. Therefore, we set the time horizon of the LWAM to ten years (30 trimesters). For
each force and requirement, we then simulated the deployment and extracted the percentage
of AC units deployed with 24+, 20, 16, and 12 months at home. We then multiplied the
percentage of wartime deployments for each of these dwell times by the frequency of war (α)
to determine the percentage of AC units deployed with less than two years at home over the
long-term. Then, we calculated the percentage of units deployed with more than 24 months
at home over the long-term by multiplying the percentage of units deployed with 24+
months at home in wartime (calculated with the LWAM) by α and adding (1-α) to this value.
This is based on the assumption that during peacetime all AC units get a full two years (24+
months) at home. 131 These calculations are shown in Table A.6.
Table A.6—Generic AC Stress Calculations
Dwell Time (months)
12 16 20 24+
Wartime LWAM Data
(% of deployments)
A B C D
% Long Term
Deployments
α * A α * B α * C α * D + (1- α)
In Chapter Two, we assumed that wars occur 33 percent of the time. Table A.7
shows the calculations of AC stress for the CadreMix force.
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131 It is likely that AC units will have more than two years at home between deployments during peacetime.
Under ARFORGEN they would have at least two years at home.