The case for Centres of Excellence in sustainable building design
The case for Centres of Excellence in sustainable building design
The case for Centres of Excellence in sustainable building design
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Conclusion<br />
<strong>The</strong> analysis shows that, based on the graduates from <strong>Centres</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Excellence</strong> be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
able to abate carbon dioxide emissions at even a marg<strong>in</strong>ally lower cost than<br />
current practice achieves, establish<strong>in</strong>g the centres will have a significant social<br />
benefit. Quantification <strong>of</strong> other benefits, such as research, not evaluated here, is<br />
likely to substantially <strong>in</strong>crease the social benefits <strong>of</strong> the centres.<br />
<strong>The</strong> key assumption underly<strong>in</strong>g the proposal <strong>for</strong> <strong>Centres</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Excellence</strong> is that<br />
graduates from the centres will be able to achieve the carbon abatement<br />
demanded from the <strong>in</strong>dustry at lower cost. This will be achieved through better<br />
tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> build<strong>in</strong>g eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g physics allow<strong>in</strong>g the graduates to save energy<br />
through passive <strong>design</strong> measures utilis<strong>in</strong>g the low-cost elements <strong>of</strong> construction<br />
such as the build<strong>in</strong>g frame and fabric. <strong>The</strong> energy sav<strong>in</strong>g thus achieved reduces<br />
the need <strong>for</strong> <strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong> microgeneration technology to mitigate energy<br />
consumption. Thus the carbon abatement is achieved at lower <strong>in</strong>vestment cost.<br />
This analysis has shown that a graduate from the Centre <strong>of</strong> <strong>Excellence</strong> only<br />
needs to achieve abatement at a cost <strong>of</strong> £5.30 per tCO2 below the bus<strong>in</strong>ess as<br />
usual approach to achiev<strong>in</strong>g net benefit to the UK economy despite the higher<br />
costs <strong>of</strong> operat<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>Centres</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Excellence</strong>. <strong>The</strong> marg<strong>in</strong>al abatement costs <strong>of</strong><br />
the techniques that will be applied by graduates from <strong>Centres</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Excellence</strong> are<br />
typically valued at orders <strong>of</strong> magnitude greater sav<strong>in</strong>g than the breakeven figure<br />
<strong>for</strong> this project.<br />
Given the numbers <strong>of</strong> graduates that could be educated by just four <strong>Centres</strong><br />
<strong>of</strong> <strong>Excellence</strong> and the ongo<strong>in</strong>g nature <strong>of</strong> carbon abatement this project has<br />
potential to deliver very significant value <strong>for</strong> the UK economy over time scale<br />
commensurate with our needs to reduce carbon emissions. <strong>The</strong> project has the<br />
potential to generate a net present value <strong>in</strong> excess <strong>of</strong> £1 billion by 2030 and <strong>in</strong><br />
excess <strong>of</strong> £6 billion if it cont<strong>in</strong>ues on the same basis to 2050.<br />
<strong>The</strong> results presented <strong>in</strong> the model here are not highly sensitive to most values<br />
used and so it can be taken as a reliable <strong>in</strong>dication that the <strong>Centres</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Excellence</strong><br />
will have a last<strong>in</strong>g and significant social benefit.<br />
<strong>The</strong>re are, however, some key aspects <strong>of</strong> the study that should be noted.<br />
It must be remembered that this is not a full CBA <strong>of</strong> the project, nor is it a full<br />
economic or f<strong>in</strong>ancial analysis <strong>of</strong> all its aspects. Rather, it is a model to estimate<br />
certa<strong>in</strong> quantifiable benefits <strong>of</strong> eng<strong>in</strong>eers tra<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> build<strong>in</strong>g eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g<br />
physics. Specifically, it is used to estimate the benefit to society <strong>of</strong> hav<strong>in</strong>g carbon<br />
abated at the lowest possible cost. <strong>The</strong> key assumptions lie <strong>in</strong> the fram<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong><br />
the costs and, <strong>in</strong> particular, the benefits. We have assumed that the costs are<br />
primarily the tra<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g costs, and the social costs <strong>of</strong> keep<strong>in</strong>g build<strong>in</strong>g eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g<br />
physics graduates <strong>in</strong> employment are not so significant. This assumption seems<br />
reasonable, s<strong>in</strong>ce it is likely that people who have chosen to study eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g<br />
at a Centre <strong>of</strong> <strong>Excellence</strong> <strong>in</strong> Build<strong>in</strong>g Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g Physics would tend to want to<br />
work <strong>in</strong> such a field.<br />
<strong>The</strong> benefits to society are harder to quantify precisely. Instead <strong>of</strong> modell<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
total carbon saved, we have assumed that the carbon abatement would take<br />
place anyway but at a standard marg<strong>in</strong>al cost under a bus<strong>in</strong>ess as usual scenario,<br />
<strong>for</strong> example, non-specialists retr<strong>of</strong>itt<strong>in</strong>g houses or <strong>design</strong><strong>in</strong>g new build<strong>in</strong>gs, or<br />
<strong>in</strong>deed <strong>in</strong> CCS schemes <strong>for</strong> power plants. We have taken the MAC curve <strong>for</strong> the<br />
UK published by McK<strong>in</strong>sey (2007) and have weighted the build<strong>in</strong>g sector results<br />
to reflect what marg<strong>in</strong>al impact tra<strong>in</strong>ed build<strong>in</strong>g eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g physics graduates<br />
would be expected to have.<br />
66 <strong>The</strong> Royal Academy <strong>of</strong> Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g