BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
BPIE: Europe's buildings under the microscope - PU Europe
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Table 3C7 – Overall results to 2050<br />
Source: <strong>BPIE</strong> model<br />
Scenario 0 1A 1B 2 3 4<br />
Description Baseline Slow &<br />
Shallow<br />
Annual energy saving<br />
in 2050<br />
2050 saving as %<br />
of today<br />
Investment costs<br />
(present value)<br />
Savings (present<br />
value)<br />
Net saving (cost)<br />
to consumers<br />
Net saving (cost)<br />
to society - without<br />
externality<br />
Net saving (cost)<br />
to society - including<br />
externality<br />
Internal Rate of<br />
Return<br />
Fast decarbonisation<br />
Fast &<br />
Shallow<br />
Medium Deep Two- stage<br />
TWh/a 365 1,373 1,286 1,975 2,795 2,896<br />
% 9% 34% 32% 48% 68% 71%<br />
€bn 164 343 451 551 937 584<br />
€bn 187 530 611 851 1,318 1,058<br />
€bn 23 187 160 300 381 474<br />
€bn 1,116 4,512 4,081 6,451 8,939 9,908<br />
€bn 1,226 4,884 4,461 7,015 9,767 10,680<br />
IRR 10.1% 12.4% 11.5% 12.5% 11.8% 13.4%<br />
Annual CO 2<br />
saving in MtCO 2<br />
/a 742 821 814 868 932 939<br />
2050<br />
2050 CO 2<br />
saved<br />
% 71.7% 79.3% 78.6% 83.8% 89.9% 90.7%<br />
(% of 2010)<br />
CO 2<br />
abatement cost €/tCO 2<br />
-20 -74 -68 -103 -136 -151<br />
Slow decarbonisation<br />
Annual CO 2<br />
saving in MtCO 2<br />
/a 182 410 391 547 732 755<br />
2050<br />
2050 CO 2<br />
saved<br />
% 18% 40% 38% 53% 71% 73%<br />
(% of 2010)<br />
CO 2<br />
abatement cost €/tCO 2<br />
-89 -196 -185 -221 -238 -255<br />
Average annual net<br />
jobs generated<br />
M 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8<br />
It is clear that only two of <strong>the</strong> scenarios achieve <strong>the</strong> ambitious <strong>Europe</strong>an CO 2<br />
reduction targets as<br />
described by <strong>the</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>an Commission in its Roadmap 2050 paper. Scenarios 3 and 4, <strong>the</strong> deep and<br />
<strong>the</strong> two-stage scenario, achieve a CO 2<br />
reduction of around 90%, but only <strong>under</strong> <strong>the</strong> assumption that<br />
<strong>the</strong> power supply sector <strong>under</strong>goes a fast decarbonisation as well. Never<strong>the</strong>less, in both scenarios <strong>the</strong><br />
majority of CO 2<br />
savings are achieved through energy savings measures on <strong>the</strong> demand side.<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>’s <strong>buildings</strong> <strong>under</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>microscope</strong> | 119