The case for Centres of Excellence in sustainable building design

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cost, so that there is likely to be a net social gain due to the reduction in energy use over the lifetime of a building. We are not assuming an overall increase in carbon abatement, but rather that the carbon abatement continues happening at the same rate as the BAU scenario. None of the learning effects or the knock-on effects in academia, such as the benefits of an increased research base, are being quantified here. We model a fixed quantity of graduates leaving a fixed number of universities. We also model a fixed abatement ability of each graduate. Education costs We assume that the project consists of four Centres of Excellence, each with a graduating cohort of 60 engineering students and 150 architects. This analysis considers only the contribution to society of the engineering graduates who have benefited from an enhanced education in building physics and integrated design. Thus we are apportioning the full start-up cost of the centres over the numbers of engineering graduates. Over a five-year duration, the cost of running the four centres is £30 million. It is assumed that £10 million of this will fund research at the centres that would otherwise be funded and carried out elsewhere. This leaves an extra over cost of £20 million for teaching undergraduates at the four centres over five years or £4 million per year as the marginal cost of educating the graduates. Although the Centres are initially only funded for five years, they will continue to require the same operating costs throughout the analysis period and this is still a cost to the UK even though these future costs are likely to be met from industry and the undergraduates themselves as demand rises. We assume there are no marginal ongoing training costs after graduation as all engineers are expected to undertake continuing professional development. Employment costs We assume that the starting salary for a typical engineering graduate in the construction industry is £25,000 (BAU scenario) and there is a 10% premium on this for a graduate from a Centre of Excellence (project scenario), making the marginal cost £2,500 in the first full year of employment. We assume this difference decreases by 2% a year for five years until there is no premium and the marginal employment costs reach zero. We also assume that the base salary rises by 3% each year. This is shown in Table 1 below. Table 1: Employment costs per employee for the first 6 years. Year of employment BAU salary Project salary Marginal employment cost 1 £25,000 £27,500 £2,500 2 £25,750 £27,810 £2,060 3 £26,523 £28,114 £1,591 4 £27,318 £28,411 £1,093 5 £28,138 £28,700 £563 6 £28,982 £28,982 £0 After the fifth full year of employment, there are no additional employment costs. The graduate works six months of the year of graduation so received half the salary and pay rises do not come into play. 52 The Royal Academy of Engineering
Appendix 2 Additionally, it is assumed that 10% of graduates from the Centres of Excellence do not enter employment in a low carbon construction job, and the number of graduates in such employment decreases by 10% annually due to changes in job role or wastage from the profession. The modelling also assumes that there is sufficient demand in the industry for 90% of each year’s graduate output. Among the 10% of graduates modelled as leaving the industry each year, a good proportion will actually move into other jobs which will continue to contribute to carbon abatement, such as management, regulation, policymaking or training. However, we are unable to estimate the contribution that these people will continue to make and they are therefore excluded from future carbon abatement potential within the model. Numbers of graduates This analysis assumes that a Centre of Excellence grows to full capacity of 60 engineering undergraduates per year over the conception period of three years. It is further assumed that only 90% of graduating engineers will enter the profession and that there is an ongoing dropout rate of 10% per year thereafter. This dropout rate represents not only those engineers who choose to leave the industry, but also represents those who move into other job roles and therefore no longer directly deliver carbon abatement. Figure 1: Number of graduates actively working on carbon abatement projects. Based on the assumptions outlined above, a total of 7,128 graduates will enter the industry over the study period. Of these, 1,609 will still be engaged in carbon abatement projects in 2030 and a total of 2,093 in 2050. Abatement potential Figures for carbon abatement by practitioners have been compiled from data collected by CIBSE registered Low Carbon Consultants. CIBSE Low Carbon Consultants are experienced construction professionals who have undertaken specific training in carbon abatement techniques. As a requirement of continuing registration, Low Carbon Consultants must submit annual carbon returns detailing the projects worked on and the expected annual abatement from these The case for Centres of Excellence in sustainable building design 53
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Page 5 and 6: Foreword Foreword The demanding cli
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Page 39 and 40: References ONS. 2011a. Construction
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