Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation
Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation Considering a Cadre Augmented Army - RAND Corporation
-100- A Budgetary Analysis of Cadre soldier costs $100,000 per year. It is likely the actual cost is not exactly $100,000 120 , but the order of magnitude is correct, which is all that matters to calculate the magnitude of the cost savings from a cadre augmented force. Jaffe (2006) estimates the relative cost of a reserve soldier to an active duty soldier to be 28 percent. The following sections describe how we use this estimate to calculate the annual cost savings from trading AC and RC BCTs for cadre BCTs. Equipment costs are not considered in this paper, but are discussed in the second paper of this dissertation. A.2.1—The Cost of Trading AC BCTs for Cadre BCTs To calculate the annual cost of an AC BCT, we multiply the cost of an active duty soldier by the number of soldiers required to increase the size of the force by one BCT. The expansion of six BCTs required 65,000 personnel. This means expanding the force by one BCT requires 10,833 soldiers. The actual number of personnel assigned to a BCT is only around four thousand. 121 The remaining soldiers are required for support units such as Combat Support (CS) and Combat Service Support (CSS). The ratio of deployed combat forces to support forces is usually about 1:1.6. 122 This estimate is consistent with this ratio, though slightly higher. If we assume the number of soldiers needed to field and support a BCT is 10,833, then the annual cost of an AC BCT with support is $1.08 billion per year. ____________ 120 New York Times Editorial Board (2006) estimates the cost of an active duty soldier to be $150,000 and Jaffe (2006) estimates the cost to be $120,000. These higher estimates would lead to larger cost savings from a cadre augmented force. Donnelly and Kagan (2008b) estimate the cost of expanding the Army by one soldier to be $275,000, though this includes the costs of the army “raised, trained, and equipped according to its doctrine.” [Donnelly and Kagan (2008b), p. 140-141]. The costs in this paper do not include equipment. 121 See Appendix A of Paper II. 122 Williams (2001), p. 195, Fastabend (1997). The ratio of support to combat personnel in conflicts since World War I: World War II (1.7 to 1), Korean War (1.5 to 1), Vietnam War (1.8 to 1), Persian Gulf War (1.4 to 1). [CBO(1997), p. 10]
-101- A Budgetary Analysis of Cadre Other public sources have estimated the annual cost of an AC BCT at $1.2 billion. 123 Using the $1.08 billion estimate provides a conservative analysis of the cost savings from a cadre augmented force. In the body of this paper, we use this estimate for the cost of an AC BCT to calculate the cost savings from trading AC BCTs for cadre BCTs averaged over periods of peace and war and in peacetime. In Section A.1, we calculated that the average long-run cost of a cadre BCT in the +6 Cadre force when wars occur 33 percent of the time is 41 percent of an AC BCT. If an AC BCT costs $1.08 billion per year, then the average long-run cost of a cadre BCT in the +6 Cadre force is $443 million per year, $637 million less than an AC BCT. Therefore, trading six cadre BCT for six AC BCT reduces average long run cost by about $4 billion annually (6*$637 million). Under the same assumptions, the annual peacetime cost of a cadre BCT is $216 million, $864 million less than an AC BCT. Therefore, trading six AC BCTs for six cadre BCTs during peacetime reduces annual costs by about $5 billion (6*$864 million). Cost savings for other cadre for AC tradeoffs were calculated similarly. A.2.2—The Cost of Trading RC BCTs for Cadre BCTs In the main body of this report, we assumed that an RC BCT costs 28 percent of an AC BCT during peacetime. This is a rough estimate based on Jaffe (2006). Jaffe (2006) estimated the cost of an RC soldier to be 22 percent of an AC soldier in 2001 and 28 percent in 2006. This is in the middle of the range of previous estimates. Reischauer (1990) estimated that an Army National Guard heavy unit based in the United States costs 20 percent of an ____________ 123 New York Times Editorial Board (2006) and IISS (2007)
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-101- A Budgetary Analysis of <strong>Cadre</strong><br />
Other public sources have estimated the annual cost of an AC BCT at $1.2 billion. 123 Using<br />
the $1.08 billion estimate provides a conservative analysis of the cost savings from a cadre<br />
augmented force.<br />
In the body of this paper, we use this estimate for the cost of an AC BCT to<br />
calculate the cost savings from trading AC BCTs for cadre BCTs averaged over periods of<br />
peace and war and in peacetime. In Section A.1, we calculated that the average long-run cost<br />
of a cadre BCT in the +6 <strong>Cadre</strong> force when wars occur 33 percent of the time is 41 percent<br />
of an AC BCT. If an AC BCT costs $1.08 billion per year, then the average long-run cost of<br />
a cadre BCT in the +6 <strong>Cadre</strong> force is $443 million per year, $637 million less than an AC<br />
BCT. Therefore, trading six cadre BCT for six AC BCT reduces average long run cost by<br />
about $4 billion annually (6*$637 million). Under the same assumptions, the annual<br />
peacetime cost of a cadre BCT is $216 million, $864 million less than an AC BCT.<br />
Therefore, trading six AC BCTs for six cadre BCTs during peacetime reduces annual costs<br />
by about $5 billion (6*$864 million). Cost savings for other cadre for AC tradeoffs were<br />
calculated similarly.<br />
A.2.2—The Cost of Trading RC BCTs for <strong>Cadre</strong> BCTs<br />
In the main body of this report, we assumed that an RC BCT costs 28 percent of an<br />
AC BCT during peacetime. This is a rough estimate based on Jaffe (2006). Jaffe (2006)<br />
estimated the cost of an RC soldier to be 22 percent of an AC soldier in 2001 and 28 percent<br />
in 2006. This is in the middle of the range of previous estimates. Reischauer (1990) estimated<br />
that an <strong>Army</strong> National Guard heavy unit based in the United States costs 20 percent of an<br />
____________<br />
123 New York Times Editorial Board (2006) and IISS (2007)